Review: The Next Catastrophe–Reducing Our Vulnerabilities to Natural, Industrial, and Terrorist Disasters

6 Star Top 10%, Capitalism (Good & Bad), Complexity & Catastrophe, Congress (Failure, Reform), Corruption, Disaster Relief, Environment (Problems), Executive (Partisan Failure, Reform), Nature, Diet, Memetics, Design
Amazon Page
Amazon Page

Superb, Crystal-Clear, Speaks Truth to Power, April 3, 2008

Charles Perrow

Amazon destroyed this review in error and I failed to keep a file copy. This is a reconstructed review–not nearly as good as the original–nothing I can do about it.

———-reconstructed review————-

This book is a learned essay, and I immediately discerned (I tend to read the index and bibliographies first, to understand the provenance of the author's knowledge) that the author has excelled at both casting a very wide net for sources, and at distilling and presenting those sources in a useful new manner with added insights.

Key points:

Natural disasters impact on 6 times more people than all the conflict on the planet.

Industrial irresponsibility, especially in the nuclear, chemical, and biological industries, is legion, and much more potentially catastrophic than any terrorist attack. Of special concern is the storage of large amounts of toxic, flammable, volatile, or reactive materials outside the security perimeters–this includes spent nuclear fuel rods, railcars with 90,000 tons of chlorine that if combined with fire would put millions at risk.

The entire book is an indictment of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) which the author says was designed for permanent failure (at the same time that it took over and then gutted the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)).

The author focuses on how concentrations of people, energy, and high-value economic targets make us more vulnerable than we need to be. Dispersal, and moving small amounts of toxic materials (just enough just in time, rather than a year's supply on site), can help.

The author outlines five remediation strategies:

REDUCTIONS of amounts

TRANSFERS from outside the wire to inside the wire

SUBSTITUTION (e.g. of bleach for chlorine)

MIND-SET SHIFT to emphasize public safety and regulation over profit

REFORM of the political system, where federal laws now set CEILINGS for safety rather than floors (one of many reasons we have 27 secessionist movements in the USA–the federal government is insolvent and abjectly corrupt and incapable).

We learn that post-9/11 we have spent tens of billions on counter-terrorism to ill-effect, while completely neglecting rudimentary precautions and protections against natural and industrial disasters that will inevitably turn into catastrophes for lack of competent organizations.

The author emphasizes that complex systems will fail no matter what, but it is much more dangerous to the public if the government and the industrial executives refuse to do their jobs. The author coins the term “executive failure” to describe top leaders who deliberately decide to ignore federal regulations on safety, and describes a number of situations where near-nuclear meltdown and other disasters came too close to reality.

The power grid, PRIOR TO deregulation, is treated as a model of a system that developed with six positive traits:

1. Bottom-up
2. Voluntary alliances
3. Shared facilities at cost
4. Members support independent research & development
5. Oversight stresses commonality interdependence
6. Deregulation is harmful to public safety

The author sums up the enduring sources of failure as:

ORGANIZATIONAL — flawed by design (pyramidal organizations cannot scale nor digest massive amounts of new fast information)

EXECUTIVE — deliberate high crimes and misdemeanors, seeking short-term profit without regard to long-term costs to the public safety. “We almost lost Toledo.” Buy the book for that story alone.

REGULATORY — the corruption of Congress, now known to be legendary.

The author tells us that globalization has eliminated the “water-tight bulkheads” within industries and economies, meaning that single points of failure (like the Japanese factory making silicon chips) can impact around the world and immediately. The author prefers to nurture networks of small firms, and this is consistent with other books I have read: economies of scale are no longer, they externalize more costs to the public than they save in efficiencies.

The book ends with an overview of the Internet, which is not the author's forte. He notes that our critical infrastructure is connected to the Internet, but I like to add emphasis here: all of our SCADA (supervisory control and data administration) are on the Internet and hackable.

I like very much the author's view that Microsoft and others should be held liable for security blunders that cost time and money to the end users. I recall that Bill Gates once said that if cars were built like computers they would cost very little and run forever….to which the auto industry executive replied: yes, and they would crash every four blocks and kill every fourth person (or something along those lines). We still do not have a desktop analytic suite of tool because of proprietary protections for legacy garbage.

I am certain that We the People can live up to the promise contained in Collective Intelligence: Creating a Prosperous World at Peace which, as with all books I publish, is free online as well as being offered by Amazon for those who love to hold and read and annotate hard copy.

Here are other books I recommend all of which support the author's very grave concerns about our irresponsibility as a Nation:
Pandora's Poison: Chlorine, Health, and a New Environmental Strategy
The Blue Death: Disease, Disaster, and the Water We Drink
The Cheating Culture: Why More Americans Are Doing Wrong to Get Ahead
The Informant: A True Story
Conspiracy of Fools: A True Story
The Republican War on Science
The Price of Loyalty : George W. Bush, the White House, and the Education of Paul O'Neill
The Soul of Capitalism: Opening Paths to a Moral Economy
The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of Oil, Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century

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Review: RV Repair and Maintenance Manual–Updated and Expanded

5 Star
RV Repair
Amazon Page

Outstanding! Trouible-Shooting Pages a Superb Value, April 2, 2008

Bob Livingston

My wife inherited a 1988 Winnebago (31 foot, no slide-outs) and we've decided to bring it up to speed for beach trips. This is one of two books I have bought to get started, and it is the better of the two, but I like them both.

This book is absolutely one the best car maintenance books I have ever had the pleasure of using (I also have a 1964 MGB and related maintenance books). This book is brilliantly organized, crystal-clear, and I especially appreciate the full-page trouble-shooting guide with symptoms and fixes in two columns.

I also recommend RV Owner's Handbook, Revised (Rv Owner's Handbook) but I use that for overview reading. If you want only one book, buy the Trailer Life book, it is vastly more detailed and useful with respect to each individual system in any given RV.

I have not bought but want to flag Woodall's RV Owner's Handbook: The Complete, Illustrated Guide to Preventative Maintenance & Repairs for consideration.

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Review: The Hidden Power of Social Networks–Understanding How Work Really Gets Done in Organizations

5 Star, Best Practices in Management, Information Society, Intelligence (Collective & Quantum), Intelligence (Commercial)

Hidden PowerOutstanding Overview for CEOs and MBAs going into HR, August 1, 2008

Robert L. Cross

Ben Gilad, one of the top five business intelligence gurus that I know, teaches us that CEO information is invariably filtered, late, incomplete, and/or subjective, lacking in analytic rigor (and in my own experience, based on the easy 2% of the information the subordinates can access easily). CEOs have to not only create their own internal “organizational intelligence” unit, they have to read for themselves–reading and thinking cannot be delegated.

This is a great book, an essential reference for CEOs who are willing to open their minds and consider the possibility that the Weberian model of bureaucracy as knowledge-hoarding and information pigeon-holing is pathologically out of touch with the the diversity and pace of the modern world.

I do not agree with those that dismiss this book as being for consultants. It is an easy to read, well-organized, and ably-ducumented offering (including appendices with specific questions for exploration, and before and after charts).

I am loading a chart above of the four quadrants of knowledge, information, and intelligence that I have been exploring since the 1990's.

1. Most organizations are barely familiar with Quadrant I (Knowledge Management or data mining or making the most of what we already know.

2. A few are in Phase I of Quadrant II, on levering social networks both internally and externally–the Business Week cover story of 20 June 2005 on “The Power of Us” is a superb starting point for that one.

3. A handful of us have been focusing on Quadrant III since the 1990's, and Peter Drucker, writing in Forbes ASAP on 28 August 1998 said it best: “We have spent 50 years focusing on the T in IT, we should spend the next 50 years focusing on the I in IT.”

4. Finally, also the seminal work was written in 1967 (Organizational Intelligence (Knowledge and Policy in Government and Industry), most organizations, and the US Government and United Nations in particular, are deaf, dumb, and blind in Quadrant IV, Organizational Intelligence.

I like this book. It is not a cookie-cutter book, it is a serious stepping stone for anyone wanting to think about the move away from pyramidal organizations and toward ever-expanding circular organizations.

Other books in this vein recommended for CEOs (see also my Leadership list):
The Battle for the Soul of Capitalism
Natural Capitalism: Creating the Next Industrial Revolution
The Knowledge Executive
The exemplar: The exemplary performer in the age of productivity
Early Warning: Using Competitive Intelligence to Anticipate Market Shifts, Control Risk, and Create Powerful Strategies
Fog Facts: Searching for Truth in the Land of Spin
The Wealth of Networks: How Social Production Transforms Markets and Freedom
Society's Breakthrough!: Releasing Essential Wisdom and Virtue in All the People
Building a Knowledge-Driven Organization

I also recommend the six books I have published, espeically the ones on public intelligence and collective intelligence and on information operations, and books on the general topic of group gtenius, wisdom of the crowds, smart mobs, and so on.

Review: Whores in History–Prositution in Western Society

5 Star, Culture, DVD - Light, Values, Ethics, Sustainable Evolution

Superb in All Respects–Should be Reprinted & Updated, July 31, 2008

Nickie Roberts

Let me start the review where the book ends, with a United Nations quote that says that women do two thirds of the world's work, twice as much as the men, while receiving only 10% of the income. Bottom line: selling their bodies, on their terms, is the fastest, best route for women to what the author summarizes as better pay, easier working conditions, and greater autonomy than that achieved by most women as wives in captivity to one man, more often than not as property rather than as an equal.

I have a note to myself early on that in whoredom (harlot, coutesan–my preferred term) women are on a level playing field with men, unlike ANY other profession or calling.

The author, herself a Soho hooker who wrote The Front Line, has scoured English, French, and other sources, 154 of them to be exact, and I am enormously impressed by her combination of detailed historical review, personal insight, and gifted articulation.

Perhaps the most important point, both a thread across the book and a conclusion at the end, is that feminists have no clue–they have bought into the male condemnation of whores as “bad girls,” and do not realize that the self-directed whore is the ultimate winner across all fields, especially when they acquire enough in savings to retire to the profession or trade of their choice in their late twenties or early thirties–all without having to deal with drunken husbands, household slavery, or unwanted children–indeed, many retire into wifedom but on their terms, with their money, and the man of their choice.

Here are highlights from my flyleaf notes:

+ Whores defy control by males and chart their own course
+ Selling sex overtly equals economic independence
+ Author credits all others upon whose work she draws
+ This book restores the “hidden history” of the whore as courtesan and–until men overthrew matriarchial society–goddess and mother-figure
+ Margo St. James was the first whore to fight openly for prostitute rights (the book ends with a survey of 1970's prostitute protection societies across US, Canada, Australia, and Europe)
+ Whores are *interesting*
+ Open discussion can–must–eradicate the false distinction of “good versus bad girls.”
+ 25,000 years of matriarchy were overturned by male force once
+ Women in history have provided 65% of the food gathering, and the related tools
+ Temple priestesses were first goddesses *and* the first whores
+ Author has a thread throughout that whores are compassionate and a civilizing influence on society, tempering the lust and healing the wounded (throughout, whores have also been nurses, actresses, and companions).
+ Double-standard has existed since time immemorial, and even great philosophers, including Rosseau, have treated women as property.
+ Jews and the Old Testament sought to place all women as the property of a man–the author is brutal on Jews, on the Catholic Church, on Protestants, and on Puritans, each in turn rising well beyond the previous in witch hunts, humiliations, and abuses against all women.
+ Dictators, especially Solon, turned “wives” into virtual slaves, under house arrest, with no education
+ Author draws the direct choice as between wife/slave and whore/equal and independent.
+ Author's historical review stresses that the great whose of time have been courtesans who were an elite, the full companions of nobles and the wealthy, free, intellectual, witty, and good at business.
+ Whores have typically been TRAINED, not only in sex, but in the arts and sciences sufficient to thrust and parry with any educated man
+ Emperors and Kings overtime have been among the most depraved and libertine, many striken with syphillis, many with homosexual or pedophilic cravings
+ Mutual solidarity among whores is a recurring theme
+ Author states that the Catholic Church in particular set humanity back thousands of years in its ignorant and indiscriminate condemnation of all that it feared or did not understand
+ Page 93 is a lovely list of street names that represent the overt and broad influence of whores on society: Codpiece Alley, Gropecunt Street, Slut's Hole, Cuckold Court, Whore's Nest–all real streets in the history of London–similar names are provided for France and Germany.
+ The author excells at “naming names” of both nobles who consorted with whores, and of the “great” whores of all time, many of them naturally English
+ The author brings out a thread of middle-class wives taking up prostitution, generally part-time or occasional, as a means of gaining some form of independent means.
+ 17th Century introduced sadism, 18th Century brought forth all manner of specialty debauchery.
+ Throughout history, lesbianism, homosexuality, and bisexuality have been common and generally accepted
+ The criminalization of the sex trade dramatically increased the spread of disease, but the author notes that there is no record in modern history of a whore spreading a disease, that it is the customer who is ignorant and must be educated about the vital need for condoms
+ Extreme poverty inevitably increases the number of women (and sometimes children) who turn to prostitution
+ Police consistently blackmail and abuse whores and their madams
+ 18th Century math: whore earns $50 a week, working women $1 a week
+ 19th Century brought us the psychic castration of women, idea that women could not have sexuality
+ She blows away the white slave trade myth
+ 20th Century, Rockefeller and others, destroyed prospects for women who sought to be independent whores
+ Today 70% of the whores are middle class women declaring their independence from hypocritical or overly dominating structures, *and* escort services for women are increasing
+ Street whoring is antithetical to common crime

I end this review with a quote from page 339, citing Carol Leigh alias Scarlot Harlot, “Sex work is nurturing, healing work. It could be considered a high calling. Prostitutes are great women, veritable priestesses.”

There is a great deal to think about in this book. See also:

Improper behavior
Teaching to Transgress: Education as the Practice of Freedom
Pedagogy of Freedom: Ethics, Democracy, and Civic Courage (Critical Perspectives Series)
Disturbing the Peace: A Conversation with Karel Huizdala
Sleeping with the Devil: How Washington Sold Our Soul for Saudi Crude

Review: The Penguin Atlas of World History–Volume 1: From Prehistory to the Eve of the French Revolution

4 Star, Atlases & State of the World, History

Atlas HistoryHistorical Atlas, Priceless, Missing Three Big Things, July 30, 2008

Hermann Kinder

I am providing the same review for Volumes I and II.

The two volumes, together, represent an essential and priceless reference replete with details as well as clever visualizations. I venture to say that it is not possible to understand the sway of history in all its forms without such an atlas. It is, however, missing three big things:

1) Consolidated edition, larger print and larger pages. The gold in these two volumes is devalued by the reductions. Enough. Update it for 2009 and let's get it right. It makes no sense to have to use one volume for the Middle East prior to the French Revolution, another for afterwards.

2. I could not find, in the book or via an online search, an online version of the consolidated books or even one of the books. I regard it as *essential* that Penguin begin to transition all of its excellent knowledge, and especially its atlases, into interactive online form so that one can, for example, flip through any region or topic (e.g. Islam or US imperialism) and “see” history passing before one's eyes.

3. There a re a handful of automated time series depictions, e.g. of the spread and contraction of religions, the spead and contraction of various empires. We need that from Penguin for every country, every region, and every threat and policy, and I list them here from the UN High-Level Threat Panel and Earth Intelligence Network:

Poverty
Infectious Disease
Environmental Degradation
Inter-State Conflict
Civil War
Genocide
Other Atrocities
Proliferation
Terrorism
Transnational Crime

Agriculture
Diplomacy
Economy
Education
Energy
Family
Health
Immigration
Justice
Security
Society
Water

I am deeply impressed by the quality and focus on Penguin Publications. It's time they discovered the 21st Century and the demand of Digital Natives as well as global strategists for coherent holistic online visualization and sense-making.

Here are other books on history that I consider exceptional, each with a summative review:
The Lessons of History
The Landscape of History: How Historians Map the Past
Lost History: Contras, Cocaine, the Press & ‘Project Truth'
Web of Deceit: The History of Western Complicity in Iraq, from Churchill to Kennedy to George W. Bush
The Sorrows of Empire: Militarism, Secrecy, and the End of the Republic (The American Empire Project)
1491: New Revelations of the Americas Before Columbus
Fog Facts: Searching for Truth in the Land of Spin
The Age of Missing Information

And for the future:
Collective Intelligence: Creating a Prosperous World at Peace

Review: The Executive’s Guide to Information Technology

3 Star, Information Technology

Executive ITWith Regret, Must Give This Earnest Effort a Three, July 30, 2008

John Baschab

Few people know that I was responsible for developing the original advanced information technology applications in pilot (artificial intelligence, expert systems, natural language understanding, smart maps with a memory of operational history, etcetera) for the CIA, and served on both the Advanced Information Processing and Analysis Steering Group and on the Information Handing Committee, both national level secret bodies. I also stood up the USMC Intelligence Center (today a Command) and wasted $20 million on the wrong high-end “stuff” while neglecting access to external content.

This book has an identity problem. On the one hand, it claims to be a guide for executives (who: CEO, corporate vice presidents, division chiefs?), and on the other, it provides an enormous amount of detail about managing the information technology investment and operations–information I would expect my CTO to have firmly in hand before he or she ever got hired.

This book (second edition published in 2007) also fails to mention:

Analytics or analytic tradecraft
Anomaly detection
Cloud computing
Data mining
External sources
Knowledge management
Pattern analysis
Semantic web
Social networks
Warning
Web 2.0 (or 3.0 or 4.0)

Return on Investment (RoI) is defined on page xvi and not mentioned again, at least according to the index, which is where I decide whether a large volume is worth my time. This index–this book–failed that test.

Decision making gets one reference (page 525), decision trees get two pages (310, 467).

Business intelligence and competitive intelligence do not appear in this book (according to the index).

Risk management focuses on management of the IT investment risk, not on risk management of every aspect of the organization from personnel to facilities to production to inventory to supplier vetting and so on.

Bottom line: this is a university primer for kids hoping to one day be a Chief Technology Officer. It is NOT a guide for executives. It is a summary of what the top three CTO folks should have in their DNA from day one (which is often not the case).

I am guided in my crankiness by Peter Drucker, who wrote in Forbes ASAP of 28 August 1998, that we have spent the last fifty years focusing on the T in IT, and now need to spend the next 50 years focusing on the I in IT. Generally, IT provides both a *negative* return on investment, and does nothing to create, nurture, and exploit “organizational intelligence.” Enough said.

Other books that I prefer to this one:
The Politics of Information Management: Policy Guidelines
The Business Value of Computers – An Executive's Guide (Information Technology Findings and Recommendations)
Information Payoff: The Transformation of Work in the Electronic Age
Building a Knowledge-Driven Organization
The Knowledge Executive
The exemplar: The exemplary performer in the age of productivity
Group Genius: The Creative Power of Collaboration
The Wealth of Networks: How Social Production Transforms Markets and Freedom
Organizational Intelligence (Knowledge and Policy in Government and Industry)
One from Many: VISA and the Rise of Chaordic Organization

See also the books I have published.

Review: Seeing What’s Next–Using Theories of Innovation to Predict Industry Change

5 Star, Best Practices in Management, Change & Innovation, Future

Seeing NextBook-End for Prahalad's Fortune at the Bottom, July 29, 2008

Clayton M. Christensen

The primary author's first two books were each sensational in their own way–.I was particularly gripped by his description of the throw-away camara as being unattractive to the high-end camara shops, but when adopted by grocery stores, led to the 90% of the non-consumers of high-end camaras getting into photography. The key: low-cost offering for the non-consumers introduced outside the incumbent arena.

That is the heart of this new book, and the addition of two co-authors suggest that the author's vision is spreading.

I actually read the two chapters on education and health care first–the first because my oldest son blew off his senior year in high school at not worthy of his time, and is now racking up community college credits at very low cost (with the same instructors from the higher cost Geroge Mason University) and is a living embodiment of the education chapters first focus: what matters is not credentialling from the higher end universities, but the low cost acquisition of “just enough just right” learning from key teachers (the brand is shifting from schools to teachers).

Both the education and the health chapters drive home three big points that I find compelling and exciting in the context of C. K. Prahalad's The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid: Eradicating Poverty Through Profits (Wharton School Publishing Paperbacks):

1. The innovation and profit opportunities are with the non-consumers–the ultimate non-0consumers today are the five billion poor, and especially the 1.5 billion each in China and in India, two countries that have the capability to create call centers for “just enough just in time” learning via cell phone.

2. The keys to health innovation, both in the developed world of one billioin rich and in the undeveloped world of the five billion poor, are:

a. Creating “good enough” solutions that are very low cost and easy to push into remote areas that could not afford high end care; and

b. Pushing innovation down the pyramid from the expensive sites and specialists to the nurse-practitioners and ultimately to the patient themselves; while also moving the diagnostics and the remedies down to the point of care and aware from the hospital “hubs” that are now as antiquated as the airline “hubs” that block point to point travel.

Chapter Ten on “The Future of Telecommunications gave me goose-bumps. No kidding. Thunderclaps and blinding lighting accompanied the third page of this chapter, in part because I have been thinking about Open Spectrum (see David Weinberger's brilliant chapter on this, free online, and also his new book, a sensational new book, Everything Is Miscellaneous: The Power of the New Digital Disorder. Althought the chapter focuses priimarily on wireless versus hardline hardware options, and does not mention either the obvious fact that satellites still have too much delay for ubiquitous wireless from outer space (something that should go away in ten years with higher energy pulses), or the other obvious fact, that even wireless is being commoditized and that on demand services and sense-making are the next big offering from the innovators, I found this chapter compelling. Arthur Clarke said long ago that telecommunications should be more or less free as an enabler, and I agree. We need to make both communications and education free to all, and monetize the transactions, the patterns, the early warning, and the aggregate sense-making.

The next most important chapter for me was Chapter 3, “Strategic Choices: Identifying Which Choices Matter.” What stuck with me are three things:

1. Start early–don't wait for everyone else to realize the need

2. Hire accordingly. This is HUGE. Most companies have a profile for new employees that is 20 years out of date. Most companies have no clue that Digital Natives are completely different from Digital Immigrants (as one author notes: this is the first generation where the kids are not little version of us–they are a metaphysical transformation well beyond us and anything we can comprehend). Hence, companies have to have the leadership needed to create a “safe” skunkworks where iconoclasts and others who are largely antithetical to the gerbils and drones hired in the past, can innovate without having to deal with the insecurities, ignorance, bad habits, and “rankism” of those trapped in the pyramidal paradigms of the past.

The Appendix provides a summary of key concepts and has some really excellent illustrations that are very helpful. The point within the Appendex that escaped me earlier in the book and was driven home here is that ultimately the innovative firms make investments as a means of learning, not as a means of realizing their pre-conceived notions of what is needed next. I continue to recommend the Business Week cover story of 20 June 2005, “The Power of Us.” Innovation, it appears to me, works best when firms both hire and invest to learn, *and* dramatically and deliberately expand the stakeholder circle to embrace the end-user being sought as a customer.

The rest of the book is very worthwhile for those that do not read broadly in the business or innovation leadership.

Other books that I have found as exciting at this one:
Groundswell: Winning in a World Transformed by Social Technologies
Mobilizing Generation 2.0: A Practical Guide to Using Web2.0 Technologies to Recruit, Organize and Engage Youth
The Change Handbook: The Definitive Resource on Today's Best Methods for Engaging Whole Systems
Society's Breakthrough!: Releasing Essential Wisdom and Virtue in All the People
How to Change the World: Social Entrepreneurs and the Power of New Ideas, Updated Edition
The leadership of civilization building: Administrative and civilization theory, symbolic dialogue, and citizen skills for the 21st century
The Wealth of Networks: How Social Production Transforms Markets and Freedom

Finally, a book I published with 55 contributors, free online but utterly wonderful in

noble gold