Journal: Turkey’s Emerging Grand Strategy

02 Diplomacy, 08 Wild Cards, Civil Society, Cultural Intelligence, Government, IO Multinational, IO Sense-Making, Peace Intelligence
Chuck Spinney Recommends

This op-ed is consistent with what I have learned about and experienced in Turkey.  Chuck

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October 25, 2010

Turkey Steps Out

By ROGER COHEN

ANKARA — Davutogluism is a mouthful. It’s not going to make Fox News any time soon. But if I could escort Sarah Palin, Tea Partiers and a few bigoted anti-Muslim Europeans to a single country illustrating how the world has changed, it would be the home of the D-word, Turkey.

Ahmet Davutoglu, who birthed a foreign policy doctrine and has been Turkey’s foreign minister since May 2009, has irked a lot of Americans. He’s seen as the man behind Turkey’s “turning East,” as Iran’s friend, as Israel’s foe, as a fickle NATO ally wary of a proposed new missile shield, and as the wily architect of Turkey’s new darling status with Arab states. The Obama administration has said it is “disappointed” in Turkey’s no vote on Iran sanctions last June; Congress is not pleased, holding up an ambassadorial appointment and huffing over arms sales.

Nostalgia is running high in Washington for the pliant Turkey of Cold-War days. Davutoglu is having none of it. “We don’t want to be a frontier country like in the Cold War,” he told me. “We don’t want problems with any neighbor” — and that, of course, would include Iran.

Zero problems with neighbors lay at the core of Davutoglu’s influential book Strategic Depth, published in 2001. Annual trade with Russia has since soared to $40 billion. Syrian-Turkish relations have never been better. Turkey’s commercial sway over northern Iraq is overwhelming. It has signed a free trade agreement with Jordan. And now Turkey says it aims — United Nations sanctions notwithstanding — to triple trade with Iran over the next five years.

All this makes the anemic West edgy: The policy has produced 7 percent growth this year. There’s also something deeper at work: The idea of economic interdependence as a basis for regional peace and stability sounds awfully familiar. Wasn’t that the genius of the European Union idea?

Read rest of this very serious article….

Phi Beta Iota: The author produced Alternative Paradigms in 1993, this book is available in English. At the time he was  Professor of Political Science at the International Islamic University in Malaysia.  Turkey is a world power, as is Iran, anyone who cannot get a grip on that reality will be flattened by reality.  The axis between Malaysia and Indonesia, and between Muslims in Asia and Muslims centered on Dubai, is going to strengthen.

Ahmet Davutoglu
Ahmet Davutoglu Strategic Depth

2010 Reference: The Pentagon, Information Operations, and Media Development

02 Diplomacy, 10 Security, Cultural Intelligence, InfoOps (IO), IO Multinational, IO Secrets, Media, Media Reports, Military, Peace Intelligence, White Papers
Report Online

CIMA is pleased to release a new report, The Pentagon, Information Operations, and Media Development, by Peter Cary, a veteran journalist with extensive experience reporting about the U.S. military. As part of its post-9/11 strategy, the Department of Defense has launched a multi-front information war, both to support its troops on the ground and to counter the propaganda of radical Muslim extremists. The DoD’s global public relations war, however, has fostered criticism that the department has over-reached and tarred the efforts of non-DoD Americans doing media development work abroad.

While the DoD cannot be criticized for trying to protect the lives of its soldiers, it has spent vast amounts of money on media operations–which can tend to be conducted in secrecy and whose effectiveness often cannot be measured. This report examines the impact of DoD information operations on international media development efforts and offers recommendations – including that the DoD leave media activities that could be considered public diplomacy to the State Department.

Tip of the Hat to Niels Groeneveld at LinkedIn.

America’s Next War: Southwest Border–Both Sides

03 Economy, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Immigration, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Justice, 10 Security, 10 Transnational Crime, 11 Society, Government, Law Enforcement, Peace Intelligence

Phi Beta Iota: Most of the weapons being used by the cartels do NOT come from US gun shops.  They come from the Latin American militaries who have received large shipments of “older” weapons and ammunition from the US, and then turned around and sold them to the cartels.  Just as the US is indirectly funding the Taliban in Afghanistan, it is indirectly enabling the cartels with weapons.  Furthermore, to imagine that with the money they have the cartels cannot “order in” anything they wish from the Chinese, Israeli, or Russian arsenals, is naive in the extreme.  As many or more are dying violent deaths every day in this region as in Iraq or Afghanistan.  In our view, the current era of politicians (1981-date) is going to be held accountable for four major strategic blunders, all of them deliberate:

1.  Elective invasions and occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq on top of irresponsible military cuts and acquisition pathologies

2.  Willful acceptance from Bush Senior onwards of the willful destruction of the US economy for the benefit of a few led by Goldman Sachs, Citi-Bank, and Morgan

3.  Ignoring the depth and extent of the Southwest Border instability and threat to local communities

4.  Ignoring the imminent clean water crisis across the entire region as well as across America

On The Southwest Border (Photo Essay) (Latin America News Dispatch)

Posted by Molly OToole on Sep 15th, 2010

These photographs were taken on an 852-mile, 72-hour trip across the Southwest border, from San Diego, California to Arizona and back. Many citizens from the United States and Mexico have never seen the line that divides and defines their countries, marked by walls, barbed wire fences, U.S. Border Patrol checks and, increasingly, controversy.

2010 National Drug Threat Assessment: Southwest Border Smuggling and Violence

GAO: Border fence lagging, over budget, Home Security mismanaged project, report says (Washington Times, 24 October 2010)

Napolitano visits San Diego, says border is more secure from cartels (Los Angeles Times,October 18, 2010)

Time for U.S. to get serious about cartel threat (MySanAntonio, 16 October 2010)

Cartel Threat Grows, Illegal Numbers Drop (Homeland Security Today, 6 October 2010)

Pirate Lake: Mexican Bandits Terrorizing American Boaters on the Border (FOX.News, 4 October 2010)

Governor Perry Releases Statement on Border Violence (KRGV.com Texas, 2 October 2010)

SECURE BORDER INITIATIVE DHS Needs to Address Testing and Performance Limitations That Place Key Technology Program at Risk (GAO-10-158 January 2010)

Secure Border Initiative: SBInet Expenditure Plan Needs to Better Support Oversight and Accountability (GAO-07-309 February 15, 2007)

See Also:

Continue reading “America's Next War: Southwest Border–Both Sides”

Journal: Military Pay and Benefits–Three Solutions

03 Economy, 10 Security, 11 Society, Civil Society, Collective Intelligence, Commercial Intelligence, Corruption, Military, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence

Marcus Aurelius Recommends

As I See It — Fighting the Budget Shrug

2010/10/15

By Col. Steve Strobridge, USAF-Ret.

A recent article in Christian Science Monitor on military health care costs identified, in microcosm, the battle we face in the coming years in defending the military community’s sunk investment in its future.

Full Story Online

After citing all DoD’s arguments that it’s being “eaten alive” by “unsustainable” military health care cost increases, the reporter had the courtesy of quoting me on the other side of the argument:

“’There’s a fundamental difference between social insurance programs open to every American and military benefits earned by decades of service and sacrifice,’ said Steve Strobridge, director of Governmental Relations for MOAA.

“What Mr. Strobridge raises here is a moral issue: Should the military be treated differently than nonmilitary America when it comes to pay and benefits? The armed forces put their lives, limbs, and mental health on the line for the safety of the country, or they potentially do. On a practical level, you need strong benefits to recruit and maintain a strong, all-volunteer military.”

And then came this kicker:

“But here’s another moral angle: Sacrifice goes with the territory of being in the armed services, and the military budget needs serious cutting. Should sacrifice not also extend to the defense of the nation’s financial health if it’s in critical danger?”

And there’s the problem. Sacrifices already endured are assigned no value. It’s the budget shrug: “They volunteered, didn’t they?”

Every 15 years or so, that indifference leads to cuts that eventually wreck retention — and then national leaders have to pull out all the stops and spend even more to solve the military manpower crisis they refused to prevent.

The real issue is, “How much is it worth for the country to be able to defend itself?”

Read rest of story….

Phi Beta Iota: With all due respect to MOAA, the real issue is NOT “what price defense” but rather “how best to defend.”  There are three simple solutions to the military and and benefits problem that do NOT require reductions:

1.  Restore the universal draft including immigrants and including a mid-career “sabatical” between military and private sector.  This bonds the nation–one boot camp, three choices: Armed Forces, Peace Corps, Homeland Service.

2.  Establish Constitutional honest government tht does not lead the Republic into elective wars for ideological and private reasons on the basis of (most recently) 935 documented lies.  The same honest government can be expected to end the acquisition of things we do not need (e.g. missile defense in Poland, J-22, new nuclear submarine) at costs we cannot afford.

3.  End the fiction that future Medicare costs re unfunded.  They are only unfunded because a corrupt Congress in cahoots with a corrupt Administration (both parties) has forbidden price negotiation.  The minute we restore honest government current and future Medicare costs come down to 1% (ONE percent) of what we pay now.

Thomas Jefferson:  A Nation's best defense is an educated citizenry.

Russell Ackoff:  Stop trying to do the wrong things righter; do the right things.

Robert Steele:  The truth at any cost reduces all other costs.

2010 Julian Harston “Intelligence Assessment and Risk Analysis in Peacekeeping and Peace Support Operations – A Necessity”

Advanced Cyber/IO, Ethics, Non-Governmental, Peace Intelligence, United Nations & NGOs

Intelligence Assessment and Risk Analysis in Peacekeeping and Peace Support Operations – A necessity.

Julian Harston, United Nations, Assistant Secretary General (rtd)

October 2010

Document:  2010 JMAC Speech Julian Harston

‘We are fully aware of your long-standing limitations in gathering information. The limitations are inherent in the very nature of the United Nations and therefore of any operation conducted by it.’

UN Secretary-General U Thant to the Commander of the UN Operation in the Congo (UNOC), Lt-Gen. Kebbede Guebre, in a coded cable on 24 September 1962.

“Through error, misjudgment and an inability to recognize the scope of the evil confronting us, we failed to do our part to save the people of Srebrenica from mass murder.”

Kofi Annan

Continue reading “2010 Julian Harston “Intelligence Assessment and Risk Analysis in Peacekeeping and Peace Support Operations – A Necessity””

Journal: Is Israel’s Infamy Obama’s Third Strike?

02 Diplomacy, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Justice, 10 Security, 11 Society, 12 Water, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence
Chuck Spinney Sounds Off...

Pusillanimity or Hypocrisy or Both

Memo to Obama: Three Strikes and You're Out

By FRANKLIN C. SPINNEY

Counterpunch

I believe Obama's schtick during his campaign for president was to subtly encourage his adversaries to impale themselves of the horns of their own contradictions.  This kind of strategy can be particularly effective in the all-important moral dimension of an election, or indeed, any other kind of conflict. To be sure, Obama had the help of widespread disgust with Bush, as well as an exquisitely timed, terrible financial meltdown, but the parallels in his campaigns against Hillary Clinton and John McCain suggest he had an instinctive feel for gaining leverage by using what reformers in the Pentagon called the Motherhood and Mismatch, or M&M, strategy. (See my CounterPunch essay on that theme.) But to date, his strategy for governance has failed utterly to live up to that brilliance.  He blew at least two stunning opportunities that seemed designed in heaven for a decisive M&M strategy.  He capitulated to a morally bankrupt establishment by bailing out the banksters and then caving in to the insurance companies on health care reform.

Obama now has a third opportunity, and like his campaigns against Clinton and McCain, it is partly the result of his own making, be it accidental or deliberate.  As Ira Chernus shows in a persuasively argued 19 October essay, Israel's hypocrisy in the so-called peace process has reached stunning proportions.  The Palestinians are going out of their way to accommodate Israel in the so-called peace talks, but each time the Palestinians sell out their patrimony by caving in to a new Israeli demand — like recognizing Israel as a Jewish state as opposed to recognition of Israel per se, the Israelis up the ante by inserting poison pills aimed at queering any deal — like saying that settlement expansion in East Jerusalem will not be part of a settlement freeze because East Jerusalem is a part of Israel, a claim not recognized by international law, the United States, or Europe, and then acting as if Israel is the injured party.

Read balance of article….

Journal: US as Dishonest Broker in Middle East

08 Wild Cards, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Peace Intelligence
Chuck Spinney Recommends...
The author is Jewish, an Israeli of Iraqi descent.

US: The dishonest broker

Despite high expectation for Barack Obama, the US president has not convinced Israel to cease settlement construction.

Avi Shlaim, Al Jazeera, 21 Oct 2010 12:46 GMT

Avi Shlaim is a professor of international relations at the University of Oxford and the author of Israel and Palestine: Reappraisals, Revisions, Refutations (Verso, 2009). This article first appeared on the University of Oxford, Department of Politics and International Relations Blog

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been both a major concern of American diplomacy since 1967 and the arena of persistent failure.

There are many reasons for America’s failure to broker a peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians but the most fundamental one is that it is a dishonest broker. As a result of its palpable partiality towards Israel, America has lost all credibility in the eyes not only of the Palestinians but of the wider Arab and Muslim worlds.

The so-called peace process has been all process and no peace. Peace talks that go nowhere slowly provide Israel with just the cover it needs to pursue its expansionist agenda on the West Bank.

Read rest of article….