Category: 08 Wild Cards

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Japan Case Study in Nuclear Information Ignorance

08 Proliferation, 08 Wild Cards, About the Idea, Advanced Cyber/IO, Commercial Intelligence, Communities of Practice, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Earth Intelligence, Policies

Time does not permit the detailed study a topic of this importance merits (it would be an excellent PhD project for a bi-lingual Japanese-English speaking PhD candidate) but here is what we do know:

1.  The risks were known.

2.  A tsunami risk was specificially brought up and dismissed at a critical juncture.

3.  There was no “what if” planning or critical supply chain planning for contaminated water and food.

We speculate that an intense look at the information terrain surrounded Japan's nuclear and global warming and related environmental degradation and energy-commercial competitiveness discussions will yield an almost perfect understanding of where the data asymmetries and information pathologies were that allowed Industrial Era decision systems (inherently secret and corrupt) to ignore open source information on risk.

This is also a good place to study how disasters turn into catastrophes instead of remaining disasters, for lack of the proper political-legal, socio-economic, and ideo-cultural mindsets.

Fifty years from today, the catastrophe in Japan may be regarded as the moment of awakening for the global mind.

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NIGHTWATCH Taliban R&R Program Under Petraeus

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Military, Officers Call

Afghanistan: Almost 5,000 Taliban insurgents laid down their weapons or are moving toward doing so, commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan General Petraeus said on 23 March. About 700 former Taliban have officially completed the steps to reintegrate into society, Petraeus said. He said another 2,000 insurgents are taking steps toward reintegration and others have laid down their weapons entirely.

Comment: The statistic is interesting because only a fraction of the anti-government fighters have reconciled to the government, based on the daily number of clashes and engagements. Most have been in northern districts where logistics support from Pakistan is barely sustainable. Petraeus also did specify the time frame for his data.

NightWatch data in November 2010 and January 2011 show the number of ralliers increased, but the number of clashes increased at a much greater rate. Several developments can explain the data. First, the anti-government forces appear to be replacing losses at a rate much faster than the rate of rallies. That can only happen if the populace supports the recruitment effort and that means the fight in Afghanistan is a Pashtun tribal uprising, not an insurgency. Second, the ralliers do not remain reconciled, but rejoin the fighting after a period of rest. The spring anti-government offensive should provide insight into the rate of recidivism. Third, the numbers are spread over such a long period as to be meaningless in evaluating the success or failure of the Coalition efforts. And there are others.

Without more context, the statement about ralliers looks like cheer leading.

Continue reading “NIGHTWATCH Taliban R&R Program Under Petraeus”

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U.S. Lacks Plan for Dealing With Chaos in Yemen Despite Dire Warnings

02 Diplomacy, 03 Economy, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Justice, 10 Security, 11 Society, Cultural Intelligence, Government, IO Multinational, Military, Peace Intelligence
Who, Me?

Although it is Fox News and arch-critic Lindsey Graham pointing fingers, the fact is they are right!  US Government seems trapped in a time warp and completely unprepared to contemplate a world in which our military is relatively useless (as well as unaffordable) and we actually need to have a deep capacity for nation-building.  P

The Obama administration, after helping to orchestrate a U.N.-backed military intervention in Libya, is facing pressure to do more to prepare for the potential collapse of the government in another Mideast country, Yemen — but U.S. officials admit they are doing little more than watching at this point.

. . . . . . .

Yemen is a central ally of the U.S. government against Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. The group, along with its operational planner, the American Anwar al-Awlaki, the first American on the CIA's kill or capture list, are now considered a greater threat than Usama bin Laden's network in Pakistan. And one U.S. lawmaker suggests that chaos in Yemen could result in a worse terrorist breeding ground than Afghanistan.

But Defense Secretary Robert Gates’ admission in Cairo that the administration had not focused on a future without Yemen's president was startling.

Read full article….



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Commando Solo in English, French, and Arabic

08 Wild Cards, Cultural Intelligence, IO Multinational
Mario Profaca Recommends...

Listen: Secret Libya Psyops, Caught by Online Sleuths

By Noah Shachtman

WIRED (Danger Room), 20 March 2011

 

The U.S. military has dispatched one of its secret propaganda planes to the skies around Libya. And that “Commando Solo” aircraft is telling Libyan ships to remain in port – or risk NATO retaliation.

We know this, not because some Pentagon official said so, but because one Dutch radio geek is monitoring the airwaves for information about Operation Odyssey Dawn — and tweeting the surprisingly-detailed results. On Sunday alone, “Huub” has identified the tail numbers, call signs, and movements of dozens of NATO aircraft: Italian fighter jets, American tankers, British aerial spies, U.S. bombers, and the Commando Solo psyops plane (pictured).

“If you attempt to leave port, you will be attacked and destroyed immediately,” the aircraft broadcasted late Sunday night.

Read rest of article and listen to actual broadcast (English, French, Arabic).

Continue reading “Commando Solo in English, French, and Arabic”

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Japan Lost Its Integrity over Nuclear Safety

03 Economy, 05 Energy, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Proliferation, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, Commerce, Corruption, Earth Intelligence, Government, IO Sense-Making
Chuck Spinney Recommends...

The below report in the Guardian makes three general points regarding the Tokyo Electric's management operations at the Fukushima Daiichi reactor site:

1. Cost-cutting degraded safety procedures.

2. Collusion between industry and regulators.

3. Deferring decisions on how to permanently store nuclear waste.

Thank god these problems do not occur in Amerika (sic).

Chuck Spinney

Japan Nuclear Firm Admits Missing Safety Checks at Disaster-Hit Plant

Documents show operator failed to carry out mandatory checks at Fukushima Daiichi and allowed fuel rods to pile up

by Justin McCurry in Osaka, The Guardian/UK, March 22, 2011

Read full article….

Phi Beta Iota: Integrity, or the lack of integrity, is the defining factor in the rise or fall of complex civilizations.  The harm coming from the lack of integrity by the members of the UN Security Council with respect to nuclear proliferation and safeguards for nuclear waste; the arms market (they are the largest traders), and the general disregard for poverty, infectious disease, and environmental degradation, makes it clear that “governance” today is totally corrupt.  The good news is that informed hybrid networks can overcome Industrial Era irresponsibilities.  Multinational information-sharing and multinational intelligence (decision-support) offers a non-violent way forward.

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Blocking the French, Too Little Too Late No Strategy

02 Diplomacy, 05 Energy, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Government, IO Sense-Making, Military, Peace Intelligence
Who, Me?

Libya, appears to me to be a US-UK venture, having little to do with Gaddafy. Rather, in significant part it is driven by the goal of squelching potential and logical French influence in the in the Middle East and its leadership in accommodating (establishing the terms of integration) Islam in Europe and the West.

Mr Malloch-Brown is one of the few legitimate contenders to Anglo statesmanship in this era. But I find the following to be misleading in trying to make the case that this was a worthy mission, but too hard to bring off diplomatically. I believe these to be talking points.

Mark Malloch-Brown: Diplomatic ‘triumph' at the UN is unravelling already

The Council might have begun by contemplating two clear political alternatives and then developing a military strategy that flowed from that choice

Independent UK, Tuesday 22 March 2011  Read article…

Phi Beta Iota: The sweeping public movements across North Africa and the Middle East are if anything an indictment of what one author calls the “fifty-year wound” and a validation of what another author calls the “unconquerable world.”  Vastly more benevolent strategic imperatives, such as Ambassador Mark Palmer's vision for providing all 44 dictators with an exit strategy (42 of them “best pals” of the USA at this time), have been ignored.