Category: Peace Intelligence

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Richard Wright: DoD – A Strategic Hole – A Strategic Farce

Commercial Intelligence, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, IO Deeds of War, Military, Peace Intelligence
Richard Wright

A Strategic Hole – A Strategic Farce

The Public Intelligence Blog (Phi Beta Iota) has carried a number of recent articles all of which had the common theme that the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) is wasting billions of dollars and can easily sustain major cuts in the DOD budget without threatening U.S. National Security. A sub theme of this series has been that DOD’s waste is caused by a deadly combination of corruption, incompetence, and ignorance. I would add a fourth culprit to this trio, the lack of a coherent National Security Strategy.

I would argue that DOD major cuts in its budget should be informed by a national security strategy that realistically assesses who or what DOD needs to defend against. Unfortunately as Pierre M. Sprey noted not too long go on this Blog, the U.S. does not have such a strategy. Currently the DOD and especially the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), in lieu of thinking about the sort of defense the U.S. really needs, continue to try and build a defense that can defend against everything with the result that it defends against nothing and is enormously expensive to build and maintain.

The JCS structure, if it were functional, would be the obvious choice to formulate a rational defense strategy that would then guide them on the type of force structures to build and how to equip it. Sadly the JCS is completely dysfunctional and is driven by the parochial interests of the military services that collectively can only scramble each year to see which service gets the largest share of congressional defense appropriations. Simultaneously, lacking an overall strategy, each individual service is attempting the impossible task of being prepared to provide military action for any contingency, however unlikely, that might arise. As a result the U.S. Military has sacrificed actual readiness in favor of a dubious ability to respond to any contingency.

Essentially, the individual services are working blind trying to buy small quantities of ever more expensive weapons and equipment to have on hand just in case the contingency for which they were designed arises. Thus the U.S. Marine Corps (USMC) was just forced to cancel an out of control program to design and build a new amphibious landing craft although the USMC has not had a real amphibious landing since the Korean War (1950-1953). The U.S. Air Force (USAF) has purchased over 200 F-22 Supersonic fighters to assure air control against what turned out to be a non-existent Soviet (now Russian) fighter. And as it turns out because of design flaws the F-22 is not really a safe aircraft (even though the USAF claims that it is now ok to fly).

Because there is no overall strategy, neither the JCS nor the DOD Civilian Bureaucracy really knows how to deal with threatened substantial cuts in the DOD budget. Indeed the only way to achieve savings so far that has been advanced by these lost souls has been to cut retirement benefits and reduce the cost of living benefits of the enlisted men and women who serve in the armed forces. This is criminal and in any case will achieve only minimal cost reduction. Surely the U.S. can do better than this.

See Also:

Journal: Reflections on Integrity

Journal: Politics & Intelligence–Partners Only When Integrity is Central to Both

 

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WInslow Wheeler: USAF Cost Over-Runs–DoD Micro-Look

03 Economy, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 07 Other Atrocities, 10 Security, 11 Society, Budgets & Funding, Corruption, DoD, Government, IO Deeds of War, Military, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence
Winslow Wheeler

When a system is so slosh with money that it does not know what its costs are, it is time to take serious action.  But what do you do when no one cares?

The US Air Force misreports, even to itself (and to Congress and OSD), the cost to operate and support its own aircraft.  That is the bottom line of my recent attempt to uncover operating and support (O&S) costs for aircraft like the F-22 and the B-2.

It also gets more interesting: the official USAF data that are available show that, despite promises to the contrary, “stealth” aircraft are far, far more expensive to operate than the aging (and expensive to maintain) relics they are to replace.  Moreover, the data that are available are very likely an understatement.  Also, there are some other cost Queens in the USAF inventory; still others are hidden in the missing data.

The amounts of money involved are huge.  Generally, O&S costs for aircraft are twice (very probably more) the cost to acquire them.  For example, OSD predicts the $379 billion F-35 program will cost an additional $916 billion to operate and support.  (However, the O&S number is a low-ball prediction.)

What is happening about this?  Nothing.

These are some of the points in a 3,000 word study piece I recently completed.  The piece, with a one page summary, follows below.  It is also at the CDI website at , and you can also see journalists Colin Clark's take.

The text of the short study and its summary follows:

Continue reading “WInslow Wheeler: USAF Cost Over-Runs–DoD Micro-Look”

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Chuck Spinney: Middle East New Geopolitical Map

02 Diplomacy, 05 Iran, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Justice, 10 Security, 11 Society, Corruption, Counter-Oppression/Counter-Dictatorship Practices, Government, IO Deeds of War, Peace Intelligence
Chuck Spinney

In this very important essay, one of the world's leading authorities on the Middle East explains the tectonic shifts taking place that are clearly leaving the United States and Israel on the wrong side of history.

The Middle East’s New Geopolitical Map

by Patrick Seale

Agence Global, 20 Sep 2011

The Arab Spring is not the only revolution in town. The toppling of dictators in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya; the mounting death toll in Syria and Yemen, where the outcome is still undecided; the revival of long-suppressed Islamic movements demanding a share of power; the struggle by young revolutionaries to re-invent the Arab state — all these dramatic developments have distracted attention from another revolution of equal significance.

It is the challenge being mounted by the region’s heavyweights — Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Iran — against the hegemony which the United States and Israel have sought to exercise over them for more than half a century.

. . . . . . .

America’s most grievous mistake, however — the source of great harm to itself, to Israel, and to peace and stability in the Middle East — has been to tolerate Israel’s continued occupation and dispossession of the Palestinians. These policies have aroused intense hate of Israel in the Arab and Muslim world and great anger at its superpower protector.

We are now witnessing a rebellion against these policies by the region’s heavyweights — in effect a rebellion against American and Israeli hegemony as spectacular as the Arab Spring itself. The message these regional powers are conveying is that the Palestine question can no longer be neglected. Israel’s land grab on the West Bank and its siege of Gaza must be ended. The Palestinians must at last be given a chance to create their own state. Their plight weighs heavily on the conscience of the world.

. . . . . . .

Turkey, Iran and Egypt, heirs to ancient civilizations, are thus asserting themselves against what they see as an Israeli upstart. Saudi Arabia, the region’s oil and financial giant, guardian of Islam’s holiest sites, is breaking free from the constraints of the American alliance.

Israel stands accused. Will it heed the message or shoot the messenger? If true to its past form, it might well try to fight its way out of the box in which it now finds itself, further destabilising the region and attracting to itself further opprobrium.

Read full article.

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Howard Rheingold: 30 Sep to 11 Nov Online & Live Course on Literacy of Cooperation

04 Education, 11 Society, Academia, Advanced Cyber/IO, Blog Wisdom, Civil Society, Collective Intelligence, Cultural Intelligence, Earth Intelligence, Ethics, Gift Intelligence, Hacking, InfoOps (IO), Methods & Process, Non-Governmental, Offbeat Fun, Peace Intelligence
Howard Rheingold

Announcing a new Rheingold U course: Toward a New Literacy of Cooperation

For the past ten years, I've worked with Institute for the Future to track the emergence of a new story about how humans get things done together. The old story of survival of the fittest, competition, rational self-interest is changing as new knowledge comes to light about cooperative arrangements and complex interdependencies in cells, ecosystems, economies, and humans. In 2005, I delivered a TED talk about this subject; the video has been viewed more than 182,000 times. In the same year, I co-taught a seminar at Stanford with Andrea Saveri of Institute for the Future, “Toward a Literacy of Cooperation.” This six week Rheingold U course builds on the texts, videos, and other materials developed over the past ten years. Under my direction, co-learners will inquire, collaborate, discuss, co-construct knowledge about the building blocks and conceptual frames of a new literacy of cooperation. The course will run September 30 – November 11

The syllabus
The schedule of live meetings

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Chuck Spinney: Perspective on Turkey-Israel Relations

02 Diplomacy, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 08 Wild Cards, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, IO Deeds of War, Peace Intelligence
Chuck Spinney

Below is an excellent perspective on Turkish – Israeli relations and the irresponsible Israeli-neocon effort to smear Turkey with the phony charge of islamo-fascisim (itself a logically absurd term). While Hadar thinks, in my view correctly, Ataturk would back Erdogan's policies, one thing he does address is how Ataturk might have reacted to Israel's provocations, especially the murder of Turkish nationals in raid on the Gaza Peace Flotilla, followed by Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman's incredibly stupid threat to give aid to the PKK. Based on my limited knowledge of the man, I think Ataturk's reaction to such ham-fisted tactics would have made Prime Minister Erdogan's reaction look downright lovable.

Chuck Spinney
Carnon Plage, France

Turkish Foreign Policy: What Would Ataturk Do?

Leon T. Hadar

Huffington Post, 9/16/11

Even before the crisis in the relationship between Israel and Turkey over the raid on the Gaza “Peace Flotilla” had erupted last December, right-wing Israelis and American neoconservatives were promoting a new Grand Narrative: Turkey was joining forces with Iran and Syria in an anti-American and anti-Israeli Islamofascist Axis of Evil, seeking to destroy the Jewish State as part of a long-term strategy of re-establishing the Ottoman Empire and a Global Caliphate. Turkey was becoming the New Iran.

Read more…

Phi Beta Iota:  The “narrative” that both the USG and Israel keep trying to float is totally divorced from reality and also unconstitutional in two ways: fostering foreign wars without cause, and pointing covert action (media influence) as the US public using US taxpayer funds.

See Also:

Cynthia McKinney: Wes Clark on US Foreign Policy Coup

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Cynthia McKinney: Wes Clark on US Foreign Policy Coup

04 Inter-State Conflict, 07 Other Atrocities, 10 Security, Corruption, DoD, Government, IO Deeds of War, Military, Peace Intelligence
Cynthia McKinney

A remarkable talk by Wesley Clark–4-Star General in the U.S. military:  he reveals his reaction to informaton that the U.S.was going to attack and destroy the governments in 7 countries in 5 years–Iraq, Syria,Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Iran. He goes on to say, “These people [from the Project for a New American Century] took control of the policy of the United States” and recalls a 1991 meeting he had with Paul Wolfowitz who at that time held the number three position at the Pentagon.  Pay close attention to what Wolfowitz told him.  This talk by Wesley Clark made my jaw drop.

Former 4-star U.S General admits to America Foreign Policy Coup

Uploaded by on Sep 2, 2011

8 minutes 14 seconds

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Chuck Spinney: Economic Costs of Warmongering

03 Economy, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 07 Other Atrocities, 09 Justice, 10 Security, 11 Society, Commerce, Commercial Intelligence, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, DoD, Government, IO Deeds of War, Military, Peace Intelligence
Chuck Spinney

Below is a dynamite op-ed on the cost of the so-called war on terror by Linda Bilmes and Joseph Stiglitz.  Without being critical, I think at least two additional aspects to these costs make the picture even worse than they say.

1. Some people in this [let them eat] cake walk became — and are still becoming — filthy rich spending other people's money and spilling other people's blood — the acknowledgement of which takes one into the murky question of what moral values are shaping this political-economic meltdown.

2. While not directly caused by the war on terror, the ramping up of defense expenditures magnified the the rate of distorting spillovers (the Melman* effects) that the MICC's politicization of R&D and manufacturing have on diminishing America's overall commercial manufacturing efficiency and industrial competitiveness. The costs may be incalculable, but that does not make them less real.

* Professor Seymour Melman of Columbia University documented these effects in his voluminous writings, two of his most important books being The Permanent War Economy and Profits Without Production.

Los Angeles Times, September 18, 2011

America's Costly War Machine

Fighting the war on terror compromises the economy now and threatens it in the future.

 

By Linda J. Bilmes and Joseph E. Stiglitz

Ten years into the war on terror, the U.S. has largely succeeded in its attempts to destabilize Al Qaeda and eliminate its leaders. But the cost has been enormous, and our decisions about how to finance it have profoundly damaged the U.S. economy.

Many of these costs were unnecessary. We chose to fight in Iraq and Afghanistan with a small, all-volunteer force, and we supplemented the military presence with a heavy reliance on civilian contractors. These decisions not only placed enormous strain on the troops but dramatically pushed up costs. Recent congressional investigations have shown that roughly 1 of every 4 dollars spent on wartime contracting was wasted or misspent.

Read full article.

Phi Beta Iota:  We judge defense to be 75% fraud, waste, and abuse (3 out of 4 dollars, not 1 out of four).  The infantry is 4% of the force, suffers 80% of the casualties, and receives 1% of the budget.  Our starting position is that 20% of the Pentagon budget can be justified in conference, everything else is on  the table for draconian cuts toward a balanced budget.  Agriculture, energy, and health are documented at 50% waste–the Pentagon is much less relevant to the society and the economy than those three, ergo we speculate that defense is half again as wasteful as these other core sectors.

See Also:

Continue reading “Chuck Spinney: Economic Costs of Warmongering”