Winslow Wheeler: Super Committee Crashing & Burning

03 Economy, 07 Other Atrocities, 09 Justice, 10 Security, 11 Society, Commerce, Corporations, Corruption, DoD, Government, IO Deeds of War, Military, Misinformation & Propaganda, Money, Banks & Concentrated Wealth, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence, Power Behind-the-Scenes/Special Interests
Winslow Wheeler

Not only is the Super Committee headed straight for failure, the “automatic” cuts that would happen in the Pentagon budget are not going to occur.  To “save” the Pentagon budget from further cuts, it's doomsday for budget restraint in the short term.  The only thing to be elevated for the longer term and foreseeable future is our political and governmental dysfunction.

Why Pentagon bloat will kill real deficit cutting

Congress has taken a hostage that no one wants to shoot

EXTRACT:

It is not going to happen that way.

First, the supercommittee is bound to fail; it will reach no meaningful budget agreement.

Second, when the committee fails, the defense cuts envisioned by the supposedly automatic trigger mechanism will not occur. That will be for the simple reason that almost no one wants that to happen. While they are quite mistaken about the consequences, almost everyone on Capitol Hill (and in the Pentagon) thinks that those defense reductions will be “devastating,” “disastrous,” “doomsday” and any other apocalyptic term you can think of.

In short, the debt deal took a hostage that no one wants to shoot.

. . . . .

That “frozen” 2011 level will be more than twice the combined defense budgets of China, Russia, Iran, Syria, Cuba and Somalia. It will be more than $80 billion more than we spent, on average, during the Cold War when we faced a threatening and heavily armed Soviet Union and a hostile, dogmatically communist China. In the absence of these two huge threats, we are now being told we need to spend more.

Read full article.

Berto Jongman: The Emerging Global Mind

11 Society, Advanced Cyber/IO, Autonomous Internet, Civil Society, Collective Intelligence, Cultural Intelligence, Earth Intelligence, Gift Intelligence, IO Deeds of Peace, Methods & Process, Peace Intelligence, Strategy
Berto Jongman Recommends...

Featured Article

The Emerging Global Mind

Noetic Now, Issue Fourteen, September 2011

by Tiffany Shlain

Fifteen years ago I founded the Webby Awards. I was fascinated by how the Internet was connecting people all over the world in new and unexpected ways. I have also been struck by the many conversations about the problems of our day that view them as separate challenges—whether the environment, women’s rights, poverty, or social justice. It has become increasingly apparent to me that when you perceive everything as connected, it radically shapes your perspective.

The concept of interdependence isn’t new; it’s been around since the dawn of humanity. For two-hundred-thousand years, we’ve been connecting through networks both natural and technological. Interdependence has long been a tenet of Eastern philosophy and indigenous cosmologies. But the recent addition of the Internet has added a new layer, which connects us in a fresh way, giving the world a new type of central nervous system. Something happens in one place, and we can see it, feel it, and do something about it almost instantaneously.

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Berto Jongman: Forecasting Large-Scale Human Behavior — and Four Flaws in the Concept

09 Justice, Advanced Cyber/IO, Civil Society, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Peace Intelligence
Berto Jongman Recommends...

Culturomics 2.0: Forecasting large-scale human behavior using global news media tone in time and space

Kalev Leetaru

First Monday, Volume 16, Number 9 – 5 September 2011

Abstract

News is increasingly being produced and consumed online, supplanting print and broadcast to represent nearly half of the news monitored across the world today by Western intelligence agencies. Recent literature has suggested that computational analysis of large text archives can yield novel insights to the functioning of society, including predicting future economic events. Applying tone and geographic analysis to a 30–year worldwide news archive, global news tone is found to have forecasted the revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya, including the removal of Egyptian President Mubarak, predicted the stability of Saudi Arabia (at least through May 2011), estimated Osama Bin Laden’s likely hiding place as a 200–kilometer radius in Northern Pakistan that includes Abbotabad, and offered a new look at the world’s cultural affiliations. Along the way, common assertions about the news, such as “news is becoming more negative” and “American news portrays a U.S.–centric view of the world” are found to have merit.

Contents

Introduction
Data sources
Method
Forecasting unrest: Conflict early warning
The spatial dimension of news
Mapping the “civilizations” of the world’s press
Conclusions

Phi Beta Iota:  Interesting, and no doubt to be presented to IARPA as a proposed project.  However, there are four major flaws in this approach:

1) it does not recognize the difference between preconditions of revolution and precipitants;

2)  is has no underlying analytic model for understanding true costs and severe imbalances between the few and the many;

3)  it relies on English-language second and third hand depictions of the indigenous press in a handful of languages (there are actually 183 that need to be studied as indigenous populations strive to overturn the Treaty of Westphalia and its artificial boundaries); and

4) it assumes that published media interpretations are a reliable representation of the public mood–in our experience, not only are all media generally biased as they are owned by the “establishment” in one form or another, but they also fail to capture the 80% that is “unpublished” or “unarticulated” but simmering and very reality-based.

Chuck Spinney: Grand Strategy Analysis of 9/11 Blow-Back

03 Economy, 09 Justice, 10 Security, 11 Society, Civil Society, Commerce, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, IO Deeds of War, Military, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence
Chuck Spinney

An excellent grand-strategic analysis of last 10 years.

nytlogo153x23.gif

September 1, 2011

9/11 Blowback

By H.D.S. GREENWAY

Historians will label the events of that September morning 10 years ago as the most destructive act of terrorism ever committed up to that time. But I suspect they will also judge America’s last decade as one of history’s worst overreactions.

Of course overreaction is what terrorists hope to provoke. If judged by that standard, 9/11 was also one of history’s most successful terrorist acts, dragging the United States into two as yet unresolved wars, draining the treasury of $1 trillion and climbing, as well as damaging America’s power and prestige. These wars have empowered our enemies and hurt our friendships, and have almost certainly generated more terrorists than they have killed.

Like other victims of terrorism, the United States believed that somehow the answer could be found in brute force. But ideas seldom yield to force, and militant Islam is an idea. The result has been the militarization of U.S. foreign policy.

Read original.

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Patrick Meier: OpenStreetMap Micro-Tasking Imagery

11 Society, Advanced Cyber/IO, Civil Society, Collective Intelligence, Geospatial, Hacking, Methods & Process, Peace Intelligence, Real Time, Threats, United Nations & NGOs
Patrick Meier

OpenStreetMap’s New Micro-Tasking Platform for Satellite Imagery Tracing

September 7, 2011

The Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team’s (HOT) response to Haiti remains one of the most remarkable examples of what’s possible when volunteers, open source software and open data intersect. When the 7.0 magnitude earthquake struck on January 12th, 2010, the Google Map of downtown Port-au-Prince was simply too incomplete to be used for humanitarian response. Within days, however, several hundred volunteers from the OpenStreetMap (OSM) commu-nity used satellite imagery to trace roads, shelters, and other features to create the most detailed map of Haiti ever created.

Read full posting with graphics.

See other Patrick Meier contributions at Phi Beta Iota.

Paul Fernhout: How Security Clearance Process Harms National Security by Eradicating Cognitive Diversity

10 Security, 11 Society, Civil Society, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, DoD, Government, IO Deeds of War, IO Impotency, Military, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence, Threats
Paul Fernhout

This essay discusses how the USA's security clearance process (mainly related to ensuring secrecy) may have a counter-productive negative effect on the USA's national security by reducing “cognitive diversity” among security professionals. Background refs:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Security_clearance#United_States
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secrecy

Scott Page wrote an insightful book about the value of “cognitive diversity” in making effective groups, called The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies. From a review:

“Rather than ponder moral questions like, ‘Why can't we all get along?' Dr. Page asks practical ones like, ‘How can we all be more productive together?' The answer, he suggests, is in messy, creative organizations and environments with individuals from vastly different backgrounds and life experiences.”

Ralph J. Perro (a pseudonym) wrote an essay called: “Interviewing With An Intelligence Agency (or, A Funny Thing Happened On The Way To Fort Meade)”. From the document:

“After the process was over, I was talking to one of my references – a veteran Silicon Valley software executive, and former manager of mine. My reference commented on what transpired “That’s disappointing. If they can’t hire you, I have no idea who they can hire. That process seems to be designed to retain only the most bland.” The ‘bland’ comment might be a bit severe, however, considering the 1999 External Management report it would appear that the agency would appear to need creative thinkers & problem-solvers more than ever.”

What happens if you think about both of these together and consider the implications for US national security?

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Winslow Wheeler: True Cost of Post-9/11 Wars $5T+

03 Economy, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 09 Justice, 10 Security, 11 Society, Civil Society, Corruption, DoD, Government, IO Deeds of War, Military, Peace Intelligence
Winslow Wheeler

What Has Been the Cost of the Post-9/11 Wars?

Email from Winslow Wheeler

This week, as the media runs its displays on America ten years after the 9/11 attacks, there will be references to the dollar costs.  A figure some will use is the one trillion dollars President Obama cited as for the war in Iraq.  That figure is a gross underestimate.

The war in Iraq and its costs are inseparable from the wars in Afghanistan, Yemen, Pakistan, the Philippines, Somalia and elsewhere.  Indeed, when the Defense Department seeks appropriations for them, it does not distinguish the costs by location; nor does Congress in appropriations bills.

Moreover, the DOD costs are hardly the whole story: add costs in the State Department budget for aid to the governments (such as they are) of Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen and elsewhere.

Add also the costs to care for the US veterans of these wars.  That would include the care already extended and the care now obligated for the duration of these men's and women's lives.

Add to that the expanded costs of domestic security against terrorism.

Add also the interest we annually pay for the deficit spending that has financed the wars.

Continue reading “Winslow Wheeler: True Cost of Post-9/11 Wars $5T+”