Ralph Peters: The Birth of Modern War – How the 1860’s Changed War, and the World

04 Inter-State Conflict, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Military, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence

Ralph Peters
Ralph Peters

First published by Armchair General.  Full text online for ease of automated translation.

In document form (15 pages):  2013-05-09 Ralph Peters Birth of Modern Warfare

THE BIRTH OF MODERN WAR

How the 1860s Changed the Fields of Battle Forever

By Ralph Peters

     The ten-year span that began with the American Civil War in 1861 and climaxed with a Prussian-led German army besieging Paris in 1870 changed warfare as profoundly as—and certainly more abruptly than—the introduction of steel blades or the development of gunpowder weapons.  That decade dramatically altered strategic and operational mobility, military communications, killing power, the relative value of combat arms and the tactics for employing them, the composition of armies, logistics, and medical care for the wounded (while navies moved to steam-driven ironclads mounting long-range guns).  A consideration of military leadership across the decade should teach us not to mock the inability of most generals to adjust to a disorienting environment, but to marvel at the few who managed to figure things out—despite the crushing weight of legacy thinking.

     The complexity of warfare exploded as the strategic pace accelerated.  And one rarely noted determinant of victory may, in fact, have been the decisive factor: literacy.  In the end, the armies with the soldiers who could read were the armies that were able to adapt–those of the United States and Prussia.  (Indeed, our contemporary experience in attempting to professionalize Afghan troops underscores the degree to which literacy is the fundamental building block of military modernity.)

     As this epochal decade approached, Napoleon’s shadow clouded the thinking of even the most-able generals.  Only outliers, such as Grant and von Moltke, escaped his thrall, while Napoleonic maxims, codified by Jomini and others, excused less-able leaders from thinking at all.  The 1860s came as a series of thunderbolts, following the confused military actions of the previous decade.  Even as steam power allowed for more rapid strategic concentration in the 1850s, European armies assembling in a theater of war had made no doctrinal advances since Waterloo.  Indeed, the allied armies that landed in the Crimea marched more slowly than had the troops of either the Duke of Wellington or Napoleon.  English rifles slaughtered Russian infantrymen, but English generals (and cholera) squandered English soldiers.  And when the Piedmontese and French fought the Austrians in Italy in 1859, the battles of Magenta and Solferino were clumsy bloodbaths that convinced generals that very little had changed on the tactical battlefield.  New rifles in the hands of poorly trained, unmotivated and ineptly led Austrian soldiers proved useless against superior leadership—resulting in a failure to appreciate the killing power of massed rifled weapons.

     Soon enough the race would be on to find generals who could think as fast as modern weapons could kill.

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Stephen E. Arnold: A Fresh Look at Big Data & Big Data (-) Human Factor (+) Transformation (+) RECAP

Access, Advanced Cyber/IO, Architecture, Collective Intelligence, Communities of Practice, Cultural Intelligence, Design, Earth Intelligence, Ethics, Key Players, Peace Intelligence, Policies, Strategy, Threats
Stephen E. Arnold
Stephen E. Arnold

A Fresh Look at Big Data

May 8, 2013

Next week I am doing an invited talk in London. My subject is search and Big Data. I will be digging into this notion in this month’s Honk newsletter and adding some business intelligence related comments at an Information Today conference in New York later this month. (I have chopped the number of talks I am giving this year because at my age air travel and the number of 20 somethings at certain programs makes me jumpy.)

I want to highlight one point in my upcoming London talk; namely, the financial challenge which companies face when they embrace Big Data and then want to search the information in the system and search the Big Data system’s outputs.

Click on Image to Enlarge
Click on Image to Enlarge

Notice that precision and recall has not improved significantly over the last 30 years. I anticipate that many search vendors will tell me that their systems deliver excellent precision and recall. I am not convinced. The data which I have reviewed show that over a period of 10 years most systems hit the 80 to 85 percent precision and recall level for content which is about a topic. Content collections composed of scientific, technical, and medical information where the terminology is reasonably constrained can do better. I have seen scores above 90 percent. However, for general collections, precision and recall has not been improving relative to the advances in other disciplines; for example, converting structured data outputs to fancy graphics.

 

I don’t want to squabble about precision and recall. The main point is that when an organization mashes Big Data with search, two curves must be considered. The first is the complexity curve. The idea is that search is a reasonably difficult system to implement in an effective manner. The addition of a Big Data system adds another complex task. When two complex tasks are undertaken at the same time, the costs go up.

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Mini-Me: Israel Finally Has a Master — China

02 China, 08 Wild Cards, Ethics, Peace Intelligence
Who?  Mini-Me?
Who? Mini-Me?

Huh?

Will China Become the New Mideast Mediator?

By Dr Stuart Jeanne Bramhall

Good thing I have access to CCTV-English (Chinese state television) for international news or I would have totally missed the scoop that Israeli president Benjamin Netanyahu has frozen new settlement activity in the Palestinian West Bank. CCTV-English is a free channel on Freeview, New Zealand’s free digital hook-up.

I suspect this relates to China recently surpassing Australia as our most important trade partner. It looks like World War III is about to break out any day now in Syria. Thus what I like most about CCTV-English is that they have a correspondent in Damascus (unlike US networks, the BBC or even Al Jazeera) with sources among rebel groups and the Syrian military. .

Two nights ago, I was really intrigued to learn that Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in China at the time of the Israeli air strikes on Syria. So was Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas. This was no accident, as China’s new president Xi Jinping was very hopeful the two leaders would take up his offer to mediate a meeting between them.

Israel’s Export Imperative

Netanyahu was in China hoping to increase exports to the world’s second largest economy. Given that 40% of Israel’s GDP is based on exports, Bibi is keen for trade with China(Israel’s number 3 trading partner) to reach $10 billion over the next three years. While also interested in increasing exports, Abbas is more interested in economic aid China has offered, as well the likelihood their intervention could shift the stalemated peace process.

China’s new president Xi Jinping has issued a four point proposal for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. According to a statement issued by Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying: “The immediate priority is to take credible steps to stop settlement activities, end violence against innocent civilians and lift the blockade of the Gaza Strip in order to create the necessary conditions for the resumption of peace talks.

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Chuck Spinney: The Real Scare in Syria is Not Chemical Weapons But Rather Regional War

08 Wild Cards, IO Deeds of War, Peace Intelligence
Chuck Spinney
Chuck Spinney

I visited Levantine Syria [1] for three memorable days in 2008 and was struck by the welcoming, friendly nature of the Syrian people, their effusive pride in Syria’s multicultural heritage,  and a pervasive atmosphere of optimism.  I had the impression Syria was emerging from the darkness of the Hafez Assad dictatorship. To be sure, his son, Bashir Assad, had inherited the deeply entrenched thuggish Ba’athist machinery and ruled as an autocrat, but it seemed also that he was a struggling reformer of sorts, perhaps a well-intentioned young man in over his head.  Based on my limited conversations with the locals, I sensed (perhaps erroneously) the average person on the street was empathetic to his problems and willing to give him a little time to sort things out. Without exception, everyone I talked to on this subject said he was far better than his father.

Bear in mind, I was heart of Ba’ath country.  Levantine Syria is where the Syrian Ba’ath party has its roots. It is where the most of the Alawites and Christians are concentrated, but there are plenty of Sunnis and even Turkomens, Kurds, Circassians, etc., in a rich polyglot that is evident in this etho-religious map.  In contrast to the prevasive sectarian atmosphere in the similar, but perhaps less complex culture of Lebanon, sectarian tensions in Levantine Syria, to the extent that they existed, were not in evidence in the areas I visited in 2008.  The economy, although very poor, showed signs of considerable foreign investment and seemed to have a latent vibrancy.  Syria’s contentious relations with its neighbors, especially Turkey, were improving and there was even a modus vivendi with Israel, notwithstanding Syria's alliance with Hezbollah and tense relations with the Lebanese government.  In short, optimism was in the air.
Perhaps my impressions were fanciful, because today, that image is in ruins.  Syria is in the grip of a vicious sectarian war that, as Rami Khouri explains forcefully below, is being stoked by outsiders having all sorts of agendas, many hidden in a smokescreen of the blind unreasoning fear of chemical weapons [2].  This civil war could easily escalate into a regional war, if as is becoming increasingly likely, these outsiders, including the United States [3], become actively involved in it.

Berto Jongman: YouTube Audio (48:10) Sibel Edmunds On Boston Bombing, CIA, and US Empire — US Buying Russian Okay on Invading Syria with Hands Off on Caucasus?

04 Inter-State Conflict, 07 Other Atrocities, 09 Terrorism, Corruption, Government, Idiocy, Law Enforcement, Military, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence
Berto Jongman
Berto Jongman

Extraordinary — virtually a monologue drawing on deep FBI knowledge of CIA false flag operations in Caucasus and Central Asia, ties in Turkish role for decades as CIA and NATO silent partner in false flag terrorism across Caucasus and Central Asia, with Graham Fuller, CIA's man man “a despicable person” and the family of the  alleged Boston bombers who were trained by the Jamestown Foundation and CIA.  Specifically says that US has been providing chemical weapons to the rebels against the Syrian government.  Concludes with prediction on Iran.

Phi Beta Iota:  We have no direct knowledge, but based on listening to Sibel Edmonds for the full 48:10 minutes, we consider her 100% credible and extremely authentic, authoritative, informed, and articulate.  Provides a useful historical overview of how British used religious fanatics and false flags to divide & conquer.  Overall, a virtuoso performance.  When combined with the emerging disclosures on extraterrestrial technologies and knowledge, our overall impression is that the US government has failed the public — secrecy has enabled unnecessary wars over unnecessary resources at the same time that we actually have direct access — have had for decades — advanced technologies that make fossil fuels and rare metals “moot.”  What kind of country screws the many on behalf of the few?  What kind of country avoids ethical evidence-based decision-making at all costs?

Counterintelligence Note:  She says all major US government personnel posted to Turkey in 1990 are core group behind what is left of NATO Gladio, and continue to operate with CIA funding.

See Also:

Berto Jongman: YouTube (11:24) Russia Today TV Nails DHS, FBI, and Boston Leaders — Federal, State, & Local Officials Impeachable + Boston Meta-RECAP

Mini-Me: Boston Media Manipulation, Known Veteran Double-Amputee Brought in as Actor — Amputees in Action Business — Clergy Barred from “Injured” UPDATE 1.4

Review (Guest): Classified Woman-The Sibel Edmonds Story: A Memoir

NIGHTWATCH & Et Al: Syria Round-Up

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, Government, IO Deeds of War, Military, Peace Intelligence
January - July Wind Direction  -  Click on Image to Enlarge
January – July Wind Direction – Click on Image to Enlarge

NIGHTWATCH

Israel-Syria-Hezbollah: US news media citing unidentified US officials reported that the Israeli Air Force executed a ground attack at a weapons warehouse in Syria. Israeli officials declined to comment but Lebanese press reported low flying Israeli combat aircraft flew over Nabatiye Governate in south Lebanon on Friday morning.

Comment: The description of the attack resembles the Israeli air operation in January which prevented Syria from providing advanced weapons to Hezbollah. The timing, days after Hezbollah announced it was fighting in support of the Syrian government, suggests the action was related to that announcement.

What was missing from the Hezbollah announcement this week is what price Hezbollah required from Syria for its overt support. Supplies of modern weapons or delivery systems from Syria might have been an incentive for an open statement of support.

What is certain is that Israel would act promptly to try to prevent any strengthening of Hezbollah by Syria, but has shown no interest in siding with the belligerents in Syria.

Others

Israel Launches Airstrike Into Syria, U.S. Officials Say

United States believes Israel conducted airstrike in Syria, CNN reports

Israel bombs missile shipment in Syria – reports

Berto Jongman: Human Security as Paradigm for Hybrid Governance

Collective Intelligence, Cultural Intelligence, Earth Intelligence, Gift Intelligence, Peace Intelligence
Berto Jongman
Berto Jongman

Human Security — A New Response to Complex Threats

Written by Sadako Ogata

Today, millions of people face extreme insecurity as a result of conflicts and economic crises — not only in acute conflicts like Syria but also in many lower-profile crises. To be sure, great strides have been made since the start of this century, notably in reducing global poverty, due in large part to the concerted action and targeted goals to be achieved by 2015 that were set in motion at the landmark 2000 UN Millennium Summit. However, there is no denying that, in too many parts of our world, the international community fails to protect people whose lives are dangerously at risk.

This calls upon us to mount a new response to meeting human needs, one that recognizes the complex nature of the problems now before us. Such a response exists in the concept of human security, which was advanced a decade ago with the release of the findings of the UN Commission on Human Security, which I co-chaired with Amartya Sen.

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