Neal Rauhauser: Syria, Regional War, The Only Red Line That Matters + Syria Meta-RECAP

02 China, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 06 Russia, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Proliferation, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Terrorism, DoD, Ethics, Government, IO Deeds of Peace, Military, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence
Neal Rauhauser
Neal Rauhauser

The Only Red Line That Matters

Conclusion:

Here are what I hope are a fairly complete laundry list of the issues:

  • NATO member Greece has collapsed, triggering regional banking meltdown concerns
  • Banks of Cyprus collapsed, Russian offshore banking haven taken out by Greek troubles
  • Russian ally Assad’s Syria is failing, loss of Tartus would exclude them from the Med
  • Assad regime is the only Iran friendly outpost in the area
  • Syrian revolt is funded in part by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, other Sunni majority regimes
  • KSA & Qatar funds come /w Salafist radicalization built into the deal
  • NATO members Greece & Turkey are at odds over Cyprus partition
  • Syrian instability is spilling into Iraq, fueling Sunni/Shia violence, some refugees
  • Syrian instability is spilling into U.S. ally Jordan, many refugees
  • Syrian instability is spilling into NATO member Turkey, many refugees
  • Israel is concerned over weapons transport to Hezbollah in Lebanon
Click on Image to Enlarge
Click on Image to Enlarge

The Syrian civil war has been metastasizing into all of its immediate neighbors – Iraq, Turkey, and Lebanon have all seen violence precipitated by this festering conflict. Regional powers Iran and Russia have connections to the failing Assad regime and have taken indirect steps to protect the status quo. Regional Salafist funders Saudi Arabia and Qatar are funneling support and pushing ideology on Sunni Syrian rebels. I do not envy Israeli policy makers and the menu of unpleasant options that reality has provided them.

Russia has drawn a red line of their own – no NATO intervention in Syria. They’ve backed it up with a naval presence and the transfer of advance anti-aircraft systems to the Assad regime. The Syrian civil war is a multifaceted, multipolar regional issue and there are no soundbite sized prescriptions that will end it.

Read full post with maps.

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Owl: Why Obama Will Survive Five Scandals, Persist on Syria, & Risk WWIII

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 06 Russia, 08 Wild Cards, Blog Wisdom, True Cost
Who?  Who?
Who? Who?

The real story here is not whether Obama will survive five Watergate-type scandals, but it is rather about his response to scandals in his administration will lead to WWIII. Here are key take-aways from this first article:

“In the last eight months, I have repeated the mantra that most of what drives this government today is the preservation of the Petrodollar on behalf of the Federal Reserve. I have also detailed how Iran is selling its oil to Russia, China and India for gold, thus threatening the preeminence of the Petrodollar in which the other countries of the world must first purchase dollars from the Federal Reserve for the “privilege” of purchasing oil. This process provides the only backing that our dollar possesses.  Iran, China, Russia and India are destabilizing the dominance of our currency…”

Click on Image to Enlarge
Click on Image to Enlarge

Syria is key to attacking Iran:

“On the surface, Syria seems so very insignificant on the global chessboard. However, the key to invading Iran and seizing their oil fields is to first control Syria because the occupation of Syria is an insurmountable checkmate against Russian ground troops intervention.  If the US takes over the Syrian revolution that we started through our al-Qaeda proxy forces, the US will gain a huge tactical advantage in the Middle East. The installation of short and medium range missile batteries in Syria will serve as a deterrent and a blocking mechanism for Russian ground troops ability to intervene in Iran.  If Russia allows the US to control Syria, Russia will lose any chance of preventing a US/NATO takeover of Iran. Russia and China have heavily vested themselves in gold. If Iran is stopped from selling its oil for gold, China, Russia and India will have wasted a enormous amount of the respective GNP’s in acquiring gold.  And the acquisition of gold will be for naught if the US is above to re-establish the dominance of the Petrodollar as the world’s reserve currency through a successful invasion of Iran.  For awhile, it appeared as if Russia did not have the stomach for WWIII and they were going to let us topple Assad with so much as a whimper. I have been shocked as I watched Russia apparently acquiesce to an impending takeover of Syria by US led forces.  However, recent Russian events make it clear that WWIII is on the horizon.”

Intervening in Syria may result in some remarkable black swans if this author's contacts are correct:

“My military and intelligence sources were telling me last year that Alaska and Taiwan were at risk of a Russian invasion with regard to this conflict as is the North Pole if we intervened directly in either Syria or Iran. The North Pole?  The North Pole’s melting glaciers has exposed the world’s greatest oil supply as well as untold amounts of gold and other precious metals. This is another story for another time except to illustrate that the Russians are talking world war if we topple Assad and invade Iran.  This means WWIII is near and this reality is evidenced  by the fact that the Russians are drawing a clear line in the sand and this is why Obama is not concerned about any thought of impeachment. The one thing that will distract the country from the five present “Watergates” will be the commencement of World War Three.”

More:

Why Obama Will Survive the Equivalent of Five “Watergate Scandals”

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References: NATO Transformation Process Documents — and Gaps + Peace from Above RECAP

NATO Civ-Mil Ctr

1997 NATOConnected Forces Initiative (latest NATO HQ initiative, should prioritize future ACT work, currently under initial study)

After 2014, NATO is expected to shift its emphasis from operational engagement to operational preparedness. This means NATO will need to remain capable of performing its core tasks – described in its Strategic Concept¹ – and of maintaining its forces at a high level of readiness. To help achieve this, Allied leaders have set out the goal of ‘NATO Forces 2020’: modern, tightly connected forces that are properly equipped, trained, exercised and led. The Connected Forces Initiative (CFI) will help maintain NATO’s readiness and combat effectiveness through expanded education and training, increased exercises and the better use of technology.

Distributed Networked Battle Labs (cheap substitution to traditional CIS test and evaluation, lead by ACT, under implementation and facing resistance)

The Distributed Networked Battle Labs (DNBL) has been created in order to tighten cooperation on preparation and conduct of Experimentation, Test and Evaluation (ET&E) events between the members of the framework. The DNBL Framework provides the operating model to enable the federated use of capabilities and systems for a wide range of user groups and to exchange ET&E services available in the DNBL Service Catalogue.  Since 2010 the DNBL framework is in operation and has supported multiple test events in the area of Joint Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (JISR).  In light of NATO Smart Defence concept, this initiative is open for NATO organisations, NATO and PfP countries, their industry and academia.

Smart Defense (NATO HQ initiative before last, still ongoing, led by nations watched by ACT)

In these times of austerity, each euro, dollar or pound sterling counts. Smart defence is a new way of thinking about generating the modern defence capabilities the Alliance needs for the coming decade and beyond. It is a renewed culture of cooperation that encourages Allies to cooperate in developing, acquiring and maintaining military capabilities to undertake the Alliance’s essential core tasks agreed in the new NATO strategic concept. That means pooling and sharing capabilities, setting priorities and coordinating efforts better.

Smart defence is based on capability areas that are critical for NATO, in particular as established at the Lisbon summit in 2010. Ballistic missile defence, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, maintenance of readiness, training and force preparation, effective engagement and force protection – these are all on the list.

NATO Defense Planning Process (ever lasting, ever questioned, bulky slow but irreplaceable main strategic capability planning tool and driver of future capability work, Step 2 led by ACT)

The aim of NATO defence planning is to provide a framework within which national and Alliance defence planning activities can be harmonized to meet agreed targets in the most effective way. It aims to facilitate the timely identification, development and delivery of the necessary range of forces – forces that are interoperable and adequately prepared, equipped, trained and supported – as well as the associated military and non-military capabilities to undertake the Alliance’s full spectrum of missions.

Defence planning encompasses several planning domains: force, resource, armaments, logistics, nuclear, C3 (consultation, command and control), civil emergency planning, air defence, air traffic management, standardization, intelligence, medical support and research and technology. The NDPP has introduced a new approach to defence planning and operates within the new NATO committee structure.

Continue reading “References: NATO Transformation Process Documents — and Gaps + Peace from Above RECAP”

SchwartzReport: Army Goes Green (20 Years After It Was Told To…)

03 Economy, 03 Environmental Degradation, 05 Energy, 07 Health, 11 Society, DoD, Earth Intelligence, Ethics, Military, Officers Call

schwartz reportThis is good news. The military, perhaps because it is a centralized command structure, often adopts progressive positions before general society. The military integrated long before the rest of America. It became a gender, race, and religion neutral meritocracy — an evolution in which I played a role — well before this was the norm. So the military's adaptation of noncarbon energy is the latest in a line of accomplishments.

The Army Goes Off the Grid
Jim Hightower – Nation of Change

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Chuck Spinney: Austerity Economics is Fraud — Primer for Citizens

01 Poverty, 03 Economy, 07 Other Atrocities, 10 Transnational Crime, 11 Society, Articles & Chapters, Civil Society, Commerce, Corruption, Government, Idiocy, Office of Management and Budget, Strategy

Chuck Spinney
Chuck Spinney

Austerity Economics

Why Snake Oil is the Drug of Choice for Ayn Rand Wannabees
Attached are two important papers, one by Stephanie Kelton and the other by Paul Krugman, arguing that it is time to consign austerity economics to the dustbin of history.  Both are variations on a theme and are spot on, IMO.
The fundamental problem tamping down the American recovery is excessive debt in the private sector, NOT the government sector.  Yet austerity economics ignores this reality and argues speciously for reductions in government spending.  The sequester has taken this nonsense to the level of policy lunacy by legislating an abdication of government's primary responsibility –i.e., to make policy decisions, in to law.  As Krugman points out there is method to the austerity madness, however.
But madness it is.  The attached chart, which I have distributed before, uses Federal Reserve Data to place the real debt problem into a long term perspective.  Note the vertical scales are IDENTICAL!  Bear in mind, the chart is about 1.5 years out of date and it does not reflect the recent, pre-sequester reductions in Federal Debt discussed below.

SchwartzReport: Plastic Guns Drive Home the Criminal Insanity of “The Western Way” of Security

05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 09 Justice, 10 Security, 11 Society, Corruption, DHS, Government, Idiocy, Ineptitude, Law Enforcement

schwartz reportIt is amazing how an inexpensive technological development can render irrelevant billions of dollars of investment. In this case the security apparatus of Homeland Security. When I did the original 3-D printing story about three years ago the printers cost $50,000. Just a few weeks ago, when these printers hit the news big time the printers were $8,000. In this story the printer used was $2,600. I predict, within a year 3-D printers that can print guns will be less than $1000. Clearly dealing with terrorism requires new strategies, a different approach than asking people to surrender their civil liberties, and billions spent on building a huge intrusive security apparat.  Click through to see the many pictures which will add to your understanding of what this issue involves.

How Mail On Sunday ‘Printed' First Plastic Gun in UK Using a 3D Printer, Then Took It On Eurostar
SIMON MURPHY and RUSSELL MYERS – The Mail (U.K.)

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