Worth a Look: Sources & Methods (Kristan Wheaton)

Analysis, Methods & Process, Worth A Look

Sources And Methods

Whatever happens to cross my desk or mind on teaching, intelligence or teaching intelligence

Phi Beta Iota: Kristan Wheaton, now with Bob Heibel at Mercyhurst where they have developed the Mercyhurst Institute for Intelligence Studies (MIIS), the first such program in the entire USA, now a model for many others, is also the author of the seminal work, Early Warning–Using Competitive Intelligence to Anticipate Market Shifts, Control Risk, and Create Powerful Strategies.  You can subscribe to the blog above, or do as we do, follow his postings as Kristan Wheaton at LinkedIn where we welcome direct connections from anyone following this Public Intelligence Blog.

Who’s Who in Peace Intelligence: Kristan Wheaton

Alpha V-Z, Peace Intelligence
Kristan Wheaton
Kristan Wheaton

Amazon Page
Amazon Page

Kristan Wheaton is the author of The Warning Solution: Intelligent Analysis in the Age of Information Overload (Falls Church, VA: AFCEA International Press, 2001) and is currently busy working on his next book, Failed States: How to Predict Them, How to Prevent Them. He is also a Foreign Area Officer for the US Army who  served as an attaché in the Office of the Legal Counselor, US Embassy, The Hague, where he works with the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia on war crimes issues. He has served as the Chief of the Office of Defense Cooperation at the US Embassy in Zagreb, Croatia, as the Chief of European Analysis in the Intelligence Directorate of the US European Command, as a US Defense Liaison Officer to the Republic of Macedonia and as a Special Assistant for Intelligence to the Commander of Multinational Division North in Bosnia. His recent publications include ‘Combat by Tria’ in Proceedings, (September 2001), and ‘Evolution, Ethnicity and Propaganda: Why Negotiating with the Innocent Makes Sense’ in Evolutionary Theory and Ethnic Conflict (August 2001).  Click on the photograph to reach his current biographic page at Mercyhurst College.

Modeling and Simulation Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: New Analytic Techniques for Peacekeeping


Threat Archives on Public Intelligence (1992-2006)

Threats

2004

NO

ThreatBjorgoRoot Causes of Terrorism

2004

US

ThreatKaplanThe Saudi Connection to Terrorism

2004

US

ThreatKnappAl Qaeda and the Mass Media (PSYOP Briefing)

2004

US

ThreatKnappAl Qaeda and the Mass Media (Reference)

2004

US

ThreatKnappDistortion in Islam and Jihad

2004

US

ThreatKnappDiversity in Islam

2006

US

ThreatDalyAl Qaeda Against Saudi Oil

2006

US

ThreatJohnsonBattle of Algiers and Its Lessons

2006

US

ThreatSeagravesGold Warriors: New Epilogue, Further of US Theft of WWII Gold Loot

2006

US

ThreatSeagravesGold Warriors New Chapter Seventeen

2006

US

ThreatSteeleWho Is to Blamce?  The Vice President and Us

2006

US

ThreatSternAl Qaeda Approach to US Muslims

2006

UK

ThreatStoryCrunch Time for CIA, Banks, and Related Thieves of $742 Trillion

2005

US

ThreatEllisScenarios for Next Generation Crises in Latin America

2005

US

ThreatGAOGAO Report: US Not Addressing Islamic Fundamentalism

2005

US

ThreatOSSSomalia Piracy Quick Report

2005

US

ThreatOSSReport on Remote Detonation of Improvised Explosive Devices

2005

US

ThreatOSSPRC Trade in Latin America

2005

US

ThreatRay & GrossThe Perfect Storm

2005

US

ThreatSteeleWorksheet for Book Review on Crossing the Rubicon

2005

US

ThreatSteeleMother Nature as Terrorist

2005

US

ThreatSteele9-11: Who’s To Blame?  One Man’s Opinion

2005

US

ThreatThompsonIs the Terrorism Threat Over-Rated?

2004

US

ThreatDalyGlobalization & National Defense (Ecological Economics)

2004

US

ThreatLouisianaPre-Hurricane Katrina Study and Conclusions

2004

US

ThreatPalmerThe Real Axis of Evil: 44 Dictators

2004

US

ThreatPetersEarly Warning of Disease From Pattern Analysis

2004

US

ThreatSeagraveTranscript of Video on Stolen Gold Held by US Treasury & Citi-Bank

2004

US

ThreatVlahosAttachment to the Muslim Renovatio Memorandum

2004

US

ThreatVlahosThe Muslim Renovatio and U.S. Strategy

2004

US

ThreatVlahosThe Muslims Are Coming

2004

US

ThreatVlahosInsurgency Within Islam

2003

US

ThreatDanzipCountering Traumatic Attacks

2003

PRC

ThreatOSSPRC Treaty & Trade Penetration of Latin America

2002

US

ThreatEmerson & SteeleAmerican Jihad Map

2002

US

ThreatSteeleACFR, 19 Cities: 9-11, U.S. Intelligence, & the Real World

2000

US

ThreatSteeleGeorgetown/AWC: Non-Traditional Threats

1998

US

ThreatSteeleTAKEDOWN: Targets, Tools, & Technocracy

1994

US

ThreatSteele6th National Threat Symposium: New Directions in Information Sharing

2005

NGO

ThreatNGOChanging Face of Global Violence

2005

NGO

ThreatNGOHuman Security Audit

2004

US

ThreatPeltonRobert Young Pelton on Dangerous World

2004

US

ThreatSteeleThree Book Review Relevant to Global War on Terror (GWOT)

2003

US

ThreatCopelandAnalysis of the New Paradigm for Terrorism

2003

US

ThreatManwaringStreet Gangs: New Urban Insurgency

2003

US

ThreatManwaringWar & Conflict: Six Generations

2003

US

ThreatPeltonSummary of Presentation on World’s Most Dangerous Places

2002

US

ThreatBettsThe Next Intelligence Failure: The Limits of Prevention

2002

NL

ThreatJongmanWorld Conflict and Human Rights Map 2001-2002

2002

US

ThreatWheatonTransitions from Authoritarian Rule: A Model

2002

US

ThreatWheatonVirtual Afghanistan: Modeling a Transition from Authoritarian Rule

2001

US

ThreatGodsonGovernments and Gangs

2001

US

ThreatHeidenrichEarly Warning & Complex Monitoring of Ethnic Genocide (Slides)

2001

US

ThreatHeidenrichEarly Warning & Complex Monitoring of Ethnic Genocide (Text)

1998

US

ThreatTransnational Enemies: Threats Without Names

1998

US

ThreatGlaebusMetaphors & Modern Threats: Biological, Computer, Cognitive Viruses

1997

US

ThreatFialkaWar by Other Means: Economic Espionage In (Against) America

1997

US

ThreatSchwartauInformation Warfare: The Weapons of the Information Age

1997

US

ThreatTenneyCyber-Law and Cyber-Crime: Spamming Methods and Costs

1996

US

ThreatKeuhlSchool of Information Warfare Threat and Strategy: Shifting Paradigms

1996

US

ThreatO’MalleyCountering the Business Intelligence Threat

1996

US

ThreatStrassmannU.S. Knowledge Assets: The Choice Target for Information Crime

1996

US

ThreatWinklerElectronic Industrial Espionage: Defining Ground Zero

1994

US

ThreatWhitney-SmithRefugees: Weapon of the Post Cold War World–Counter Offensive: IW

2002 Wheaton (US) Transitions From Authoritarian Rule: An Iterative Model

Government, Historic Contributions, Methods & Process

2002 Wheaton AuthoritarianKristan Wheaton, the Army field grade officer who predicted the Balkan meltdown years in advance but could not get command attention (he subsequently wrote a book,The Warning Solution : Intelligent Analysis in the Age of Information Overload that needs to be updated and reprinted.  The bottom line: policymakers are dealing with $50 billion problems “right now” and the intellgence profession has not matured to the point that it can compell attention to $1 billion “peaceful preventive measures” as General Al Gray, USMC, called them in his article, “Global Intelligence Challenges in the 1990’s,” American Intelligence Journal (winter 1989-1990).

The OTHER big problem that the U.S. Government has, apart from the corruption of Congress and the two-party political systems that services special intersts at the expense of the public interest, is the casual acceptance by the U.S. Government of authoritarian regimes.  Indeed, of 44 dictatorships on the planet, all but two (North Korea and Cuba) are “best pals” with the U.S. Government because they all support rendition and torture and being “tough on terrorism” in return for liberal unaccountable funds from the U.S. taxpayer.

Achieving a prosperous world at peace demands and end to the concentration of wealth by illicit means.  That in turn demands an end to dictatorial governments and a restoration of the rights of indigenous peoples.  It is in that context that this paper matters.

Review: The Warning Solution–Intelligent Analysis in the Age of Information Overload

5 Star, Best Practices in Management, Complexity & Resilience, Country/Regional, Culture, Research, Empire, Sorrows, Hubris, Blowback, Force Structure (Military), Information Operations, Information Society, Insurgency & Revolution, Intelligence (Government/Secret), Intelligence (Public), Peace, Poverty, & Middle Class, Politics, Power (Pathologies & Utilization), Priorities, Secrecy & Politics of Secrecy
Amazon Page

Kristan Wheaton

5.0 out of 5 stars Solving Major Problems Early for 1/50th of the Cost

July 4, 2001

I first heard Kris Wheaton lecture in Europe, and was just blown away by the deep understanding that he demonstrated of why commanders and CEOs are constantly missing the warnings their subordinates and forward scouts are sending back–the huge cost! Kosovo, for example, could have been a $1 billion a year problem if acted upon wisely and early, instead it became a $5 billion a year problem. I like this book very much because it makes his deep insights available to everybody in a very readable, well-illustrated, and concise book.

I strongly recommend this book because it offers the only thoughtful explanation I have ever seen on the conflict between the senior decision-maker’s attention span (can only think about $50 billion problems) and the early warning that *is* available but cannot break through to the always over-burdened, sometimes arrogant, and rarely strategic top boss. In this regard, his book is a fine complement to the more historical work by Willard Matthias on “America’s Strategic Blunders.”

This book also offers solutions. It is a book that should be required reading for all field grade officers in all military services, as well as state and local governors and majors, university and hospital and other non-profit heads, and of course the captains of industry who spend billions, often unwisely, because they have not established a scouting system that can be heard at the highest levels *in time*. America, among many other nations and organizations, has a habit of ignoring its iconoclasts and mavericks–in an increasingly complex world where catastrophic combinations of failure are going to be more common, such ignorance will eventually become unaffordable and threatening to the national security as well as the national prosperity of those who persist in thinking about old problems in old ways.

There is one other aspect of this book that merits strong emphasis: it focuses on human understanding and human engagement with the world, and makes it clear that technology has almost nothing to do with how well we cope with the external environment that defines our future. There aren’t five people in the US government, to take one example, that adequately understand the rich intellectual history of Islam nor the core difference between the Islamic emphasis on knowledge integration as the core value and the Christian emphasis on love as the core value. The author of this book is one of America’s foremost authorities on the Balkan conflict and the deep importance of historical and cultural understanding as part of current political and operational competency–we need 1000 more intelligence professionals just like him. This book will inspire and provoke and is a great value for anyone who deals with the world at large.

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