Journal: UK Defence Bottoms Up, US DoD Next…

10 Security, 11 Society, Budgets & Funding, Military, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence
Joe Cirincione

Joe Cirincione

President of Ploughshares Fund

Posted: October 20, 2010 02:13 PM

British Budget Collapse Foreshadows Cuts to Come in U.S. Defense Budget

Great Britain's cuts, particularly to its nuclear forces, are the canary in the defense budget mine. Just as massive deficits forced the conservative UK government to cut deep into its military programs, the United States will soon have to choose: update its force structure or cling to obsolete Cold War posture?
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U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates is going through his own budget pain, now choosing which weapons to cut in an effort to save some $100 billion over the next five years. The Pentagon budget has doubled since 2001, rising an average of seven percent a year. This budget growth is expected to slow to only 1 percent in the near future, and even that may be unsupportable. Something's got to give. To preserve vital conventional military forces, the service chiefs will likely have to cut into the $54 billion spent each year on nuclear weapons-related programs.

Read full article…

Phi Beta Iota: DoD needs to fall back to $500 billion a year, and wean itself of contractors at the same time that it creates a long-haul Air Force, a 450-ship Navy, and a military-based multinational Peace Corps.

2010: Human Intelligence (HUMINT) Trilogy Updated

2010: OPINION–America’s Cyber Scam

2009 Perhaps We Should Have Shouted: A Twenty-Year Restrospective

2008 U.S. Naval Power in the 21st Century

2008 Rebalancing the Instruments of National Power–Army Strategy Conference of 2008 Notes, Summary, & Article

2001 Threats, Strategy, and Force Structure: An Alternative Paradigm for National Security

2000 Presidential Leadership and National Security Policy Making

1998 JFQ The Asymmetric Threat: Listening to the Debate

1997 Strategic Intelligence in the USA: Myth or Reality?

1997 USIP Conference on Virtual Diplomacy Virtual Intelligence: Conflict Avoidance and Resolution through Information Peacekeeping

1995 Re-Inventing Intelligence The Vision and the Strategy

1995 GIQ 13/2 Creating a Smart Nation: Strategy, Policy, Intelligence, and Information

1993 On Defense & Intelligence–The Grand Vision

1991 MCG Intelligence Support for Expeditionary Planners

Journal: India Strike on Pakistan Grows More Likely

03 India, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, 12 Water, Officers Call

India-Pakistan: According to a 109 page Indian interrogation report of the Pakistani-American jihadist, David Headley, officers through senior field grade ranks in Pakistan's intelligence services were involved directly in the 2008 Mumbai militant attacks and intended to control a further split in Kashmir-based militant groups by providing them with a victory, The Guardian reported yesterday, 18 October.

Headley, a Pakistani American originally named Daood Gilani, undertook surveillance missions of the LeT targets in the 2008 Mumbai operation, He said he regularly reported to the ISI, but the Indian interrogation report suggests that supervision of the terrorists by the ISI was often chaotic. Headley also opined that the senior officers of the agency were unaware of the Mumbai operation beforehand.

According to the Indian interrogation report and The Guardian, Headley said he met once with a Pakistan Army “Colonel Kamran” and had a series of meetings with two majors named “Sameer Ali” and “Iqbal” from Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). A fellow terrorist met with Colonel Shah.” At least one of eight surveillance missions in India as paid for by the ISI, who paid him $25,000.

NIGHTWATCH Comment: The Guardian does not admit that the Indian interrogation report might have been leaked deliberately. In any event, the publication of key excerpts will help justify to the international community the grounds for Indian suspicions and caution in dealing with Pakistan.

Headley might have told the truth, but the Pakistanis he dealt with certainly did not use their real names or affiliations. Headley's confession of involvement in the Mumbai attacks is sufficient to convince India that Pakistanis and Pakistan itself bear ultimate responsibility for the more than 160 dead in Mumbai in 2008.

The most plausible statement by Headley is that he was told the reason for the Mumbai attacks was to unite Kashmiri militant factions that were splintering and to move militant activity out of Pakistan and against India. Otherwise, Headley has a bit for Pakistan and a bit for India.

His allegations, as reported, will reinforce India's conviction that Pakistani officials continue to support the anti-Indian Islamic terrorists. On the other hand, Pakistanis will see other comments as exonerating the Pakistani government from blame by perpetuating the notion of rogue operations within the Pakistani intelligence service.

Any long time student of the Pakistani military hierarchy knows that rogue operations by serving senior field grade officers are all but impossible. Headley told his interrogators what they wanted to hear and hardened viewpoints already set in stone.

Phi Beta Iota: Pakistan is not Israel, India is not the USA, and Mumbai is not the USS Liberty.  All signs point to a major decisive Indian attack on Pakistan.  As our esteemed colleague notes, there is no such thing as a “rogue” element among Pakistani military officers.  They got used to fooling the Americans working for the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), ripping the USA off of billions intended for Afghanistan, and got cocky about fooling India.  Right about now, we hope someone in India is planning the complete eradication of the ISI Headquarters building, in a replay of the successful and measured attack by the USA on the Libyan intelligence headquarters.  If Pakistan has a brain, it will eat this one and stand down.  At the same time, India needs to be smarter about a regional water authority–Kashmir is about water, not about ethnic anything.

Journal: US Intelligence Wasting Billions of Dollars

03 Economy, 10 Security, Commercial Intelligence, Corruption, Government, Officers Call

U.S. intelligence agencies ‘wasted' billions:  Senator faults mismanagement

By Shaun Waterman The Washington Times

8:07 p.m., Tuesday, October 12, 2010

U.S. intelligence agencies have wasted many billions of dollars by mismanaging secret, high-technology programs, the deputy chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence says.

“The American public would be outraged if they knew,” Sen. Christopher S. Bond, Missouri Republican, told The Washington Times. “Billions and billions of taxpayer dollars have been wasted.”

Mr. Bond said he was unable to provide details or exact figures because the programs are classified. “I wish I could, but I can't,” he said, adding that “many billions of dollars” were wasted on “just one program” that had been canceled recently.

Read complete article online….

Phi Beta Iota: It is actually tens of billions.  If you take General Tony Zinni's estimate that secret intelligence provided him with, “at best” 4% of what he needed as commanding general of the US Central Command (USCENTCOM), then engaged in two wars and several “expeditions,” and you take $75 billion a year as the now public amount, what you end up with is a range:  $72 billion wasted at the high end, or our personal estimate, $66 billion wasted at the low end.  This is reprehensible.  It is also misleading to suggest that the new reviews of over-spending on new initiatives will cut waste.  The waste is in the “base” and it is the base that needs to be churned by cutting 20% a year for each of five years running (yes, that does add up to 100%).  For a still valid detailed review that had inputs from the top two guys for national security and C4I at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) at the time, see  2000 ON INTELLIGENCE: Spies and Secrecy in an Open World.

Journal: CIA Officer Blew Off Warning in Jordon Weeks in Advance of Jordanian Suicide Bombing in Afghanistan that Killed Seven

08 Wild Cards, 09 Terrorism, 10 Security, Government, Methods & Process, Officers Call
Click to See Panetta Various Disguises

C.I.A. Was Told About Bomber of Afghan Base, Inquiry Finds

By MARK MAZZETTI

The New York Times  Published: October 19, 2010

WASHINGTON — Three weeks before a Jordanian double agent set off a bomb at a remote Central Intelligence Agency base in eastern Afghanistan last December, a C.I.A. officer in Jordan received warnings that the man might be working for Al Qaeda, according to an investigation into the deadly attack.

But the C.I.A. officer did not tell his bosses of the suspicions — brought to the Americans by a Jordanian intelligence officer — that the man might try to lure Americans into a trap, according to the recently completed investigation by the agency.

The internal investigation documents a litany of breakdowns leading up to the attack at the Khost base that killed seven C.I.A. employees, the deadliest day for the spy agency since the 1983 bombing of the American Embassy in Beirut. Besides the failure to pass on warnings about the bomber, Humam Khalil Abu-Mulal al-Balawi, the C.I.A. investigation chronicled major security lapses at the base in Afghanistan, a lack of war zone experience among the agency’s personnel at the base, insufficient vetting of the Jordanian, and a murky chain of command with different branches of the intelligence agency competing for control over the operation.

Full Story Online….

See Also:

Journal: The Truth on Khost Kathy

Journal: CIA Leads the “Walking Dead” in USA (With RECAP Links)

Journal: Taliban Ramps Up North, Holds South + RECAP

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Terrorism, 10 Security, 11 Society, Military, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence, Strategy
DefDog Recommends...

Taliban Influence Grows in North

Insurgents Attack, Recruit, Adjudicate, Countering NATO's Advance in South

By YAROSLAV TROFIMOV

PUL-E-KHUMRI, Afghanistan—The Taliban's influence in northern Afghanistan has expanded in recent months from a few hotspots to much of the region, as insurgents respond to the U.S.-led coalition's surge in the south by seizing new ground in areas once considered secure.

Taliban militants stop traffic nightly at checkpoints on the road from Kabul to Uzbekistan, just outside Baghlan province's capital city of Pul-e-Khumri, frequently blowing up fuel convoys and seizing travelers who work with the government or the international community.

Deja Vu Back Centuries

In many areas here and the rest of the north, the Taliban have effectively supplanted the official authorities, running local administrations and courts, and conscripting recruits.

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The Taliban have consolidated their war gains by tapping into broad disillusionment with the incompetence and venality of Afghan government officials.

“People don't love the Taliban—but if they compare them to the government, they see the Taliban as the lesser evil,” said Baghlan Gov. Munshi Abdul Majid, an appointee of President Hamid Karzai.

Full Story Online…

Phi Beta Iota: Based on what we now know about Viet-Nam, we predict that the military-industrial complex will declare victory in November 2012, and inform the new President that the US military has been entirely “used up” in Afghanistan and Iraq, and therefore we need to increase the Pentagon budget to rebuy the military from scratch.

See Also (RECAP Last Six Months):

Continue reading “Journal: Taliban Ramps Up North, Holds South + RECAP”

Journal: Three Days of Attention for Homeless Vets

11 Society, Civil Society, Cultural Intelligence, Gift Intelligence, Military, Officers Call

Written lead & video button

WATCH: Can Three Days Make A Difference For Homeless Veterans?

On Sunday, 60 Minutes reported on a visit to San Diego, where a yearly “Stand Down” event for homeless veterans is designed to change lives in just three days.

A skeptical Scott Pelley found that while the event's clean, safe and empathetic environment can't fix the problems homeless veterans face, the event serves as a “ceasefire” to show vets that they aren't alone.

Phi Beta Iota: There are two threads here, the first being that attention is healing and nurturing, whether it is new-borne babies or hardened vets.  The second is that this is a complete break from treating homeless vets or homeless anyone as “the other” that is not “noticed” as if they did not exist.  San Diego has done a good thing with this annual event, it ought to take place all across America.

Secrecy News Headlines: Iraq + Lies Leading to Iraq

04 Inter-State Conflict, 08 Wild Cards, Corruption, Government, Media, Military, Officers Call, Power Behind-the-Scenes/Special Interests

**      DOD SEES NO INTEL COMPROMISE FROM WIKILEAKS DOCS
**      REVISITING THE DECISION TO GO TO WAR IN IRAQ

It is to be expected that national intelligence services will sometimes fail to identify and discover a threat to the nation in a timely fashion.  But when intelligence warns of a threat that isn’t really there, and then nations go to war to meet the phantom threat — that is a serious, confounding and deeply disturbing problem.

But in a nutshell, that is the story of the war in Iraq, in which the U.S. and its allies attacked Saddam Hussein’s Iraq because of the supposedly imminent threat posed by Saddam’s stockpile of weapons of mass destruction — a threat that proved illusory.

A new book published in the United Kingdom called “Failing Intelligence” provides a remarkable account of the British experience of how intelligence on the Iraqi WMD program was shaped and packaged to support the decision to go to war in Iraq.  The book’s author, Brian Jones, was the chief specialist in weapons of mass destruction on the UK Defence Intelligence Staff.  He was also a skeptic of the stronger claims made about the existence of Iraqi WMD stockpiles.  The book documents his mostly unsuccessful attempts to register that skepticism, to moderate the extreme claims made by government officials, and later to hold those officials accountable for their actions.

He provides a detailed first-hand account of how his efforts were consistently deflected in the rush to war, and how intelligence declined into propaganda.  It’s a grim but instructive case study in the overlapping failure of intelligence gathering, intelligence production, and intelligence oversight.

The National Security Archive has recently published three richly informative collections of declassified U.S. and British government documents on the lead-up to the Iraq war (including several key documents cited or relied upon by Brian Jones).

“The more deeply the processes of creating the government reports on the alleged Iraqi threat are reconstructed — on both sides of the Atlantic — the more their products are revealed as explicitly aimed at building a basis for war,” wrote John Prados of the National Security Archive and journalist Christopher Ames in an analysis of the documents.

“In the light of a decision process in which no serious consideration was given to any course other than war, the question of whether American and British leaders set out to wage aggressive war has to be squarely faced,” they wrote.

See Also:

Review: Weapons of Mass Deception–The Uses of Propaganda in Bush’s War on Iraq

Review: Web of Deceit: The History of Western Complicity in Iraq, from Churchill to Kennedy to George W. Bush

Review: VICE–Dick Cheney and the Hijacking of the American Presidency

Review: Empire of Illusion: The End of Literacy and the Triumph of Spectacle

Review: Shooting the Truth–The Rise of American Political Documentaries

Review: Grand Theft Pentagon–Tales of Corruption and Profiteering in the War on Terror