NIGHTWATCH on European Union, Banks, and PIIGS

03 Economy, 08 Wild Cards, 11 Society, Civil Society, Commerce, Commercial Intelligence, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Law Enforcement

European Union: Reuters and other news services reported on 18 November that the European Commission will present a study that proposes three options for debt issuance for the Eurozone. The study indicates the European Union intends to exploit the debt crisis to undermine sovereignty in debtor countries, such as the PIIGS – Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain.

• The first law would link the acquisition of emergency loans from current and future bailout funds to the acceptance of economic monitoring by the Commission, which would be more extensive than that for Portugal, Ireland or Greece. If a eurozone member accepts this enhanced surveillance, it could mean the Commission would have an almost permanent presence in the nation.

• The second law would allow the Commission to evaluate draft budgets, suggest changes or draft a new budget. The Commission could also debate the budgets in a national parliament. These changes would not require a change to the EU treaty, which already states that economic policy is a common concern.

• The third law stipulates that budgets must be drafted based on forecasts from independent institutions, such as the Commission or the European Central Bank, rather than government agencies. The Commission will also propose that fiscal rules be written into national laws, preferably a country's constitution.

Comment: If the PIIGS accept these terms, they surrender national sovereignty. It is unlikely that the laws will be approved, but they make clear the intentions of the unelected Eurocrats to govern. Budgetary authority is government authority. The Eurocrats think they know better than the people of the PIIGS.

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Phi Beta Iota:  The only thing worse than democracy is everything else, and that everything else assuredly includes European technocrats who have deep conflicts of interest, deep gaps in their knowledge, deep gaps in their integrity, and zero appreciation for the realities that have led to this situation including deep corruption in both government and finance.  In a democracy, if politics and intelligence keep their integrity, there is no conflict and good policy results from good intelligence.  When either or both abandon their integrity, the people get screwed.  The LAST thing any of the weaker countries should do is listen to dictats from external “authorities.”  The re-nationalization of privatized public assets, and the criminal prosecution of all Goldman Sachs and other banking figures that lied to governments over the past decade, are two of the FIRST things each government should do.

See Also:

Journal: Politics & Intelligence–Partners Only When Integrity is Central to Both

NIGHTWATCH on Pakistan-US-Who Knows What

03 India, 05 Iran, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Blog Wisdom

Pakistan-US: Special comment. This week, the Pakistani ambassador to the US submitted his resignation for his involvement as a conduit for conveying a politically explosive memorandum from Pakistani President Zardari to Admiral Mullen, when he was US Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff. The Washington Post published the text of the memo whose authenticity, on a prima facie basis, is established by the ambassador's request to resign.

Continue reading “NIGHTWATCH on Pakistan-US-Who Knows What”

NIGHTWATCH: Afghanistan – Nothing New Since 2001

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 08 Wild Cards, Peace Intelligence

Afghanistan: Afghanistan will likely plunge into civil and regional war if the United States does not leave a residual force of 20,000 to 30,000 troops in the country after 2014, along with significant economic aid, a senior Afghan opposition figure said Thursday. ‘The state will disintegrate' and Afghan security forces will break into factions, said Mohammad Hanif Atmar, a former minister in the government of President Karzai.

Comment: The above assertion is not true in part. A residual US force would be primarily a target that would be too weak to prevent a return to civil war. As for the prediction of civil war — or more accurately tribal war — there is no power on earth than can stop it, whether the US keeps soldiers in Afghanistan or not. It has never stopped.

Nothing has been settled since 2001, including the terms for the distribution of wealth among the tribes; the role of Islam in government; ethnic relations between North and South; the ultimate form of the state; and finally, security.

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Theophilis Goodyear: Russia’s Chief Military Officer on Nuclear War Soon

04 Inter-State Conflict, 06 Russia, 10 Security, Cultural Intelligence, IO Deeds of War, Military
Think?

Russian military chief: War risks have grown

Associated Press, 17 November 2011

MOSCOW (AP) — Russia's chief military officer says the nation is facing an increased threat of being drawn into conflicts at its borders that may grow into an all-out nuclear war.

Gen. Nikolai Makarov, chief of the General Staff, pointed at NATO's expansion eastward and said Thursday that the risks for Russia to be pulled into local conflicts have “risen sharply.” He added, according to Russian news agencies wires, that “under certain conditions local and regional conflicts may develop into a full-scale war involving nuclear weapons.”

Read more.

DefDog: Russia-Europe-China Ignore US Cyber-Fools

02 China, 03 Economy, 06 Russia, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Computer/online security, Corruption, Government, IO Impotency
DefDog

Some background on this old report…..this conference has been going on for some time, fluctuates between Garmisch and Moscow…The US has offered to host it but has been consistently turned down. China showed up two years ago and the next conference (2012) is scheduled to be in Beijing…..if the US cannot, with is efforts in technological development, host a cyber conference it is indicative of what the rest of the world thinks of us….

Russia's Cyber Security Plans

As Washington airs plans for a new “cyber command,” a top Russian official discusses the threat of cyberweapons.

Phi Beta Iota:  The lack of intelligence and integrity in the US Government is chillingly deep, especially within the US secret intelligence, and nowhere more irresponsible than within the National Security Agency/US Cyber-Command – both oxymorons.  The Chinese are all over NSA and Cyber is not a Command.

See Also:

Continue reading “DefDog: Russia-Europe-China Ignore US Cyber-Fools”

NIGHTWATCH: Chinese Economy – Greece on Steroids

02 China

China: The Ministry of Commerce said on 16 November that China's exports are feeling pressure from global economic uncertainties. A spokesman said the ministry cannot be optimistic about the export situation during the coming period, citing a downshift in global economic recovery, a downgrade of the US credit rating and the expansion of the European debt crisis. He said that frequent protectionist measures and trade disputes have had a “relatively large influence” on China's exports and that these issues, along with rising costs at home, have complicated China's foreign trade outlook.

Comment: The Xinhua report is significant for several reasons. First it disclosed that the Chinese government expects that the credit rating of the United States will be downgraded. Second, the Chinese economists predict a contraction of the global economy. Finally, the Chinese anticipate a contraction of globalization as the result of protectionist policies, in other words, a reassertion of economic nationalism. The Chinese seem to expect that the export markets for cheap Chinese manufactures will shrink and the prices for raw materials will rise.

The apparent Chinese linkage of the US credit rating to the European debt crisis implies that the Chinese know or believe that US banks have much greater exposure to European sovereign debt than they have admitted. The Chinese assessment evidently is that Europe will drag down the US.

One Chinese economist, a professor of finance at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, recently wrote that the Chinese banking system is nearly bankrupt already and China's Gross Domestic Product is declining, but the Chinese are hiding the data. He wrote that “every province in China is Greece.”

This note is a warning to hedge bets in China in 2012.

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Phi Beta Iota:  Holistic analytics requires a responsible integration of all ten high level threats to humanity and all twelve core policy domains, among which energy and water are the most tangible.  Countries that fail to plan for long-term affordable energy and for the protection and renewal of potable water will inevitably fail.

Chuck Spinney: Paris-Berlin-Moscow Axis Reinstated

02 Diplomacy, 03 Economy, 06 Russia, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Justice, 10 Security, 11 Society, Articles & Chapters, Earth Intelligence, Ethics, Government, IO Deeds of Peace, Peace Intelligence
Chuck Spinney

The Paris-Berlin-Moscow Axis Back Again

by Immanuel Wallerstein

It always amazes me how the world's politicians and media spend most of their energy debating geopolitical prospects that are not going to happen, while ignoring major developments that are happening.

Here is a list of the most important coming non-events that we have been loudly debating and analyzing: Israel is not going to bomb Iran. The euro is not going to disappear. Outside powers are not going to engage in military action inside Syria. The upsurge of worldwide popular unrest is not going to fade away.

Meanwhile, to minimal serious coverage in the media and on the internet, the Nord Stream was inaugurated in Lubmin on Germany's Baltic Coast on Nov. 8 in the presence of Pres. Medvedev of Russia and the prime ministers of Germany, France, and the Netherlands, plus the director of Gazprom, Russia's gas exporter, and the European Union's Energy Commissioner. This is a geopolitical game-changer, unlike all the widely discussed non-events that are not going to happen.

Continue reading “Chuck Spinney: Paris-Berlin-Moscow Axis Reinstated”

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