Chuck Spinney: Eurozone Headed for a Crash

Commerce, Commercial Intelligence, Corruption, Government
Chuck Spinney

It’s 2008 All Over Again

The Eurozone is Headed for a Crash

by MIKE WHITNEY

Counterpunch, AUGUST 29, 2011

EXTRACT:

The banks aren’t required to mark down most of their holdings of government debt to market prices. If they did, some would be forced to default or seek a bailout.” (“How Long Can the ECB Prop Up Europe’s Sick Banks?”, Businessweek)

Are you kidding me? The banks are sitting on a mountain of garbage paper and EU regulators haven’t even forced them to write down the losses. Is it any wonder why public confidence is at all-time lows?

. . . . . . .

Doomsday Scenario seems to be on the mind of central bankers at the ECB, too. According to CNBC: “The Sunday Times in the UK reported that policy makers in Brussels are drawing up radical plans to offer central guarantees over certain types of debt issued by banks. The move is reported to be a direct response to the sharp fall in U.S. funding for Europe’s banks. If true, this is clearly something the boss of the ECB can’t be discussing in public….” (“Trichet Gives Master Class in Saying Nothing”, CNBC)

Indeed, how can one publicly discuss their intention to disregard the democratic process altogether, overstep their mandate, and underwrite hundreds of billions in garbage bonds held by thieving bankers? That’s hardly the kind of policy that would elicit a riotous display of support from the people.

So, it’s a mess, and it’s going to get a whole lot messier because EU banks need to roll over more than $4.5 trillion in the next two years and the funding flywheel is already gummed up. So, if there’s not a political solution to the trans-EU fiscal issues in the next few months, the eurozone is toast. When the credit markets start to groan, bad things can happen fast.

Read full article….

DefDog: Seduced by the Cult of Experts

Collective Intelligence, Cultural Intelligence
DefDog

Op-Ed

Goldberg: Seduced by the cult of experts

It isn't surprising that Obama and his economic advisors' predictions have been so wrong.

EXTRACT

Experts — in politics, economics, climate — are very, very bad at telling people what will happen tomorrow, let alone next year or the next century. How many of the economists who tell us what to do now failed to see the mortgage debt crisis coming? Nearly all of them.

Philip Tetlock's 2005 book, Expert Political Judgment, documents that the predictions of even the most credentialed and experienced experts are often worse and very rarely better than random guessing. “In this age of academic hyperspecialization,” he writes, “there is no reason for supposing that contributors to top journals — distinguished political scientists, area study specialists, economists, and so on — are any better than journalists or attentive readers of the New York Times in ‘reading' emerging situations.”

The cult of experts has acolytes in all ideological camps, but its most institutionalized following is on the left. The left needs to believe in the authority of experts because without that authority, almost no economic intervention can be justified.

Read full article….

Continue reading “DefDog: Seduced by the Cult of Experts”

Koko: Weak Assumptions on Nuclear, Levee Designs

03 Economy, 05 Energy, 12 Water, Commercial Intelligence, Earth Intelligence
Koko

Nuclear Plants have not been designed for being flooded by tsunami nor for earthquakes of the sort anticipated in the near-term.

Levees all across America–and perhaps in other parts of the world–have not been designed for “heavy weather” of the sort that destroyed the largest “conventional” levee protecting the city of New Orleans.

This is a short-coming that will ultimately be fatal for more than one community, and it is not being corrected by anyone.

Quake Motion May Have Exceeded Plant's Design

Earthquake simulator gives model levee a big shake

 

 

Seth Godin: Warning signs of defending the status quo

Blog Wisdom, Cultural Intelligence
Seth Godin

The warning signs of defending the status quo

When confronted with a new idea, do you:

  • Consider the cost of switching before you consider the benefits?
  • Highlight the pain to a few instead of the benefits for the many?
  • Exaggerate how good things are now in order to reduce your fear of change?
  • Undercut the credibility, authority or experience of people behind the change?
  • Grab onto the rare thing that could go wrong instead of amplifying the likely thing that will go right?
  • Focus on short-term costs instead of long-term benefits, because the short-term is more vivid for you?
  • Fight to retain benefits and status earned only through tenure and longevity?
  • Embrace an instinct to accept consistent ongoing costs instead of swallowing a one-time expense?
  • Slow implementation and decision making down instead of speeding it up?
  • Embrace sunk costs?
  • Imagine that your competition is going to be as afraid of change as you are? Even the competition that hasn't entered the market yet and has nothing to lose…
  • Emphasize emergency preparation and the expense of a chronic and degenerative condition?

Calling it out when you see it might give your team the strength to make a leap.

Cynthia McKinney: Seeking the Truth on Libya…

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, Civil Society, Corruption, Government, IO Deeds of War, Military, Peace Intelligence
Cynthia McKinney

Thanks to all who have come out and participated in the Truth Tour.  I have almost come to its end.  Last night in Detroit, several of the women were moved to tears as I explained the situation in Libya right now as I know it to be. Every venue has had every seat occupied or was filled to capacity with standing room only.

Detroit's young singer and band, Sister Ziyah and Black Rain were phenomenal and their music set the tone for the event:  first song, Kickstart the Revolution; second song, Good Morning, America; third song, Today, I'm a Better Me.

Detroit attendees were rapt in the August 26 Tripoli streetfight video that I showed.

This Truth Tour has been unique because the true peace people in this country have revealed themselves by their willingness to step forward and be counted against this war in the very midst of the worst deceit and demonization ever.  NATO war crimes are being excused, discounted, or covered up by those who posed as supporters of justice and peace.  It is never OK to bomb people.  And it is never OK to ask the peace-loving people of this country to sacrifice Social Security and Medicare and education and housing–and I could go on and on–so that war profiteers can fatten their ill-gotten coffers.

Continue reading “Cynthia McKinney: Seeking the Truth on Libya…”

DefDog: Recording Labels Simply Don’t “Get” New World

Commerce, Commercial Intelligence, Cultural Intelligence, IO Impotency
DefDog

Recording Labels Sue YouTube Downloader Website, Fail To Grasp The Insignificance Of Their Actions

Devin Coldewey

TechCrunch, 28 August 2011

EXTRACT:

The recording industry doesn’t have the most respectable history when it comes to lawsuits. Between asking for millions for trivial acts of piracy, and asking potentially for trillions in more serious cases, they’ve shown that they’re not only completely disconnected from reality, but totally unheeding of the actual effects of their litigation. So it’s not surprising to see them tilting at yet another windmill.

Read full story….

John Steiner: US State Department Clueless on Tar Sands

03 Economy, 05 Energy, 08 Wild Cards, 12 Water, Civil Society, Commerce, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Earth Intelligence, Government, IO Impotency, Misinformation & Propaganda
John Steiner

Canada-U.S. Oil Pipeline Poses Few Environmental Risks — State Dept.

EXTRACT:

Sierra Club executive director Michael Brune slammed the department's review as “an insult to anyone who expects government to work for the interests of the American people.”

U.S. Offers Key Support to Canadian Pipeline

Phi Beta Iota:  Neither the Department of State, nor any other branch of government nor even the environmentalists themselves, are doing holistic analytics.  At root this project is wrong for two reasons: it uses water we cannot afford to waste to flush the tar, and it creates a third rate oil follow-on ecology–doing the wrong thing writer as Russell Ackoff would say.   The US Government lacks the ability to do holistic analytics, and therefore it is incapable of rendering sound decisions in a complex world.

See Also:

John Steiner: Save Water from Big Oil, Get Arrested in DC

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