Peace Intelligence – Page 402 – Public Intelligence Blog

2011/01/292011/01/29

Revolution & Secession: The Game is ON!

08 Wild Cards, Advanced Cyber/IO, Civil Society, Collective Intelligence, Collective Intelligence, Corruption, Counter-Oppression/Counter-Dictatorship Practices, Cultural Intelligence, Ethics, Government, InfoOps (IO), Intelligence (government), Military, Money, Banks & Concentrated Wealth, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence, Policies, Threats

NIGHTWATCH Complete Report for 28 January 2011

Jordan: Protesters across Jordan called for the government to step down. In Amman, more than 5,000 marched. Demonstrators chanted anti-government slogans, blamed the government for rising prices and called for the resignation of Prime Minister Samir Rifai.

Egypt: Today was the Day of Rage and so it has been. Roughly an hour after Friday prayers, the demonstrations began in Cairo, Suez and Alexandria, then spread and continued into the night. Buildings were set alight; curfews ignored and the Army moved in. The night closed with President Mubarak's mildly concessional speech which promises to incite the protesters, more than placate them. Expect more confrontations on 29 January.

Special comment: Background. Research and analysis of more than 50 internal instability episodes since 1980, NightWatch has tracked order in what appears to be chaotic security situations. Once internal discontent metamorphoses into a breakdown of public order, the government begins searching for a set of responses that will halt the decline in its fortunes. A government will follow a three-phase cycle in applying different ideas and resources alternately to placate or crush an insurrection or to buy time to try to find “a line it can hold.” That phrase refers to a set of actions over an expanse of national territory that will stabilize internal conditions.

If the government finds a set of responses that match the protestors' grievances, the downward cycle can be halted. If not, it will continue until the government falls or is changed, usually by the Army, the ultimate guardians of the state.

Below the line: complete NightWatch analytics, followed by comment on Davies J-Curve and Power of the Powerless.

Continue reading “Revolution & Secession: The Game is ON!”

2011/01/282011/01/29

Stronger Signals: REVOLUTION…

07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, Communities of Practice, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Ethics, Peace Intelligence

Al-Jazeera's Revolution?

For all the talk about hashtags and Facebook, al-Jazeera is the primary vector of this democratic infection. Most Tunisians first learned of the early protests in Sidi Bouzid from al-Jazeera. Egyptians watched the overthrow of Ben Ali on al-Jazeera. Al-Jazeera broadcast the Egyptian mass demonstrations to the Yemenis. Social media may be important pathways for secondary infection, but this is an al-Jazeera revolution.

‘We are witnessing today an Arab people's revolution'

Today's Arab revolution is no less significant than those that preceded it in recent decades in Eastern Europe and Latin America. This time, Arabs are not being led by their leaders — from colonialism to pan-Arabism or Islamism or any other “ism” — as was the case in the past.

Propelled by the young and the digital revolution, citizens will demand nothing less than the right to choose and change their representatives in the future.

Continue reading “Stronger Signals: REVOLUTION…”

2011/01/282011/02/21

Waves of Unrest–Where is Open Source Tri-Fecta?

Advanced Cyber/IO, Autonomous Internet, Communities of Practice, Cultural Intelligence, Peace Intelligence

Sooner than you thought? I would also suggest that Karzai is on shaky
ground unless he figures out a way to get out of his Parliament
crisis…..the Pashtu do not go for technology the way the Hazara and
Tajiks do……

Waves of Unrest Spread to Yemen, Shaking a Region

Thousands of protesters on Thursday took to the streets of Yemen, one of the Middle East’s most impoverished countries, and secular and Islamist Egyptian opposition leaders vowed to join large protests expected Friday as calls for change rang across the Arab world.

and also this….at least one country understands the impact of the Internet on mobilizing
the masses….

Egypt: Internet cut ahead of Friday protests

As Egyptians plan for massive protests Friday, the government shuts down the internet.

egyptian woman — An Egyptian woman shouts as she demonstrates outside the Lawyers' Syndicate in Cairo on January 27, 2011. (Mohammed Abed/AFP/Getty Images)

Phi Beta Iota: From 1989 with the publication of General Al Gray's “Global Intelligence Challenges for the 1990's,” and then 1992, with the publication of “E3i: Ethics, Ecology, & Evolution,” is has been known that “open everything” was the single sustainable path to a prosperous world at peace. In 1995, in 1998, and again and again over the years the case has been made for an Open Source Agency (as recommended on pages 23 and 423 of the 9-11 Commission Report) able to achieve the Open Source “Tri-Fecta” of Open Source Intelligence (OSINT), Free/Open Source Software (F/OSS), and Open Spectrum (OpenBTS ++). CORRUPTION of intellect and politics, plain and simple, has been the constant obstacle. It is not too late for the USA to “turn on a DIME” (that's a pun for War College graduates) and get cracking and implement the four core initiatives to stabilize the world:

1) Electoral Reform in the USA to settle the USA by 2012

2) Open Source Agency as planned by Rob Simmons, Robert Steele, and Joe Markowitz with help from retired OMB officials and advance approval from serving OMB officials contingent solely on ONE Cabinet secretary asking for it (State with DoD non-reimbursable funding)

3) Undersecretary of State for Democracy, Ambassador Mark Palmer being the obvious choice, with two Assistant Secretaries, one to deal with the dictators that accept the six year exit plan, one for the other others who do not (and are immediately cut off from all assistance).

4) Undersecretary of Defense for Civil Affairs and Cyber-Collaboration, able to simultaneously make real the redirection of resources toward Operations Other Than War (OOTW) and unscrew the mess being made within communications, intelligence, and information operations by four star generals and their lesser followers, all without a clue. They mean well, but they are both timid and ignorant.

See Also:

Reference: Frog 6 Guidance 2010-2020

Reference: World Brain Institute & Global Game

2009 DoD OSINT Leadership and Staff Briefings

2009 Briefing: Open Everything at UNICEF in NYC

2007 Open Everything: We Won, Let’s Self-Govern

2011/01/272011/01/27

Reference: NYT on WikiLeaks + RECAP

07 Other Atrocities, 09 Justice, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Military, Peace Intelligence

Dealing With Assange and the Secrets He Spilled

By BILL KELLER

The New York Times, January 26, 2011

Bill Keller is the executive editor of The New York Times. This essay is adapted from his introduction to “Open Secrets: WikiLeaks, War and American Diplomacy: Complete and Expanded Coverage from The New York Times,” an ebook available for purchase at nytimes.com/opensecrets.

EXTRACT: The government surely cheapens secrecy by deploying it so promiscuously. According to the Pentagon, about 500,000 people have clearance to use the database from which the secret cables were pilfered. Weighing in on the WikiLeaks controversy in The Guardian, Max Frankel remarked that secrets shared with such a legion of “cleared” officials, including low-level army clerks, “are not secret.” Governments, he wrote, “must decide that the random rubber-stamping of millions of papers and computer files each year does not a security system make.”

Phi Beta Iota: Upgraded to a Reference because this nine part overview of the entire process is elegant, informative, and provocative. A very fine contribution of lasting value.

2011/01/272011/01/27

Carthage under Siege + Revolution Tyranny RECAP

Advanced Cyber/IO, Communities of Practice, Corruption, Counter-Oppression/Counter-Dictatorship Practices, Cultural Intelligence, Ethics, InfoOps (IO), Mobile, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence, Policies, Real Time, Threats

Interesting reading….

Middle East & North Africa: Carthage under Siege

By Feriel Bouhafa , January 26, 2011

Foreign Policy in Focus

The success of a throng of Tunisian protesters who toppled Ben Ali, the seemingly unshakable dictator, caught the world off guard.

Analysts have rushed to make sense of Tunisia's unforeseen popular revolt. The media have emphasized the economic discontent caused by unemployment, poverty, and high food prices. Others have noted the role social networks have played, characterizing the uprising as an instance of online activism and hailing it as a “Twitter revolution.”

This extraordinary uprising is being seen as the possible start of a domino effect in the Arab world.

. . . . . . .

Going forward, Tunisians will scrutinize the sincerity of these statements. The Obama administration’s initial hesitation exposed its unease with this transformation. U.S. policy and its national-security strategy in the Arab world need reassessment. Tunisia’s democratic impulse, as well as the uprising’s reverberations in other Arab countries, presents challenges for U.S. policy and that of its authoritarian allies in the region.

Phi Beta Iota: Most governments are under siege, for most governments, to one extent or another, have failed to attend to the public interest, instead bending or selling out completely to special interests. The United States of America is especially vulnerable at this time because it is over-extended, financially and morally bankrupt, and has a government that is out of touch with both the public interest, and global reality. Tunesia is not unique–all countries have the preconditions for revolution extant, what has changed are two things: the proliferation of precipitants, and the ability of the public to connect and promulgate.

2011/01/26

Achieving Peace in a Digital Society

Advanced Cyber/IO, Collective Intelligence, Communities of Practice, Counter-Oppression/Counter-Dictatorship Practices, Cultural Intelligence, Ethics, Mobile, Peace Intelligence, Policies, Real Time, Threats

How Do We Achieve Peace In A Digitally-Driven, Self-Assembling Society?

DK Matai, mi2g | Jan. 24, 2011, 11:58 AM

Business Insider

EXTRACT: What we are witnessing in the 21st century is the empowerment of sovereign individuals to confront the legitimacy and authority of a sovereign nation state's government via digitally driven means. As witnessed in Tunisia, revolution has been attempted and achieved via digitally driven leaderless groups. [ATCA: Tunisia: A Digitally Driven Leaderless Revolution, 15th January 2011]

Revolutionaries are leveraging digital technology to self-organise, to learn and to proliferate. Incumbent leaderships struggle to keep up because their thinking is generationally out-of-step and based on traditional forms of centralised hierarchical control and resource allocation.

Read complete article….

2011/01/252011/01/25

RUSSIA: Suicide Bomber, Intel Not Shared

Advanced Cyber/IO, Cultural Intelligence, Law Enforcement, Peace Intelligence

Russia: At least 35 people were killed by the suicide bomb at Domodedovo airport. Airport representative Elena Galanova issued an official statement in which she said the blast struck the international arrivals hall in the common area, to which citizens who are not passengers have access. Consequently, the explosion occurred outside the baggage claim area, close to people who may not have been passengers.

Ria Novosti reported that Russian security services had received warning of a possible terrorist attack on Moscow's Domodedovo airport, a law enforcement source said, but airport authorities denied receiving any warning.

Comment: Multiple news services reported that the head of the bomber was found intact. That is always the signature of an explosive vest worn by the suicide bomber. Pakistani media have made that observation repeatedly. They always find the head.

The features of the head were described as resembling an “Arab,” which could also match the features of a Chechen or a Caucasian.

One point that is clear is that Russian airport security is so poor that it failed to detect a person wearing an explosives vest. If the Ria Novosti report proves accurate, the failure to communicate threat information to airport authorities — who had the ability to make low cost quick security upgrades, but were not given the opportunity– makes Russian intelligence cooperation comparable to that of the US in 2001.

Phi Beta Iota: This is yet another early warning. The solution to suicide terrorists “dying to win” (as well as WikiLeaks) is very straight-forward: legitimacy. Absent legitimacy, violence will grow, with 2012 expected to be a turning point year. There are not enough weapons (or counterintelligence and security professionals with brains) to keep the masses down. The meek will inherit the Earth, but first the less meek will wreak havoc.