US Loses Face & Standing with China & Pakistan

02 China, 02 Diplomacy, 05 Iran, 06 Russia, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Advanced Cyber/IO, Cultural Intelligence, Government, InfoOps (IO), Intelligence (government), Methods & Process, Military, Officers Call, Policy, Strategy, Threats

NIGHTWATCH Extract China-US: Special comment. International news services broadcast video and translations of Chinese Minister of Defense Liang insulting and hectoring the US, represented by the Secretary of Defense. The Chinese tasked Secretary Gates to defend and to explain to the Chinese why the US sells weapons to Taiwan and conducts naval training in the Yellow Sea. China demanded they stop. Instead of rejecting the Chinese demands and leaving, Gates tried to defend what needs not defense in Asia – US national policy.

A couple of points are worth noting. The tongue lashing Gates endured at a Singapore conference last year by a Chinese general clearly was no accident. That insult focused on the same issues as the latest.  Gates should have walked out of the Singapore meeting last year and should have walked out of today's session. It remains unclear what the US hoped to gain that merited humiliation.

China is not ready to be a cooperative partner in international security affairs as some analysts contend; resents and resists the tutelage or guidance that some analysts think the US must offer; and has no intention of becoming more open in response to US requests if only because the US wants it so badly.

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Phi Beta Iota: See our Memorandum on Chinese Irregular Warfare.  The US Government has hit bottom in terms of lacking legitimacy at home and credibility abroad.  Ideology is not a substitute for intelligence, and civility is not a substitute for cultural understanding.

US bends to Pakistan's wish

By M K Bhadrakumar Asia Times Online

The unscheduled visit by United States Vice President Joe Biden to Islamabad this week underscores Washington's embarrassment and anxiety that it stands excluded from a regional initiative on Afghan peace process that could be about to take off. The rapid sequence of events over the past fortnight has taken Washington by surprise.

Read entire analysis of role played by Turkey, Russia, and Iran…

DefDog Comment: Most insurgencies last past 10 years it almost always requires a political settlement….thus we are seeing what could have been accomplished at the beginning by understanding the Pashtun and sitting down, Jirga style, and asking for UBL, who was granted sanctuary under the Pasthun Honor Code, Pasthunwali…..no cultural understanding has resulted in a 10 year waste…

Phi Beta Iota: The US Government is suffering from multiple disconnects–from its public, from reality, from strategic analytics, from cultural intelligence–from ANY intelligence relevant to all challenges at all levels–and finally, from integrity.  Integrity is what allows well-intentioned people to cope with ambiguity.  When they give up their integrity, they yield the field to those with political, ideological, and financial ambitions, and the public interest suffers–as does the welfare of our Armed Forces in harm's way.

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Forecast 2011: Conflict Hotspots

23 December 2010

Protestor with face mask walks past street fire and crowds of other protestors, courtesy of Faramarz Hashemi/flickrPolitical hotzones 2011?

Where in the world will conflict flare in the new year? This special, expanded edition of ISN Insights examines three hotzones beyond the headlines: Pakistan, Tajikistan and the Northern Caucasus.


This special ISN Insights package contains the following content, easily navigated along the tab structure above – or via the hyperlinks below:

A 2011 Pakistani political forecast by Gregory Copley, President of the International Strategic Studies Association, who predicts a watershed year ahead for the Islamic Republic.

A look forward to the potential for further proliferation of terrorist activity in the North Caucasus – and how Russia should address it by Simon Saradzhyan, research fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center.

A close examination of Tajikistan's make-or-break year ahead by John CK Daly, non-resident fellow at the Johns Hopkins Central Asia-Caucasus Institute.

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Iranians (Persians) have viewed Russia (Soviet Union) with distrust and as a menace or outright threat for hundreds of years, at least since the Russian Tsars cemented their expansion into Turkestan (or the Turkic countries in what is now called Central Asia).  The fact that Iran sits on top of one of the world's largest reservoirs of oil and gas adds to their fears. Russia is also much closer to Iran than the United States.  So from a Russian perspective, the emergence of an Iranian nuclear delivery capability would be a far more dangerous ramifications for Russia than for the US, at least in raw geopolitical terms.

With this in mind, the attached report by Gareth Porter begs the question: Why are the Russians less concerned about the so-called Iranian ballistic missile/nuclear threat than the United States?  Why would the Washington Post and New York Times bias their reporting in a way that downplays the Russia's more moderate view?

To ask this question is to answer it. (hint: Simply ask what other country is most obsessed by Iran?)  Chuck

December 1, 2010

Documents Show NYT and Washington Post Shilling for US Government on Iran Missile “Threat”

Wikileaks Exposes Complicity of the Press

By GARETH PORTER

Counterpunch

A diplomatic cable from last February released by Wikileaks provides a detailed account of how Russian specialists on the Iranian ballistic missile program refuted the U.S. suggestion that Iran has missiles that could target European capitals or intends to develop such a capability.

In fact, the Russians challenged the very existence of the mystery missile the U.S. claims Iran acquired from North Korea.

But readers of the two leading U.S. newspapers never learned those key facts about the document.

The New York Times and Washington Post reported only that the United States believed Iran had acquired such missiles – supposedly called the BM-25 – from North Korea. Neither newspaper reported the detailed Russian refutation of the U.S. view on the issue or the lack of hard evidence for the BM-25 from the U.S. side.

Read the rest of this article….

Journal: China & Russia Dump US Dollar in Bi-Lateral Trading

02 China, 06 Russia, Commerce, Commercial Intelligence, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Money, Banks & Concentrated Wealth, Strategy
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China, Russia quit dollar

By Su Qiang and Li Xiaokun (China Daily)

Updated: 2010-11-24 08:02

St. Petersburg, Russia – China and Russia have decided to renounce the US dollar and resort to using their own currencies for bilateral trade, Premier Wen Jiabao and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin announced late on Tuesday.

Chinese experts said the move reflected closer relations between Beijing and Moscow and is not aimed at challenging the dollar, but to protect their domestic economies.”About trade settlement, we have decided to use our own currencies,” Putin said at a joint news conference with Wen in St. Petersburg.

. . . . . .

Premier Wen Jiabao shakes hands with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on a visit to St. Petersburg on Tuesday.ALEXEY DRUZHININ / AFP

The documents covered cooperation on aviation, railroad construction, customs, protecting intellectual property, culture and a joint communiqu. Details of the documents have yet to be released.

. . . . . .
Wen said at the press conference that the partnership between Beijing and Moscow has “reached an unprecedented level” and pledged the two countries will “never become each other's enemy”.

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Journal: Financial Intelligence Matters….

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Richard Wright

This article by Bill Gertz needs to be seen in perspective.  During the Cold War the Soviet Union as well as a number of other countries, including China were constantly engaged in trying to acquire U.S. Technology of all types through various means from industrial espionage to bribery.  The U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) was extremely concerned about this and the subject of illicit ‘international technology transfer’ to the Soviet Bloc (as well as a few other countries) generated numerous DOD requirements to such agencies as NSA and CIA. Much of the urgency of these requirements was downgraded precipitously when the Cold War ended. Also the number of incidents of foreign powers trying to acquire U.S. technology has declined in the 21st Century for a very sinister reason: the U.S. is no longer the sole leader in the research and development of advanced technologies that it was after WWII. Although incidents still occur, as the Chinese Huawei example shows, they are much less common than once was the case.  So DOD no doubt does not see the need for the same emphasis on loss of U.S. origin technology.

Yet financial intelligence is more than technology loss it also involves major illicit financial operations, such as money laundering, and financial operations in support of espionage and terrorism against U.S. interests. This of course includes the financial infra-structure supporting al Qaeda. If Ferguson is shutting this effort down as well he is making an unbelievable mistake.

This incident is symptomatic of an Intelligence System that is indeed out of control. In the absence of a viable strategic plan for intelligence collection, analysis, and production, every time some new crises occurs the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) resembles an ant hill that somebody has just stepped on. In the absence any real leadership or clearly defined purpose, the big four of the IC (CIA, DIA, NGA, and NSA) will continue to waste billions of dollars for minimal returns while resisting an efforts at meaningful reforms. At the same time the IC institutional bias against using non-classified (open) source information will ensure that they will only be able to provide very small windows that are of only limited usefulness to decision makers. What a way to go!

Phi Beta Iota: We are truly surprised that someone of Jim Clapper's caliber would allow an Acting Undersecretary no one has ever heard of to be named Acting in the first place; or that such an individual would do something this dumb without clearance from the DNI.  There are a couple of variations on a theme:  a) Clapper wants to make it obvious that Treasury is in enemy hands and DoD wants nothing to do with Treasury intelligence which does not exist–Treasury, like Energy and the other non-national security departments are patronage stove-pipes receiving direction from ideological idiots–they don't do “evidence-based” policy;  b) Clapper is finally thinking about holistic intelligence in support of Whole of Government, and having DoD drop financial intelligence is a preamble to elevating the Financial Intelligence Center in some manner.  On balance, as much as we admire the DNI, we think he has blown it–he will not accomplish anything consequential in the next few years by continuing to do the wrong things righter, and that is a shame, because so much could be accomplished in a mere 90-180 days, if he would empower those with the right mind-set to do the right things, which is to say, M4IS2 simultaneously with Whole of Government intelligence-support operations and the creation of a Smart Nation.

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NIGHTWATCH Extracts: Afghanistan, Russians, & Time

06 Russia, 08 Wild Cards

Afghanistan: An Afghan national army soldier fired on foreign troops at a military compound in Sangin district, Helmand province, Afghanistan, after which he sought refuge with the Taliban, who took him to a safe location, a Taliban spokesman said 5 November, Afghan Islamic Press reported. The NATO-led International Security Assistance Force's (ISAF) press office said it had received information about the incident and had launched an investigation to ascertain its veracity. The ISAF will release further details once the investigation is complete.

Comment: As noted previously, defection to the Taliban is contagious. Once it takes root among the Pashtuns, it will become unstoppable.

Taliban: A Taliban leader named Mullah Aminullah – an authentic associate of Mullah Omar — gave a televised interview to a Karachi television station in which he restated the longstanding Taliban position on negotiations. He said the Taliban will not engage in any peace talks as long as the Americans are in Afghanistan. The Taliban announced jihad when the infidels came to the country from everywhere, hence the movement will not negotiate. When these foreigners leave the country, the Taliban can speak about peace then.

Comment: Many would-be leaders pretend to speak for the Taliban without the authorization of Mullah Omar. Others pretend to speak for other anti-government groups, who are misinterpreted as the Taliban. Aminullah is in neither group. Taliban are in no hurry.

Russia-CSTO-US-Afghanistan:
Russia and six former Soviet republics in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) on Thursday urged NATO-led forces in Afghanistan to end their “ineffective tactics” of pushing militants from combat zones in the south to other areas, especially the once relatively peaceful north.

Russia's UN Ambassador Vitaly Churkin, speaking on behalf of the CSTO, told the UN General Assembly that four of the organization's members – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan – are in the central Asian region bordering Afghanistan and are concerned about the growing instability in the north caused by ineffective NATO tactics.

Churkin said the campaign by international and Afghan forces against Taliban and al-Qaida strongholds is ineffective because it is “squeezing militants from the combat zones, which allows them to maintain their combat power and relocate to other parts of the country including northbound.”

Churkin also said Russian troops engaged in anti-drug operations will continue. One Afghan elder in Shinwar District, Nangarhar Province said after last week's NATO-Russian-Afghan drug raid, that if he had known there were Russians, he would have killed them.

Comment: The Afghan presidency has accused the NATO command of agreeing to re-introduce Russian troops without his consent, even though Afghan police participated in the raid. The press accounts indicate somebody forgot to tell the Afghan president that the Russians are back.

Obviously there is more to the story than what is in the press. Nevertheless, any serious student of Afghanistan must know that the Pashtuns hate the Russians more than the Americans. The prospect of killing Russians is a larger recruiting incentive for the Taliban than killing Americans.

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