Month: January 2011

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TUNESIA: Reality, US Insouciance, & WikiLeaks

02 Diplomacy, 07 Other Atrocities, Advanced Cyber/IO, Cultural Intelligence
Chuck Spinney Sounds Off....

For years, Alison and I have been hearing glowing reports of Tunisia from fellow sailors.  We finally sailed there and  spent five weeks in Tunisia last summer (August and early September). To our surprise, the local people struck us as the least welcoming of those in the Arab countries we have visited over the last five years (which included Morocco, Syria, Jordan, and Lebanon).

In general, the living conditions in the towns seemed poorer and in some cases more squalid than in the other countries we visited.  Syria, for example, is much poorer than Tunisia, with half the per capita GDP, but I did not sense the widespread squalidness in 2008 that we saw in Tunisia in 2010. But, we were only in Syria for a few days and saw only the western part north of Damascus.  Tunisian people seemed more religious and mosques seemed more crowded than in the other Arab countries we visited, but I saw nothing suggesting radicalization.  In retrospect, it did seem that there were more police in evidence in Tunisia than in the other Arab countries and that people were more fearful of the police, although I did not draw that conclusion at the time.  Bottom line: I saw nothing that suggested Tunisia was on the cusp of a political meltdown — I simply did not like the place as much as the other Arab countries I visited — which was quite surprising, given our expectations.

But, as the attached report by Professor Juan Cole shows in Attachment #1 below, there there was a lot of discontent bubbling beneath the surface.  Moreover, as opposed to this dumb tourist, our diplomats on the scene appreciated the drivers of the discontent.  But, once again, the US government in Washington chose to ignore the warning signs and support a corrupt status quo.  And once again our government was blindsided by an inordinate fear of radical Islamism, and in so doing, may have helped to create conditions favoring its spread.

Robert Fisk, in Attachment #2 below, The Brutal Truth About Tunisia, places the American and European propensity to ignore warning signs, and then being blindsided by developments, into a regional perspective.  He is, therefore, not sanguine about the future.

———[Attachment #1]———-

New Wikileaks: US Knew Tunisian Gov. Rotten Corrupt, Supported Ben Ali Anyway

Informed Comment 1/16/11 4:35 AM Juan

The Norwegian newspaper Aftenposten released a series of US diplomatic cables from 2006 on massive and pervasive corruption and nepotism in Tunisia and its effect on economic development and social problems. The cables show that the United States government was fully aware of the dangerous and debilitating level of corruption in Tunisia, and its anti-democratic implications.

Read rest of Attachment #1…

———[Attachment #2]———-

The brutal truth about Tunisia

Bloodshed, tears, but no democracy. Bloody turmoil won’t necessarily presage the dawn of democracy

By Robert Fisk, Middle East Correspondent

Independent, 17 Jan 2011

The end of the age of dictators in the Arab world? Certainly they are shaking in their boots across the Middle East, the well-heeled sheiks and emirs, and the kings, including one very old one in Saudi Arabia and a young one in Jordan, and presidents – another very old one in Egypt and a young one in Syria – because Tunisia wasn't meant to happen. Food price riots in Algeria, too, and demonstrations against price increases in Amman. Not to mention scores more dead in Tunisia, whose own despot sought refuge in Riyadh – exactly the same city to which a man called Idi Amin once fled.

Read the rest of Attachment #2…

Phi Beta Iota: For some time now, since reading Ambassador Mark Palmer's superb inventory of all the dictators on the planet, we have been concerned about the degree to which the US Government, “in our name,” actively collaborates with and even funds dictators, not just in the Middle East but everywhere.  In fact, only two are criticized: North Korea and Cuba.  It can fairly be said that US diplomacy and national security are neither strategic nor moral, at the same time that both are arguably not in the best interest of We the People.

See Also:

2004 Palmer (US) Achieving Universal Democracy by Eliminating All Dictators within the Decade

Review: Breaking the Real Axis of Evil–How to Oust the World’s Last Dictators by 2025

Review: The Warning Solution–Intelligent Analysis in the Age of Information Overload

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ON THE RECORD: Douglas Holtz-Eakin

Corruption

Douglas Holtz-Eakin is the former Director of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), in the 2003-2005 timeframe, coincident with the term of David Walker, Comptroller General at the General Accountability Office.

Just now Douglas Holtz-Eakin made two statements on the record on television:

1)  CBO is required by law to accept all assumptions directed by Congress.  This includes blatantly false and totally unjustified assumptions about future circumstances.

2)  The Obama Health Care bill is “the greatest money grab in history,” seeking to loot the young and leave them with a future debt they cannot handle.

This is the kind of truth the public has a right to expect from the President and his staff.  Evidently not.

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BLOG WISDOM: One View of Internet & Devices

Advanced Cyber/IO, Collaboration Zones, Communities of Practice, Methods & Process, Mobile, Policies, Real Time, Threats
Seth Godin Home

It might be about the size of the screen and whether or not you're standing up.

Start at the bottom. For the first five years of the Internet, the most used function was email. Email remains a bedrock of every device and system that's been built on top of the internet, though sometimes it looks like a text message or a mobile check in. This is the layer for asynchronous person to person connection, over time.

Moving from left to right, we see how the way we use the thing we call the internet has evolved over time. We also see how devices and technology and bandwidth have changed the uses of the net and, interestingly, how a growth in mass has led to a growth in self-motivated behavior.

Early online projects were things like Archie and Veronica and checking in changes to the Linux code base. You needed patience, a big screen and a sense of contribution.

Layer on top of this a practice that is getting ever more professional, which is creating content for others to consume. Sometimes in groups, sometimes using sophisticated software and talented cohorts.

Click on Image to Enlarge

As we move to the right (and through time) we see the birth of online shopping. Still to this day, most online shopping happens on traditional devices, often sitting down.

The sitting down part is not a silly aside. Ted Leonsis theorized twenty years ago that the giant difference between TV and the internet was how far you sat from the screen. TV was an 8 foot activity, and you were a consumer. The internet was a 16 inch activity, and you participated. I think the sitting down thing is similar. You're not going to buy an armoir while standing on the subway.

Moving over in time and device and intent, we see the idea of consuming content. While tablets get their share of shopping, this is where they really shine. I think 2011 is going to be the year of the tablet, from the Kindle to the iPad to the thing we used to call a phone.

It's in the last two categories that these other devices, things that don't involve sitting down, are superior, not just a mobile substitute. The social graph is a very low bandwidth, peripheral attention interaction, perfect for this audience and this medium. And the last category–tell me where I am, where to eat, who's near me, what's the weather, get me a cab right now–is all about me and now and here.

I don't believe this is a winner take all situation, any more than one bestselling book makes all other books obsolete. I think different pillars work for different devices, and there will continue to be winners in all of them.

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WASHINGTON RULES: US-Korea-China-NK NAFTA

01 Agriculture, 02 China, 02 Diplomacy, 03 Economy, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Justice, 10 Security, 11 Society, Commercial Intelligence, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Methods & Process

A project of Americans for Free and Fair Trade

Dear Citizen:

Barack Obama is pushing a NAFTA-Style Korea Free Trade agreement that would undermine America's sovereignty, laws and economy. This deal would:

  • Allow foreign corporations to drag the U.S. before U.N. and World Bank tribunals to enforce special trade privileges and to demand compensations from the U.S. Treasury.
  • Undermine states rights with hundreds of state laws and regulations subject to review and alteration.
  • Kill almost 160,000 jobs in the U.S.

Six things you can do right now:

1.    Add your organization's name to our coalition letter (attached)
2.    Ask your members to sign our petition
3.    Add this widget to your homepage and e-communications
4.    “Like” on Facebook
5.    Twitter
6.    Learn more. FAQ's

Thank you for your commitment to authentic free trade!

Joseph McCormick
Americans for Free and Fair Trade
Project Site: StopUSKoreaNAFTA.org
Phone: 541.531.0530
Email: jmccormick@freeandfairtrade.org

Frequently Asked Questions (Link)

Below the Line: Top Ten Reasons KORUS is Not Free or Fair Trade

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WASHINGTON RULES: The Revolving Door Continues

07 Other Atrocities, Budgets & Funding, Commerce, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Methods & Process, Money, Banks & Concentrated Wealth, Policies, Power Behind-the-Scenes/Special Interests
Chuck Spinney Recommends....

… in the Hall of Mirrors that is Versailles on the Potomac

ps … good report, notwithstanding the fact that Politico is one of those slimy publications that thrives on the bottom-feeding cocktail circuit of Washington, which is funded by … who?

Obama administration's revolving door

By: Kenneth P. Vogel, Politico

January 18, 2011 04:43 AM EST

Candidate Barack Obama repeatedly pledged on the campaign trail that working in his administration would not be “about serving your former employer, your future employer or your bank account.”

But with his administration at its midpoint, a traditional time for personnel turnover, it’s clear that despite Obama’s avowals, a longtime truism of Washington life — that a prestigious-sounding administration post can be a lucrative career enhancer — remains unchanged.

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NIGHTWATCH Extract: Tunesia & USA Politics

07 Other Atrocities, 11 Society, Budgets & Funding, Civil Society, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Misinformation & Propaganda, Money, Banks & Concentrated Wealth, Power Behind-the-Scenes/Special Interests

Phi Beta Iota: If one reads the Winner Take All Politics book review by Retired Reader first, and then the analytic comments here, one is struck by the raw nearly identical nature of the corrupt politicians and the dysfunctional political system.  Third World America, indeed.

Tunisia: Politics. The Speaker of the Parliament is the new temporary President of Tunisia, in accord with the constitutional succession and as announced by Prime Minister Ghannouchi two days ago.

Local television broadcast on 17 January the formation of the new government — the national unity government. The cabinet includes the defense, finance and foreign ministers when Ben Ali was president. Three leaders of opposition parties are included in the cabinet for the first time.

Prime Minister Ghannouchi created three high-level panels, for political reform, to investigate the recent violence and to investigate reform. He also ordered political prisoners released.

Security

Some gun shots were fired on the 17th but the worst of the fighting occurred over the weekend when Army soldiers and armed citizen groups fought gun battles with Presidential guards from the Ben Ali regime.

The government announced that 78 people died in the past week of violence.

About 1,000 protesters who assembled near the Interior Ministry called for the ruling party to relinquish power. News services reported the protesters chanted: “Out with the RCD!” and “Out with the Party of the Dictatorship!”

Comment: The government appears to be in transition from a strong presidency to a government led by parliament. The Prime Minister, not the temporary president, is leading the political metamorphosis. The announcement of a unit government has quieted conditions in Tunis, by most accounts, but its adequacy and genuineness are questionable.

The uprising was not fundamentally political and not a challenge to authority, until the government made it such. The demonstrations primarily were about economic conditions – the price and availability of food, according to contacts in Tunis, and unemployment, according to the international press. As yet the new government has made no statements about its plan to tackle either.

In other words, the mismatch between public grievances and government remedies portends more unrest that may yet usher in a revolution – a change of government system not just a change in the head of government. At this point no revolution has occurred. The leaders of the pre-existing regime are maintaining themselves in office and that looks like political deception. [Emphasis Added.]

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Review (Guest): Winner-Take-All Politics–How Washington Made the Rich Richer – and Turned its Back on the Middle Class

03 Economy, 04 Education, 07 Other Atrocities, 10 Security, 11 Society, Budgets & Funding, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Methods & Process, Officers Call, Power Behind-the-Scenes/Special Interests, Waste (materials, food, etc)
Amazon Page

Paul Pierson and Jacob S. Hacker

5.0 out of 5 stars Political Economy

January 17, 2011

Retired Reader (New Mexico) – See all my reviews

This book is an effort by two political scientist to explain how in the last thirty years or so wealth in the U.S. has become concentrated in the hands of a smaller and smaller number of people. The fact that this has occurred is indisputable. So is the fact that the gap between the richest Americans and everybody else has grown exponentially just as the U.S. middle class is gradually disappearing. The explanation of why this has occurred offered by Hacker and Pierson is rather more controversial.

They begin by noting that over the last thirty years not only have the already rich gotten much richer, but that the U.S. National Economy has been transformed into a system that no longer serves the interests of the once broad and thriving American Middle Class that once was the backbone of that economy. In their view the system now serves the interests of a small minority of the rich and very rich (one to five per cent of the population). So their book begins by asking how and why did this occur and why over the last thirty years?

Since Hacker and Pierson are political scientists not economists, they argue that this transformation was due to political, not economic factors. Using what appears to be accurate statistical data they cite three `clues' or factors that point to what happened to the U.S. economy: 1) hyper-concentration of wealth; 2) sustained hyper-concentration; and 3) during the thirty years under study, while wealth concentrated at the very top of the income scale, the economy essentially stopped working for the middle and working classes who continually lost ground during this period.

This economic transformation in favor of the rich they argue is not the result of impersonal economic forces but of deliberate government actions or at times inaction (drift). Their central thesis is that mostly incremental government policies over the last thirty years have had the cumulative effect of changing the U.S. economic system into a `winner take all' system heavily biased in favor of the rich and very rich. At the same time federal government policies undermined the traditionally strong labor unions that served as a counter weight to corporations' power and systematically deregulated financial markets and executive compensation.
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