NIGHTWATCH Special Report: October in Afghanistan 27 November 2009
Taliban and other anti-government fighters have begun to go to winter quarters, in Pakistan or in Afghanistan. The fighting will drop somewhat during the winter, but in the core provinces of the Pashtun south, weather is not a factor.
Based on Taliban public statements, their attacks will remain focused on disruption of the overland truck lifeline for Afghan and NATO forces, mainly by using improvised bombs. In the face of renewed NATO resolve, the Taliban also will wait for the next opportunity to attempt to take power.
Taliban cannot defeat NATO forces, but NATO forces cannot defeat Taliban, especially without combat air support. The government in Kabul cannot survive without NATO forces, but by this time next year the Afghan forces will need more logistics and air support rather than combat soldiers, if the US and European NATO trainers are competent.
