Category: Peace Intelligence

Phi Beta Iota: The below material is a bit cluttered as it was built up over time as the individual pieces came to light.  The important point in our view is that each element of the dynamic planning model is an intelligence (decision-support) requirement, and the U.S. Intelligence Community is completely unable to address of of them in a tactical near-real-time neighborhood level of granularity such as Dr. Stephen Cambone knew in 2000 we would need.  This is why General Flynn says intelligence is not helping in Afghanistan.  95% of what we need to know to support this planning and operational campaign management model is available for open sources of information–multinational open sources of information.

UPDATE:  Full Text Found

The Hairball that Stabilized Iraq: Modeling FM 3-24 by Brett Pierson, Walter Barge, and Conrad Crane

Phi Beta Iota: These guys were around long before the new handbook came into being, and chances are most of it was drawn from their earlier work.  This is righteous brilliant good stuff, and it is precisely the kind of thinking and leadership process that should go into Whole of Government Planning, Programming, and Budgeting, if we can ever get the Office of Management and Budget back in the business of “managing” to outcome and effect.

UPDATE: A single page of text has come available and the slides are now infamous after media discussion.  Below is the graphic used in the NBC report:

We thought we would add  a couiple of thoughts:

1)  Whole System thinking is long over-due for a renaissance.  We have a government that overseas is all fist and no brain or heart, while at home it is all lips and no brain or heart.

2)  If you think of the world as a three level chessboard, the bottom level is the Earth–natural resources and the specifics of the atmosphere, climate, and so on.  The middle level is the vast public, a power that cannot be suppressed in the long run.  The top level is the Industrial Era menage a plus of governments, corporations, and other institutions, all working on a zero-sum basis, none actually willing to share information or work from a shared Strategic Analytic Model to harmonize spending.

3)  The dynamic planning model, the Navy's global gaming, the DARPA efforts to “simulate” what everyone on the planet is thinking, all are the right idea executed in the wrong way: divorced from reality.  Creating a World Brain Institute with an embedded Global Game that absorbs all true cost information as it becomes available is the fastest possible way to “get a grip” and achieve non-zero infinite wealth.

We're in the process of trying to track down the Army originator of this brief, which is both exquisitely focused and extraordinarily complex.

Below is a first cut–nothing more than an ugly concept for consideration, of what could become a generic approach to assuring our personnel going in harm's way that everything possible has been study to study, understand, and plan for every aspect of what we call Stabilization & Reconstruction Operations, what others call Occupations.