Review: Seven Tomorrows

5 Star, Change & Innovation, Environment (Solutions), Future, Survival & Sustainment, True Cost & Toxicity, Values, Ethics, Sustainable Evolution

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Published in 1982, Relevant Today and Proven with Time,

December 13, 2006
Paul Hawken
I am finding that many of the books from the 1970's and 1980's that focused on Limits to Growth, the global reach of multinational corporations, the dangers of centralized financial power, are all becoming accutely relevant now. They were a quarter century before the mainstream, and are now ready to be accepted and acted on by at least 80 million in the USA alone.

This is such a book. It focuses on five “driving trends”: energy, climate, food, the economy, and values. The latter is especially important, as we discover that our failure to adapt our educational systems, and our failure to *have* national values, insisting on government being “neutral,” has actually made us hollow and vulnerable.

The set the stage by listing key factors that today are much more worse: diverse social values, a turbulent world devoid of the stabilizing influence of the Cold War, slow energy growth, burdensome debt (who could have imagined what Bush-Cheney would do), an aging population, slowing economic growth, a social legacy of distrust (which also increases the costs of doing business), no end to crime (now $2 trillion a year, which along with $2 trillion in waste, makes the remaining $5 trillion in legal economics seem much devalued), continuing environmental degradation, rising level of disease and related costs, and deterioration of soil (meaning topsoil, which pesticides have now poisoned).

The authors had no way of knowing in 1982 that in 2006 the High Level Threat Panel of the United Nations would identify the ten global threats as poverty, infectuous disease, environmental degradation, inter-state conflict, civil war, genocide, other atrocities, proliferation, terrorism, and transnational crime. For the cost of this book in 1982, we could have saved a quarter century of loss had the adults at the time been willing to listen.

In the manner made so internationally respected by Peter Schwartz, who is one of the three authors, the book then posits a positive, middle of the road, and negative future for each of the five driving trends, and from that combination, then derives the seven scenarios that are ours to choose from:

1) The Official Future
2) The Center Holds
3) Mature Calm
4) Chronic Breakdown
5) Apocalyptic Transformation
6) Beginnings of Sorrow
7) Living Within Our Means

Each is discussed in detail, including tables showing specific countries likely to prosper or decline, and specific occupations likely to be in demand or face extinction.

The book ends with a discussion of cultural economics and why values matter, and provides at the end three tables of values as the authors anticipated they would be among a Right Wing, a Left Wing, and a Transformation Alternative. The latter, contrary to my expectations, is not a balanced reasoned transpartisan value system, but one that romanticizes some aspects and ignores other (e.g. crime and national-level threats including poverty).

The author first posit an emphasis on decentralization (today I use the word localization) and also address the dangers of moving so far in favor of individualism that the good of the group is lost sight of.

The bibliography is as fine a list of important books from the decade preceeding the publication of this book as to be worthy of study on its own merits.

I put the book down lamenting how ill-suited our current systems of governance and business are to the need for listening to reasonable people who can actually forecast the future and warn us of the dire consequences. Peak Oil was well known in 1974-1979, but because of the values in place, the Senate and the oil companies felt they could ignore the problem and deceive the majority of the people–the many who did not read or think about such matters, postponing the day of reckoning, which is today, and dramatically reducing our flexibility while increasing the cost to future generations of the remedial measures.

This book is still relevant, and indeed all the more enjoyable in the context of the two latest books by Paul Hawkins and friends, and the forthcoming book “Blessed Unrest.” I was fortunate to buy this book from a third party through Amazon, and am quite pleased to have it for its current value as well as its tangible demonstration that we did indeed have smart people a quarter century ago who knew exactly where we would end up if we continue with “the official story” of endless growth without regard to the “natural capital” of the planet.

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Review: Natural Capitalism–Creating the Next Industrial Revolution

6 Star Top 10%, Capitalism (Good & Bad), Economics, Future, Nature, Diet, Memetics, Design, Values, Ethics, Sustainable Evolution

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The One Book That Can Save Capitalism & The Planet,

December 12, 2006
Paul Hawken
Edit of 19 Jan 08 to add links.

This book is pro-business, pro-market, and pro-life. It outlines how profits can be made by going green and getting in touch with the actual cost of goods and services. It demonstrates how efficiencies can produce a 71% per year after tax Return on Investment (ROI).

On page 261, the following quote summarizes the intellectual victory that this book represents over economic fundamentalism: “That theology treats living things as dead, nature as a nuisance, several billion years' design experience as casually discard able, and the future as worthless.”

The three authors are “originals” whose genius dates back to the 1980's, and I am finding that the books written in the 1970's and 1980's were a quarter-century before their time of acceptance, and now pressing urgent and relevant.

They advocate a shift from a production economy that disregards the actual costs of goods, toward a service economy in which durability, ease of repair, and the elimination of waste transforms commerce so that we have sustainable profit, not short-term destructive profit.

The basic premise of the book is that in the next 100 years the population will double while available natural resources will drop by one half to three quarters.

The authors are damningly trenchant when they point out that we have taken just 300 years to consume 3.8 billion years of natural capital by turning scarce resources into permanent waste.

I am at one with these authors when they suggest that labor is now abundant–I for one believe that national leaders must demand full employment and cease substituting technology, which requires natural capital, for human capital. We need to reverse the process and restore full employment, community-based resource allocation.

In the course of two days with this book, I pulled 21 key ideas that I list here in tribute to these authors and their work:

1) Cars can generate electricity during the 90% of the time they are parked, and this will allow the replacement of ALL coal and nuclear plants

2) We waste 1 million pounds per person per year in the USA

3) Authors are saving business, not fighting business

4) Two trillion out of nine trillion in the total economy per year is waste of no value, including time spent in automobile gridlock

5) Real-time feedback is the number one resource saver

6) Biological processes create Kevlar strength silk (spiders) and walls (oysters)–we should emulate them instead of continuing our toxic ways.

7) Green buildings increase human productivity while reducing waste

8) Continuous education of designers and engineers is the single best investment for continually updating our ability to eliminate waste

9) Point to point air travel in smaller more numerous aircraft is a much more efficient alterative to the hub systems

10) We must end our perverse subsidies of wasteful agricultural, energy, forestry, fishery and other harmful practices by publicizing the foolish budget allocations

11) We should tax pollution and waste rather than income

12) Agricultural residues can be used to make paper, which can be recycled and substituted (e.g. electronic). We must end junk mail and unneeded packaging that outlasts its contents.

13) Restore localized agriculture, deep sustainable farming that does not deplete topsoil, get smart on water and fuel consumption.

14) Get a national water policy and water education, recover all rain (which can meet all of Africa's needs), use gray water; get a grip on toilets to include separate capture of urine and feces.

15) Protect the climate

16) Conserving energy is cheaper, faster, better than trying to produce more

17) Canceling or updating antiquated laws long overdue (for example, giving away billions of gold based on 1800 laws, for pennies)

18) Adjust prices to reflect external costs

19) Implement no fault insurance purchased at the pump

20) Create information feedback loops at all levels

21) Need systemic approach (what I call the ten threats, twelve policies, eight challengers) to avoid unintended spill-over consequences

22) The market cannot do it all. We need government.

Above all intelligence and information can make this happen. Simply labeling switches allows localized awareness and individual actions to save energy. The lack of accurate and up to date information is the largest correctible deficiency

I put this book down hoping that I might one day be able to take the secret intelligence budget of $60 billion a year, cut it by two thirds, and apply one third of that budget to implementing this book's ideas, and one third to creating a new form of global education that is continuous, free, online, in every language, and equally balanced between structured human teaching, interactive social networking, and self-paced online learning through serious games.

There is plenty of money and plenty of brainpower to save our planet and our quality of life while elevating the five billion poor, what we lack is inspired political transpartisan leadership, and a model, perhaps a model to be created in British Columbia, Washington, and Oregon.

I want to be part of this “big push” and am in awe of these authors and the big ideas they represent.

My top ten green to gold books:
The Limits to Growth
Seven Tomorrows
Silent Spring
Ecological Economics: Principles And Applications
High Noon 20 Global Problems, 20 Years to Solve Them
The Future of Life
Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization, Third Edition
Green to Gold: How Smart Companies Use Environmental Strategy to Innovate, Create Value, and Build Competitive Advantage
Cradle to Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make Things

I would also point with enormous respect to books on green chemistry, beneficial bacteria, sustainable design, and what I think of as the “home rule” literature: an end to corporate personality, localized agriculture, localized credit (e.g. Interra Project), and an end to absentee landlords and mega farms that produce indigestible corn for cattle whose waste gets into our spinach, and for fuel (one tank of ethanol consumes enough corn to feed an individual for an entire year).

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Review: The Ecology of Commerce–A Declaration of Sustainability

6 Star Top 10%, Best Practices in Management, Complexity & Resilience, Economics, Environment (Solutions), Intelligence (Commercial), Nature, Diet, Memetics, Design, Values, Ethics, Sustainable Evolution

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Foundation Reference for Future of Business Without Waste,

December 8, 2006
Paul Hawken
This is easily one of the top ten books on the pragmatic reality of what Herman Daly calls “ecological economics” (see my list of Environmental Security).

The author excels at painting a holistic view of the realities that are not being addressed by the media or by scholars in anything other than piecemeal fashion.

The bottom line: what we are doing now in the face of accelerating decay (changes and losses that used to take 10,000 years now take three years) is the equivalent of “trying to bail out the Titanic with teaspoons.” On page 21-22 the author states that we are using 10,000 days of energy creation every day, or 27 years of energy each day.

This is a practical book. In brief, we can monetize the costs of the decay, we can show people the *real* cost of each product and in this way inspire both boycotts (of wasteful products) and boycotts (Jim Turner's term) of solar energy and long-lasting repairable products.

The author appears to be both pro-business and very wise in seeing that the cannot save the environment by destroying business, but rather must save business so it can save the environment–we must help business understand that doing more with less is what they must do to survive.

The author includes a recurring theme from the literature, that diversity is an option generator, and hence one of the most precious aspects of life on Earth. Diversity is the ultimate source of wealth, and anything that reduces diversity is impoverishing the planet and mankind. In a magnificent turn of phrase, the author states that the loss of a species is the loss of a biological library.

At its root this book is about missing information, needed information, about the urgency of making all inputs, processes, and outputs from corporate production transparent. He quotes Vaclav Havel on page 54 as saying that this is an information challenge, a challenge of too much (or too little) information and not enough actionable intelligence supporting sustainable sensible outcomes.

This is also a financial problem that has not been monetized properly. Although E. O. Wilson takes a crack at the strategic or gross costs of saving the Earth in his book “The Future of Life,” this author looks at the retail level and describes the waste inherent in our military system. He reminds me of Derek Leebaert's “The 50 Year Wound” when he notes that the US and the USSR spent over 10 trillion dollars on the Cold War, enough to completely re-make the entire infrastructure of Earth, including all schools. As I myself like to note, for the half trillion we have spent on the war against Iraq, we could instead have given a free $50 cell phone to each of the 5 billion poor people, and changed the planet forever.

The author is compelling in pointing out that conservation alone would save more energy than drilling in Alaska, and that President Reagan not rolled back gasoline mileage expectations, we would today be free of any dependency of Middle Eastern energy.

A good part of the book focuses on the need to eliminate waste, what some call “cradle to cradle” (waste must be fully absorbed of other pieces of the system), and where waste cannot be eliminated, to include the cost of its storage in the price of the product, requiring producers of products to take them back (e.g. refrigerators).

I am inspired by the author's view that not only is technology NOT a complete solution, but that full employment is possible if we REDUCE our excessive acquisition of technology that not only replaces humans, but also consumes energy and produces pollution.

This is an extraordinarily clever and useful book that fully integrates discussions of feedback loops and especially of financial and legal feedback loops that are now misrepresentative. One example the author uses is the GATT demand that there be no discrimination of “like” products based on methods of production. This is code for blocking labor laws by imposing high tariffs on products made by slaves or under sweatshop conditions.

I completely agree with one of the author's most important opinions, that we must end corporate claims of “personality” and the rights of a person. This has had two pernicious effects, the first allowing corporations to dominate the public debate; and the second of exempting managers from legal liability and transparency.

The book emphasized the restoration of human and natural capital as vital foundations for evaluating investments–this would dramatically reduce the financial criteria's dominance and emphasis on short-term returns that do not reflect the cost of natural resources and lost jobs to the future and the community.

Distressingly but importantly, the author notes that a major component of the cost of goods is in advertising, where corporations spend more on advertising than the government spends on all secondary schools, and on packaging, much of which is designed to last vastly longer than the contents.

I especially liked the author's suggestion that insurance costs be included in the price of homes and of gasoline, essentially making universal insurance affordable for all. I also liked his idea for indexing Nations by their sustainability, i.e. Most Sustainable Nation (MSN).

The author ends with a restatement of his three fundamentals:

1) End waste
2) Shift to renewable power (solar and hydro)
3) Create accountability and feedback

Although this book was published in 1993 and the author has now published “Natural Capital” (next on my reading list), I did not discover it until recently and am now very enthused about the author's newest project, the World Index of Social and Environmental Responsibility (WISER). I am certain in my heart that a bottom up Earth Intelligence Network is forming, and that end-user voluntary labor–social networks–are going to place enough information in the hands of individuals to restore participatory democracy and moral communal capitalism. This author is extraordinary in his understanding and his ability to teach adults about reality and the future.

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Review: Love You, Daddy Boy–Daughters Honor the Fathers They Love

5 Star, Civil Society, Culture, Research, Values, Ethics, Sustainable Evolution

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Family Above Party (or Exclusive Religions),

October 22, 2006
Karyn McLaughlin Frist
I had the pleasure,on the flight from Lubbock to Dallas, of sitting next to the wife of Senator Frist. I was not planning to comment on this book, but because the marital relationship is mentioned above, and because I love non-fiction books deeply, I just want to say that the author is a real person, a personable person, and this book should be bought on its merits.

It does not cover the negative father-daughter relationships, only the positive ones. If you are a father with daughters, buy this book for its example of what worked, what left lasting love in the hearts of daddy's daughters. The family, not the party, is the foundation of this Nation's greatness (and its current decline in broken and non-nuclear families in name only}, so I regard this book as one of the building blocks for getting us back on track.

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Review DVD: The Snow Walker (2003)

6 Star Top 10%, Consciousness & Social IQ, Reviews (DVD Only), Survival & Sustainment, Values, Ethics, Sustainable Evolution

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Serious Film on Limits of Technology, Vitality of Earth Knowledge,

September 2, 2006
Barry Pepper
8 of 8 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars Serious Film on Limits of Technology, Vitality of Earth Knowledge, September 2, 2006
I was completely absorbed by this movie, which features a bush pilot (top of the food chain) and a sick Eskimo girl (bottom of the food chain) brought together when he agrees to transport her to a hospital in return for two ivory tusks.

The the plane crashes and his change of course was not reported. They are down in the middle of a vast tundra with no hope of being found, and their positions are reversed. The movie plays this out slowly and capably, but it becomes clear within the next 30 minutes that he will live or die because of her Earth knowledge, and everything he knows about flying, technology, and the “other world” is useless.

This is not so much a love story but rather a story about the enduring value of humanity, and of human respect for and knowledge of the Earth. The ending is spectacular, I will not spoil it by revealing it here. Totally uplifting and definitely provokes reflection. One of my favorite “serious” movies.

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Review DVD: The Believer (2001)

Reviews (DVD Only), Values, Ethics, Sustainable Evolution

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Worth Watching, and That Is High Praise,

August 18, 2006
Henry Bean
Although not what I expected, this movie was worth watching. It contrasts the search for beliefs and faiths between Jewish students and Skin-head thugs. As we face the conflict between radical Islamic belief systems and Western belief systems, this movie serves as a useful provocation to reflection.
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Review: The Wealth of Networks–How Social Production Transforms Markets and Freedom (Hardcover)

6 Star Top 10%, Best Practices in Management, Capitalism (Good & Bad), Change & Innovation, Culture, Research, Intelligence (Collective & Quantum), Intelligence (Public), Intelligence (Wealth of Networks), Values, Ethics, Sustainable Evolution

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Manifesto for the 21st Century of Informed Prosperous Democracy,

August 9, 2006
Yochai Benkler
Edit of 14 Apr 08 to add links (feature not available at the time).

Lawrence Lessig could not say enough good things about this book when he spoke at Wikimania 2006 in Boston last week, so I ordered it while listening to him. It arrived today and I dropped everything to go through it.

This book could well be the manifesto for 21st Century of Informed Prosperous Democracy. It is a meticulous erudite discussion of why information should not be treated as property, and why the “last mile” should be built by the neighborhood as a commons, “I'll carry your bits if you carry mine.”

The bottom line of this book, and I will cite some other books briefly, is that democracy and prosperity are both enhanced by shared rather than restricted information. The open commons model is the only one that allows us to harness the distributed intelligence of the Whole Earth, where each individual can made incremental improvements that cascade without restraint to the benefit of all others.

As I write this, both the publishing and software industries are in the midst of a “last ditch” defense of copyright and proprietary software. I believe they are destined to fail, and IBM stands out as an innovative company that sees the writing on the wall–see especially IBM's leadership in developing “Services Science.”

The author has written the authoritative analytic account of the new social and political and financial realities of a networked world with information embedded goods. There have been earlier accounts–for example, the cover story of Business Week on “The Power of Us” with its many accounts of how Lego, for example, received 1,600 free engineering development hours from its engaged customers of all ages. Thomas Stewart's “The Wealth of Knowledge,” Barry Carter's “Infinite Wealth,” Alvin and Heidi Toffler's most recent “Revolutionary Wealth,” all come to the same conclusion: you cannot manage 21st Century information-rich networks with 20th Century industrial control models.

Lawrence Lessig says it best when he speaks of the old world as “Read Only” and the new world as “Read-Write” or interactive. His fulsome praise for this author and this book suggest that the era of sharing and voluntary work has come of age.

On that note, I wish to observe that those who label the volunteers who craft Wikis including the Wikipedia as “suckers” are completely off-base. The volunteers are the smartest of the smart, the vanguard for a new economy in which bartering and sharing displace centralized financial and industrial control. Indeed, with the localization of energy, water, and agriculture, this book by this author could not be more important or timelier.

One final supportive anecdote, this one from the brilliant Michael Eisen, champion of open publishing. He captured the new paradigm perfectly at Wikimania when he likened the current publishing environment as one in which scientists give birth to babies, the publishers play a mid-wifery role, and then claim that as midwives, they have a perpetual right to the babies and will only lease them back to the parents. What a gloriously illuminating analogy this is.

I will end by tying this book and this author to C.K. Prahalad's “The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid.” That other book focuses on the fact that the five billion poor are actually worth four trillion in disposable income, versus the one billion rich worth one trillion. C.K. Prahalad posits a world in which capitalism stops focusing on making disposable high-end high cost goods, and turns instead to making sustainable low-cost goods. I see the day coming when–the avowed goal of the Wiki Foundation–there is universal free access to all information in all languages all the time.

If Marx and his Communist Manifesto were the tipping point for communism, this book is the tipping point for communal moral capitalism. Yochai Benkler is–along with Stewart Brand, Howard Rheingold, Bruce Sterling, Kevin Kelly, Lawrence Lessig, Jimbo Wales, Ward Cunningham, Brewster Kahle, and Cass Sunstein, one of the bright shining lights in our constellation of change makers.

He ends his book on an optimistic note. Despite the craven collaboration of the U.S. Congress in extending copyright forever into the distant future, he posits a reversal of all these bad laws (it used to be legal to discriminate against women and people of color) by the combination of cultural, social, economic, and technical forces that have their own imperative. Would that it were so, sooner.

See also:
Infotopia: How Many Minds Produce Knowledge
Infinite Wealth: A New World of Collaboration and Abundance in the Knowledge Era
Revolutionary Wealth: How it will be created and how it will change our lives
The Wealth of Knowledge: Intellectual Capital and the Twenty-first Century Organization
Powershift: Knowledge, Wealth, and Power at the Edge of the 21st Century
The New Craft of Intelligence: Personal, Public, & Political–Citizen's Action Handbook for Fighting Terrorism, Genocide, Disease, Toxic Bombs, & Corruption
Information Operations: All Information, All Languages, All the Time
Peacekeeping Intelligence: Emerging Concepts for the Future
THE SMART NATION ACT: Public Intelligence in the Public Interest
Collective Intelligence: Creating a Prosperous World at Peace

I beg indulgence for listing five books I have published. I know you all know about Smart Mobs, Wisdom of the Crowds, Army of Davids, etc. See also the literature resilience, panarchy, and social entrepreneurship.

Peace (and prosperity) for all, in our time.

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