Category: Methods & Process

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Mini-Me: End of the Delusional UAV Era

05 Iran, 08 Wild Cards, Corruption, DoD, InfoOps (IO), Intelligence (government), IO Deeds of War, Methods & Process, Military, Technologies
Who? Mini-Me?

The Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) rose to prominence in an era of uncontested budget growth (including a borrowed trillion dollars a year) and uncontested airspace.  That era is now over.

There will still be a place for mico-UAVs, especially in direct support of small unit operations, but neither the US military nor the US secret intelligence world consider infantry solutions to be “expensive enough” to be worth doing well.

For those who lack the sophistication to hack control over a UAV and force its undamaged landing, Electromagnetic Pulse rays remain the generic counter-measure that will proliferate rapidly.

NIGHTWATCH:

Point and Shoot...

Pakistan: Any unmanned aerial vehicles, including US UAVs, entering Pakistani air space will be treated as hostile and shot down per a new defense policy, a senior Pakistani official said on 10 December.

Comment: Pakistani forces lack the capabilities to execute the directive as announced, but the loss of one or two drones would be enough to curtail the program because of the expense from multiple aircraft losses. The program is not sustainable in contested airspace. This declaration has been coming for a very long time.

Algeria-US-France: For the record. US and French unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) will not be allowed to fly over Algeria's southern airspace to counter weapons smuggling from Libya, according to El Khabar newspaper. Algeria will increase its reconnaissance of UAV air surveillance operations.

Comment: The Iranians will be quick to disseminate any insights they developed in downing a US reconnaissance drone. Algeria might not yet have Iran's insights but it is showing that it is open to Iranian help.

NIGHTWATCH KGS Home

See Also:

DefDog: Iran Hijacks US Drone Shows Film + RECAP

Dolphin: Their Drones, Our Drones, and EMP Rays

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2011 Robert Steele: Global Trends 2030 – Gaps + RECAP

Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Director of National Intelligence et al (IC), Earth Intelligence, Government, IO Impotency, Methods & Process, Officers Call
Robert David STEELE Vivas

UPDATE 11 December 2012:  The report is now out.  The below commentary was posted 12 December 2011, one year prior to the final report.  Global Trends 2030: Full Copy (166 Pages) Here, Review by Robert Steele — Report Lauds Fracking as Energy Solution, Disappoints on Multiple Fronts

Although Global Trends 2030 will not be released by the US secret intelligence community until after the November 2012 election, minutes of the 22-24 May 2011 meeting are available and provide a useful panorama of what the group is and is not considering.

Original Source (PDF 14 Pages)

Back-Up Source (PDF 14 Pages)

A few observations:

1.  They still do not have  a Strategic Analytic Model, nor do they understand in any systematic manner the preconditions and precipitants of revolution, or the cultural fundamentals.

Click on Image to Enlarge

2.  They are so beholden to status quo science they actually consider the exploitation of shale gas and oil to be a serious positive–lacking a strategic analytic model, it does not occur to them to examine the true cost of such initiatives, e.g. water, environmental degradation, etcetera.  They do not “get” the fragmentation of knowledge as being among the chief obstacles to creating strategic intelligence.

3.  They are oblivious to the “eight tribes“* while creeping up on government-business collaboration (and clearly also oblivious to the fact that this is actually plutocracy and corporate capture, not collaboration).

* Academia, Civil Society [inclusive of labor and religion], Commerce, Government [all levels], Law Enforcement, Media, Military, Non-Governmental / Non-Profit.

Continue reading “2011 Robert Steele: Global Trends 2030 – Gaps + RECAP”

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Steven Aftergood: CIA Classifies Open Source Works

04 Education, 07 Other Atrocities, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Director of National Intelligence et al (IC), Government, Intelligence (government), IO Impotency, Methods & Process, Officers Call
Steven Aftergood

Charter of Open Source Org is Classified, CIA Says

Open Source Works, which is the CIA’s in-house open source analysis component, is devoted to intelligence analysis of unclassified, open source information.  Oddly, however, the directive that established Open Source Works is classified, as is the charter of the organization.  In fact, CIA says the very existence of any such records is a classified fact.

“The CIA can neither confirm nor deny the existence or nonexistence of records responsive to your request,” wrote Susan Viscuso, CIA Information and Privacy Coordinator, in a November 29 response to a Freedom of Information Act request from Jeffrey Richelson of the National Security Archive for the Open Source Works directive and charter.

“The fact of the existence or nonexistence of requested records is currently and properly classified and is intelligence sources and methods information that is protected from disclosure,” Dr. Viscuso wrote.

This is a surprising development since Open Source Works — by definition — does not engage in clandestine collection of intelligence.  Rather, it performs analysis based on unclassified, open source materials.

Thus, according to a November 2010 CIA report, Open Source Works “was charged by the [CIA] Director for Intelligence with drawing on language-trained analysts to mine open-source information for new or alternative insights on intelligence issues. Open Source Works’ products, based only on open source information, do not represent the coordinated views of the Central Intelligence Agency.”

As such, there is no basis for treating Open Source Works as a covert, unacknowledged intelligence organization.  It isn’t one.

Continue reading “Steven Aftergood: CIA Classifies Open Source Works”

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Venessa Miemis: US Cultural Narrative is Broken

Cultural Intelligence, Methods & Process
Venessa Miemis

Essential Skills for 21st Century Survival: Part 6: Storytelling

The following video by Jonah Sachs, creative director at Free Range Studios has prompted me to get back to completing the next installment in this Essential Skills series. He does a beautiful job revealing the secrets of effective and high-impact storytelling.

Jonah Sachs at Compostmodern '11

One of the concepts Jonah presents is that of a “myth gap.” He defines ‘myth’ as the combination of Explanation + Meaning + Story. Historically, myths are the vehicles of culture. They provide a context and framework for the world, hopefully imparting wisdom, insight and guidance as to how we should live our lives. (ie – myth of Genesis). But sometimes, society falls in a myth gap.

Like now.

Another way of saying this is that the cultural narrative is broken.

. . . . . . .

So what are some stories shaping culture today?

Well here’s a few that I’ve been listening to and weaving into the architecture of my own mind:

  • Makers, hackers, prosumers, and cultural creatives are the driving force of the new economy.
  • It makes practical sense to support local economies, buy food that’s grown regionally when possible, and build resilience by creating infrastructures designed to weather uncertainty.
  • The “future of money” is about cooperation over competition. We’re llearning how to intelligently share resources, build value together, and display integrity in thought, word and action – which is then reflected in a boost of social currencies like reputation, influence, trust, authority, and access to opportunities.
  • Mindless consumption is uninspiring, and ultimately a distraction from engaging in the types of behavior that actually lead to sustained happiness. These include: spending time with people we love, having goals and actively working towards accomplishing them, and cultivating gratitude daily for having the opportunity to experience Life.

These are just a few narratives that keep me inspired and motivated these days.

What stories are guiding you towards a more meaningful future?

In today’s polarized and fractured narrative landscape, the winners are those who can get above the noise and weave new mythologies that act as a beacon of light for the path ahead. As a wise man once said:

Those who tell the stories rule society. ~ Plato

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Patrick Meier: Amplifying Somali Voices Here and Now

08 Wild Cards, Advanced Cyber/IO, Blog Wisdom, Civil Society, Cultural Intelligence, Methods & Process, Mobile, Technologies
Patrick Meier

Amplifying Somali Voices Using SMS and a Live Map: #SomaliaSpeaks

[Cross-posted from my post on the Ushahidi blog]

Somalia has been steadily slipping from global media attention over the past few months. The large scale crisis is no longer making headline news, which means that advocacy and lobbying groups are finding it increasingly difficult to place pressure on policymakers and humanitarian organizations to scale their intervention in the Horn of Africa. I recently discussed this issue with Al-jazeera’s Social Media Team whilst in Doha and pitched a project to them which has just gone live this hour.

The joint project combines the efforts of multiple partners including Al-Jazeera, Ushahidi, Souktel, Crowdflower, the African Diaspora Institute and the wider Somali Diaspora. The basis of my pitch to Al-jazeera was to let ordinary Somalis speak for themselves by using SMS to crowdsource their opinions on the unfolding crisis.

. . . . . . .

I am often reminded of what my friend Anand Giridharadasof the New York Times wrote last year vis-a-vis Ushahidi. To paraphrase:

They used to say that history is written by the victors. But today, before the victors win, if they win, there is a chance to scream out with a text message, a text message that will not vanish, a text message that will remain immortalized on a map for the world to bear witness. What would we know about what passed between Turks and Armenians, Germans and Jews, Hutus and Tutsis, if every one of them had had the chance, before the darkness, to declare for all time:

“I was here, and this is what happened to me”?

Read full post with sample text messages and next steps.

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John Robb: Technology, Corruption, & Depressions

03 Economy, 09 Justice, Blog Wisdom, Commerce, Corruption, Government, Methods & Process, Technologies
John Robb

Technology Shifts and Economic Depression

Joseph Stiglitz (the Nobel prize winning economist) has a great new article: “The Book of Jobs“(behind Vanity Fair's paywall, sorry).   In it, he makes a convincing case that the first global depression was caused by a process similar to what we are seeing today (I'm very happy somebody in the social sciences is actually attempting to show how technological change was a driver of the first depression, it's about time).  Here it is in a nutshell:first depression, it's about time).

  1. Technological change in the form of the internal combustion engine (cars, tractors, trucks) improved transportation and farm productivity.  This led to an agricultural revolution that impacted a huge percentage of the US population.
  2. Farm productivity soared and prices dropped.  This forced many farmers into bankruptcy and led to a steady migration of people from rural to urban locations driving down incomes/demand.
  3. The downward pressure on incomes this caused resulted in a protraced economic depression that only ended when the US and Europe mobilized/nationalized every segment of the economy during WW2 (put everyone to work, trained them, etc.).

At this point in the article Stiglitz stumbles.

Continue reading “John Robb: Technology, Corruption, & Depressions”