Berto Jongman: Potpourri of Serious Strategy Threat Stuff

07 Other Atrocities, 09 Terrorism, 10 Transnational Crime, IO Impotency
Berto Jongman

Digital Espionage, Crime, and Warfare in the Global Glass House

U.S. accelerating cyberweapon research

Global Strategic Assessment (National Defense University)

Phi Beta Iota: Devoid of a strategic analytic model, devoid of the concept of “true costs,” and devoid of any self-understanding in relation to corruption at all levels across all boundaries.  A wonderful collection of essays all of which avert their eyes from the naked Emperor.

USSOUTHCOM Commander: Illicit Financial Flows Enable ‘Staggering’ Transnational Organized Crime

Phi Beta Iota:  US Government is not ready to acknowledge that legalized crime by the US banking and finance “industry” is vastly more harmful than street-level quasi-organized crime — nor does the US Government acknowledge that its regulations have created a System D / off the books economy  that is routing around the US Government — ignoring it.

Estimating Illicit Financial Flows Resulting from Drug Trafficking and Other Transnational Organized Crimes (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime)

SHORT WAR, LONG SHADOW: The Political and Military Legacies of the 2011 Libya Campaign (Royal United Services Institute, Whitehall Report 1-12)

Challenges of Counterterrorism (Syracuse University Podcast)

Reference: Political Terror Scale

09 Terrorism, Civil Society, Corruption, Government, Law Enforcement, Military, White Papers

Political Terror Scale Home Page

Political Terror Scale Levels

level 5 Level 5 : Terror has expanded to the whole population. The leaders of these societies place no limits on the means or thoroughness
with which they pursue personal or ideological goals.

level 4 Level 4 : Civil and political rights violations have expanded to large numbers of the population. Murders, disappearances, and torture are a common part of life. In spite of its generality, on this level terror affects those who interest themselves
in politics or ideas.

level 3 Level 3 : There is extensive political imprisonment, or a recent history of such imprisonment. Execution or other political murders and brutality may be common. Unlimited detention, with or without a trial, for political views is accepted.

level 2 Level 2 : There is a limited amount of imprisonment for nonviolent political activity. However, few persons are affected, torture and beatings are exceptional. Political murder is rare.

level 1 Level 1 : Countries under a secure rule of law, people are not imprisoned for their views, and torture is rare or exceptional. Political murders are extremely rare.

Learn more.

Tip of the Hat to Berto Jongman.

Mini-Me: 15+ Potentially Massive Threats to US Economy

02 Infectious Disease, 03 Environmental Degradation, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Proliferation, 09 Terrorism, Blog Wisdom, Commercial Intelligence, Cultural Intelligence, Earth Intelligence
Who? Mini-Me?

Huh?  Here are Mini-Me's post-November 2012 nightmare events:

01  End of all federal grants to all universities

02  By law, all option years on all federal contracts eliminated.

03  30% federal employee Reduction in Force (RIF)

04  Industrial chemical accident of historic proportions (e.g. the really really big rusted chlorine tank above the NJ Turnpike right outside NYC blows)

05  One of NYC's two 1920's water mains blows, followed by a firestorm

06  Our own biological agent used (Forced Population Reduction) across the poorest sectors of the south (“useless eaters” according to Henry Kissinger).

07  Radiological event (dirty bomb) closes down a major transit hub for the next 20 years.  Having fun yet?

15 Potentially Massive Threats To The U.S. Economy Over The Next 12 Months

We live in a world that is becoming increasingly unstable, and the potential for an event that could cause “sudden change” to the U.S. economy is greater than ever.

There are dozens of potentially massive threats that could easily push the U.S. economy over the edge during the next 12 months.  A war in the Middle East, a financial collapse in Europe, a major derivatives crisis or a horrific natural disaster could all change our economic situation very rapidly.

In the list below, you will find some “sudden change” events that are somewhat likely and some that are quite unlikely.  I have tried to include a broad range of potential “black swan events”, but there are certainly dozens more massive threats that could potentially be listed. (List only — links and text at the article.

01  War with Syria
02  War with Iran
03  Disorderly Greek Debt Default
04  Economic Collapse in Spain
05  Price of Gasoline
06  Student Loan Debt Bubble
07  State and Local Debt Crisis
08  Collapse of a Major US Bank
09  Derivatives Crisis (Credit Swaps Collapse)
10  Fall of the Japanese Economy (and government)
11  A Solar Megastorm (1 in 8 chance)
12  Major West Coast Earthquake and/or Volcanic Eruption
13  Tornado Damage to Major US Cities
14  Severe Drought in the United States
15  Asteroid Strike in February 2013

The Drone Wars

09 Terrorism, Government, Intelligence (government), Military, Terrorism & Jihad, War & Face of Battle
Thomas Leo Briggs

 

Recently, the New York Times (4 February 2012) published a story, “U.S. Plans Shift to Elite Units as It Winds Down in Afghanistan”, and the Washington Post (5 February 2012) followed with “U.S. to elevate Special Operations forces’ role in Afghanistan.”

From the Washington Post version, I noted the following salient points.

“The U.S. military is planning to elevate the role of Special Operations forces in Afghanistan as it shifts away from a combat focus to a mission that places greater emphasis on advising Afghan forces and raids to kill top insurgent leaders, senior U.S. officials said.”

“As American troop levels drop, U.S. commanders will by necessity have to rely more heavily on Afghan units to operate with minimal support from big, conventional Army and Marine units.”

“The new focus could rely on American Special Forces soldiers to fill out some of the advisory teams in the most violent areas of Afghanistan. The Special Forces troops would continue to advise and mentor elite Afghan units and the Afghan local police, a program in which villages form units to defend themselves. The primary mission of the Army’s Special Forces, also known as the Green Berets, is to mentor, train and fight alongside indigenous forces. The Special Forces teams also have the ability to marshal firepower from American warplanes for Afghan forces.”

Meanwhile, in an Op-Ed piece in the Washington Post on 9 February 2012, George F. Will wrote “the drone war is being waged more vigorously than ever….”.

The evolutionary development that is most impressive is evolving from using the firepower of American piloted warplanes to the use of unmanned drones mentioned by George Will.

In my book, “Cash on Delivery: CIA Special Operations During the Secret War in Laos” (www.rosebankpress.com), I wrote, “At the beginning of the “Global War on Terrorism”, which began in September 2001, the American military’s subsequent actions in Afghanistan brought new publicity to the use of special operations in denied areas. The use of small teams consisting of Rangers, Seals, Delta Force or others of this type of specially trained soldier in conjunction with the U.S. Air Force and U.S. Navy’s advanced smart bomb technology may turn out to be an advancement in warfare equivalent to the long bow, gunpowder, the machine gun, the tank or the airplane. The combination of global positioning systems, laser guidance, detailed maps, radar, J-Stars, and moving target indicators make the delivery of bombs by the United States Air Force and the United States Navy the most deadly and accurate ever.”

This early 2000s use of special operations forces and advanced technology for bomb delivery were precursors to the “drone war” we see today.  The earlier advanced technology, mentioned above,  was improved and eventually augmented by the drone for the delivery of missiles and even the missiles have evolved into more accurate and deadly munitions.

It is a simple calculus on the surface.  Intelligence is collected by using technology, i.e., aerial surveillance, intercepts, etc, or by using human sources, i.e., informants, prisoners, and/or captured documents and equipment.  The intelligence is analyzed and targets are developed.  Action is taken in the form of drone attack or perhaps ground attack.  If ground attacks are made, more intelligence may be gained from prisoners, captured documents or captured equipment, such as computers or cell phones.

Ground attacks might be made by all-American units, hybrid American-Afghan units or by all-Afghan units.  In special operations in other countries, merely substitute the local participant from the country in which the special operations are taking place.

The special operations formula might be expressed this way, intelligence (technical and/or humint) + action (technical and/or human) = terrorist elimination.   There is nothing new in this formula.  What is new is the technology that can be used for intelligence collection or for action, i.e., drones.

Stephen Aftergood wrote in “Secrecy News”, 21 February 2012, “USSOCOM [U.S. Special Operations Command] and the CIA currently coordinate, share, exchange liaison officers and operate side by side in the conduct of DOD overt and clandestine operations and CIA’s covert operations, said Michael D. Lumpkin, acting assistant secretary of defense.”

“Our activities are mutually supportive based on each organization’s strengths and weaknesses and overall capabilities. Whichever organization has primary authority to conduct the operation leads; whichever organization has the superior planning and expertise plans it; both organizations share information about intelligence, plans, and ongoing operations fully and completely. Whether one or both organizations participate in the execution depends on the scope of the plan and the effect that needs to be achieved. Currently all USSOCOM and CIA operations are coordinated and deconflicted at all levels.”

http://www.fas.org/blog/secrecy/2012/02/deconflicted.html

The Osama bin Laden raid is a successful application of the special operations formula, with emphasis on all-American air and ground units.

The technical intelligence collection part of the formula can continue to be all-American for quite a while, but what we need to see, as soon as possible, is all-Afghan human intelligence collection and all-Afghan ground action units.  Actually, I hope we never hear the details.  Call me old school, but I prefer that the details remain secret.  However, I would really love to believe that one day the special operations formula will be Afghan intelligence collection + Afghan action = terrorist elimination.  We should all hope that all-Afghan special operations will result in the capture of terrorists and the seizure of equipment leading to significant new intelligence, thus contributing to a continuing cycle of intelligence + action = terrorist elimination.

Since evocations of the Vietnam War seem to rile so many, one hopes there is never an inclination to call it “Afghanization”.

The goal of worldwide special operations must be evolution from al-American to hybrid indigenous-American to (finally) all-indigenous action units with, at most, American participation as program managers who never participate “on the ground” but only in advising and providing support.

 

Mini-Me: Iran? False Flag Car Bombings – A Mossad Specialty

05 Iran, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Terrorism, 10 Security
Who? Mini-Me?

Ed Lansdale specialized in false flag terrorism and false flag bombings for the CIA in the Philippines and then in Viet-Nam. Source.

Israel specializes in car bombings — mostly as primers (pun intended) to sell a lot of security to the paranoid, but sometimes, we speculate, to influence its “host” the USA.

Anyone willing to attack the USS Liberty and murder and maim U.S. sailors is capable of any crime against humanity.  Source.

Today, against the Capitol, an FBI-enabled individual carried a suicide vest that was disabled beforehand — we suspect the FBI actually constructed the vest, reminding us of CIA giving the Iranians the complete plans for building a nuclear bomb.  Source.

Below is a useful compilation of warnings about a false flag terrorism set focused in enabling an Israeli attack on Iran with US drawn in.

Most interesting is Zbigniew Brzezinski's coming over to the side of the angels.

Who Carried Out the Terrorist Car Bombings in India, Thailand and Georgia? Iran … Or Someone Else?

U.S. and Israel Point Towards Iran … But Did They Do It?

Car bomb attacks which occurred this week in India, Georgia and Thailand are being blamed on Iran by the U.S., Israel and their allies.

If Iran, in fact, carried out the attacks, it will provide a justification for war against Iran.

But did Iran actually carry out the attacks?

Let’s put aside for a moment the fact that the U.S. and Israel support the terrorists which have assassinated several Iranian scientists (and see this).

And put aside for a moment the following facts:

  • The CIA admits that it hired Iranians in the 1950′s to pose as Communists and stage bombings in Iran in order to turn the country against its democratically-elected prime minister
  • American and Israeli officials admit that they have repeatedly carried out terrorism and then blamed it on Arabs (and see this)

Read full article with many more links.

See Also:

Robert Steele: Iranian Plot or False Flag Fraud?

Berto Jongman: Guardian UK on Evolution of Jihadi Internet

09 Terrorism, IO Impotency
Berto Jongman

The jihad hobbyists who've moved on from watching al-Qaida videos

From rap to ‘radicalisation scores', today's e-jihadists are more than just consumers – but they tend to keep it all online

Jarret Brachman

Guardian, 3 February 2012

EXTRACT:

In 2012, al-Qaida's senior leadership is several heartbeats away from extinction. Their affiliate groups in Yemen, Algeria and elsewhere remain embattled. What remains is a global support movement that is rabid, technologically empowered, but less concerned with the al-Qaida brand name or all that came along with it. Al-Qaida's global movement today is sloppy and self-centred. It is only the most zealous few who seek to live up to their legendary status in the virtual world these days. The problem for intelligence and law-enforcement professionals is identifying that needle in the online jihadi haystack.

Read full article.