Global Impacts of Limited Nuclear War on Agriculture, Food Supplies, and Human Nutrition
Ira Helfand, MD
International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War
Physicians for Social Responsibility
Credits and Acknowledgements
The publication of this briefing paper was made possible
thanks to the generous financial support of the Swiss Federal
Department of Foreign Affairs.
Over the last several years, a number of studies have shown that a limited, regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan would cause significant climate disruption worldwide.
Two studies published this year examine the impact on agricultural output that would result from this climate disruption. In the US, corn production would decline by an average of 10% for an entire decade, with the most severe decline, about 20% in year 5. There would be a similar decline in soybean production, with, again, the most severe loss, about 20%, in year 5.
A second study found a significant decline in Chinese middle season rice production. During the first 4 years, rice production would decline by an average of 21%; over the next 6 years the decline would average 10%.
Lord James of Blackheath, House of Lords [VIDEO 11:10] from 2010, now circulating
Breaking news Lord James of Blackheath has spoken in the House of Lords holding evidence of three transactions of 5 Trillion each and a transaction of 750,000 metric tonnes of gold and has called for an investigation.
I think there are three possible conclusions that may come from it. I think there may have been a massive piece of money laundering committed by a major government which ought to know better and that it has effectively undermined the integrity of the British bank the Royal Bank of Scotland, in doing so. The second alternative is that a major American department has an agency that has gone rogue on it because it has been wound up and has created a structure out of which they are seeking to get at least 50 billion Euros as a payoff. And the third possibility is that this is an extraordinarily elaborate fraud which has not been carried out but which has been prepared in order to provide a threat to one government or more if they don’t pay them off. So there are three possibilities and this all needs a very urgent review.
My Lords, it starts in April and May of 2009, with the alleged transfer to the United Kingdom, to HSBC of a sum of 5 trillion dollars and seven days later, in comes another 5 trillion dollars to HSBC, and then 3 weeks later another 5 trillion. 5 trillion in each case. Sorry. A total of 15 trillion dollars is alleged to have been passed into the hands of HSBC for onward transit to the Royal Bank of Scotland and we need to look at where this came from and what the history of this money is. And I have been trying to sort out the sequence by which this money has been created and from where it has come from for a long time.
LONDON — China has made a “secret commitment” to prop up the crisis-hit eurozone in return for budget reforms and public sector cuts, the Sunday Times reported, amid ongoing turmoil over the region’s debt crisis.
The paper said Chinese representatives at the Paris G20 finance gathering on Saturday had indicated that Beijing was willing to pump tens of billions into the eurozone to purchase infrastructure assets from debt-plagued nations.
The Sunday Times, which quoted a source close to the talks, added that Chinese banks could also increase their purchases of eurozone sovereign debt.
“China wants to be sure that Europe knows the size of the hole and that it won’t get any bigger before they agree to fill it in,” the paper quoted the source as saying.
Europe had vowed to its G20 partners Saturday that it would take swift and decisive action to resolve a debt crisis that is threatening to drag the world economy back into recession.
French Finance Minister Francois Baroin, speaking after the meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bankers, said the eurozone would present answers as soon as next weekend, at a summit of EU leaders in Brussels on October 23.
Phi Beta Iota: Predatory capitalism and inverted democracy are now “bracketed” by the emerging new financial order on the one hand (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa + 50 other countries behind the scenes), and OccupyWallStreet in over 900 locations around the world. The world is at a design opportunity point. China will err on the side of institutions (doing the wrong thing wronger) and OWS will err on the side of populism in place of insttutions. We need a blend of both–a hybrid system whose signal characteristic must be transparency for truth producing trust.
I gave a little talk at a financial conference (Casey Research) that included the following very simple economic scenario:
Oil prices are going up (inexorably). China + Peak Oil + Financial diversification. Oil doesn’t stop going up until GDP goes down. It’s an inexorable force until then.
The US middle class is broken. A hollow husk unable to withstand the slightest gust. Regardless, it’s the ultimate source of demand for the global economy. It’s an immovable barrier.
When oil hits ~$150 a barrel the impact occurs between inexorable force and immovable barrier. The combo of higher prices at the pump and for everything else (food and other essentials) starts to crush middle class budgets and force defaults. The economy shrinks until the price of oil goes down enough to be affordable again (for those still left in the middle class).
We keep repeat the pattern above until we’re in the second depression (D2). Long term low demand.
Phi Beta Iota: This is precisely why the BRICS (now including South Africa) and a new coalition, perhaps led by Cuba and Venezuela since Chile is refusing to lead, should focus on the immediate challenge of creating infinite free renewable energy–the foundation for global non-zero advances. Such a strategy would be inherently ethical, legal, citizen-centered, and non-violent as well as non-intrusive on any conceivable concept of sovereignty or indigenous privilege.
• A local, slice-of-life story from a Monitor correspondent.
Jakarta’s urban gardening scene got started with a simple tweet: “Who wants to start urban farming?” After that first Twitter message in November 2010, the group known as Jakarta Berkebun secured a plot in the city’s north and harvested a crop of morning glories (a common ingredient in many dishes here).
Jakarta lacks green space, but unused land abounds. Jakarta Berkebun aims to transform empty lots that often fill with rubbish into training grounds for urban youths to learn about growing food. For Milly Ratudian, an architect who leads the group, urban farming is a a response to skyrocketing food prices despite the nation’s abundant fertile crop land.
China-Indonesia: Representatives from nine Chinese companies will visit Indonesia on 5 January to consider investment in transportation infrastructure in the Papua and West Papua Provinces of Indonesian New Guinea, according to Indonesian Transportation Minister Freddy Numberi. The companies’ representatives, accompanied by Chinese officials, are on a fact finding trip for constructing airports and seaports, and will consider upgrading airports in Manokwari, Timika, Biak and Sorong into international airports. The governors of Papua and West Papua Provinces will also present investment opportunities during the visit.