Category: 04 Inter-State Conflict

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Engineers of India-Afghanistan vs China-Pakistan

02 China, 03 India, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 08 Wild Cards, 12 Water, Advanced Cyber/IO, Cultural Intelligence, Earth Intelligence, Government, IO Mapping, IO Multinational, IO Sense-Making, Methods & Process, Military, Peace Intelligence, Strategy

India-China-Pakistan: Indian intelligence agencies say they have credible evidence that several hundred Chinese working in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir are People's Liberation Army engineers, the Times of India reported 12 May.

According to the report, Indian intelligence agencies are verifying that the engineers are engaged with military construction projects, such as bunkers, and said the presence of military engineers in civilian construction activities carried out by China in other countries is “unusual,” an intelligence source said. The information about the engineers was part of an assessment presented by the Indian Army to the Indian prime minister, defense minister and other senior officials weeks ago.

Comment: This is the first press report of Chinese military engineers in Pakistan's portion of Kashmir. Chinese engineers are working on road construction in far northern Pakistan which borders China, but no engineering agreements are known that cover Pakistani Kashmir.

India-Afghanistan: India has committed about $1.5 billion to Afghanistan for developmental assistance and plans to commit another $500 million over the next five years, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said on 12 May. Priority areas for the aid will be social programs, agriculture and infrastructure, according to Singh

India strongly supports Afghanistan's peace and reconciliation efforts with the Taliban, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told Afghan President Hamid Karzai during Singh's two-day visit to Kabul. Singh told Karzai and senior Afghan officials that New Delhi is Kabul's “neighbor and partner in development.” He expressed support for Afghanistan's “unity, integrity and prosperity

Comment: The two news stores above help explain Pakistan's dogged support for the Taliban and other anti-Kabul movements and its anxiety about India. India supported the Northern Alliance of Uzbek and Tajik tribes against the Pashtun Taliban when Karzai still was working for the Taliban, before he switched sides.

The presence of Indian advisors and influence west of Pakistan confronts Pakistani strategists with the prospect of fighting on two fronts in a putative future war, with no strategic depth because Pakistan is so narrow. More importantly, the Indian Border Roads Organization (BRO) has thousands of workers and Indian Army engineers working on the “infrastructure” projects in Afghanistan about which Prime Minister Singh spoke. BRO seems to concentrate on improving the roads in Afghan provinces that border Pakistan.

Indian motives in helping Afghanistan are far from altruistic, just as are those of Iran. Both states have provided aid to the Northern Alliance and the Afghan government, based on their strategic calculations to restrain Pakistan and especially prevent it from annexing the Pashtun regions of Afghanistan.

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NATO Says AF Insurgency Weakened–Really?

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, IO Impotency, Military, Peace Intelligence
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It is amazing that nowhere in this article does it mention the media coup that the Taliban scored.  I also am not sure that the information released by NATO is accurate.  If so, it contradicts previously reported Taliban strength levels.  Nor does NATO address the recent high profile security breaches…..

NATO says insurgency weakened

By PATRICK QUINN

The Associated Press

KABUL, Afghanistan — NATO said Monday that it has significantly weakened the Taliban insurgency, capturing or killing thousands of militants in Afghanistan during the past three months.

Read full article….

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Bin Laden Show 76: Egyptian Faction Betrays BL

04 Inter-State Conflict, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Terrorism, 11 Society, Cultural Intelligence, IO Multinational, IO Sense-Making, Non-Governmental

Al Qaida: In a recent meeting, presumably in Pakistan, al Qaida's council elected Saifal Adel (Abu Saif), one of the early members of al-Qaida, as chief of the party Command of Control for the time being, sources told the Pakistani news service, The News. However, Muhammad Mustafa Yamni is likely to be made al-Qaida chief after a grand consultation. Yamni is currently residing in an African country.

Saifal Adel is an Egyptian and has served at key posts in Egypt terrorist groups. He worked with Ayman al-Zawahiri in the al-Jihad group of Egypt. Zawahiri was bin Laden's number two. The News reported that Zawahiri would continue holding his posts of al-Qaida patron, and the chief of the al-Qaida Militant Command. Zawahiri also will monitor the international contacts, a task that had been done by Saifal Adel.

The News' sources reported that Adnan al-Kashri had been placed in charge of general information affairs. Muhammad Nasir al-Washi (Abu Nasir) is now in charge of al-Qaida Africa affairs and Muhammad Adam Khan Afghani was appointed to direct Afghanistan-Waziristan affairs. Fahad al-Qava had been appointed as the Urgent Operational Commander.

Comment: The day after bin Laden's death, an Asia Times on Line analyst reported that the Saudi (bin Laden) faction and the Egyptian (Zawahiri) faction had had a falling out over leadership and policy direction. The full details of the policy split are not known, but what is known is that Zawahiri publicly supported the Pakistan Taliban in their moves to try to overthrow the government of Pakistan, under Musharraf and under the elected civilians. This included the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.

Bin Laden never associated himself with that policy. Bin Laden seems to have favored sensational attacks against Western targets over consolidating a base in Pakistan by taking over the government.

The Egyptians marginalized bin Laden. The lack of security and staff at Abbottabad – a single body guard – indicates bin Laden was a figurehead and a symbol, more than a hands-on commander. The computer disks and thumb drives, in this theory, call to mind Hitler with his war maps in the bunker in Berlin.

According to the Asia Times report, the Egyptian faction delivered the identity and movements of bin Laden's trusted courier to US intelligence and the courier was aware that he was being tracked so that he could lead US intelligence to the Abbottabad house. The courier was a key actor in an al Qaida intelligence operation to eliminate the Saudi faction and permit the Egyptians to take control.

The operation appears to have worked. The leadership selections, reported by The News, support the hypothesis of betrayal by the Egyptians. No Saudis are in senior leadership positions. Until the promotion of Abu Saif and other non-Saudis to leadership positions, the Asia Times report was just one hypothesis.

Based on statements by Zawahiri, al Qaida may be expected to help the Pakistani Taliban to try to seize control in Pakistan. For them, Pakistan is the objective, not Afghanistan.

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Bin Laden Show 68: Choices & Consequences

04 Inter-State Conflict, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Justice, 10 Security, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, IO Impotency, Military
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Osama bin Laden hiding place visited by Taliban

Osama bin Laden received visits from Taliban leaders and wealthy Arab supporters while he was hiding out in a fortified compound in a Pakistani garrison town, it has emerged.

Pakistan may cut Nato's Afghan supply line after Osama bin Laden killing

Senior politicians vow to review ties to America after discord over drone attacks and assassination of al-Qaida leader

Pakistan condemns Bin Laden raid, threatens reprisals for drone strikes

Pakistan's parliament joins its intelligence chief in condemning the U.S. raid that killed Osama bin Laden and threatens to prohibit NATO convoys into Afghanistan if Washington continues its drone strikes against militants.

Phi Beta Iota: Wealthy Arab supporters?  Name three.  This all strains credibility–there is no way wealthy Arabs would make the trip without being detected by Saudi Arabia's paranoid and relatively effective counterintelligence cadre.  The Pakistani reactions would appear to be a mix of theater for their own public, and pre-arranged steps they can take to accelerate our withdrawal from Afghanistan.  There is some question as to whether Petraeus and Panetta are off the leash on drone attacks–emissaries from Pakistan on this issue did not get to the President, they were blown off face to face by Panetta who seems to think he is the “decider” on violating Pakistan's airspace and killing unknown civilians from afar.  Like Tom Hayden, he has our vote for International Tribunal attention.

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Bin Laden Show 56: Taliban on a Roll, BL Irrelevant

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, Advanced Cyber/IO, Civil Society, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Ethics, Government, IO Impotency, Military, Peace Intelligence

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Afghanistan-Taliban: On the death of bin Laden. The Afghan Taliban issued a lengthy statement praising bin Laden, but decoupling his jihad from the current struggle in Afghanistan.

“…The martyr (may God the Exalted have mercy on him) was among the protectors of the Islamic Afghan jihad against the enemy Soviet Union, and he participated with complete loyalty and courage in jihad alongside the Afghans until the Soviet invader forces departed Afghanistan. He offered great sacrifices in jihad in the cause of God, which the history of the ummah of Islam will always take pride in. In addition to this, the martyr shaykh (may God the Exalted have mercy on him) was among the strongest of defenders on the issue of the first qiblah [direction of prayer] of the Muslims: the issue of Al-Aqsa in occupied Islamic Palestine. Likewise, he was the greatest mujahid, and knew not laziness in his struggle against the Crusader-Zionist aggressors all over the Islamic world…”

“… If the occupying Americans and their allies think that the ranks and fighting spirit of the mujahidin in Afghanistan and elsewhere in the occupied lands will weaken with the killing of Shaykh Usama Bin Ladin (may God have mercy on him), this points toward the naïve thinking of the Americans and their lack of understanding of the meanings of jihad and martyrdom. The tree of jihad has been watered, and it is flourishing. It will always do so from the pure blood of the martyrs. With the martyrdom of each martyr, a hundred others will advance to the fields of sacrifice and devotion.”

‘Let America know that the jihadist movement present now in Afghanistan was established from within the Afghan people. It is an expression of the sentiments and hopes of this proud people, and every strike from the occupiers in this country will engender a more powerful response than the strike. The people are in solidarity with the mujahedin.'

‘Indeed, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan considers that the martyrdom of Shaykh Usama (may God have mercy on him) at this sensitive stage of jihad will give birth to a new spirit of jihad against the occupiers, and will incite the jihadist waves further and further. Time will prove, to friend and enemy alike, the will of God the Exalted. What we have said is sincere.'

‘The Shura Command of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan ”

Comment: The statement represents guidance to the commanders in Afghanistan that bin Laden was important in the fight against the Soviets and his death is an inspiration for the future. The Shura Command, however, does not extol him as a hero of Afghanistan today. Rather it stresses the point that his struggle moved in a different direction. The Afghan fight is home grown so that bin Laden's death is not a blow to the Taliban struggle or morale.

The statement makes clear that the Taliban think that bin Laden had nothing to do with the struggle of the Taliban.  The Afghans always despised the Arabs as much as the Arabs looked down on the Afghans. Mullah Omar extended hospitality to bin Laden and his Arabs and they paid him rent and abused Afghan hospitality.  Omar lived to regret the arrangement because he lost his country in 2001 to US forces and northern tribal allies because of those Arabs.  The Shura members apparently have not let Omar forget his bad judgment and thus they showered bin Laden with faint praise.

The language of the statement also looks like a direct rebuke of western pundits and officials who predicted that bin Laden's death would demoralize the Taliban. The Shura Command disagrees and so does the data on the level of fighting and security incidents in May. More to follow.

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