Pierre Sprey Skewers Chuck Spinny & Stephen Walt — Big Oil, Wall Street, and Military-Industrial Complex Destroying USA

03 Economy, 10 Security, 11 Society, Blog Wisdom, Civil Society, Commerce, Commercial Intelligence, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, IO Deeds of War, Military, Power Behind-the-Scenes/Special Interests, Strategy
Pierre Sprey

My good friend Pierre Sprey took issue with my characterization of Steven Walt's critique of US grand strategy as being excellent subject to two omissions.  Attached herewith are Pierre's comments — they are spot on, and I stand corrected on my characterization of “excellent” … or perhaps more accurately … I stand clearly and fairly skewered.  😉

Chuck Spinney
Cap Ferrat, France

Comments by Pierre Sprey:

Chuck,

Although I appreciate that Mr. Walt's heart is in the right place–particularly regarding his admirably staunch opposition to the malign influence of the Israelis, the neocons and “W”–his essay's concept of US grand strategy for the last two decades is just as shallow as the crap from the NYT, the WSJ, the Post and the Council on Foreign Relations. He commits the two fundamental errors common to nearly all foreign policy pundits, errors that inevitably reduce their beard-stroking discussions of “grand strategy” to silliness:

1. He assumes that the US has a foreign policy or a grand strategy when in fact it has none. The US government's actions, like every other country's, are dominated by its domestic politics. And those politics dominate every move made with regard to other countries.

2. He ignores the three most powerful–and most permanent–domestic influences on America's actions abroad: Big Oil, Wall Street and the MICC. Anybody who ignores these three in recounting U.S. actions abroad is either a) hopelessly out of touch, or b) is serving the interests of the defense, financial or oil establishments, or all three.

Aside from these two crippling errors in his reasoning, Mr. Walt's fulsome praise for the success of the USG's “offshore balancing”–that is, the Big Oil (and MICC) inspired policy of setting Iran and Iraq at each other's throats since the 1940s–shows either profound ignorance or profound Kissingerian cynicism.

One last piece of silliness in the Walt essay, quite common to journalists and historians seeking a “hook” for their American Empire story, is the idea of the August 2, 1990 “turning point”, a date that marks the beginning of the decline in our allegedly successful empire. Such hooks only mask the inescapable spread of rot within empires, usually starting at birth.

With Mr. Walt's help, I am coming to believe all public discussions of grand strategy should be greeted with howls of derisive laughter.

Pierre

Post Under Discussion:

Chuck Spinney: Madness in White House, K Street Thrives

Patrick Meier: Building Resilient Societies

11 Society, Blog Wisdom
Patrick Meier

On Building Resilient Societies to Mitigate the Impact of Disasters

I recently caught up with a colleague at the World Bank and learned that “resilience” is set to be the new “buzz word” in the international development community. I think this is very good news. Yes, discourse does matter. A single word can alter the way we frame problems. They can lead to new conceptual frameworks that inform the design and implementation of development projects and disaster risk reduction strategies.

The term resilience is important because it focuses not on us, the development and disaster community, but rather on local at-risk communities. The terms “vulnerability” and “fragility” were used in past discourse but they focus on the negative and seem to invoke the need for external protection, overlooking the possibility that local coping mechanisms do exist. From the perspective of this top-down approach, international organizations are the rescuers and aid does not arrive until they arrive.

Resilience, in contrast, implies radical self-sufficiency, and self-sufficien-cy suggests a degree of autonomy; self-dependence rather than dependence on an external entity that may or may not arrive, that may or may not be effective, and that may or may not stay the course. In the field of ecology, the term resilience is defined as “the capacity of an ecosystem to respond to a perturbation or disturbance by resisting damage and recovering quickly.” There are thus at least two ways for “social ecosystems” to be resilient:

  1. Resist damage by absorbing and dampening the perturbation.
  2. Recover quickly by bouncing back.

So how does a society resist damage from a disaster? As noted in an earlier blog post, “Disaster Theory for Techies“, there is no such thing as a “natural disaster”. There are natural hazards and there are social systems. If social systems are sufficiently resilient to absorb the impact of a natural hazard such as an earthquake, then disaster unfolds. In other words, hazards are exogenous while disasters are the result of endogenous political, economic, social and cultural processes. Indeed, “it is generally accepted among environmental geographers that there is no such thing as a natural disaster. In every phase and aspect of a disaster—causes, vulnerability, preparedness, results and response, and reconstruction—the contours of disaster and the difference between who lives and dies is to a greater or lesser extent a social calculus.”

Read more….

John Robb: Second Global Depression (D2) 2008-2018+

03 Economy, 11 Society, Blog Wisdom
John Robb

Friday, 05 August 2011

JOURNAL: D2, The Second Global Economic Depression

D2 is shorthand for the second global economic depression.  It started formally in 2008, and despite a short respite over the last two years, it never left.  It was only delayed by massive amounts of government intervention.  It is now back in force.

D2, given the forces driving it, is going to last a decade or more.  Simple prepping might help a little but it's far from what is going to be required given its duration.

This depression will fundamentally reorder the economic, political and social landscape.  When it ends, most of the global institutions and markets we see today will mere husks of what they are today.

What will replace them?  That's up to you.

Patrick Meier: Crisis Crowd Sourcing the Diaspora

Advanced Cyber/IO, Blog Wisdom, Civil Society, Collective Intelligence, Cultural Intelligence, Earth Intelligence, IO Deeds of Peace, IO Technologies, Policies
Patrick Meier

Crisis Mapping Somalia with the Diaspora

The state of Minnesota is home to the largest population of Somalis in North America. Like any Diaspora, the estimated 25,000 Somalis who live there ar closely linked to family members back home. They make thousands of phone calls every week to numerous different locations across Somalia. So why not make the Somali Diaspora a key partner in the humanitarian response taking place half-way across the world?

In Haiti, Mission 4636 was launched to crowdsource micro needs assessments from the disaster affected population via SMS. The project could not have happened without hundreds of volunteers from the Haitian Diaspora who translated and geo-referenced the incoming text messages. There’s no doubt that Diasporas can play a pivotal role in humanitarian response but they are typically ignored by large humanitarian organizations. This is why I’m excited to be part of an initiative that plans to partner with key members of the Diaspora to create a live crisis map of Somalia.

Read more….

See Also:

Ushahidi & The Unprecedented Role of SMS in Disaster Response

John Robb: Solar-Power Water Treatment Plus…

Blog Wisdom
John Robb

Some items of interest:

Reference: No More Secrets – Open Source Intelligence/Intelligence Reform Fight Round II

Advanced Cyber/IO, Blog Wisdom, Collaboration Zones, Communities of Practice, Ethics, Key Players, Officers Call, Policies, Serious Games, Threats
Amazon Page

Updated 4 Aug 2011 to add M4IS2

Multinational, Multiagency, Multidisciplinary, Multidomain Information-Sharing and Sense-Making (M4IS2)

2012 Manifesto for Truth: Expanding the Open Source Revolution (Evolver Editions, July 2012)

2010: Human Intelligence (HUMINT) Trilogy Updated

2010 INTELLIGENCE FOR EARTH: Clarity, Diversity, Integrity, & Sustainability

2006 Briefing to the Coalition Coordination Center (CCC) Leadership at the U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM)–Multinational Intelligence: Can CENTCOM Lead the Way? Reflections on OSINT & the Coalition

– – – – – – –

Short Review by Retired Reader

Long Review by Robert Steele

Reference: Open Source Agency (OSA) III

Reference: Open Source Agency (OSA) II

Reference: Open Source Agency (OSA) I

See Also:

Continue reading “Reference: No More Secrets – Open Source Intelligence/Intelligence Reform Fight Round II”

John Robb: Operation Shady Rat vs Sleeping Dog

03 Economy, Advanced Cyber/IO, Blog Wisdom
John Robb

Operation Shady Rat. Sustained, silent, IP theft from 70 organizations across 14 countries.  More.  What we have witnessed over the past five to six years has been nothing short of a historically unprecedented transfer of wealth — closely guarded national secrets (including from classified government networks), source code, bug databases, email archives, negotiation plans and exploration details for new oil and gas field auctions, document stores, legal contracts, SCADA configurations, design schematics and much more has “fallen off the truck” of numerous, mostly Western companies and disappeared in the ever-growing electronic archives of dogged adversaries.

Phi Beta Iota:  This is not new!  What is new is the desperation of the Pentagon and its contractors to find a new threat justifying gross waste in the face of new taxpayer outrage over borrowing a trillion a year to pay for things we do not need and cannot afford.  What most do not understand is that those nations that do industrial espionage on this scale also have the brains to devote humans to the cherry-picking task, which is non-trivial and labor intensive.  CIA and NSA have never been about a sufficiency of humans–at CIA, in the early days of cyber-espionage, one reports officer walked off the job when handed a print-out of everything stolen in one pass by one device.  Cyber-war is a scam, plain and simple.  We should be focusing on responsible communications and computing architectures, and on open sources of information in 183 languages we don't understand.  Until then, Shady Rat will continue to kick Sleeping Dog's ass.

See Also:

Graphic: Cyber-Threat 101

2010: OPINION–America’s Cyber Scam

The Cyber Racket

Reference: Bruce Schneier on Cyber War & Cyber Crime

Review: War by Other Means–Economic Espionage in America

Review: Friendly Spies–How America’s Allies Are Using Economic Espionage to Steal Our Secrets