Journal: The Demise of US Intelligence Qua Brains

Collaboration Zones, Communities of Practice, Ethics, Information Operations (IO), Key Players, Methods & Process, Mobile, Policies, Real Time, Reform, Strategy, Threats
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sensible memo from BTC: Aviation Security After Detroit
INDUSTRY ANALYSIS: Aviation System Security
Business Travel Coalition December 27, 2009
By Kevin Mitchell

The Christmas attempt by a Nigerian man with PETN (one of the most powerful explosives known) affixed to his body to cause harm to an internationally-originated Delta Air Lines flight on approach to Detroit shone a bright light on much that is wrong with the U.S. approach to aviation system security. It is welcome news that President Obama has ordered an airline industry security review so long as it is strategic in nature.

. . . . . . .

The immediate post 9/11 security priority for the U.S. was to prevent a commercial airline from ever again being used as a weapon-of-mass-destruction. Airport screening was strengthened substantially, the Air Marshall program was expanded, cabin and cockpit crews were trained in advanced anti-terrorism techniques, many pilots were armed, F-14s were placed on alert, and most importantly, cockpit doors were reinforced and passengers were forever transformed from passive participants in a time of threat to able defenders. All of this was accomplished within a relatively short period of time after the U.S. was attacked on 9/11.

From that point forward the highest and best use of each incremental security dollar spent should have been on intelligence gathering, risk-management analysis and sharing, and on fundamental police work such that terrorists would never reach an airport, much less board an airplane. What does the immediate investigation into the near-calamity on Christmas reveal?

• The father of the accused terrorist, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, informed U.S. officials months ago that he was concerned about his son’s extreme religious views. Not a friend, not a teacher, but his very own father issued the warning!

• The accused Nigerian is in the Terrorist Identities Datamart Environment database (550K names) maintained by the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center. While not on the selectee list (14K names) or no-fly list (4K names), should not some of our scarce security dollars have been used to ensure that he was placed on the selectee list, questioned and subjected to extra searching prior to being allowed to board the Detroit-bound flight from Amsterdam?

U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano appeared today on ABC’s This Week show and unabashedly steered clear of government accountability arguing that the U.S. did not have enough information to keep the accused man from boarding the flight or to add him to the selectee or no-fly list. However, his very father warned us! Moreover, the UK’s Daily Mail reports that Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab was banned from Britain; his last visa request refused! That the suspect did not but should have received additional questioning and physical screening is where the U.S. government’s focus should be, versus on the in-flight security illusion of restricted passenger movement, if it is intended to be more that temporary.

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Journal: Director of National Intelligence Alleges….

Collaboration Zones, Communities of Practice, Ethics, Key Players, Methods & Process, Policies, Reform, Strategy, Threats
Shifting Gold Bars Sank the Rust BucketPhi Beta Iot

Phi Beta Iota:  Our commentary was posted 19 Dec 09, well prior to the two debacles:

Journal: Underpants Bomber Shines Light on Naked USG–Without Four Reforms, USA Locked in Place

Journal: Death of CIA Personnel in Afghanistan

Original Op-Ed Online

Strengthening Our Nation's Front Line Of Defense

By Dennis C. Blair

Friday, December 18, 2009

Phi Beta Iota:  This is a seriously misleading article, our comments are provided after each paragraph.

The legislation authorizing post-Sept. 11 intelligence reform — the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 — was signed into law five years ago this week. We are often asked whether the new organizations, authorities and additional resources have made a difference. The answer is yes.

Phi Beta Iota:  In combination with the Patriot Act, which was not read before passage, the legislation has perpetuated all of the bad practices of the past and poured gasoline on the fire by giving incompetent intelligence managers more money. America is less safe today because of the combination of $75 billion a year wasted on a system that still does not process more than 10% of what it collects, still cannot do machine speed multi-lingual exploitation, and still cannot do multinational human engagement and multi-lingual open source.

To be clear, the task of reinventing our intelligence structure and integrating the capabilities, cultures and information technologies of 16 diverse intelligence agencies is massive, and it is incomplete. Problems persist in our technologies, business practices and mind-sets. I have no illusions about how challenging they will be to overcome. But there is an ocean of difference between difficult and impossible.

Phi Beta Iota:  Every single criticism in ON INTELLIGENCE: Spies and Secrecy in an Open World (AFCEA, 2000) remains valid today.  NOTHING HAS CHANGED in the way of fundamentals.  The clandestine service is still full of cowboys under official cover; there still is no processing; the CIA analysts are babies and the DIA analysts are brain dead; technical sources are too big, too late, and too expensive; the list is long.  Analysts still spend a quarter of their time trying to access the disparate classified databases at the same time that the Open Source Center remains a national disgrace, unable to do multinational engagement and totally out of touch with the 80% of the information we need that is free, open, and in 183 languages we do not speak. Note: Blair has a set of Steele's book in his possession, he obviously has not read them or this article of his would be completely different. He has no power, no authority, no vision, and with the possible exception of Andy Shepard, no one with a proven track record of knowing what is actually needed–Shepard knew in 1992 and has had to wait 17 years to be heard.

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Reference: One Tribe at a Time by Steven Pressfield

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 08 Wild Cards, Civil Society, Cultural Intelligence, Methods & Process, Military, Peace Intelligence, Strategy
Righteous Good Stuff
Righteous Good Stuff

This blog is that of  Steven Pressfield is the author of Gates of Fire and four other historical novels set in the ancient world, including The Afghan Campaign. His most recent book is Killing Rommel, a WWII story. He is also the author of The Legend of Bagger Vance and The War of Art.

The blog entries below begin with a feature of the work now available in the full original,  Reference: One Tribe at a Time by Maj Jim Gant and then segue into new work by Steven Pressfield.

Interview w/Tribal Chief #11: Pakistan, continued

One Tribe At A Time #10: A Report from embedded journalist Andrew Lubin

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Journal: Obliviousness–and Lies–Kill Own’s Own

Collaboration Zones, Communities of Practice, Ethics, Key Players, Policies, Strategy, Threats

Full Story Online
Full Story Online

That Tap Water Is Legal but May Be Unhealthy

The 35-year-old federal law regulating tap water is so out of date that the water Americans drink can pose what scientists say are serious health risks — and still be legal.

Only 91 contaminants are regulated by the Safe Drinking Water Act, yet more than 60,000 chemicals are used within the United States, according to Environmental Protection Agency estimates. Government and independent scientists have scrutinized thousands of those chemicals in recent decades, and identified hundreds associated with a risk of cancer and other diseases at small concentrations in drinking water, according to an analysis of government records by The New York Times.

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Journal: US Has No Strategy…

Strategy

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Full Story Online

Overall Strategy Is Needed

U.S. can't prevail with piecemeal approaches

By Lawrence J. Korb, Sean Duggan and Laura Conley

When President Obama announced his decision to deploy 30,000 additional troops to Afghanistan, he presented a clear argument for why he believes U.S. national security is threatened by violence and extremism in that country and in the region.

What was missing from the speech, however, was a sense of how and to what degree continued U.S. involvement in that region fits into the United States' comprehensive national security agenda. That evaluation is the key to keeping U.S. foreign policy consistent and balanced, and should be based on the president's national security strategy (NSS).

Almost one year has passed since Mr. Obama's inauguration, and the White House has yet to issue that seminal document.

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Journal: Pakistan-Afghanistan War

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 05 Energy, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Terrorism, 10 Security, Government, Military, Peace Intelligence, Strategy

Phi Beta Iota: Zbigniew Brzezinski is doing an enormous amount of damage in his hidden counsel to the White House; if John Hamre replaces Bob Gates in January as has been discussed, this will get worse, not better.  Below are a few odds and ends from various contributing editors, consolidated here to avoid beating a dead horse with too many postings.   We have not sought to reconcile contradictory points of view, only to honor the importance of listening to diverse points of view.   The London Telegraph piece is reproduced in full as it has disappeared from online view.

Chuck Spinney Sends on Religious Fundamentalism and the Rise of the Corporate State on What Is Living and What Is Dead in Social Democracy? on Soldiers’ Complaints of Shoddy Gear Spur Inquiry by House Democrats

Webster Tarpley Sends on Obama's War Against Pakistan on End the War Rally Videos on  No Wind of Change After Obama's Nobel Peace Prize

Obama’s West Point speech of December 1 represents far more than the obvious brutal escalation in Afghanistan — it is nothing less than a declaration of all-out war by the United States against Pakistan.

Victor Davis Hansen on  Obama’s Wheel of Fortune: The president’s luck has changed — and he doesn’t seem to have noticed

Marcus Aurelius Sends:  Special Forces Unite To Destroy Taliban Leaders London Sunday Telegraph  December 13, 2009  Pg. 2 By Sean Rayment, Defence Correspondent

British and US special forces are set to open a new front in southern Afghanistan in a bid to “break the back” of the Taliban insurgency.

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Reference: General McCaffrey’s Trip Report on AF

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 08 Wild Cards, Analysis, Budgets & Funding, Military, Peace Intelligence, Policy, Strategy
General Barry McCaffrey, USA (Ret)
General Barry McCaffrey, USA (Ret)
Afghanistan Trip Report
Afghanistan Trip Report

After Action Report–General Barry McCaffrey, USA (Ret)

Visit to Kuwait and Afghanistan 10-18 Nov 09

11 pages

Extracted points

01 Phenomenally useful report with too much cheerleading.  This is a 10-year regional war, State Department and AID are pulling out for next several years (too dangerous), costing us roughly half per day what we paid for all of WW II per day.  Allies not really showing up and being effective, less the British.

02  Talked to Generals, Ambassadors, and Ministers–no Captions, no village chiefs.  Nothing in her on intelligence, glosses over the C4I and protocol issues (see Journal: Beyond Weber to Epoch B Leadership).

03  Achilles' heels are multiple: 90% of the logistics come through Karachi, Pakistan and then overland. Without fire support and aviation this war is lost.  Taliban now up to battalion-sized operations and believe they have high moral ground and time on their side.  100% US movement by air.  (See Review: Firepower In Limited War; aviation sounds like a repeat of Viet-Nam; only thing keeping logistics open are the same decision made by NVA in Viet-Nam and by Iran-Syria in Iraq: better to let the Americans bleed themselves to death than cut their main supply line.

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