David Brin on Plausibility & Paranoia

Analysis, Cultural Intelligence, Ethics
David Brin

Thursday, May 05, 2011

Seven Rules of Plausibility by Roy Latham

Rule 1. Don’t call the theory ridiculous

Rule 2. Don’t casually accept factual premises that are offered.

Rule 3. Consider the relevance of the expertise of a claimed expert

Rule 4. Consider Claims One-by-One

Rule 5. Keep a Running Tally of the Number of Conspirators

Rule 6. Acknowledge Valid Points

Rule 7. Ask for Direct Evidence of Conspiracy

Read full discussion of all seven rules….

See Also (by David Brin):

Conspiracies and Wishful Thinking (2010/12/06)

WHEN IS A CONSPIRACY THEORY NOT A CONSPIRACY THEORY? (2005)

Paranoia has many roots and levels

As one who nurses a few conspiracy theories of his own — but only ones that fit the Seven Secret Rules of Plausibility 😉 — I actually find most of the run-of-the-mill-kneejerk stories, concocted by modern loonies (not only on the far right, but also plenty on the far-left and even far-out) to be just plain dumb. They are nearly always based on several self-flattering premises:

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Definitions of Fear and Tyranny in Context

Cultural Intelligence, Definitions
DefDog Recommends....

“When even one American – who has done nothing wrong – is forced by fear to shut his mind and close his mouth, then all Americans are in peril. ”  – Harry S. Truman

“Those who desire to give up freedom in order to gain security, will not have, nor do they deserve, either one”  – Thomas Jefferson

“When governments fear the people there is liberty. When the people fear the government there is tyranny.”  – Thomas Jefferson

“The only good is knowledge, the only evil is ignorance.” -Diogenes

See Also:

Joe Bageant Lives — His Light, Our Brains

Joe Bageant Lives — His Light, Our Brains

Cultural Intelligence
John Steiner

Do read through to the end…Joe Bageant died at the end of March, this year.

Joe Bageant recently spoke at Berea College in Berea, Kentucky, Eastern Kentucky University at Lexington, and the Adler School of Professional Psychology in Chicago, where he was invited to speak on American consciousness and what he dubbed “The American Hologram,” in his book, Deer Hunting With Jesus. Here is a text version of the talks, assembled from his remarks at all three schools.

APRIL 03, 2009

Escape from the Zombie Food Court

I just returned from several months in Central America. And the day I returned I had iguana eggs for breakfast, airline pretzels for lunch and a $7 shot of Jack Daniels for dinner at the Houston Airport, where I spent two hours listening to a Christian religious fanatic tell about Obama running a worldwide child porn ring out of the White House. Entering the country shoeless through airport homeland security, holding up my pants because they don't let old men wear suspenders through security, well, I knew I was back home in the land of the free.

Continue reading “Joe Bageant Lives — His Light, Our Brains”

Seth Godin: High School Done Right

04 Education, 11 Society, Academia, Advanced Cyber/IO, Cultural Intelligence, Ethics
Seth Godin Home

What's high school for?

Perhaps we could endeavor to teach our future the following:

  • How to focus intently on a problem until it's solved.
  • The benefit of postponing short-term satisfaction in exchange for long-term success.
  • How to read critically.
  • The power of being able to lead groups of peers without receiving clear delegated authority.
  • An understanding of the extraordinary power of the scientific method, in just about any situation or endeavor.
  • How to persuasively present ideas in multiple forms, especially in writing and before a group.
  • Project management. Self-management and the management of ideas, projects and people.
  • Personal finance. Understanding the truth about money and debt and leverage.
  • An insatiable desire (and the ability) to learn more. Forever.
  • Most of all, the self-reliance that comes from understanding that relentless hard work can be applied to solve problems worth solving.

Call for Nuclear Global Phase Out

Advanced Cyber/IO, Earth Intelligence, Ethics, IO Multinational, IO Sense-Making, Key Players, Policies, Serious Games, Threats

The Right Livelihood Award Foundation

Newsletter April 2011

Call for Global Nuclear Phase Out

In the aftermath of Fukushima, 50 Laureates of the Right Livelihood Award and members of the World Future Council demanded in a joint statement a global nuclear phase out.

“Nuclear power is neither the answer to modern energy problems nor a panacea for climate change challenges. There is no solution of problems by creating more problems,” states the declaration, issued by experts, activists, politicians, clergy, entrepreneurs and scientists from 26 countries.

Click here to read the full statement and to see the list of signees.

For Brazilian-Portuguese, please click here.

A German translation is available here.

Phi Beta Iota: Buckminster Fuller had it right.  Infinite free (renewable) energy is achievable, and the foundation for everything else.  That is what the anthrosphere needs, and that is what would make the anthrosphere naturally self-sustaining [it would also have extraordinary impact on water immediately and waste vaporation over time].

Regional Metamorphosis & Social Architecture

Advanced Cyber/IO, Analysis, Augmented Reality, Budgets & Funding, Civil Society, Collective Intelligence, Collective Intelligence, Commerce, Cultural Intelligence, Earth Intelligence, Ethics, info-graphics/data-visualization, InfoOps (IO), Methods & Process, Open Government, Policies, Serious Games, Standards, Strategy, Technologies, Tools

May 10th: Let the Infinite Games Begin!

svii

At our April 6 SVII gathering Bill Veltrop, co-founder of the Monterey Institute for Social Architecture (MISA), introduced Regional Metamorphosis as a pragmatic strategy for accelerating our movement into an Age of Conscious Evolution. Jesse Clark and colleagues then produced a video that does a great job of capturing the intent and spirit of that evening.

At the conclusion of the April 6 gathering Howard asserted that Silicon Valley had what it takes to be a leader in a regional metamorphosis movement. Howard invited us to explore this possibility together at a May 10th gathering at Serena Software from 4-7 PM.

Questions for you:

  1. Are you a GRIP, a game ready infinite player? Check your “symptoms” against this profile. http://www.theinfinitegames.org/e02/02.php
  1. Does the idea of playing a key role in bootstrapping a Silicon Valley regional metamorphosis initiative intrigue you? Below are some of the key roles we see needed if we are to turn this large idea into a global movement:

TEN MOST WANTED EVOLUTIONARIES

  • Angel Investors
  • Multimedia Story-tellers
  • Transformational Leaders
  • Champions of Generative Initiative
  • Leader for a Center for Regional Metamorphosis
  • Bridge-Builders from Academia
  • Online Collaboration Web Weavers
  • Developmental Mavens
  • Providers of Generative Services
  • Regional Conveners
  1. Are you willing to join with other interested GRIPs at Serena Software from 4-7 on Tuesday, May 10? At this gathering we will be —
  • Getting to know who we are — what each of us cares about, and could bring to this emerging infinite game
  • Diving more deeply into the ideas presented on April 6
  • Exploring for the best approach to getting traction in Silicon Valley — and beyond

Requests

  • If you plan to attend, please register here.
  • Register for May 10th: Let the infinite games begin! in Redwood City, CA  on Eventbrite
  • The address is:
    Serena Software Inc
    1900 Seaport Boulevard,
    Redwood City, CA
  • If you can’t attend but are definitely interested, or if you have any questions, please contact Bill@MISA.ws or call at 831-462-1992
  • If you’ve a friend/colleague GRIP who is a good fit, please invite him/her to join us.
  • If you attended our April 6th gathering, you may find it helpful to refresh your memory with this video, http://vimeo.com/22894801
  • If you were not at the April 6th event it’s important that you invest the time to watch the video. The May 10th gathering will build on our April 6 work together.

Tip of the Hat to David Alan and Mark Roest.

Oil, Food, Middle Class Down = Long Emergency

01 Brazil, 02 China, 03 Economy, 03 India, 04 Indonesia, 05 Energy, 06 Family, 06 Russia, 07 Venezuela, 08 Wild Cards, 11 Society, Civil Society, Commerce, Commercial Intelligence, Corruption, IO Sense-Making
John Robb

D2 SCENARIO

I gave a little talk at a financial conference (Casey Research) that included the following very simple economic scenario:

  • Oil prices are going up (inexorably). China + Peak Oil + Financial diversification. Oil doesn't stop going up until GDP goes down. It's an inexorable force until then.
  • The US middle class is broken.  A hollow husk unable to withstand the slightest gust.  Regardless, it's the ultimate source of demand for the global economy. It's an immovable barrier.
  • When oil hits ~$150 a barrel the impact occurs between inexorable force and immovable barrier. The combo of higher prices at the pump and for everything else (food and other essentials) starts to crush middle class budgets and force defaults.  The economy shrinks until the price of oil goes down enough to be affordable again (for those still left in the middle class).

We keep repeat the pattern above until we're in the second depression (D2).  Long term low demand.

Phi Beta Iota: This is precisely why the BRICS (now including South Africa) and a new coalition, perhaps led by Cuba and Venezuela since Chile is refusing to lead, should focus on the immediate challenge of creating infinite free renewable energy–the foundation for global non-zero advances.  Such a strategy would be inherently ethical, legal, citizen-centered, and non-violent as well as non-intrusive on any conceivable concept of sovereignty or indigenous privilege.

noble gold