Journal: Israel, Neo-Cons, Big Oil, Iraq, & Green

05 Energy, 08 Wild Cards, Analysis, Commerce, Commercial Intelligence, Earth Intelligence, Ethics, Government, Military, Strategy
Chuck Spinney

In my last blaster (here), I raised a question of whether the Israelis were trying to hijack the Green Lobby or whether they were ready for the rubber room.  This was made in response to a report by Jonathan Cook that contended Israel was greenwashing war on terror.  It turns out that I may have phrased this question in naive, simplistic terms, if my good friend Pierre Sprey (a justifiably well known weapons analyst, mathematician, and recording entrepreneur) is correct, Israel's motives for  trying to hijack the Green Lobby can be viewed in a larger, longer range context.  Below is his most interesting analysis of Israel's motives for greenwashing the war on terror: Chuck

—–[Comment by Pierre Sprey]—–

I totally agree that the currently faddish alternate energy sources are ludicrously uneconomical and, for the most part, environmentally harmful. The only alternate source that could almost completely supplant oil and that actually makes economic and environmental sense, natural gas, is currently among the most unfashionable.

Nevertheless, there's an important larger perspective to Israel's dead serious push to raise huge amounts of capital (guess where?) to produce non-oil based energy from trendy green sources in large enough quantities to reduce worldwide oil demand significantly.

That perspective is simple: unbeknownst to most, the absolute highest priority objective of Israeli foreign policy, from 1949 to today, has been to break the Seven Sisters oil cartel's stranglehold on world oil production in order to collapse the world price of oil. From Israel's point of view, that's a perfectly rational strategic objective–and, almost certainly, the only Israeli objective I know of that would be a major benefit to the world.

Continue reading “Journal: Israel, Neo-Cons, Big Oil, Iraq, & Green”

Journal: Military Medicine Up, Military Strategy Not…

05 Civil War, 07 Health, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, Government, Methods & Process, Military, Strategy
Marcus Aurelius

On Distant Battlefields, Survival Odds Rise Sharply

By ALAN CULLISON

Every war brings medical innovations, as horrific injuries force surgeons to come up with new ways to save lives. During the Civil War, doctors learned better ways to amputate limbs, and in World War I they developed the typhoid vaccine. World War II brought the mass use of penicillin, Korea and Vietnam the development of medical evacuation by helicopter.

Full Story Online

The lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan, medical experts say, are still emerging. One legacy is new ways to control bleeding before soldiers lapse into comas or their vital organs shut down. Thanks to new clotting agents, blood products and advanced medical procedures performed closer to the battlefield, wounded American soldiers are now surviving at a greater rate than in any previous war fought by the U.S.

The rising survival rate, now touching 95% for those who live long enough to get medical treatment, is in turn introducing new problems caring for patients with serious and chronic injuries, including multiple amputations and brain damage. The cost of treating such lasting injuries will be borne by the U.S. medical system for decades to come.

Continue reading “Journal: Military Medicine Up, Military Strategy Not…”

Journal: ClimateGate, Israel & Greenwashing Terror

03 Environmental Degradation, 05 Energy, 06 Genocide, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Collective Intelligence, Commerce, Commercial Intelligence, Government, Media
ClimateGate Rolling Update
Chuck Spinney

An excellent summary of the ongoing dispute over Global Warming.  Chuck.

Climate Catastrophe:A Superstorm for Global Warming Research

By Marco Evers, Olaf Stampf and Gerald Traufetter

Der Spiegel 1 April 2010

Plagued by reports of sloppy work, falsifications and exaggerations, climate research is facing a crisis of confidence. How reliable are the predictions about global warming and its consequences? And would it really be the end of the world if temperatures rose by more than the much-quoted limit of two degrees Celsius?

… are they ready for the Rubber Room or Both? My guess is the answer is “both.”  But read the attached article by Jonathan Cook and judge for yourself.  One thing that is becoming clear, however:  Global Warming can be used as a canonical fear to justify just about anything — from Obama's plan to resurrect the nuclear power industry (while at the same time, he punts on the nuc waste issue by caving into political pressure to close the Yucca Mountain waste depository, after spending $17 billion since the 1980s) to Israel's crackpot plan to win the so-called war on terror by impoverishing the petro-states via the weaning the industrial world off hydrocarbons (see below).  If you want to get a realistic idea of the size of the energy numbers as well as the socio-economic implications of the policy transformations implied by displacing the West's reliance on hydrocarbons, I urge you read my good friend Robert Bryce's important new book, Power Hungry: The Myths of Green Energy and the Real Fuels of the Future, Public Affairs Press, April 2010.  You do not have to agree with his specific recommendations to accept the value of his important work.

Chuck Spinney
Marmaris, Turkey

[archive under construction at http://chuckspinney.blogspot.com/ ]

Jonathan Cook, The Electronic Intifada, 30 March 2010

Journal: The Legal And Moral Issues Of Drone Use

02 Diplomacy, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Ethics, Government, Military
Berto Jongman Recommends...

March 30, 2010

The use of unmanned aircraft systems, or drones, to fight the Taliban and al-Qaida has increased sharply.

Text and Audio Online

The State Department's top lawyer, Harold Koh, has issued legal justification for targeted killings using drone strikes. But some civil liberties groups are critical of the decision.

NIGHTWATCH Extract: Europe Blows Turkey

08 Wild Cards

Germany-Turkey: The BBC reported today that German Chancellor Angela Merkel restated her belief that Turkey is not suitable for full European Union membership. She said that Turkey should not view negatively her offer of a “privileged partnership” – rather than full membership.

Turkey began negotiations to become a member of the EU in 2005, but France and Germany have vetoed membership, indefinitely. Merkel and Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan also disagreed about Iran, Cyprus and educating Turkish children in Germany in Turkish.

Germany is Turkey's biggest trading partner, its biggest foreign investor, its biggest source of tourist revenue, and nearly three million Turks live in Germany. Turkish law and legal procedure is derived from German legal practice and jurisprudence.

A point seldom made is that EU terms for Turkish membership included a commitment that the armed forces would abandon its practice of acting as guardian of the state’s secular legacy and promise to not overthrow the government. The General Staff has kept that promise, but the Erdogan government has exploited this EU entry condition to move Turkey towards an Islamist state. That is not a result the EU members intended.

Phi Beta Iota: This is a classic example of ignorant politicians who are not receiving proper 360 degree historically and culturally rooted intelligence (decision-support), making demands that are a cause of an easily anticipated effect.  Turkey has always been a hybrid “sick man of Europe” best honored for its buffer role among Europe, the Arabs, and the Persians. Turkey is a re-emergent force in the world.  The West has lost its mind, professionally speaking.

See also:

Journal: The Rise and Rise Further of Turkey (Along with the Collapse of Israel and the NeoCons)

Review: New Turkish Republic–Turkey As a Pivotal State in the Muslim World

Review: A Peace to End All Peace–The Fall of the Ottoman Empire and the Creation of the Modern Middle East

Review: The Second World–Empires and Influence in the New Global Order

Search: nato knowledge development handbook

08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Collective Intelligence, Cultural Intelligence, Government, IO Mapping, IO Multinational, IO Sense-Making, Non-Governmental, Threats, Threats/Topical

What an interesting search, thank you.  Here are some links that came up in a broader search that we import to Phi Beta Iota with a tip of the hat to the anonymous searcher.

Cross-Domain Collaboration Takes Center Stage at NATO Network-Enabled Capability (NNEC) Conference (Intelligence and Knowledge Development, March 12, 2010)

IMPLEMENTATION OF NATO EBAO DOCTRINE AND ITS EFFECTS ON OPERATIONAL STAFFS’ STRUCTURE AND FUNCTIONS by Cristophe MIDAN  Strategic Impact (Impact Strategic), issue: 4 / 2009, pages: 3954, on www.ceeol.com.

MCC Northwood Effects Based Approach to the Operational Planning Process, CDR J.L. Geiger, USN    N521 (Bottom line: Knowledge Development is OSINT outside of the IC combined with rotten and thin secret intelligence from Member states).

Model NATO 2009/2010 Handbook

Cody Burke, Freeing knowledge, telling secrets: Open source intelligence and development (Centre for East-West Cultural and Economic Studies, CEWCES Research Papers, Bond University, 2007)

Journal: Pentagon Strategy & Policy Oxymoron Squared?

02 China, 03 India, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 06 Russia, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Government, Military
Michèle Flournoy

Phi Beta Iota: We don't make this stuff up.  The Pentagon has no strategy because the U.S. Government has no strategy.  The National Security Council is managed by a General who emphasized getting along with the Chief of Naval Operation, never-mind leaving Marines wounded on the battlefield for lack of Naval Gunfire Support (NFS).

Join us in savoring what passes for a strategist and nominal policy making savant with the below headlines.

Below item is full text to avoid inconvenience.  It is followed by several linked  headlines that make quite clear the shallowness of the Pentagon strategy-policy pool.

Executive Summary: The gentle lady has no idea what the ten high-level threats to humanity are, nor does she care.  She's a place-holder for the disappointed John Hamre, and a token female at the top who goes with the flow.  She has neither any grasp nor any conceptual framework for actually creating grand strategy, harmonizing Whole of Government policies nor even–this really did surprise us–how many failed states there are in the world.

PBS March 27, 2010

Interview With Michele Flournoy, Under Secretary Of Defense For Policy

Charlie Rose (PBS), 1:00 A.M.

CHARLIE ROSE: The United States military is engaged around the world. It is withdrawing combat troops from Iraq as it builds up troops in Afghanistan. It is partnering with Pakistan in an aggressive counterterrorism campaign including drone attacks in the tribal areas. It’s working with the Yemeni government to counter a resurgent al Qaeda there. And U.S. troops are still in Haiti for the humanitarian relief efforts.

But the military has to do more than respond to the conflicts of the day. It must prepare for future wars, adoptive enemies and a shifting security environment.

The person at the Pentagon who spends the most time working on these issues is Michèle Flournoy. She is under secretary of defense for policy and the highest ranking female official in the Defense Department. I am very pleased to have her with me in the night studio at the Newseum in Washington.

Tell me what it is that you do at the Pentagon, how do you define this responsibility?

Continue reading “Journal: Pentagon Strategy & Policy Oxymoron Squared?”