02 China – Page 25 – Public Intelligence Blog

Somalia: For the record. India, China and Japan have begun coordinated naval patrols off the Horn of Africa with the assistance of counter-piracy mechanism Shared Awareness and Deconfliction (SHADE), Indian navy sources said. This is the first time that these three have coordinated in this fashion, though all have been engaged in anti-piracy operations for several years.

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Phi Beta Iota: The old US model, of a very expensive and now unsustainable “forward presence” including over 1000 “locations” outside the USA, all prime targets for asymmetric attack, can be contrasted with the new Chinese model, of coordination, using shared information as the “loose glue” for building trust. The US has refused to entertain these notions since they began in force from 1988. The U.S. military is not thinking seriously about the future — for example, Hawaii as an autonomous state (if not a free Republic) that evicts all US forces as part of an internationalization and conversion to a Pacific “neutral” zone such as China has been thinking about for at least fifty years. Boneheads will label this idea insane. The more intelligent will plan for it. Put bluntly, the US Navy does not have a clue how to be influential in a sustainable (cost effective) manner in the Pacific or anywhere else, absent big bases, hundreds of billions, and tolerance for zero strategic smarts.

US Intelligence & Policy on China & Pakistan Lack Consistency & Common Sense (i.e. Integrity)

NIGHTWATCH Extract: China-Iran Rail + China ReCap

NIGHTWATCH Extracts: China-Fiji, China Carriers, Venezuela-Colombia Re-Set

2011/12/18

Chuck Spinney: German Economic Imperialism Killing Europe?

01 Brazil, 02 China, 03 Economy, 03 India, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 06 Russia, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Transnational Crime, Analysis, Civil Society, Commerce, Corruption, Government, Law Enforcement, Money, Banks & Concentrated Wealth, Policy, Power Behind-the-Scenes/Special Interests, White Papers

Will Germany Kill the Goose that Laid the Golden Egg?

Since the middle of the 19th Century, the central questions in European politics have been been have been the closely connected questions of nationalism and the rise of German power. As my good friend and eminent historian Gabriel Kolko shows in the brilliant essay attached below, the post war solutions of NATO and the European Union, together with the exigencies of the Cold War, put these questions on hold, but their fundamentals remained, sleeping beneath the surface, and today, the conflicting questions of nationalism and German power are again coming to the fore to create ominous problems for Europe and the world.

There can be no question that, until 2007 or so, the European Union — particularly the opening of borders, the free flow of labour and capital, the disappearance of tariffs, and diminution of non-tariff trade restrictions, etc. combined to make life better for the mass of average Europeans. Standards of living rose steeply and social services improved in parallel. This was particularly evident in the poorer EU countries on the southern rim. I saw and experienced this astounding improvement in the quality of life on a very personal level, living on a sailboat in southern Europe since the summer of 2005. I will never forget the comment made to me by an Italian psychologist in Calabria in 2006, which is the heart of the provincial south of Italy, “It is a great time to be a European.” To be sure, he was an educated member of the upper middle class, and not representative of the average Calabrian, but it struck me that this Calabrian saw himself as a European. It was not very long ago, that such a person would only loosely consider himself to be an Italian, not to mention a European.

2011/12/102011/12/10

NIGHTWATCH: China Leads Multinational Intelligence and Operations Initiative within Mekong River Basin

02 China, 03 Economy, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, 12 Water, Commerce, Military

China-Mekong River Nations: Chinese press reported that joint security patrols with Thailand, Laos and Burma/ Myanmar will begin along the Mekong River. At a ministerial meeting in Beijing, the four countries agreed to begin the first patrol before 15 December and that the operation's headquarters be located in China. The patrols will allow shipping to restart and guarantee security with China to help train and equip police in Laos and Myanmar.

Comment: Many younger Readers might not know that the Mekong River originates in southwest China and flows southwards through Southeast Asia to the South China Sea. The omission of Cambodia from the joint agreement indicates the security problems are in the upper reaches of the river. Thus, the security problems are in effect, inland waterways security issues along navigable waterways.

The interesting dynamic is the Chinese success in moving southward, by exploiting lapses of local security along a key waterway, to extend the Chinese sphere of influence. The Chinese have not had Chinese patrol boats or river security advisors on the Mekong along the Laos, Burma and Thai borders in centuries.

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Phi Beta Iota: Viet-Nam, long a co-equal and counter-weight to China in Southeast Asia, is not mentioned. As the map illuminates, Cambodia and Viet-Nam control the entry points to the Mekong River. Viet-Nam's control of the eastern coast also precludes–absent an agreement–an obvious option for future commerce, a major canal or rail cut from the Mekong east to Vinh, one of four Grade 1 cities in Viet-Nam, a major ground transport hub, and a notable port.

2011/12/042012/12/16

Thomas Briggs: No, China Does Not Have 3,000 Nuclear Weapons (Nor Does CIA Have Clandestine Assets Anywhere Relevant)

02 China, 10 Security, Academia, Budgets & Funding, Corruption, Director of National Intelligence et al (IC), DoD, Government, IO Deeds of War, Military, Peace Intelligence

Here is another posting related to this topic to balance the earlier piece from the Washington Post.

No, China Does Not Have 3,000 Nuclear Weapons

A study from Georgetown University incorrectly suggests that China has 3,000 nuclear weapons.The estimate is off by an order of magnitude.

By Hans M. Kristensen

EXTRACT:

According to the International Panel on Fissile Materials, China has produced an estimated 2 tons of plutonium for weapons. Some has been consumed in nuclear tests, leaving roughly 1.8 tons. The estimate is consistent with what the U.S. government has stated and theoretically enough for 450-600 warheads.

Total production of HEU is thought to have been approximately 20 tons. Some has been spent in nuclear tests and research reactor fuel, leaving a stockpile of some 16 tons. That’s theoretically enough for roughly 640-1,060 warheads.

Another critical material is Tritium, which is used in thermonuclear weapons. China probably only produces enough Tritium at its High-Flux Engineering Test Reactor (HFETR) in Jiajiang to maintain an arsenal of about 300 weapons.

The U.S. intelligence community concluded in 2009 that China likely has produced enough weapon-grade fissile material to meet its needs for the immediate future. In other words, no vast warhead expansion is in sight.

Thomas Briggs: Georgetown Students Scoop Secret World on China’s Tunnel System for Nuclear Weapons – or a PSYOP Against US Public?

02 China, 04 Education, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 07 Other Atrocities, 10 Security, Academia, Corruption, Government, IO Deeds of War, Military, Peace Intelligence

A wonderful example of what can be done with open source material!

Georgetown students shed light on China’s tunnel system for nuclear weapons

By William Wan

Washington Post, November 29, 2011

The Chinese have called it their “Underground Great Wall” — a vast network of tunnels designed to hide their country’s increasingly sophisticated missile and nuclear arsenal.

For the past three years, a small band of obsessively dedicated students at Georgetown University has called it something else: homework.

Read full article.

Phi Beta Iota: The ability of students to excel in relations to spies is not knew, even with hard targets such as China. For decades this web site and its antecedents have been saying “Do not send a spy where a schoolboy can go.” HOWEVER, in this specific case, with China as the target and the Pentagon budget on the line, there is a very high probability that the students are unwitting dupes in an illegal PSYOP being used to create an unethical justification for an ideological and political build-up against China, while protecting the bloated and extraordinarily corrupt Pentagon budget from the mandatory reductions agreed to in relation to the crisis at hand. Bottom line: the students have earned an A but the integrity of this endeavor is suspect.

2011/11/21

Theophilis Goodyear: China Credit Crashing

02 China, 03 Economy, Commerce, Commercial Intelligence, IO Impotency

Remember the footage in the “Inside Job” documentary of a single Chinese worker working in an otherwise empty giant factory? That factory could be productive, but the international currency system is preventing it.

That's the irony. If all the world's currencies collapse in one day, productive potential will be exactly the same as it was the day before, but production will fall idle all over the world because currency is the medium of exchange that facilitates production.

This is the main problem. If it's not fixed it will become an even bigger problem; but it will still be the same problem. Fix the currency problem and production will be up and running again. Don't fix it, and it will be The Day the Earth Stood Still (original version). And that day could drag into years if something isn't done about it.

A credit crisis in China's most enterprising city is making the country nervous: (article by Time Magazine)

Global Outlook Grim, China tells U.S. (article by Reuters)

2011/11/17

DefDog: Russia-Europe-China Ignore US Cyber-Fools

02 China, 03 Economy, 06 Russia, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Computer/online security, Corruption, Government, IO Impotency

Some background on this old report…..this conference has been going on for some time, fluctuates between Garmisch and Moscow…The US has offered to host it but has been consistently turned down. China showed up two years ago and the next conference (2012) is scheduled to be in Beijing…..if the US cannot, with is efforts in technological development, host a cyber conference it is indicative of what the rest of the world thinks of us….

Russia's Cyber Security Plans

As Washington airs plans for a new “cyber command,” a top Russian official discusses the threat of cyberweapons.

Phi Beta Iota: The lack of intelligence and integrity in the US Government is chillingly deep, especially within the US secret intelligence, and nowhere more irresponsible than within the National Security Agency/US Cyber-Command – both oxymorons. The Chinese are all over NSA and Cyber is not a Command.

Category: 02 China

NIGHTWATCH: China & Japan Coordinate Naval Patrols — DoD Clueless on Future in Pacific