Oil, Food, Middle Class Down = Long Emergency

01 Brazil, 02 China, 03 Economy, 03 India, 04 Indonesia, 05 Energy, 06 Family, 06 Russia, 07 Venezuela, 08 Wild Cards, 11 Society, Civil Society, Commerce, Commercial Intelligence, Corruption, IO Sense-Making
John Robb


I gave a little talk at a financial conference (Casey Research) that included the following very simple economic scenario:

  • Oil prices are going up (inexorably). China + Peak Oil + Financial diversification. Oil doesn’t stop going up until GDP goes down. It’s an inexorable force until then.
  • The US middle class is broken.  A hollow husk unable to withstand the slightest gust.  Regardless, it’s the ultimate source of demand for the global economy. It’s an immovable barrier.
  • When oil hits ~$150 a barrel the impact occurs between inexorable force and immovable barrier. The combo of higher prices at the pump and for everything else (food and other essentials) starts to crush middle class budgets and force defaults.  The economy shrinks until the price of oil goes down enough to be affordable again (for those still left in the middle class).

We keep repeat the pattern above until we’re in the second depression (D2).  Long term low demand.

Phi Beta Iota: This is precisely why the BRICS (now including South Africa) and a new coalition, perhaps led by Cuba and Venezuela since Chile is refusing to lead, should focus on the immediate challenge of creating infinite free renewable energy–the foundation for global non-zero advances.  Such a strategy would be inherently ethical, legal, citizen-centered, and non-violent as well as non-intrusive on any conceivable concept of sovereignty or indigenous privilege.

Indonesia’s Urban Open Farmville

01 Agriculture, 01 Poverty, 03 Economy, 04 Indonesia, 11 Society, Civil Society, Cultural Intelligence, Earth Intelligence

Global News Blog

Indonesia’s real-life Farmville

Rising food prices are galvanizing Jakarta’s urban farming movement.

By Sara Schonhardt, Correspondent / April 22, 2011

Jakarta, Indonesia

• A local, slice-of-life story from a Monitor correspondent.

Jakarta’s urban gardening scene got started with a simple tweet: “Who wants to start urban farming?” After that first Twitter message in November 2010, the group known as Jakarta Berkebun secured a plot in the city’s north and harvested a crop of morning glories (a common ingredient in many dishes here).

Click on Image to Enlarge

Jakarta lacks green space, but unused land abounds. Jakarta Berkebun aims to transform empty lots that often fill with rubbish into training grounds for urban youths to learn about growing food. For Milly Ratudian, an architect who leads the group, urban farming is a a response to skyrocketing food prices despite the nation’s abundant fertile crop land.

Read full article….

NIGHTWATCH Extract: China Captures Indonesia

02 China, 03 Economy, 04 Indonesia, 10 Security, 11 Society

China-Indonesia: Representatives from nine Chinese companies will visit Indonesia on 5 January to consider investment in transportation infrastructure in the Papua and West Papua Provinces of Indonesian New Guinea, according to Indonesian Transportation Minister Freddy Numberi. The companies’ representatives, accompanied by Chinese officials, are on a fact finding trip for constructing airports and seaports, and will consider upgrading airports in Manokwari, Timika, Biak and Sorong into international airports. The governors of Papua and West Papua Provinces will also present investment opportunities during the visit.

Continue reading “NIGHTWATCH Extract: China Captures Indonesia”

Search: China Fake Gold + Fraud RECAP

02 China, 03 India, 04 Indonesia, 06 Russia, 08 Wild Cards, Corruption, Searches

2004 Seagrave (US/FR) Interview with Sterling and Peggy Seagrave on Gold Warriors: America’s Secret Recovery of Yamashita’s Gold

Journal: $750 Billion Wall Street Scam, Russian Anger, Chinese Intent, We are NOT Making This Up!

Journal: Banks’ Foreclosure ‘Robo-Signers’ Were Hair Stylists, Teens, Walmart Workers–Lawsuit

Journal: China May Demand Physical Gold

Journal: Chuck Spinney Highlights Labor Day in a Kleptocracy

Journal: Fake Gold Bars from China to India, Made in the USA–Federal Reserve and Bank of NY Accused–Meanwhile, Prison Planet and Bullion Vault Say No

Journal: Five Myths Debunked–Treasury Run by Crooks

Journal: Nine Under-Reported Stories on Bank Fraud

Journal: US Govenment Accepts Fraud as “Normal”

Journal: US Government Party to $4 Trillion Fraud

Journal: US Rubin-Summers Tungsten Gold Round II

Journal: Wall Street Scam Collateral Damage II

Reference: Alternative Views of 9/11–Massive US Financial & Gold Fraud & 240 Billion Covert Fund Against Russia

Reference: US Intelligence & Global Banking

Review: Bad Money: Reckless Finance, Failed Politics, and the Global Crisis of American Capitalism

Review: Confessions of an Economic Hit Man

Review: Griftopia–Bubble Machines, Vampire Squids, and the Long Con That Is Breaking America

Review: National Suicide: How Washington Is Destroying the American Dream from A to Z

Review: Rule by Secrecy: The Hidden History That Connects the Trilateral Commission, the Freemasons, and the Great Pyramids

Review: Tragedy & Hope: A History of the World in Our Time

Worth a Look: Gold Fraud, Gold Paper

Event Report: 30 Jun-1 July, NYC – ICSR Peace and Security Summit

01 Poverty, 03 India, 04 Indonesia, 05 Civil War, 05 Iran, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Terrorism, 10 Security, 10 Transnational Crime, 12 Water, Academia, Civil Society, Collective Intelligence, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, History, Law Enforcement, Methods & Process, Military, Non-Governmental, Peace Intelligence, Policy, Strategy, Technologies
Event link

Peace and Security Summit Event Report/Notes

+ Host: London-based International Centre for the Study of Radicalization and Political Violence

+ Partners, Affiliates, Financial Support: National Defense Univ, Rena & Sami David, The Rockefeller Foundation, Public Safety Canada, Center on Global Counterterrorism Cooperation, Centre for Policy Research, New Dehli, Dept of War Studies , King’s College London, Inst for Strategic Threat Analysis & Response, Univ of Penn, International Inst for Counter-Terrorism, Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya, Pakistan Inst for Peace Studies, Regional Centre on Conflict Prevention, Jordan Inst of Diplomacy

> Overall, disappointing but reviewing these notes shows there are some good nuggets to take + connect.


Continue reading “Event Report: 30 Jun-1 July, NYC – ICSR Peace and Security Summit”

Journal: Weak Signals–Obama Slipping Overseas

04 Indonesia

Indonesia Says It May Tear Down Obama Statue

To Be Listed on EBay?

Indonesian officials are considering a petition that calls for a bronze statue in Jakarta of a young Barack Obama to be torn down.

Last month, a bronze statue of Obama was unveiled in Jakarta’s Taman Menteng Park. It depicts the U.S. President as a young boy, and commemorates the time he spent in Indonesia as a child.

Now, 55,000 people have joined a Facebook group that calls for the statue to be taken down, citing Obama’s failure to “make a significant contribution to the Indonesian nation.”

Journal: MILNET Focus on Iraq

03 India, 04 Indonesia, Communities of Practice, Ethics, Peace Intelligence, Policies, Threats

Full Story Online

In 2010, A World Of Turmoil

Yet Iraq could be the biggest success story

By David Ignatius

Will Iraqi democracy be 2010’s big success story? Visiting Anbar province several weeks ago and listening to the governor of Ramadi talk about his big development plans, I found myself wondering if maybe the cruel Iraq story might have a happy ending after all. This was the province where al-Qaeda declared its first emirate, just a few years ago, and now the governor is handing out a special Financial Times report on business opportunities there.

When I meet Iraqis these days, they all want to talk politics: Which party is ahead in the March parliamentary elections? Can Interior Minister Jawad al-Bolani or Vice President Adel Abdul Mahdi unseat the incumbent prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki? It’s the kind of freewheeling political debate you can’t find anywhere else in the Arab world. I want to believe it’s real, even as the terrorist bombs continue to explode in Baghdad and other cities.

Phi Beta Iota: Although pedestrian and myopic in the extreme, courtier Ignatius provides one nugget on Iraq that is repeated above.  Despite huge mistakes at home (elective war based on 935 lies to the public, Congress believing Wolfowitz instead of Shinseki) and major opposition in theater (Syria, Iran), Iraq is on the verge of being a success story.  Here are the three things NOT happening in Iraq that need to be ramped up from January 2010:

1)  Information Operations (IO) getting every success story into the news.  Right now all we see in a thin stream of US Army press releases and US military base newspapers.  This is not just pathetic, it is a self-inflicted wound.

2)  US Whole of  Government Operations that are finely calibrated to deliver the maximum amount of peace goods in the shortest possible time.  March-July should see us FLOOD Iraq with all the stuff that should have been done during the Golden Hour.  Ideally 80% of the money should be spent LOCALLY, not on fat-cat beltway bandit perks.

3)  Multinational Engagement with a special focus on Malaysia, Indonesia, Turkey providing “neutral” Muslim engineers, while Saudi Arabia pays the bill but is not allowed to send any of its demonizers into the country.  Using the Strategic Analytic Model and approaching all of Iraq as a test-bed for a new form of multinational effort guided by a Global Range of Needs Table down to the household level, with every gift (cause and effect) visible online, could create a new Gold Standard for multinational harmonized peaceful preventive and stabilziation measures.

Reference: US Responsibility for Atrocities in Indonesia

04 Indonesia, 05 Civil War, 10 Security, Law Enforcement, Military

Full Source Online

Phi Beta Iota:  We take everything with some skepticism.  We are quite certain that 95% or more of the U.S. officers training Indonesian military and police personnel had no intention of enabling the atrocities that came later–the problem–as we personally experienced in Central America–is when the 1% to 5%, including personal emissaries from the White House, the Secretary of Defense, and the Central Intelligence Agency all say that there will be no U.S. retribution or blow-back from committing atrocities using US training, equipment, and forms of organization intended to counter bona-fide subversion.  Hence, one bad apple rots the entire barrel of good apples.

Journal: Impact Investing

03 Economy, 04 Indonesia, 08 Wild Cards, Commerce, Commercial Intelligence, Ethics
Full Story Online
Full Story Online

The idea that for-profit investment can have positive social and environmental impact has been talked about for some time, and is increasingly being put to practice. This phenomenon of Impact Investing has the potential to complement philanthropy and government in addressing to some of the planet’s most deeply entrenched challenges, including climate change, agricultural productivity, shelter, and health, among others. By tapping the global capital markets, impact investing can unlock financial resources to address these challenges at a scale that government and philanthropy cannot match.

Continue reading “Journal: Impact Investing”