Journal: Debt, Defense, and the Diem Moment in AF

03 Economy, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Terrorism, 10 Security
Chuck Spinney Recommends....

Did the ancients understand debt better than the moderns?

Watch this — note particularly the comment wrt to writing off the toxic debt of Lehman Bros.  Chuck

Six minutes with the renegade ecnomist – Michael Hudson Special

Phi Beta Iota: More than six minutes–a special with decisive commentary on the government's failure to save the economy, choosing instead to save the financial super-parasites that fund the campaigns of the political parasites.  Junk math, junk derivatives, junk politics….

Defense Budget & the Deficit: A Comparison of Reduction Scenarios

Several plans for cutting back the defense budget are floating around Versailles on the Potomac.  These have taken the form of unsolicited proposals made to the Simpson-Bowles deficit commission.  In this important CP report, Winslow Wheeler, a former staffer on the Senate Budget Committee cuts through the rhetoric surrounding these plans and places their budget scenarios in an apples versus apples comparison.  Chuck

Weekend Edition November 26 – 28, 2010
How the Various Plans Compare:

By WINSLOW T. WHEELER Counterpunch

Is Obama Approaching Afghanistan's Diem Moment?

In some respects, the anguish exhibited by Ahmed Rashid in the attached report (Rashid is a supporter of the Afghan intervention) suggests that the situation in Afghanistan is beginning to look a little like Vietnam in 1963 before the assassination of Diem.  We are faced with an escalating rural guerrilla war, where the guerrillas have the initiative.  Our strategy to regain the initiative by winning the hearts and minds of a disaffected predominantly rural population focuses again on controlling urban areas.  In a xenophobic society that traditionally picks its leaders and evolves its patterns of governance from the bottom up, we have maneuvered ourselves into a position of outsiders trying to redesign that traditional society from the top down by imposing our choices for leaders and our visions for building “democratic” institutions.  Metrics of success in this kind of conflicted effort, naturally, devolve into a reflection of the lack of success in overcoming the insurmountable contradiction.

Inevitably, once again, we focus on our inputs rather that outputs — as can be seen in an increasing reliance on Taliban body counts, the number of Afghan troops we have trained, the size of the “surge,” etc.
Local security forces are corrupt and incompetent, and they are led by rapacious leaders and warlords more interested in feathering their own nests than in building a viable nation.  Violence is escalating almost everywhere, yet that violence is itself being being touted as a sign of progress.  In short, like Vietnam, the tunnel of Afghanistan is getting longer and darker.  Like Vietnam, the political urge to find a neat, clean solution to an intractable problem made worse by the arrogance of our ignorance is increasing.

It is against this backdrop that political pressures are building to dump the corrupt stooge we put into place and replace him with a more pliable corrupt stooge, if only to justify a the war's continuation by providing a patina of progress to an increasingly war-weary Americans on the home front.

So, we face the same question we faced in Vietnam in the fall of 1963:  If we dump our stooge because he is becoming uncooperative, who do we put in his place?  The only comfortable options for our political leaders are once again the leaders (warlords) of the corrupt and rapacious groups we have promoted.  Rashid ends his essay by saying that the US and Karzai will not not part ways.  I am not so sure.  But whatever the case, the name of the game is to buy time in a guerrilla war where time is on the side of the guerrilla.  Like Sir Douglas Haig's decision to pour in reinforcements and continue the battle of the Somme for four months after taking 60,000 casualties the first day, a strategy to buy time by promoting more of the same is a strategy to reinforce failure that will eventually sputter out ineffectually at very high cost.  Chuck

Ahmed Rashid, NYRblog, 22 November 2010

Journal: Vacation in Afghanistan, Fight NATO

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, Cultural Intelligence, Officers Call
Taliban fighters in Dhani-Ghorri in northern Afghanistan. Photograph: Ghaith Abdul-Ahad for the Guardian

UK-based Taliban spend months fighting Nato forces in Afghanistan

Taliban fighter reveals he lives for most of year in London and heads to Afghanistan for combat

Special report: Taliban troop with a London cab driver

British-based men of Afghan origin are spending months at a time in Afghanistan fighting Nato forces before returning to the UK, the Guardian has learned. They also send money to the Taliban.

A Taliban fighter in Dhani-Ghorri in northern Afghanistan last month told the Guardian he lived most of the time in east London, but came to Afghanistan for three months of the year for combat.

“I work as a minicab driver,” said the man, who has the rank of a mid-level Taliban commander. “I make good money there [in the UK], you know. But these people are my friends and my family and it's my duty to come to fight the jihad with them.”

“There are many people like me in London,” he added. “We collect money for the jihad all year and come and fight if we can.”

Tip of the Hat to Robert Young Pelton at Facebook.

Journal: Can’t Get No Satisfaction from US Intelligence Community…

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Budgets & Funding, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Intelligence (government), Methods & Process, Money, Banks & Concentrated Wealth, Officers Call, Power Behind-the-Scenes/Special Interests, Strategy
Richard Wright

Dowd says it pretty well. My guess is that because CIA connsiders ISI an “asset”, they insist that no one including themsleves target the ISI. This of course means that ISI can continue using CIA and the U.S. as pawns in thier undeclared cold war against India.
Op-Ed Columnist

The Great Game Imposter

By MAUREEN DOWD

The New York Times

Published: November 23, 2010

And we wonder why we haven’t found Osama bin Laden.

Though we’re pouring billions into intelligence in Afghanistan, we can’t even tell the difference between a no-name faker and a senior member of the Taliban. The tragedy of Afghanistan has descended into farce.

. . . . . . .

Just as with Saddam and W.M.D., or groping and the T.S.A., we get no satisfaction for the $80 billion a year we spend on intelligence. Or we get fake information like Curveball that leads us into spending trillions more on a trumped-up war. Last year, seven top C.I.A. officials were fooled by a Jordanian double-agent who got onto an American base in Khost and blew all of them up. Our agents in the “wilderness of mirrors” may not be up to le Carré, but can’t they learn to Google, or at least watch “The Ipcress File”?

Who knows? Maybe we’ve been dealing with bin Laden all along. Maybe he’s been coming and going under a different moniker. As far as our intelligence experts are concerned, a turban and beard are just a turban and beard.

Read entire article…highly recommended.

Phi Beta Iota: What is not properly emphasized above is that most of the budget is spent on technical collection and beltway bandit vapor ware, with no one held accountable for massive failures, be they by Lockheed, SAIC, CSC, or what-have you.  CIA is at best $10 billion, of which at least 75% is sheer waste, fraud, and abuse.  What it does in the way of “intelligence” we could do for $100 million a year, and we could do it faster, better, cheaper and for 1000 times more individual consumers.  Neither are intelligence officials held accountable for failure (96% of the time) by Congress or the White House because both the Intelligence Community and the Pentagon are nothing more than pork gone rancid.  Leon Panetta could have been the greatest director of CIA in history with his unique background as White House Chief of Staff, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, and Representative.  Similar Jim Clapper could have been the first real Director of National Intelligence.  The lack of vision, initiative, accountability, and productivity at the top of the US secret world is quite extraordinary.  This is how the White House and Congress want it to be.  This is “blessed dysfunctionality” profitable for those who feast at the taxpayer's expense, and most assuredly not in the public interest.  That's how it is.  That is how it will remain absent President Obama choosing to remake himself, or America demanding Electoral Reform, a Coalition Cabinet, and a Balanced Budget in 2010.  We are in the Dark Ages of modern American faux-governance.

See Also:

Journal: CIA Does It Again….

Reference: American Tragedy–Another Free Ride for Pentagon

Journal: Death by a Thousand Cuts? Or Deliberate Elite Murder of the USA?

Journal: China & Russia Dump US Dollar in Bi-Lateral Trading

02 China, 06 Russia, Commerce, Commercial Intelligence, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Money, Banks & Concentrated Wealth, Strategy
DefDog Recommends...

China, Russia quit dollar

By Su Qiang and Li Xiaokun (China Daily)

Updated: 2010-11-24 08:02

St. Petersburg, Russia – China and Russia have decided to renounce the US dollar and resort to using their own currencies for bilateral trade, Premier Wen Jiabao and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin announced late on Tuesday.

Chinese experts said the move reflected closer relations between Beijing and Moscow and is not aimed at challenging the dollar, but to protect their domestic economies.”About trade settlement, we have decided to use our own currencies,” Putin said at a joint news conference with Wen in St. Petersburg.

. . . . . .

Premier Wen Jiabao shakes hands with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on a visit to St. Petersburg on Tuesday.ALEXEY DRUZHININ / AFP

The documents covered cooperation on aviation, railroad construction, customs, protecting intellectual property, culture and a joint communiqu. Details of the documents have yet to be released.

. . . . . .
Wen said at the press conference that the partnership between Beijing and Moscow has “reached an unprecedented level” and pledged the two countries will “never become each other's enemy”.

Journal: Boycott of Israeli Businesses Building Settlements

03 Economy, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, Commerce

Settlement boycotter: We're not divesting from Israel, but from occupation

Norway, Sweden pension funds divest themselves of holdings in some firms involved in settlement building, helping erect West Bank separation barrier.

By The Associated Press

Read full story in Haaretz.Com….

Phi Beta Iota: This is a good start and long over-due.  They should also withdraw from US firms that support the Israeli firms in any way.

From the Ashes: Public Daily Brief Weekly Report Archive

Key Players, Policies, Threats


From 2006-2008, thousands of people subscribed to the Earth Intelligence Network's Public Daily Brief weekly report entitled GLOBAL CHALLENGES: THE WEEK IN REVIEWDestabilizing Threats, Stabilizing Policies, and Global Powers at a Glance. It was maintained by Winston Maike whose unexpected death/passing abruptly stopped the publication of this powerful and free global public service and whose work was “lost”. Former intelligence personnel were known to have said that the Public Daily Brief was superior to the President's Daily Brief.

The Daily Brief consisted of *hundreds* of RSS feeds organized into categorized headlines that were followed by a descriptive sentence that would scroll vertically.  See this example. By the end of the week, that daily feed would be aggregated into weekly reports that were sent out by email.

Thanks to Archive.org's Wayback Machine, we have now posted the archive to http://pdb.re-configure.org

We plan on gradually bringing this service back to life. We will be in the process of collecting RSS feed addresses from many sources (such as Silobreaker). We will then need to form a database and code tailored to our needs.

Inquiries: earthintelnet [at] gmail.com

NIGHTWATCH Extract: China Expands to the Seas

02 China, 03 India, 10 Security, 11 Society, Analysis, Geospatial, Strategy

Click to Enlarge

China-Burma: Construction of a high-speed rail link between China's southwestern province of Yunnan and Myanmar will begin in two months. The line will link Kunming, Yunnan's capital to Yangon (Rangoon), on the Indian Ocean, according to Wang Mengshu, an academic from the Chinese Academy of Engineering.

Wang said a China-to-Cambodia high-speed rail connection is under discussion as well as a link between Yunnan and Vientiane, the capital of Laos. He said that all three rail connections are likely to be completed with 10 years. Wang said the project aims to boost cooperation between China and its Southeast Asian neighbors and foster the economic development of China's western regions.

China-Bangladesh: China is interested in increasing cooperation with Bangladesh in different sectors including agriculture technology, trade, commerce and communication, according to a report about the 21 November meeting between Lu Hao, leader of a visiting Chinese delegation and a member of the Communist Party of China and Bangladesh President Zillur Rahman, The Daily Star reported. Rahman called for more Chinese cooperation on socioeconomic development, adding that China is a great friend to Bangladesh. Lu said he hopes the new cooperation will strengthen bilateral relations.

NIGHTWATCH Comment: China is creating a sphere of influence that stretches from North Korea to Pakistan, and surrounds India. This is a threat to US interests as well as to the political independence of the states accepting Chinese aid. A rail line to the Burmese port of Rangoon would give China access to two Indian Ocean ports with direct rail links to China. The other will be Gwadar in western Pakistan which was built with Chinese investments and aid.

Rail links from China through the Karakoram Range to Pakistan Rail and then a spur to Gwadar are undergoing feasibility studies. The link to Rangoon is much more advanced.

NIGHTWATCH KGS Home

Phi Beta Iota: We must disagree with our learned colleague whose analytic skills we greatly admire.  China's building of infrastructure to the seas is not a threat to American the Beautiful as envisioned by our Founding Fathers–it is only a threat to a predatory imperialist out of control government stupid enough to spend $750 million dollars EACH on three fortresses in Baghdad, Kabul, and Islamabad, at the same time that US infrastructure and US economic competitiveness has been DESTROYED by a two-party tyranny that has sold the American public out–in a word, treason against the public interest.  ENOUGH.  It is time to shut down the Empire before the Empire shuts down America the Beautiful.  Tomorrow we will post a review of Buckminster Fuller's Ideas and Integrities written in 1928.  He nailed it.  The US Government at the political level is NOT in “friendly” hands….certainly not friendly to the 90% that actually pay their taxes unmindful of how those taxes are funding fraud, waste, and abuse on a global scale.  America desperately needs an honest President willing to sponsor Electoral Reform in February in time for the 4th of July recall of anyone who votes against it, and a Director of National Intelligence (DNI) who actually wants to create a Smart Nation and stop going along with $90 billion a year in fraud, waste, and abuse….[less the 4% that General Tony Zinni says is useful].