Patrick Meier: Crisis Mapping Climate Change, Conflict, Aid in Africa

Advanced Cyber/IO, Blog Wisdom, Civil Society, Earth Intelligence, Geospatial, Peace Intelligence
Patrick Meier

Crisis Mapping Climate Change, Conflict and Aid in Africa

I recently gave a guest lecture at the University of Texas, Austin, and finally had the opportunity to catch up with my colleague Josh Busby who has been working on a promising crisis mapping project as part of the university’s Climate Change and African Political Stability Program (CCAPS).

Josh and team just released the pilot version of its dynamic mapping tool, which aims to provide the most comprehensive view yet of climate change and security in Africa. The platform, developed in partnership with AidData, enables users to “visualize data on climate change vulnerability, conflict, and aid, and to analyze how these issues intersect in Africa.” The tool is powered by ESRI technology and allows researchers as well as policymakers to “select and layer any combination of CCAPS data onto one map to assess how myriad climate change impacts and responses intersect. For example, mapping conflict data over climate vulnera-bility data can assess how local conflict patterns could exacerbate climate-induced insecurity in a region. It also shows how conflict dynamics are changing over time and space.”

The platform provides hyper-local data on climate change and aid-funded interventions, which can provide important insights on how development assistance might (or might not) be reducing vulnerability. For example, aid projects funded by 27 donors in Malawi (i.e., aid flows) can be layered on top of the climate change vulnerability data to “discern whether adaptation aid is effectively targeting the regions where climate change poses the most significant risk to the sustainable development and political stability of a country.”

If this weren’t impressive enough, I was positively amazed when I learned from Josh and team that the conflict data they’re using, the Armed Conflict Location Event Data (ACLED), will be updated on a weekly basis as part of this project, which is absolutely stunning. Back in the day, ACLED was specifically coding historical data. A few years ago they closed the gap by updating some conflict data on a yearly basis. Now the temporal lag will just be one week. Note that the mapping tool already draws on the Social Conflict in Africa Database (SCAD).

This project is an important contribution to the field of crisis mapping and I look forward to following CCAPS’s progress closely over the next few months. I’m hoping that Josh will present this project at the 2012 International Crisis Mappers Conference (ICCM 2012) later this year.

Phi Beta Iota:  Now imagine a global database on corruption that is updated daily and then hourly, anonymously sourced as needed, calling out corrupt officials by name, date, time, and place.

Event: 30 Mar GWU DC Can Buberian Dialogues Temper Political Stridency?

Advanced Cyber/IO, Ethics

The George Washington University
University Seminar on Reflexive Systems
Saturday, March 30, 2012 from 10:00 am-12:00 pm
Funger Hall, Room 320
2201 G Street NW

Can Buberian Dialogues Temper Political Stridency?

Michael Lissack

Stridency and polarization dominate the conduct of political debate in the media.  Like the endless repetition of a bad song, the melody becomes stuck in the public's consciousness and like a squeaky wheel attracts undue attention and energy. Many recognize this problem but as with the problem of drug addiction feel mostly powerless to contain it … never mind stop it.  When the head of a political party can claim, “This is a struggle of good and evil. And we're the good.” the visceral stridency is nearing crescendo.  Something needs to be done.  Lissack argues that the stridency problem is a direct result of our reliance on label/category methods of explanation.  These explanatory methods are efficient reductive tools – but that efficient reduction has come at a price. Lissack suggests that social complexity theory has a potential answer.

By exploration of narratives based on mechanism rather than labels based on category the hypothesis is that the participants can be rescued from the depths of stridency and brought to a more productive, interactive conversation.  The narratives are to be obtained via what is called “Buberian Dialogue” — where Buber's I-Thou relationship is established between each side's protagonist and an interacting audience. After thus crowd-sourcing the extraction of commonalities underlying the issues discussed, soft systems methodology is used to develop mechanism-based narratives which can be used as the basis for further dialogue. Traditional approaches to curtailing the stridency and its dangers have not succeeded. It is time to try something new.

Patrick Meier: #UgandaSpeaks: Al-Jazeera uses Ushahidi to Amplify Local Voices in Response to #Kony2012

08 Wild Cards, 09 Justice, 10 Security, 11 Society, Advanced Cyber/IO, Blog Wisdom, Civil Society, Media
Patrick Meier

#UgandaSpeaks: Al-Jazeera uses Ushahidi to Amplify Local Voices in Response to #Kony2012

Invisible Children’s #Kony2012 campaign has set off a massive firestorm of criticism with the debate likely to continue raging for many more weeks and months. In the meantime, our colleagues at Al-Jazeera have repurposed our previous #SomaliaSpeaks project to amplify Ugandan voices responding to the Kony campaign: #UgandaSpeaks.

Together with GlobalVoices, this Al-Jazeera initiative is one of the very few seeking to amplify local reactions to the Kony campaign. Over 70 local voices have been shared and mapped on Al-Jazeera’s Ushahidi platform in the first few hours since the launch. The majority of reactions submitted thus far are critical of the campaign but a few are positive.

Read full post with graphics and many links.

Marcus Aurelius: Chinese(?) Use Fake Facebook Page for NATO Chief to Diddle His Subordinates

Advanced Cyber/IO, Cultural Intelligence, Ethics
Marcus Aurelius

Not sure I agree with NATO advice to their seniors to all start social networking sites.  I personally avoid that stuff like the plague.

How spies used Facebook to steal Nato chiefs’ details

NATO'S most senior commander was at the centre of a major security alert when a series of his colleagues fell for a fake Facebook account opened in his name – apparently by Chinese spies.

. . . . . . .

They thought they had become genuine friends of Nato's Supreme Allied Commander – but instead every personal detail on Facebook, including private email addresses, phone numbers and pictures were able to be harvested.

Read full story.

Phi Beta Iota:   In an “open everything” world, those raised in walled garden are actually retarded and pay the price.  It is not possible to be smart in isolation.  Secrecy is now a fatal cancer.  Bureaucracy is now a fatal cancer.  Governments (and all other forms of organization) in isolation are now fatal cancers.  For a tiny fraction of what is being wasted by the US Cyber Command and the US National Security Agency, an Open Source Agency under diplomatic auspices could catapult the USA into Smart Nation status.

See Also:

Yoda: Big Data Tough Love, Everyone Fails

Yoda: The Extended School – Obstacles & Possibilities

Open Source Agency: Executive Access Point

THE OPEN SOURCE EVERYTHING MANIFESTO: Transparency, Truth & Trust

Patrick Meier: Truthiness as Propability – Moving Beyond Absolutism within the Global Social Media Information Environment

Advanced Cyber/IO, Cultural Intelligence, Ethics
Patrick Meier

Truthiness as Probability: Moving Beyond the True or False Dichotomy when Verifying Social Media

I asked the following question at the Berkman Center’s recent Symposium on Truthiness in Digital Media: “Should we think of truthiness in terms of probabili-ties rather than use a True or False dichotomy?” The wording here is important. The word “truthiness” already suggests a subjective fuzziness around the term. Expressing truthiness as probabilities provides more contextual information than does a binary true or false answer.

When we set out to design the SwiftRiver platform some three years ago, it was already clear to me then that the veracity of crowdsourced information ought to be scored in terms of probabilities. For example, what is the probability that the content of a Tweet referring to the Russian elections is actually true? Why use probabilities? Because it is particularly challenging to instantaneously verify crowdsourced information in the real-time social media world we live in.

There is a common tendency to assume that all unverified information is false until proven otherwise. This is too simplistic, however. We need a fuzzy logic approach to truthiness:

Continue reading “Patrick Meier: Truthiness as Propability – Moving Beyond Absolutism within the Global Social Media Information Environment”

Theophillis Goodyear: Truth is Not a Singularity

Advanced Cyber/IO, Cultural Intelligence, Ethics
Theophillis Goodyear

Truth Is Not a Singularity

One thing I learned from Joan V. Bondurant's book The Conquest of Violence, is that Gandhi was in search of Truth with a capital T. But I eventually realized that it was SOCIAL Truth he was looking for. And there is no single social truth, because every person's experience is valid from a certain perspective; and every person experiences the world in a different way.

That means that there are 6 billion social truths out there; and there are even more than that, because those six billion individuals also experience reality as a couple, as a family, as a group of friends, as a neighborhood, as a community, as a nation, as a culture, as a religion, as Miles Davis fans . . . ad infinitum.

Gandhi was looking for a Truth that cut through all these differences. And that truth was Justice in a given social situation.

In other words, Truth with a capital T can only be discovered through our social interactions. And it's always relative. Always.

When it comes to Social Reality, there's never just one truth.

The Truth is this: when some people suffer through the actions of other people, it's never right or fair. It may be unintentional, but that doesn't alter the equation. Some people are suffering, and other people are causing their suffering. That was the Truth Gandhi was searching for—-justice between people. And he claimed that there's only one reliable road to that Truth.

Nonviolence.

But the above is just a small sliver of his philosophy. It's more complex than that. But at the same time it's simple. It reminds me of the line from Amadeus, where Salieri said:

” . . . music, finished as no music is ever finished. Displace one note and there would be diminishment. Displace one phrase and the structure would fall.”

Gandhi's satyagraha is like that. It's a continual effort to find balance in a given social situation. Once you understand the strategy and dynamics of his philosophy, it's very simple to understand and apply. But the social world is a very complex system. Satyagraha only works if it is continually adapted to changing circumstances. That's where the challenge lies.

But no one simplified that challenge like Gandhi. And no one simplified Gandhi like Bondurant. In fact, Bondurant explains Gandhi better than Gandhi explained Gandhi. It took someone of her superior intellect to untangle all of the sometimes confusing threads of Gandhi's unique wisdom.

Gandhi was a force of nature. Bondurant was like a quantum physicist who successfully analyzed and explained that force

The Conquest of Violence: The Gandhian Philosophy of Conflict, by Joan V. Bondurant

Yoda: Big Data Tough Love, Everyone Fails

Advanced Cyber/IO, Analysis, Collaboration Zones, Communities of Practice, info-graphics/data-visualization, InfoOps (IO), Intelligence (government), IO Impotency, Key Players, Officers Call, Policies, Serious Games, Standards, Strategy, Threats
Got Crowd? BE the Force!

The Three Things You Need to Know About Big Data, Right Now

Patrick Tucker

World Future Society  March 11, 2012

Institute for Ethics & Emerging Technologies

Okay. You got me. I can’t really tell you everything you need to know about big data. The one thing I discovered last week – as I joined more than 2,500 data junkies from around the world for the O’Reilly Strata conference in rainy Santa Clara California—is that nobody can, not Google, not Intel, not even IBM. All I can guarantee you is that you’ll be hearing a lot more about it.

What is big data? Roughly defined, it refers to massive data sets that can be used to predict or model future events. That can include everything from the online purchase history of millions of Americans (to predict what they’re about to buy) to where people in San Francisco are most likely to jog (according to GPS) to Facebook posts and Twitter trends and 100 year storm records.

Phi Beta Iota:   Big data is most important for what it can tell you about true cost and whole system cause and effect, inclusive of political corruption and organizational fraud.  These are past and present issues, not future issues.  We design the future based on the integrity present today.  This is why “open everything” matters.

With that in mind, here’s the three most important things you need to know about big data right now:

Continue reading “Yoda: Big Data Tough Love, Everyone Fails”

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