Peace Intelligence – Page 407 – Public Intelligence Blog

2010/12/222010/12/26

Journal: Wind Power Boondoggle–and the Information Operations (IO) Challenge of Energy and Time in Relation to Policy, Acquisition, and Operations

Advanced Cyber/IO, Analysis, Budgets & Funding, Collective Intelligence, Communities of Practice, Counter-Oppression/Counter-Dictatorship Practices, Earth Intelligence, Ethics, History, InfoOps (IO), Intelligence (government), IO Multinational, IO Sense-Making, Key Players, Methods & Process, Officers Call, Open Government, Peace Intelligence, Policies, Strategy, Threats

editor spinney time — Chuck Spinney Recommends...

My good friend Robert Bryce, author of the must-read Power Hungry: The Myths of ‘Green' Energy and the Real Fuels of the Future just launched this little torpedo.

A Wind Power Boonedoggle

T. Boone Pickens badly misjudged the supply and price of natural gas.

By ROBERT BRYCE, Wall Street Journal, 22 December 2010

After 30 months, countless TV appearances, and $80 million spent on an extravagant PR campaign, T.

Boone Pickens has finally admitted the obvious: The wind energy business isn't a very good one.

Read full article….

Corruption-Slide-3-Holistic-Analysis-300x225 — Click to Enlarge

Phi Beta Iota: Buckminster Fuller and Russell Ackoff nailed it–everything has to be evaluated in relation to energy source and cost and time cost, and you have to focus on doing the right things, not doing the wrong things righter. Where Mr. Pickens went wrong was in sticking with the centralized ownership concept. Wind power and solar power are best for localized applications. The central grid–the Industrial Era top down control grid, is DEAD. Similarly, water and sewage should not be centralized grids demanding massive investments in collection and processing. The graphic to the right shows corruption in the center–when analytics and decision-making lose their holistic integrity, they inevitably fail to achieve the desired outcome while creating cascading costs everywhere else. Military spending in the USA is at the beginning of a nose dive–our military leaders would be wise to get a grip sooner than later, and “beat the dive” by making evidence-based decisions (Advanced IO) sooner than later. Now a really advanced thought: 21st Century national security is about eradicating corruption at home and abroad–this makes possible the creation of a prosperous world at peace. The breadth of that challenge is in the graphic below. That is an IO challenge, not a kinetic challenge. IO must be co-equal to kinetics beginning immediately. In our humble opinion.

corruption map best JPEG — Click to Enlarge

Reference: Frog 6 Guidance 2010-2020

Reference: Transparency Killer App Plus “Open Everything” RECAP (Back to 01/2007)

Reference: Cultures of Resistance–A Look at Global Militarization

2010/12/222010/12/22

Reference: Logistics Oversight as an Information Operations (IO) Mission

Articles & Chapters, Computer/online security, Cultural Intelligence, InfoOps (IO), Intelligence (government), IO Multinational, IO Sense-Making, Methods & Process, Military, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence, Power Behind-the-Scenes/Special Interests, Secrecy & Politics of Secrecy, Strategy, Threats

David Isenberg

Posted: December 21, 2010 11:59 PM

Huffington Post

Can't Anyone at DoD Do Oversight? Anyone at All?

The perennial issue regarding private military security contractors is the degree to which they are subject to effective oversight. In that regard there is only one item in today's news worth looking at. That is the report issued by the House Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs, chaired by John F. Tierney (D-MA). The Majority staff report is titled, Mystery at Manas: Strategic Blind Spots in the Department of Defense's Fuel Contracts in Kyrgyzstan. The report culminates an eight-month investigation into the Department of Defense's multi-billion dollar aviation fuel contracts at the Manas Transit Center in Kyrgyzstan.

Reminding one of the famous line by 1st Lieutenant Milo Minderbinder in Joseph Heller's famous Catch-22 novel, “We're gonna come out of this war rich!” the report found that to keep U.S. warplanes flying over Afghanistan, the Pentagon allowed a “secrecy obsessed” business group to supply jet fuel to a U.S. air base in Kyrgyzstan, turning a blind eye to an elaborate fraud involving fuel deliveries from Russia.

. . . . . . .

But the fuel was being bought by the Pentagon for shipment to the American airbase in Manas, Kyrgyzstan, and from there on to Afghanistan, the report said. Once Russian officials discovered the true identity of the recipient, they cut off supplies, creating a major logistical headache for United States military commanders.

That breakdown forced a major redrawing of supply routes into Afghanistan for jet fuel, which is in chronically short supply in landlocked Afghanistan. It also touched off a major behind-the-scenes diplomatic effort by the Obama administration to rebuild the fuel lines.

Read the complete very well-presented and documented article….

Phi Beta Iota: David Isenberg, author of Shadow Force: Private Security Contractors in Iraq, has become a valuable oversight contributor with respect to the out-of-control acquisition system on top of the out-of-control Private Military Contractor (PMC) system. When reliability and redundancy matter, any military force that does not understand its supply chain timelines, costs, and geospatial realities down to the RFID level, as well as the vulnerabilities to disruption, is begging for a major hit. The Information Operations (IO) domain appears poised for a major advance, integrating intelligence, logistics, operations, and civil affairs information in a manner never before attempted–with the supplemental value of placing Human Intelligence (HUMINT) in proper relationship to Cyber-Security, i.e. 70-30 or thereabouts (some would say 80-20). Make this multinational, and it will be a game changer. This is one reason the Office of the Inspector-General is one of the fifteen slices of HUMINT that must be managed by IO.

2010/12/22

NIGHTWATCH Extracts: Koreas, Iran, Sudan

05 Iran, 08 Wild Cards, IO Sense-Making, Peace Intelligence

South Korea: For the first time in seven years, South Korea has lit a 100-foot tower in the shape of a Christmas triee with 100,000 Christmas lights and topped it with a cross, along the Demilitarized Zone. A choir sang Christmas carols. The tower and carols could be seen and heard in North Korea.

. . . . . . .

Afghanistan-Iran: Iran is blocking almost 2,000 fuel tankers from crossing the border into Afghanistan, saying the trucks would supply U.S.-led coalition troops, according to Afghan officials. The unannounced blockade is in its third week, and Afghan officials do not know when fuel imports will resume, Afghan Deputy Minister of Commerce Sharif Shairifi said.

. . . . . . .

Sudan: Update. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi and Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Abdelaziz held talks with Sudanese President Omar al Bashir and Southern Sudanese leader Salva Kiir in Khartoum on 21 December in anticipation of the coming referendum on Southern Sudanese independence.

NIGHTWATCH KGS Home

Phi Beta Iota: All three pieces with the commentary are worth reading. Even when wrong, the intellectual process and insights of the NIGHTWATCH leader are authentic, deep, and a real pleasure to consider.

1. Wrong. South Korea should not be provoking the North, and the US is long overdue from pulling out of South Korea. This is a regional matter and like Germany, reunification is inevitable. Meanwhile, the US military and the US taxpayer should not be burdened.

2. Right. Iran is Persia, and complicated. The US supply lines to Afghanistan, and US cultural and doctrinal inadequacies in Afghanistan, combined with the FACT that it is costing the US taxpayer $50 million per Taliban body, the US is PAYING for the Taliban drug crop, and the US is blindly accepting of Karzai's deep deep corruption, all argue for a redirection of attention away from Afghanistan and toward respectful engagement with the Iran-Turkey axis of sensibility.

3. Wrong. Sudan is a bomb waiting to explode. They may go through the motion of a vote, but the raw fact that the south has the wealth and the north has nothing means that strategic instability is inevitable. Absent a regional plan to achieve tolerable prosperity for all, this is theater. The US and the Arabs are settling for theater over thinking.

2010/12/212010/12/21

Journal: Development at Gunpoint? Wasteful & Wrong

Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Gift Intelligence, Government, Methods & Process, Military, Non-Governmental, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence, Threats

Development at Gunpoint?

Why Civilians Must Reclaim Stabilization Aid

Michael Young

Foreign Affairs, December 19, 2010

Summary: Today, billions of dollars in aid is delivered by soldiers and private contractors at the behest of the political and military leadership. But this so-called “militarized aid” is ineffective, wasteful, and puts lives at risk.

MICHAEL YOUNG is Regional Director for Asia, Caucasus, and the Middle East at the International Rescue Committee. He has worked in Afghanistan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Chechnya, and Pakistan.

Article online….

2010/12/212010/12/21

Reference: Private Military Corporations–A Non-State Actor-Nuclear Terror Nexus?

03 Economy, 07 Other Atrocities, 09 Justice, 10 Security, 11 Society, Commerce, Corruption, Military, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence

Private Military Corporations: A Non-State Actor-Nuclear Terror Nexus?

Robert L. Brown
Temple University

August 16, 2010

Abstract:

The risk of nuclear terrorism is hyped by some as possible and high consequence (Allison 2006) while others dismiss the strategy as too difficult and too risky for terrorist organizations (Jenkins 2008). However, analysts have no data from which to directly analyze the probability of terrorist acquisition and use. One methodological solution is to extend the range analysis to include analogous cases: private military corporations (PMCs) are one class of non-state actors (NSAs) who may possess the capacity and autonomy to pose a risk of nuclear terrorism for their state masters. I find that the while the technical and military capabilities of PMCs may be greater than those of terrorist organizations with respect to nuclear weapon construction or delivery, they are still be insufficient (and PMCs must also somehow acquire fissile materials). Also, PMCs benefit from agency slack, as demonstrated by Blackwater’s performance in Iraq, but this autonomy does not appear sufficient to carry out an illicit nuclear plot. Therefore, PMCs may be more capable than most terrorist organizations if they sought to acquire nuclear weapons but they are still unlikely to succeed.

Keywords: Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, Private Military Corporations, Blackwater, Xe

Working Paper Series
Brown, Robert L., Private Military Corporations: A Non-State Actor-Nuclear Terror Nexus? (August 16, 2010). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1659785

See Also:

David Isenberg, Jack Bauer Beats Blackwater, Huffington Post 20 december 2010

Journal: Near-Term Demise of Private Military Contractors

2010/12/202010/12/20

Journal: Near-Term Demise of Private Military Contractors

10 Security, 11 Society, Commerce, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, IO Multinational, Military, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence

Former Blackwater Bought By Investment Group

by The Associated Press

RALEIGH, N.C. December 17, 2010, 10:38 am ET

An investment group with ties to the founder of the company formerly known as Blackwater announced Friday that it has bought the security firm, which was heavily criticized for its contractors' actions in Iraq.

USTC Holdings said in a statement that the acquisition of the company now called Xe Services includes its training facility in North Carolina.

Terms of the deal were not disclosed. But the statement said owner and founder Erik Prince will no longer have an equity stake and no longer be involved in Xe's management or operations. The company will be managed by a board appointed by the equity holders and will include independent, unaffiliated directors, the statement said.

The ownership group is led by two private equity firms, including New York-based Forte Capital Advisors. Forte managing partner Jason DeYonker has been a longtime financial adviser to Prince, helping him expand the Moyock, N.C., training grounds and negotiating Blackwater's first training contracts with the U.S. government.

“The future of this industry belongs to those companies with the highest standards of governance, transparency, and performance,” DeYonker said.

Read rest of article (includes photos)…

Phi Beta Iota: Winston Churchill is known for saying Americans always do the right thing, they just try everything else first. Similarly, Russell Ackoff is known for saying that we have to stop doing the wrong things righter, and instead do the right thing. Private Military Contractors (PMC) are the wrong thing! Multinational hybrid task forces are the right thing–cheaper, faster, better in all respects. All we need to bring is integrity and intelligence (decision-support). PMC's loot our own highly qualified human resources; cheat the taxpayer twice over (the government does it once first by hiring them in the first place); and are one step short of air dropping liquid feces over an entire area of responsibility (AOR). Not cool at all. Everyone means well, but this is about as dumb as it gets on all levels of thinking.

2010/12/182010/12/18

Journal: Understanding Iran…and the future of IO

02 Diplomacy, 05 Energy, 10 Security, 11 Society, 12 Water, Communities of Practice, Cultural Intelligence, IO Multinational, IO Sense-Making, Methods & Process, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence, Strategy, Threats

Stakelbeck on Terror | Inside Iran's Revolutionary Guards

CBN (Christian Broadcast Network), 14 December 2010

On this week's special edition of Stakelbeck on Terror, CBN News goes inside Iran's fearsome Revolutionary Guards Corps with Reza Khalili, a former member who worked undercover for the CIA to bring down the Iranian regime.

The Revolutionary Guards Corps is the most powerful and influential force behind Iran's secretive and radical regime.

Over the past 30 years, its structure has been nearly impossible for Western intelligence agencies to penetrate. Yet, Khalili put his life on the line to gather sensitive information for the CIA about the inner workings of the Iranian regime.

Watch as he shares his story in an exclusive interview with Stakelbeck on Terror. Khalili also wrote about the experience in his book,

A Time to Betray.

Because of the nature of his work, Khalili is forced to disguise his identity and alter his voice for safety reasons.

Visit article to view an extremely thoughtful interview.

Phi Beta Iota: There is a remarkable coincidence of message between this specific witness/author and the work in the 1990's of Steve Emerson, whose 1994 PBS video on the domestic threat exposed both the ignorance of the US Government about what was going on within the US homeland, and the naivete of the US Government with respect to intentions. Now we are seeing a persistent ignorance at the highest levels of the deeply-rooted messianic nature of the Iranian regime, a persistent naivete of the deep corruption within the arab countries as well as Israel, a persistent and blissfully self-destructive refusal to embrace Turkey as a a stabilizing Islamic power….and on and on and on. The US Government is, in one word, IGNORANT with arrogance driving incoherence rooted in ideological naivete. Iran (and China) should be the focus on a 360 degree “whole of government” Information Operations (IO) campaign intended to explore and then develop concepts, doctrine, plans, programs, and budget for fully integrated intelligence, information operations, operations support to multinational hybrid task forces, and communications. The problem that we see immediately, apart from the US Government being incompetent–not trained, equipped nor organized for inter-agency or multinational operations–is that there is severe confusion, even denial, about where cyber starts and stops. Cyber is not about bits and bytes running through computers. It is about the mind of man–the mind of entire cultures, tribes, and regions. In that context, cyber should be the “driver” for all kinetic plans, programs, and budgets, by dictate with the US Government and by use of shared information and shared intelligence (decision-support) across all eight tribes and all other nations both allied and not.

21 Aug Odierno weighs in on Iraq's immediate future, Iran's intentions

30 Mar Iran's Intentions Are Clear

03 Feb Obama Carries Forward Carter’s Failed Iran Policy