Cost of War: Obama and Dr. Gates Both Lie….

03 Economy, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, Budgets & Funding, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Military, Peace Intelligence
Winslow Wheeler

Released Wednesday by the sponsoring Watson Institute of Brown University, a new multi-author study of the costs of the post-9/11 wars is availableMost prominently, the study finds the appropriations thus far to have been between $2.3 and 2.7 trillion; with an additional $884 to $1,334 billion to already have been incurred for future costs for veterans and their families. This would make a total, incurred thus far, of from $3.2 Trillion to $4.0 trillion. (Find a summary of these costs at http://costsofwar.org/article/economic-cost-summary.)  It is important to note that these are basically budget costs to the federal government, not the broader economic costs to the economy or other costs to state and local governments.

The study also addresses still other expenses, such as the human costs in terms of civilian dead, the wounded, refugees, and more.

There is certainly some you will find to disagree with, but it is clear that advocates of the various conflicts who pretend the costs have been only the $1 trillion that President Obama articulated last week are feeding the nation grotesquely inaccurate information.  Others, like departing SecDef Gates, who pretend that DOD spending is not a major factor in the size of our deficit are not particularly skilled in “math,” an elementary skill for government types that Secretary Gates has chosen to deride and to leave to others to perform.

I participated in the Costs of War study; see my paper on the DOD .  It makes two basic points on p. 14:

1) “… while [the Congressional Research Service] and others have done long, hard, and excellent work to capture the identifiable appropriations to the Pentagon for the Post-9/11 wars, the $1.2 trillion CRS has, for example, identified in current dollars is problematic, but the fault is not with CRS, CBO, or GAO. The available figures have gaping holes and problems in them because of the sloppy, inept and misleading accounting of the costs by the Defense Department and Congress.”

2) “The $667 billion in 2011 dollars ($617 billion in current dollars) appropriated to the Defense Department's base budget since 2001 as a result of the wars, while squandered, should be included in any comprehensive attempt to capture the total cost of the wars. These amounts would bring the total DOD costs of the wars to $1.98 Trillion in constant 2011 dollars and $1.82 trillion in current dollars.”

A Reuters story below summarizes the overall “Costs of War” study.

Cost of war at least $3.7 trillion and counting

By Daniel Trotta

NEW YORK | Wed Jun 29, 2011

(Reuters) – When President Barack Obama cited cost as a reason to bring troops home from Afghanistan, he referred to a $1 trillion price tag for America's wars.

Staggering as it is, that figure grossly underestimates the total cost of wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan to the U.S. Treasury and ignores more imposing costs yet to come, according to a study released on Wednesday.

The final bill will run at least $3.7 trillion and could reach as high as $4.4 trillion, according to the research project “Costs of War” by Brown University's Watson Institute for International Studies.

Phi Beta Iota: Emphasis added above.  Brown, like Rutgers, is a hotbed of left-leaning intellectuals who probably wonder how a Democratic President could have become a neo-fascist war-monger.  The answer is simple: corruption has no ideology.  It is pervasive.  Interestingly, the wire services (AP, Reuters, AFP, Bloomberg on occasion) and Russian Television as well as Al Jazeera, are emerging from this period as examples of integrity in action.

Landmark Afghan hotel attacked

08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, Civil Society, Corruption, Counter-Oppression/Counter-Dictatorship Practices, Cultural Intelligence, Government, IO Deeds of War, Military
Click on Image to Enlarge

UPDATED to add photo.  Guards at the front door, no guards across the totally exposed back end.  Sheraton San Salvador was attacked from the ravine.   Deja vu.

Landmark Afghan hotel attacked

Los Angeles Times, 28 June 2011

Gunmen and suicide bombers strike the tightly secured Intercontinental Hotel in Kabul, which has large foreign clientele. It was not immediately known how many people were killed or wounded.

Read full article…

Phi Beta Iota: Well-intentioned professionals like to say that if the US only has enough will to persist, it can prevail against any enemy.  That is not correct.  When the US engaged in elective wars and lacks legitimacy in the eyes of the occupied public, it will inevitably lose.  When the US Government is delusional and ignoring the harsh realities at home, it loses its domestic legitimacy.  Events like the Tet Offensive, or the increasing attacks in the heart of Kabul, accentuate the cognitive dissonance among all parties.  This will not end well for the US.

Trending: Torture and Toxic Army Leaders

04 Inter-State Conflict, 07 Other Atrocities, 09 Justice, 09 Terrorism, Advanced Cyber/IO, Civil Society, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Ethics, Government, Intelligence (government), Law Enforcement, Methods & Process, Military, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence
Marcus Aurelius Recommends

General Patraeus, one of the four generals featured in the book, The Fourth Star: Four Generals and the Epic Struggle for the Future of the United States Army is easily one of the best and brightest of our generation.  I was surprised to read about his opening the door to torture.

Worst-case scenario

NY Daily News, Saturday, June 25th 2011

And on the other end–concerns rising within the US Army about “toxic leaders.”  Too many of them, perhaps greater in proportion at higher ranks.

Army Survey Raises Worries Over Damage Caused By ‘Toxic' Leaders

Washington Post, June 26, 2011

Phi Beta Iota: We asked Col Stu Herrington, USA (Ret), Army counterintelligence officer/interrogator with successful interrogation experience in three wars, what he thought of the matter of General Patraeus opening the door on torture, and here is what he thinks–we have to concur.

Continue reading “Trending: Torture and Toxic Army Leaders”

Libyan Rebels Genociding Black Libyans

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 06 Genocide, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, Corruption, Government, Military, Peace Intelligence
Cynthia McKinney

Ethnic Cleansing of Black Libyans

Black Star News Editorial, 06-21-11

Rebels, with the help of NATO bombs and missiles, drove out Misrata's Black population

The “rebels” in Misrata in Libya have driven out the entire Black population of the city, according to a chilling story in The Wall Street Journal today under the headline Libya City Torn by Tribal Feud.”

The “rebels” now eye the city of Tawergha, 25 miles away, and vow to cleanse it of all Black people once they seize the city. Isn't this the perfect definition of the term “genocide”?

According to The Journal's article, the “rebels” refer to themselves as “the brigade for purging slaves, black skin.” The Journal quotes a rebel commander Ibrahim al-Halbous saying, of Black Libyans, “They should pack up,” and that “Tawergha no longer exists, only Mistrata.”

You won't read this kind of article in The New York Times, which has become as journalistically corrupt and as compromised as the old PRAVDA, during the Soviet era. This editorial page has been insisting since the beginning of the Libya conflict that the “rebels” embraced racism and used the allegation that Muammar al-Quathafi had employed mercenaries from other African countries as a pretext to massacre Black Libyans.

Read rest of editorial….

Phi Beta Iota: Congress has no clue–pontificating politicals divorced from reality.  Cynthia McKinney, Green Party candidate for President in 2008, has taken a personal interest in this, and personally visited Libya to confirm that NATO is committing war crimes in its indiscriminate attacks against Tripoli, far removed from the “no fly zone” as originally envisioned.  What the US Government is doing “in our name” in Libya, and in many countries around the world, is neither Constitutional nor affordable.  Congress is lacking in intelligence and integrity.  The lunacy continues….

NIGHTWATCH: The Facts on Afghanistan Fighting

04 Inter-State Conflict, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, Advanced Cyber/IO, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Military, Peace Intelligence

Afghanistan: Special Comment. Longtime Readers know that NightWatch has had a continuing project to monitor the security situation in Afghanistan since mid-2006, using a consistent sample of unclassified reporting. In 2006, when the Taliban resurgence was just beginning, NightWatch began publishing monthly summaries of the security situation.

In the past three years, the number of incidents per month has increased so that compiling and analyzing monthly reports threatened to become a full time job.

NightWatch has continued to track data in detail for all 400 districts of Afghanistan every other month and spot checked fighting reports in between. Preliminary analysis of the data for May 2011 was completed today. The table below shows the data from three tracking measures since last November.

DATA AT SOURCE (24 HOUR Lag)

What do these data  signify?

Continue reading “NIGHTWATCH: The Facts on Afghanistan Fighting”

Barack Obama Blows Heavy Smoke & Some Lies

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, Corruption, Government, IO Impotency, Military
Sucks for You....

The remarks of the President are beneath contempt in so far as they completely avoid reality.  Every statement about Afghanistan is questionable if not an outright misrepresentation.  Al Quada and Afghanistan are not the same.  This entire statement is a crock of warm, diseased spit.   It is offensive in the extreme in its disrespect for public intelligence and the expectation of integrity in governance.

An honest president would admit that we are losing in Afghanistan and the Taliban is gaining (while also resupplying itself from our stocks); that suicide terrorism is directly related to the presence of US troops in countries where there is no public interest, only a special interest.

An honest president would apologize for attacking Libya and committing war crimes in Tripoli, a Congressional declaration of war not being in effect, and an honest president would admit that we are assassinating people–often the wrong people–all over the world.

An honest president would address the fraud that has bankrupted the nation and the corruption in the US government that allows all white collar criminals to avoid justice.

An honest president would admit that the domestic economic and social situation is desperate–the last twenty years have seen what Grover Norquist called the ultimate bi-partisanship: when the two parties get together and agree to screw the American people.

Barack Obama–like his immediate predecessors–is not an honest president.  His rhetoric is false, offensive, and if Congress were honest, which it is not, he would be facing impeachment prior to the 4th of July.

Phi Beta Iota: This just in from NIGHTWATCH (forthcoming):  …..tells a much different tale than what was said tonight…..

Just finished the first analysis of May 2011 finished.  Unprecedented level of engagements of all kinds. Over 2000 for the first time in my data sample. The number of districts under stress is over 280 out of 400, all
time high just under three-fourths.

For honest appraisals of Afghanistan, see Spinny Afghanistan.  Washington is occupied by people who lack intelligence and integrity, who have abdicated their responsibilities under their Oaths of Office to defend and support the Constitution (not a corrupt chain of command), and who have absolutely no clue how to go about–even if they wanted to–serving the public interest.

Afterthought:  The standard retired military flag officers are making fools of themselves across the channels, none more so than MajGen Bob Scales, USA (Ret), who just threw his integrity under the bus on Fox.  GO ARMY.  This is pathetic.  How do we censure retired generals for deceiving any portion of the public?

Twitter Volunteers Helping NATO Bomb Libya…

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Advanced Cyber/IO, Analysis, Civil Society, Collective Intelligence, Collective Intelligence, Counter-Oppression/Counter-Dictatorship Practices, Cultural Intelligence, IO Sense-Making, Methods & Process, Military
Who, Me?

Believe it or not….NATO appears to be attentive to and leveraging the “intellectual capital” outside the confines of its Member state intelligence services.

How social media users are helping NATO fight Gadhafi in Libya

GRAEME SMITH

Globe and Mail, Tuesday, Jun. 14, 2011

EXTRACT:

Robert Rowley, 48, supervisor of a Dairy Queen in Arizona, said he has already seen results from his Twitter activism. He was among the first to notice fuel tankers slipping past NATO warships and docking at ports controlled by Col. Gadhafi, which led to NATO interdictions.

He also wonders whether his tweets might be connected to the bombing of a Gadhafi communications centre in Tripoli. Combing through satellite images, he noticed that a property listed as a commercial warehouse had a yard containing what appeared to be military vehicles. He published his observations; 10 hours later, the spot was hit by a NATO air strike.

“I’m 5,000 miles away,” he said, in an interview before his shift at the ice-cream parlour. “It’s a very weird feeling.”

Read full article….