NIGHTWATCH Extract: US, Venezuela, Libya…

02 Diplomacy, 03 Economy, 04 Education, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 07 Other Atrocities, 07 Venezuela, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Justice, 10 Security, 11 Society, Civil Society, Commerce, Commercial Intelligence, Cultural Intelligence, Earth Intelligence, Government, Law Enforcement, Military, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence

Venezuela- US: For the record. The Caracas government seized two factories owned by U.S.-based glass maker Owens Illinois, because it caused “environmental damage and exploited workers,” Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said on 25 October. Today Venezuelan soldiers took possession of the factories.

Venezuela-Middle East: President Chavez said his government and Libya are creating a $1 billion joint investment fund to pay for projects the two countries will pursue together, according to a report by The Associated Press. Chavez also announced a $100 million joint fund with Syria, which will be used on projects such as aid in the construction of an oil refinery and to establish an olive oil processing plant.

NIGHTWATCH Comment: Chavez invariably goes out of his way to make questionable deals with countries that tend to have strained relations with the US. None of his new allies are in a position to help Venezuela in the event of trouble, which calls into question the wisdom of the investments, the utility of the associations and the soundness of Chavez' judgment.

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Phi Beta Iota: We beg to differ with our esteemed colleague.  The US is so over-extended in its elective wars and occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq as to call into question its ability to be effective anywhere else, including against Somali pirates.  Furthermore, the passing of time and the accumulation of public knowledge has a “truth” effect that may not lead to reconciliation but will lead to more and more expropriation of ill-gotten gains by predatory capitalists who in the past were able to call in the US Marines to enforce unethical, illegal, and unjust seizures of property.  Just as Australia is now getting serious about Native Title, so also is the rest of the Southern Hemisphere going to get serious about expropriating back into indigenous possession those lands acquired through illicit or unethical means.

The next President, and the next Director of National Intelligence (DNI), are going to have to lead a 180 degree change in how the US “does” intelligence.  Instead of producing 4% “at best,” the DNI is going to have to lead the integration of education, intelligence, and research so as to meet 96% “at worst” of the needs of the Nation in both restoring domestic prosperity and in achieving truth & reconciliation abroad.  Absent such a redirection, the US will not survive in its present form to 2025…in our always humble opinion.  This will require leaders with integrity who place the public interest foremost.

See Also:

Review: The Naked Capitalist

Review: War is a Racket–The Antiwar Classic by America’s Most Decorated Soldier

Review: Open Veins of Latin America–Five Centuries of the Pillage of a Continent

Review: SAVAGE CAPITALISM AND THE MYTH OF DEMOCRACY–Latin America in the Third Millennium

Review: Killing Hope–U.S. Military and C.I.A. Interventions Since World War II-Updated Through 2003

Review: Overthrow–America’s Century of Regime Change from Hawaii to Iraq (Hardcover)

NIGHTWATCH Extract: Mexican Cartels Threaten Massacres

07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 10 Transnational Crime, Government, Law Enforcement, Military, Officers Call

Mexico: For the record. Suspected members of the Sinaloa drug trafficking cartel warned that they would kill 135 people after security forces seized 134 tons of marijuana last week in Tijuana, Baja California state, Milenio reported today, 25 October. The warning was made over a police radio frequency late on 24 October reportedly minutes after gunmen killed 13 patients at a drug rehabilitation center in Tijuana.

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Phi Beta Iota: This kind of indiscriminate mass murder in retaliation for what are relatively minor interdictions suggests that on the one hand, both the US and Mexican government have not only lost all control of the territory for which they are responsible for providing good order and public safety and security; but also that neither government has an effective intelligence capability to guide operations in detail.  We are reminded of how long it took to hunt down one man in Colombia, Pablo Escobar.   A MAJOR obstacle is the recalcitrance of the US secret intelligence community with $75 billion or more being applied to produce “at best” 4% of what is needed, to reinvent itself and engage in M4IS2: multinational, multiagency, multidisciplinary, multidomain information-sharing and sense-making.  The El Paso Intelligence Center (EPIC) is a massive failure precisely because it embodies all of the handicaps of the past and none of the advantages of the present.

See Also:

Review: Killing Pablo–The Hunt for the World’s Greatest Outlaw

2010 Reference: The Pentagon, Information Operations, and Media Development

02 Diplomacy, 10 Security, Cultural Intelligence, InfoOps (IO), IO Multinational, IO Secrets, Media, Media Reports, Military, Peace Intelligence, White Papers
Report Online

CIMA is pleased to release a new report, The Pentagon, Information Operations, and Media Development, by Peter Cary, a veteran journalist with extensive experience reporting about the U.S. military. As part of its post-9/11 strategy, the Department of Defense has launched a multi-front information war, both to support its troops on the ground and to counter the propaganda of radical Muslim extremists. The DoD’s global public relations war, however, has fostered criticism that the department has over-reached and tarred the efforts of non-DoD Americans doing media development work abroad.

While the DoD cannot be criticized for trying to protect the lives of its soldiers, it has spent vast amounts of money on media operations–which can tend to be conducted in secrecy and whose effectiveness often cannot be measured. This report examines the impact of DoD information operations on international media development efforts and offers recommendations – including that the DoD leave media activities that could be considered public diplomacy to the State Department.

Tip of the Hat to Niels Groeneveld at LinkedIn.

Journal: Military Pay and Benefits–Three Solutions

03 Economy, 10 Security, 11 Society, Civil Society, Collective Intelligence, Commercial Intelligence, Corruption, Military, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence

Marcus Aurelius Recommends

As I See It — Fighting the Budget Shrug

2010/10/15

By Col. Steve Strobridge, USAF-Ret.

A recent article in Christian Science Monitor on military health care costs identified, in microcosm, the battle we face in the coming years in defending the military community’s sunk investment in its future.

Full Story Online

After citing all DoD’s arguments that it’s being “eaten alive” by “unsustainable” military health care cost increases, the reporter had the courtesy of quoting me on the other side of the argument:

“’There’s a fundamental difference between social insurance programs open to every American and military benefits earned by decades of service and sacrifice,’ said Steve Strobridge, director of Governmental Relations for MOAA.

“What Mr. Strobridge raises here is a moral issue: Should the military be treated differently than nonmilitary America when it comes to pay and benefits? The armed forces put their lives, limbs, and mental health on the line for the safety of the country, or they potentially do. On a practical level, you need strong benefits to recruit and maintain a strong, all-volunteer military.”

And then came this kicker:

“But here’s another moral angle: Sacrifice goes with the territory of being in the armed services, and the military budget needs serious cutting. Should sacrifice not also extend to the defense of the nation’s financial health if it’s in critical danger?”

And there’s the problem. Sacrifices already endured are assigned no value. It’s the budget shrug: “They volunteered, didn’t they?”

Every 15 years or so, that indifference leads to cuts that eventually wreck retention — and then national leaders have to pull out all the stops and spend even more to solve the military manpower crisis they refused to prevent.

The real issue is, “How much is it worth for the country to be able to defend itself?”

Read rest of story….

Phi Beta Iota: With all due respect to MOAA, the real issue is NOT “what price defense” but rather “how best to defend.”  There are three simple solutions to the military and and benefits problem that do NOT require reductions:

1.  Restore the universal draft including immigrants and including a mid-career “sabatical” between military and private sector.  This bonds the nation–one boot camp, three choices: Armed Forces, Peace Corps, Homeland Service.

2.  Establish Constitutional honest government tht does not lead the Republic into elective wars for ideological and private reasons on the basis of (most recently) 935 documented lies.  The same honest government can be expected to end the acquisition of things we do not need (e.g. missile defense in Poland, J-22, new nuclear submarine) at costs we cannot afford.

3.  End the fiction that future Medicare costs re unfunded.  They are only unfunded because a corrupt Congress in cahoots with a corrupt Administration (both parties) has forbidden price negotiation.  The minute we restore honest government current and future Medicare costs come down to 1% (ONE percent) of what we pay now.

Thomas Jefferson:  A Nation's best defense is an educated citizenry.

Russell Ackoff:  Stop trying to do the wrong things righter; do the right things.

Robert Steele:  The truth at any cost reduces all other costs.

Journal: Violating Our Troops, Violating Others, Violating We

03 Economy, 06 Family, 07 Health, 09 Justice, 10 Security, 11 Society, Civil Society, Military, Officers Call
Chuck Spinney Recommends

OP-ED COLUMNIST

The Way We Treat Our Troops

By BOB HERBERT

Published: October 22, 2010

You can only hope that the very preliminary peace efforts in Afghanistan bear fruit before long. But for evidence that the United States is letting its claim to greatness, and even common decency, slip through its fingers, all you need to do is look at the way we treat our own troops.

The idea that the United States is at war and hardly any of its citizens are paying attention to the terrible burden being shouldered by its men and women in uniform is beyond appalling.

Bob Herbert

We can get fired up about Lady Gaga and the Tea Party crackpots. We’re into fantasy football, the baseball playoffs and our obsessively narcissistic tweets. But American soldiers fighting and dying in a foreign land? That is such a yawn.

I would bring back the draft in a heartbeat. Then you wouldn’t have these wars that last a lifetime. And you wouldn’t get mind-bending tragedies like the death of Sgt. First Class Lance Vogeler, a 29-year-old who was killed a few weeks ago while serving in the Army in his 12th combat tour. That’s right, his 12th — four in Iraq and eight in Afghanistan.

Read rest of this article….

NIGHTWATCH Extract: China Using Rare Earth Elements (REE) to Test Economic & Technical Pressure Options

02 China, 03 Economy, 10 Security, Commerce, Commercial Intelligence, Earth Intelligence, Government, Military

China and Rare Earth Elements: China's new Five-Year Program will fail to bring any rapid change in export quotas for rare earth elements (REE), Chinese Ambassador to the World Trade Organization Sun Zhenyu said, Reuters reported. He also said China's REE reserves were depleting quickly and that Beijing must conserve them. According to Sun, China's reserves have fallen from 33 percent of the world's total in 1996 to 30 percent presently, and that they will last only for another 15-20 years. He urged other nations to begin developing their own REE reserves.

China-Japan: Japan's stockpile of rare earth elements (REE), if China does not restart REE exporting, could empty by March or April 2011, said Yoshikatsu Nakayama, Japanese vice-minister of the economy, trade and industry, Agence France-Presse reported on 21 October.

China-Germany: German companies have been told by Chinese officials to increase their investments in China if they wish to continue to receive rare earth elements (REE) and two other elements China mines, tungsten and antimony, The New York Times reported on 21 October, citing a spokeswoman for the German engineering federation.

On 21 October, unidentified German industry officials said that Chinese customs officials were for the fourth day blocking the final paperwork approval necessary for REE to be exported to Germany. The officials said China is still exporting REE that had paperwork approved before 18 October.

NIGHTWATCH Comment: The Chinese appear to be using rare earth elements exports for testing economic pressure tactics against potential rivals or adversaries. Rare earth elements are used in many high technology applications.

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Phi Beta Iota: This is what happens when government becomes irresponsible, divorced from reality, without a strategic analytic model, and so ideologically insane as to make a lobbyist for Goldman Sachs the National Security Advisor.  This all started in the 1970's, it is not new, but now it is close to a fatal sucking chest wound for the Republic.

See Also:

Election 2008 Chapter: The Substance of Governance

Journal: UK Defence Bottoms Up, US DoD Next…

10 Security, 11 Society, Budgets & Funding, Military, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence
Joe Cirincione

Joe Cirincione

President of Ploughshares Fund

Posted: October 20, 2010 02:13 PM

British Budget Collapse Foreshadows Cuts to Come in U.S. Defense Budget

Great Britain's cuts, particularly to its nuclear forces, are the canary in the defense budget mine. Just as massive deficits forced the conservative UK government to cut deep into its military programs, the United States will soon have to choose: update its force structure or cling to obsolete Cold War posture?
– – – – – –

U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates is going through his own budget pain, now choosing which weapons to cut in an effort to save some $100 billion over the next five years. The Pentagon budget has doubled since 2001, rising an average of seven percent a year. This budget growth is expected to slow to only 1 percent in the near future, and even that may be unsupportable. Something's got to give. To preserve vital conventional military forces, the service chiefs will likely have to cut into the $54 billion spent each year on nuclear weapons-related programs.

Read full article…

Phi Beta Iota: DoD needs to fall back to $500 billion a year, and wean itself of contractors at the same time that it creates a long-haul Air Force, a 450-ship Navy, and a military-based multinational Peace Corps.

2010: Human Intelligence (HUMINT) Trilogy Updated

2010: OPINION–America’s Cyber Scam

2009 Perhaps We Should Have Shouted: A Twenty-Year Restrospective

2008 U.S. Naval Power in the 21st Century

2008 Rebalancing the Instruments of National Power–Army Strategy Conference of 2008 Notes, Summary, & Article

2001 Threats, Strategy, and Force Structure: An Alternative Paradigm for National Security

2000 Presidential Leadership and National Security Policy Making

1998 JFQ The Asymmetric Threat: Listening to the Debate

1997 Strategic Intelligence in the USA: Myth or Reality?

1997 USIP Conference on Virtual Diplomacy Virtual Intelligence: Conflict Avoidance and Resolution through Information Peacekeeping

1995 Re-Inventing Intelligence The Vision and the Strategy

1995 GIQ 13/2 Creating a Smart Nation: Strategy, Policy, Intelligence, and Information

1993 On Defense & Intelligence–The Grand Vision

1991 MCG Intelligence Support for Expeditionary Planners