NIGHTWATCH: China-Pakistan-US–New Dynamics

02 China, 02 Diplomacy, 03 India, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security

China-Pakistan: Citing unidentified “media reports,” Pakistan’s Dunya news reported on 18 May that China will give 50 JF-17 aircraft to Pakistan on an emergency basis.

Pakistani Prime Minister Gilani, on the second day of his visit to China, and Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao discussed bilateral relations and other strategic matters, including the US Abbottabad operation and its effects on the region.

Comment: The last time China made a special effort to help Pakistan on an emergency basis by providing combat aircraft was after the near-war with India in 2002. India began preparing for war almost immediately after the bombing of the Indian parliament by a Pakistan-based and supported terrorist group, the LeT, in December 2001. Pakistan followed.

India brought to full combat readiness and deployed 750,000 soldiers, hundreds of combat aircraft and both naval fleets to attack Pakistan in early January 2002. Pakistan’s armed forces, under Musharraf as Chief of the Army Staff and leader of Pakistan, failed to complete their war preparations. Last minute US and British diplomatic intervention prevented war.

China has a history of responding quickly to Pakistani requests for emergency military aid. In 2002, China provided emergency combat aircraft to Pakistan after the threat of war with India eased. During the 1971 India-Pakistan general war, it provided emergency ammunition and other supplies by road to prevent the total defeat of Pakistan. It is once again honoring its longstanding alliance commitment.

The dominant issue in Pakistan’s parliamentary and internal military debate about the Abbottabad raid was the lack of any response to an armed air intrusion. The air force chief admitted that radars on the Afghan border do not operate continuously, as they do along the Indian border, because of the expense and the assessed lack of an air threat from Afghanistan. Pakistan also maintains no fighter-interceptors on alert along the Afghan border because of the expense and shortage of resources.

The timing of the Chinese announcement indicates it is tailored to help correct the deficiencies in Pakistani air defenses along the Durand Line. The fighters signify that Pakistan has made a strategic reappraisal of the air threat from Afghanistan. The Pakistan Air Force now recognizes the need to defend that airspace. The Chinese also will have shared insights about and experience with radar surveillance and other air defenses in mountainous terrain. Other air defense equipment support is likely to be provided as well.

As NightWatch has reported on several occasions, the US relationship with Pakistan has been irreparably broken. A new, more arms-length relationship is evolving in which the US is a friend for some purposes and a potential threat for others.

One implication is that the operating environment for drones and other aircraft appears to be about to change. The drones and their crews have ably demonstrated their war fighting capabilities under conditions in which the US owns the airspace. That is an important benchmark. However, their performance in a non-permissive environment is a different, important benchmark, which has yet to be established. It is about to be, along the Durand Line.

The second implication is that, by acting quickly, China has drawn Pakistan more tightly into its sphere of influence, countering a decade of US aid and energy. Prime Minister Gilani said on 17 May on arriving, China is Pakistan’s best friend.


Sterling Seagrave: Reflections of an Old China Hand

02 China, 03 Economy, 03 India, 06 Russia, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Justice, 10 Security, 11 Society, Commerce, Corruption, Government, History, InfoOps (IO), Intelligence (government), IO Sense-Making, Methods & Process, Money, Banks & Concentrated Wealth, Power Behind-the-Scenes/Special Interests, Secrecy & Politics of Secrecy
Sterling Seagrave

Gold rising further except for profit taking bursts. China is buying all the gold it can get, and unloading all the paper dollars it can dump.. Other countries, including Russia are buying gold. I can see the Yuan or RMB playing a larger role as a global currency, but most people are too ignorant of China to accept the Yuan quickly or easily. The Swiss have a huge mass of gold well stashed, so I can see the Swiss franc playing a larger role. It’s hard to make a forecast for the Euro, although it will almost certainly survive the US dollar. It’s also possible that the Swiss might make a deal with the EU that would result in the Euro being backed by Swiss gold. Now that the head of the IMF has been burned at the stake, his very good brain is of no further use. The EU is scrambled eggs right now. Sarko can’t survive without a miracle. India’s potential will take a very long time to organize and get rolling; I went to school there and it’s a seething cesspit.  It’s time for the US to get out of foreign wars, but unlikely that it will because of the weapons market. Obama seems impotent. The Pentagon and its corporate backers and partners seems to be deciding policy. I’m not happy about Petraeus at the agency.  I think the USG and the US are totally hosed. Desperate for a new demon. Good time for Lee Kuan-yew to retire. Wise of him. The immediate future does not look good. War and more war. Civil war. Revolution. Take your pick. The cupboard is bare. It’s all been looted. What a mess America has made since 1945. Moments of glory, decades of folly and stupidity….  Israel and the Palestinians are a parody of the world as a whole.

I think the last real ingots of gold in Manhattan were in the basement of the Twin Towers. The Fed and the Treasury don’t dare be transparent or audited, because whatever real (solid) gold they ever had was moved to Malta and other offshore or mountain stashes long ago, replaced with Play-Dough. Christ, even the Bureau of Engraving and Printing stops now and then to change engraving plates and produce “Presidential dollars” to be used as bribes by the White House (ever since Truman); we have that from a guy who is now retired after running the shop  since 1945. The satellite imagery boys, where I have sources, dream of being about to electronically penetrate the earth to a depth of 100 feet or more from satellites but when I last checked 3 or 4 years ago they were still dreaming. They fiddle with HAARP trying to achieve earth-penetration, and only end up causing huge earthquakes and tsunamis; measurements already show the poles have begun to shift partly due to melting ice masses, but also due to fiddling with HAARP. The Fukushima quake and tsunami have been attributed to fiddling with HAARP, possibly the Sumatra disaster as well. Not all scientists are smart and prescient. We’re damn lucky they haven’t already blown us to smithereens, while scratching their backsides. Never forget that the Fed has always existed as a fraud by intent and design. President Wilson commented years after enabling the Fed in 1913: “I have destroyed my country.”

See Also:


Review: Gold Warriors–America’s Secret Recovery of Yamashita’s Gold

Engineers of India-Afghanistan vs China-Pakistan

02 China, 03 India, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 08 Wild Cards, 12 Water, Advanced Cyber/IO, Cultural Intelligence, Earth Intelligence, Government, IO Mapping, IO Multinational, IO Sense-Making, Methods & Process, Military, Peace Intelligence, Strategy

India-China-Pakistan: Indian intelligence agencies say they have credible evidence that several hundred Chinese working in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir are People’s Liberation Army engineers, the Times of India reported 12 May.

According to the report, Indian intelligence agencies are verifying that the engineers are engaged with military construction projects, such as bunkers, and said the presence of military engineers in civilian construction activities carried out by China in other countries is “unusual,” an intelligence source said. The information about the engineers was part of an assessment presented by the Indian Army to the Indian prime minister, defense minister and other senior officials weeks ago.

Comment: This is the first press report of Chinese military engineers in Pakistan’s portion of Kashmir. Chinese engineers are working on road construction in far northern Pakistan which borders China, but no engineering agreements are known that cover Pakistani Kashmir.

India has committed about $1.5 billion to Afghanistan for developmental assistance and plans to commit another $500 million over the next five years, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said on 12 May. Priority areas for the aid will be social programs, agriculture and infrastructure, according to Singh

India strongly supports Afghanistan’s peace and reconciliation efforts with the Taliban, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told Afghan President Hamid Karzai during Singh’s two-day visit to Kabul. Singh told Karzai and senior Afghan officials that New Delhi is Kabul’s “neighbor and partner in development.” He expressed support for Afghanistan’s “unity, integrity and prosperity

Comment: The two news stores above help explain Pakistan’s dogged support for the Taliban and other anti-Kabul movements and its anxiety about India. India supported the Northern Alliance of Uzbek and Tajik tribes against the Pashtun Taliban when Karzai still was working for the Taliban, before he switched sides.

The presence of Indian advisors and influence west of Pakistan confronts Pakistani strategists with the prospect of fighting on two fronts in a putative future war, with no strategic depth because Pakistan is so narrow. More importantly, the Indian Border Roads Organization (BRO) has thousands of workers and Indian Army engineers working on the “infrastructure” projects in Afghanistan about which Prime Minister Singh spoke. BRO seems to concentrate on improving the roads in Afghan provinces that border Pakistan.

Indian motives in helping Afghanistan are far from altruistic, just as are those of Iran. Both states have provided aid to the Northern Alliance and the Afghan government, based on their strategic calculations to restrain Pakistan and especially prevent it from annexing the Pashtun regions of Afghanistan.


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Oil, Food, Middle Class Down = Long Emergency

01 Brazil, 02 China, 03 Economy, 03 India, 04 Indonesia, 05 Energy, 06 Family, 06 Russia, 07 Venezuela, 08 Wild Cards, 11 Society, Civil Society, Commerce, Commercial Intelligence, Corruption, IO Sense-Making
John Robb


I gave a little talk at a financial conference (Casey Research) that included the following very simple economic scenario:

  • Oil prices are going up (inexorably). China + Peak Oil + Financial diversification. Oil doesn’t stop going up until GDP goes down. It’s an inexorable force until then.
  • The US middle class is broken.  A hollow husk unable to withstand the slightest gust.  Regardless, it’s the ultimate source of demand for the global economy. It’s an immovable barrier.
  • When oil hits ~$150 a barrel the impact occurs between inexorable force and immovable barrier. The combo of higher prices at the pump and for everything else (food and other essentials) starts to crush middle class budgets and force defaults.  The economy shrinks until the price of oil goes down enough to be affordable again (for those still left in the middle class).

We keep repeat the pattern above until we’re in the second depression (D2).  Long term low demand.

Phi Beta Iota: This is precisely why the BRICS (now including South Africa) and a new coalition, perhaps led by Cuba and Venezuela since Chile is refusing to lead, should focus on the immediate challenge of creating infinite free renewable energy–the foundation for global non-zero advances.  Such a strategy would be inherently ethical, legal, citizen-centered, and non-violent as well as non-intrusive on any conceivable concept of sovereignty or indigenous privilege.

Bin Laden Show 20: NIGHTWATCH on Pakistan

03 India, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, IO Impotency

NIGHTWATCH: Four points are clear. Pakistan is much  more concerned about India than about internal terrorism or the Taliban  in Afghanistan. Pakistan has many alternatives to the ISI Directorate  for managing clandestine arrangements with terrorists. The Intelligence  Bureau must be investigated. The timing of all known clandestine  arrangements falls within Musharraf’s tenure.

Phi Beta Iota: Americans are known in Latin America as “tontos utiles” [useful idiots].  It is inconceivable to anyone who actually knows what living in Asia entails [$1 per static, $2 per mobile surveillant], to conceive of Bin Laden [or anyone else, perhaps in Karachi] being comfortable in Pakistan without the knowledge of the intelligence service and Army Chief of Staff; and it is highly questionable whether the same CIA that self-destructed over Khost Kathy could infiltrate Pakistan when its “norm” was the likes of Ray Davis.  As much as we may all want to believe this theatrics, a sufficiency of questions demand investigation.

Below the Line: NIGHTWATCH on Pakistan and Bin Laden at Length

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Bin Laden Show 09: NIGHTWATCH Review

03 India, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, Cultural Intelligence, Government, IO Impotency, Military
Click on Image to Enlarge

North Korea, India Reaction, Pakistan, Special Comment with Two Sources, Al Qaeda-US, Taliban

Source: Asia Times, 3 May 2011, The Life and Death of Osama Bin Laden

Source: Washington Post, 3 May 2011, Bin Laden discovered ‘hiding in plain sight’

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Reference: APJ Abdul Kalam–Pure Wisdom

01 Poverty, 03 Environmental Degradation, 03 India, 04 Education, 05 Energy, 08 Proliferation, 11 Society, Advanced Cyber/IO, Articles & Chapters, Cultural Intelligence, Earth Intelligence, Ethics
APJ Abdul Kalam

‘To create better world, it is necessary to alleviate poverty’

Chicago, Apr 24:

Former President, Mr A P J Abdul Kalam today said that to create a better world, it is necessary to alleviate poverty, safeguard drinking water, use clean energy and ensure quality education and values for all.

Mr Kalam, who was honoured at a public reception by the Indo-American Centre (IAC) here, said: “The world is integrally connected through the environment, economy, people and ideas.”

He said that we need an educational value system, and ideas and innovations should not be politically inclined.

On political unrest in the Middle East, Mr Kalam explained how the Egyptian revolution for a change to democracy has spread to the Arab world.

“We need to stop corruption,” he said.

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