For the U.S., democracy's fate in the region matters much less than the struggle between the Saudis and Iran
Robert D. Kaplan
Wall Street Journal, March 26, 2011
Despite the military drama unfolding in Libya, the Middle East is only beginning to unravel. American policy-makers have been spoiled by events in Tunisia and Egypt, both of which boast relatively sturdy institutions, civil society associations and middle classes, as well as being age-old clusters of civilization where states of one form or another have existed since antiquity. Darker terrain awaits us elsewhere in the region, where states will substantially weaken once the carapace of tyranny crumbles. The crucial tests lie ahead, beyond the distraction of Libya.
The United States may be a democracy, but it is also a status quo power, whose position in the world depends on the world staying as it is. In the Middle East, the status quo is unsustainable because populations are no longer afraid of their rulers. Every country is now in play.
Phi Beta Iota: Perhaps his meeting with Barack Obama served kool-aid, and he drank it. This article, which can certainly be considered to be an authoritative depiction of the prevailing views in Washington, is disappointing at multiple levels. The author lacks a strategic analytic model, an ethical model, and a process model, as well as an appreciation for how the tortilla has flipped. Epoch B was born in the 1970's coincident with Peak Empire when the US was thrown out of Viet-Nam by indigenous people's with stronger ethics, a stronger culture, and an unconquerable will. Today Epoch B is a young teen-ager, just beginning to flex its muscles. “Dad” can no longer win a physical contest with this young teen-ager, nor can “Dad” understand the nuances of the digital age the way this teen-ager–the first generation not to be a “mini-me” of “Dad”–does. Most of us never imagined that Wall Street and the two-party “front” for corporations would last as long as it did after the 1980's meltdown. We all under-estimated the placidity of the American public. Now the American public's perceptions are secondary. The five billion poor are on the march, and Washington has absolutely no clue what to do next.
What vintage bomb survival suits have to do with Dr. Stragelove and Richard Nixon.
The recent tragedy in Japan has triggered a tsunami of terror, founded and unfounded, about the potential risks of nuclear reactors.
While there are people better equipped than us to explain the precise implications of the situation, we thought we’d put things in perspective by examining the flipside of these dystopian fears: The exuberant optimism about nuclear power in mid-century America.
The issue is heating up in America as well, and will soon be heard in court.
On April 5th, 2011, at 11 a.m., at the Federal Courthouse at 141 Church Street in New Haven, Connecticut, the case of Gallop v. Cheney, Rumsfeld, and Myers will be heard by the United States Court of Appeals for the 2nd Circuit.
Phi Beta Iota: There is not a sufficiency of evidence to convict, but there is assuredly a sufficiency of evidence to indict, and we are equally certain that the 911 Commission was at best a mediocre and incomplete endeavor and at worst a complete cover-up. As Penguin notes, the truth will come out.
Synopsis: 10 days after 9-11, visiting Joint Staff, not only knew we were going to take down Iraq, a few weeks later but got the list of six other countries:
Phi Beta Iota: This is somewhat consistent with the published book Endgame–The Blueprint for Victory in the War on Terror by Thomas McInerney and Paul Vallely with an introduction by Oliver North. Published in 2004, they focused on the need to use our military to wipe out Syria and Iran while intimidating Libya and Pakistan. What is quite clear is that regardless of which political party is nominally in power, the Military-Industrial-Congressional Complex (MICC) has taken on a life of its own that is expensive, dangerous to all, clearly at odds with the US Constitution, and totally out of control. For a third of what we spend on war we could be waging peace and providing all 44 dictators with non-violent exit strategies. The gap between the public and the government has never been greater in the modern history of the USA, in our collective view.
Tom Christie spent almost 50 years inside the DOD acquisition apparatus, concluding his career as a top level civilian professional directing DOD's office of Operational Test and Evaluation. Since the 1960s, he has seen every single stab at reforming how we develop and buy weapons come and go – and fail. Today, as measured by GAO and many others, cost overruns are higher, deliveries are later, and the biggest DOD budget since the end of World War II buys us the smallest, oldest force structure and weapons inventory since 1946.
Christie has a straight forward explanation: the buying apparatus in the Pentagon, Congress and industry does not enforce the declared intent of acquisition laws and regulations, they circumvent the intent – thanks to the multiple loopholes and dodges assiduously inserted by Congress, the Pentagon and industry. Politely, he calls this a lack of “discipline.”
Want to make a comment about Christie's or any other author's essay? Want to hold a debate? We welcome that. Let me know by emailing winslowwheeler at msn.com.
Phi Beta Iota: Integrity is a self-healing system. No one dealing with acquisition has it. This has gotten so out of hand it is now an atrocity.
Phi Beta Iota: This is interesting at multiple levels. It demonstrates that the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) endeavor to achieve common solutions is not only not working, but does not properly integrate industry. It demonstrates that Cyber-Command is off on its own warpath, and not thinking deeply about the issues that this White Paper raises. Finally, it is a perfect display of the tail end of Industrial Era thinking, assuming that top down coordination of anything is going to be effective in a bottom-up world. The Autonomous Internet is NOT something these people are even aware of….
“I see Obama's visiting the United States,” said Rush Limbaugh on
Thursday, the president's first full day back in Washington after a spring
break diplomatic tour of Latin America….
. . . . . . .
After ordering troops into action, the president headed off to South
America with his wife, daughters, mother-in-law, and mother-in-law's
friend in tow. There was no solemn, reasoned speech to explain why the
U.S. was going to war…..
Click on Image to Enlarge
Meanwhile, the White House is at times having difficulty simply making
sense. The president talked about an “exit strategy” in which American forces would not exit at all. And administration officials are going out of their way to deny that the Libyan fighting, which involves a significant fleet of U.S. warships and U.S. warplanes, is a “war.” Deputy National Security Adviser Ben Rhodes told reporters Wednesday that Libya
wasn't a war, describing it instead as a “kinetic military action.”
