Crisis Group CrisisWatch N°89, 3 January 2011

02 Diplomacy, 04 Education, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Terrorism, 10 Security, 10 Transnational Crime, Civil Society, CrisisWatch reports, Government, Law Enforcement, Military, Non-Governmental
report download (pdf)

Five actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated and two improved in December 2010, according to the latest issue of the International Crisis Group's monthly bulletin CrisisWatch.

Côte d’Ivoire was gripped by political crisis as incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo refused to cede power after losing to rival Alassane Outtara in the late-November presidential runoff polls. Post-election violence claimed the lives of at least 170 people and more than 15,000 fled to neighbouring countries.

Continue reading “Crisis Group CrisisWatch N°89, 3 January 2011”

Journal: CIA Ghosts of Khost Ride Again….

04 Education, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Intelligence (government), Methods & Process, Misinformation & Propaganda, Officers Call, Secrecy & Politics of Secrecy, Waste (materials, food, etc)
Marcus Aurelius Recommends

Using terminology sometimes used in the DoD special operations community, article below conveys a strong suggestion that in organizing and staffing its operation at Khost, CIA failed to discriminate between enthusiasm and capability.  Based on knowing nothing more about the case than is available to the public, there seems to be a lot to agree with in this article, which seems to get better the farther into it you read.

2.  A quotation long reputed to be associated with Marine Corps Drill Instructors is, “Let's be damned sure that no man's ghost will ever have cause to say, ‘if your training program had only done its job.'”  The obvious supposition is that you actually put people through the training program.  That may not have happened here.

Silent Stars

By Jennifer Sklaka

Washingtonian.com, January 2011

Phi Beta Iota: Click on Silent Stars to read the entire piece, link posted for the record.  Toward the end the article gracefully provides an indictment of CIA's incompetence across multiple fronts.

See Also:

Journal: The Truth on Khost Kathy

Journal: CIA Officer Blew Off Warning in Jordon Weeks in Advance of Jordanian Suicide Bombing in Afghanistan that Killed Seven

Journal: CIA Does It Again….(Taliban Imposter)

Reference: Panetta Puts Lipstick on the Pig (Again)

Journal: Afghanistan as a Failure of Imagination

08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, Advanced Cyber/IO, Augmented Reality, Budgets & Funding, Commerce, Corruption, Government, InfoOps (IO), Intelligence (government), Methods & Process, Military, Officers Call, Policy, Reform, Strategy, Threats
Who, Me?

Flawed projects prove costly for Afghanistan, U.S.

Contractor leaves Afghan police stations half-complete

Phi Beta Iota: Our political, policy, and military leaders simply do not know what they do not know.  Assuming–desiring–that they have the best of intentions–the reality is that they are not receiving the intelligence (decision-support) that they require to make intelligent decisions.  In both Iraq and Afghanistan, because there was political will, trillions have been wasted on “security” instead of sustenance.  Haiti, because there were no political will, was a microcosm–20,000 troops with a huge logistics tail when what was really needed were CAB 21 Peace Jumpers able to call in a Reverse TPFID….  Advanced Cyber/IO starts with imagination & intelligence.

Reference: Gorgon Stare–USAF Goes Nuts (Again)

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Advanced Cyber/IO, Analysis, Augmented Reality, Budgets & Funding, Geospatial, info-graphics/data-visualization, InfoOps (IO), Intelligence (government), Maps, Methods & Process, Military, Misinformation & Propaganda, Officers Call, Policy, Politics of Science & Science of Politics, Power Behind-the-Scenes/Special Interests, Reform, Secrecy & Politics of Secrecy, Standards, Strategy, Technologies, Waste (materials, food, etc)
Chuck Spinney Sounds Off

SEE ALSO: Journal: Gorgon Stare (All Eyes, No Brain)

The American Way of War: If You Can See Everything, Can You Know Anything?

With Air Force's new drone, ‘we can see everything,' in today's Washington Post (attached below) is a good example of how the high-cost addiction to techno war is  running amok. One thing ought to be clear in Afghanistan: A tiny adversary armed with the most primitive weapons, and a command and control system made up of prayer rugs and cell phones, has brought the high tech US military to a stalemate … or even worse, the looming specter a grand-strategic defeat, because we are becoming economically and morally exhausted by the futility of this war.  It does not matter whether it is President Obama presiding over a vapid strategic review or a low ranking grunt on point in Afghanistan — the central problem facing the United States in Afghanistan is the absence of what the Germans call fingerspitzengefühlor the feeling in the fingerprints needed for an intuitive feel for or connection with one's environment.

As the American strategist Colonel John Boyd (USAF Ret.) showed, fingerspitzengefühl is absolutely essential to the kind of synthetic (as opposed to analytic) thinking that is necessary for quick, relevant, and ultimately successful decision making in war, where quick decisions and sharp actions at all levels must be made and harmonized in an ever-present  atmosphere of menace, uncertainty, mistrust, fear, and chaos that impedes decisive action.[1]

Article About Grogon Stare

To paraphrase Clausewitz, these difficulties multiply to produce a kind of friction, and therefore, even though everything in war is simple, the simplest thing is difficult.  Clausewitz considered friction is the atmosphere of war. Nevertheless, according to the Post, the Air Force is about to deploy to Afghanistan a “revolutionary airborne surveillance system called Gorgon Stare, which will be able to transmit live video images of physical movement across an entire town.”

Quoting Maj. Gen. James O. Poss, the Air Force's assistant deputy chief of staff for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, “Gorgon Stare will be looking at a whole city, so there will be no way for the adversary to know what we're looking at, and we can see everything.”  Nirvana. While the Post dutifully reports a smattering of opposing views, it misses the ramifications of the central idea epitomized by General Poss's confident assertion: namely, how the American ideology of techno war assumes it can negate the human need for fingerspitzengefühl on a battlefield.

General Poss's confidence suggests quite clearly he believes seeing everything enables one to know everything. This a stunning theory of knowledge.  It is also a classic example of the American military's unquestioned belief that complex technologies coupled to step-by-step analytical procedures can negate the friction of combat to solve any problem in war.  Lifting the fog of war is, in fact, a phrase frequently used in contractor brochures touting the efficacy of these technologies.  This reflects theory of knowledge — really an unquestioned ideology — that views war as fundamentally a procedural problem of methodical analytical thinking, as opposed to its messy reality of being in large part an art of synthetic thinking.

Continue reading “Reference: Gorgon Stare–USAF Goes Nuts (Again)”

Journal: Next Year’s Wars, This Year’s Gay Resistance

08 Wild Cards, 09 Justice, 10 Security, 11 Society, Civil Society, Cultural Intelligence, Government, IO Multinational, Military, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence
Marcus Aurelius Recommends

Next Year's Wars

The 16 brewing conflicts to watch for in 2011.

Foreign Policy with International Crisis Group

December 28, 2010

Large photos with captions on each

and closer to home….

THE GAYING OF AMERICA

Officer won't sign order for troop indoctrination, asks to be relieved of command over repeal of ‘gay' ban in military

Worldnet.com,Posted: December 24, 2010

An Army lieutenant colonel has asked to be relieved of command rather than order his troops to go through pro-homosexual indoctrination following the repeal of the policy, which required homosexuals to keep silent about their sexual preference.

Read article….

Journal: Why It Is Time to Leave Afghanistan

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Justice, 09 Terrorism, 10 Security, 11 Society, Government, Military, Peace Intelligence
Chuck Spinney Recommends...

Afghanistan: Our mandate for action is finally exhausted

The withdrawal of our troops is not because we have won or lost in any conventional sense

Editorial

The Observer, Sunday 2 January 2011

This year will see the 10th anniversary of the war in Afghanistan and, according to current plans, the beginning of British troop withdrawal. A decade into the military campaign, there is no longer even discussion of winning. The initial objective to release the country from the despotic grip of the Taliban and prevent its use as a safe haven for al-Qaida was achieved within months. Since then, it has only ever become harder to discern what victory might look like.

There is some clarity on what would count as defeat. If Nato withdrawal leads to the total collapse of Hamid Karzai's government and a return to Taliban rule, there would be no disguising the humiliation to western powers, nor the increased security threat from jihadi terrorism. Not that President Karzai is an attractive ruler. His administration is corrupt and repressive.