Category: 05 Iran

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Chuck Spinney: Bill Polk Primer on Syria & Chemical Weapons

03 Environmental Degradation, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 05 Iran, 06 Russia, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Proliferation, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Terrorism, 10 Security, 10 Transnational Crime, 11 Society, Civil Society, Cultural Intelligence, Ethics, Extraterrestial Intelligence, Government, Military, Officers Call, Strategy
Chuck Spinney
Chuck Spinney

My friend Bill Polk, a well-known historian with extensive experience in the Middle East and Central Asia and author of many books on these areas, has written a backgrounder on how to make sense out of the Syrian chemical weapons issue.  He has given me permission to distribute it.  Herewith is his most interesting primer on the Syrian chemical weapons issue.

Chuck Spinney

Reflections on the Syrian Chemical Weapons Issue and Beyond

William R. Polk

September 15, 2013

1.The Variety of Weapons and Their characteristics
2 A Short History of Chemical Weapons
3 The Russian Intervention
4 Why the Syrians Have Accepted the Russian Proposal
5. The Prospects for Ridding The Area of Weapons of Mass Destruction
6 The Possibility of Ending the Civil War
7 Who Are the Insurgents and What do they Want?
8 Predictable Results of a Collapse of the Syrian State

Full essay below the line.

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NIGHTWATCH: Astounding Syrian Concessions Protect Israel — US Analysts Dull [Ignorant] — World Edges Away from Brink of WWIII — NIGHTWATCH Tutorial for Dull Analysts

03 Environmental Degradation, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 05 Iran, 06 Russia, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Proliferation, 08 Wild Cards, Cultural Intelligence, Peace Intelligence

Syria: Update. Opposition sources say government forces attacked the hills around Ma'aloula village early on Monday under the cover of heavy shelling. The Christian village is reported to be almost empty after most of its residents fled following the arrival of the foreign-backed militants last week. According to a resident, who left the area in the past days, only around 50 people remain there.

Militants from the al-Qaeda-linked al-Nusra Front and the Qalamun Liberation Front are reported to be in control of some parts of the historic village, which is located about 70 kilometers northeast of Damascus.

Comment: Since 1999 this village has been on UNESCO's Tentative List of World Heritage sites.

Politics. The Syrian government has accepted a Russian proposal to put its chemical weapons under international control to avoid a possible U.S. military strike, Interfax news agency quoted Syria's foreign minister as saying on Tuesday.

Syrian Foreign Minister Mu'allim said, “We held a very fruitful round of talks with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov yesterday, and he proposed an initiative relating to chemical weapons. And in the evening we agreed to the Russian initiative.” He said Syria had agreed because this would “remove the grounds for American aggression.”

Before leaving Moscow, the Foreign Minister made several astounding announcements reported by Russian media. He said,

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Owl: Dark Days in America — Mid-November?

01 Poverty, 03 Environmental Degradation, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 05 Iran, 06 Russia, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Proliferation, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Justice, 10 Transnational Crime, 11 Society, Civil Society, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Idiocy, IO Deeds of War, Law Enforcement, Media, Military, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence
Who? Who?
Who? Who?

“There are very dark storm clouds gathering around the country and North America as a whole. Things are about to get dark, very dark in just a few short weeks. In just over two months, on November 13-14, 2013, the lights are about to go out. Will the lights come back on? It depends on who you ask. Given the past behavior of those in power, it would behoove all of us to prepare for the fact that we could be living for an extended time with no electricity…The working scenario that has emerged is that World War III is on the horizon. Syria was to be the flash point. However, with American and international sentiment running so high against American involvement in the Syrian conflict, Obama needs a Plan B in order to get America into war, because it does not appear that Congress is going to give him the authorization that he needs to force our way in Syria culminating in a military stand off between the Russians and the Chinese and the United States. Subsequently, if Obama fails to obtain Congressional support to attack Syria, he could very well turn his attention to the take down of the power grid and he could still achieve his goals in under two months.

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NIGHTWATCH: Russia, Syria, Lebanon — and Adana, Turkey [US Air Base]

05 Iran, 06 Russia, 08 Wild Cards, Peace Intelligence

Russia: Russia will send another large landing ship, the Nikolai Filchenkov, toward Syria's coast, a Russian navy source said Sept. 6, Reuters reported, citing Interfax. The ship will take special cargo on board in Novorossiysk before heading to Syria. No details about the cargo were provided.

Comment: This is the sixth large landing ship that Russia has deployed to the Syrian coast. That makes nine ships mentioned by name since 4 September and moving to Syria. Russia does not want a naval engagement with the US, but might not be averse to a non-shooting confrontation.

Russia is evacuating by air Russian passport holders who wish to leave. An aircraft arrived at Latakia for that purpose on 8 September.

Comment: In August Russia sent two flights to evacuate 116 Russians and citizens from ex-Soviet states. The large landing ships would be essential for a large scale evacuation, which Russia denies it has ordered.

Lebanon: The US ordered the evacuation of non-emergency official personnel and families from Beirut and offered to evacuate Americans from Adana, Turkey on Friday. It advised against travel to Lebanon and southeastern Turkey and for residents to be alert for violence in light of tensions in the region..

Comment: This evacuation aims to put the most vulnerable Americans beyond the reach of Hizballah which vows retaliation for any US attack against Syria. It also supposedly is a safety precaution before the anniversary of 9/11.  Senior American officials have argued in public that Syria, Iran and Hizballah will not retaliate. On the other hand, spokesmen from each entity have vowed they will.

The inclusion of Adana in the order provides a little insight into the US war plan. Americans in Adana will be a risk from US operations. apparently. That implies that more than cruise missile launches will be involved.

Reassurances are fine as political science theory, but the vows of retaliation are real threats because they are backed up by capability. More evacuations and many more precautions will be necessary.

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4th Media Et Al: Syria Round-Up 3.0

05 Iran, 06 Russia, 08 Wild Cards, IO Deeds of Peace, IO Deeds of War, Peace Intelligence

4th media cropped4th Media:  Syria Will Never Give in Even If There is World War III : Taken Every Measure to Retaliate, If hit by US-led Military Strike

Berto Jongman:  Meet the Syrian Islamist Organization Controlling Senator McCain’s Agenda

Berto Jongman
Berto Jongman

Berto Jongman:  Syria: wish you were here

Berto Jongman:  The Human Cost of the Syrian Civil War

David Swanson:  Congressman Robert Hurt (R., Va.) Not Convinced by Case to Attack Syria

Jon Rappaport:  War in Syria: Evidence? We don’t need no stinkin’ evidence

Marcus Aurelius
Marcus Aurelius

Marcus Aurelius:  U.S. Considering Using Military To Train Syria Rebels

Paul Craig Roberts:  How to Stop Obama's Military Aggression Against Syria

Paul Craig Roberts:  Pat Buchanan asks: Just Whose War Is This?

Paul Craig Roberts
Paul Craig Roberts

Paul Craig Roberts:  US Government Stands Revealed to the World as a Collection of War Criminals and Liars

See Also:

Berto Jongman Et Al: Syria Round-Up 2.0

 

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NIGHTWATCH: Syria Assad Interview, Other Comments

02 Diplomacy, 03 Environmental Degradation, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 05 Iran, 06 Russia, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Proliferation, 08 Wild Cards

Syria: President Asad gave an interview to Le Figaro which was published by the Syrian news agency Sana on 3 September. Excerpts follow.

Asad denied Syrian forces launched a chemical attack. He said Syria has no motive to make such an attack because it is winning the fight. He challenged the US to produce its proof and show it to the UN since the party making the accusations has the burden of proving them.

He said his soldiers were wounded in the attack on the 21st and the UN inspectors visited them in hospital.

He accused the US President of being a weak leader who succumbed to pressure from small groups and as one who starts wars instead of prevents them.

Concerning a Syrian response to a US attack, he reminded the interviewer that the architects of a war only control the first shot. He said the first and the greatest danger is that the situation will explode into a regional war.

In response to a question about Russian support he said,

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