David Brin on Plausibility & Paranoia

Analysis, Cultural Intelligence, Ethics
David Brin

Thursday, May 05, 2011

Seven Rules of Plausibility by Roy Latham

Rule 1. Don’t call the theory ridiculous

Rule 2. Don’t casually accept factual premises that are offered.

Rule 3. Consider the relevance of the expertise of a claimed expert

Rule 4. Consider Claims One-by-One

Rule 5. Keep a Running Tally of the Number of Conspirators

Rule 6. Acknowledge Valid Points

Rule 7. Ask for Direct Evidence of Conspiracy

Read full discussion of all seven rules….

See Also (by David Brin):

Conspiracies and Wishful Thinking (2010/12/06)

WHEN IS A CONSPIRACY THEORY NOT A CONSPIRACY THEORY? (2005)

Paranoia has many roots and levels

As one who nurses a few conspiracy theories of his own — but only ones that fit the Seven Secret Rules of Plausibility 😉 — I actually find most of the run-of-the-mill-kneejerk stories, concocted by modern loonies (not only on the far right, but also plenty on the far-left and even far-out) to be just plain dumb. They are nearly always based on several self-flattering premises:

Continue reading “David Brin on Plausibility & Paranoia”

Seth Godin: High School Done Right

04 Education, 11 Society, Academia, Advanced Cyber/IO, Cultural Intelligence, Ethics
Seth Godin Home

What's high school for?

Perhaps we could endeavor to teach our future the following:

  • How to focus intently on a problem until it's solved.
  • The benefit of postponing short-term satisfaction in exchange for long-term success.
  • How to read critically.
  • The power of being able to lead groups of peers without receiving clear delegated authority.
  • An understanding of the extraordinary power of the scientific method, in just about any situation or endeavor.
  • How to persuasively present ideas in multiple forms, especially in writing and before a group.
  • Project management. Self-management and the management of ideas, projects and people.
  • Personal finance. Understanding the truth about money and debt and leverage.
  • An insatiable desire (and the ability) to learn more. Forever.
  • Most of all, the self-reliance that comes from understanding that relentless hard work can be applied to solve problems worth solving.

Call for Nuclear Global Phase Out

Advanced Cyber/IO, Earth Intelligence, Ethics, IO Multinational, IO Sense-Making, Key Players, Policies, Serious Games, Threats

The Right Livelihood Award Foundation

Newsletter April 2011

Call for Global Nuclear Phase Out

In the aftermath of Fukushima, 50 Laureates of the Right Livelihood Award and members of the World Future Council demanded in a joint statement a global nuclear phase out.

“Nuclear power is neither the answer to modern energy problems nor a panacea for climate change challenges. There is no solution of problems by creating more problems,” states the declaration, issued by experts, activists, politicians, clergy, entrepreneurs and scientists from 26 countries.

Click here to read the full statement and to see the list of signees.

For Brazilian-Portuguese, please click here.

A German translation is available here.

Phi Beta Iota: Buckminster Fuller had it right.  Infinite free (renewable) energy is achievable, and the foundation for everything else.  That is what the anthrosphere needs, and that is what would make the anthrosphere naturally self-sustaining [it would also have extraordinary impact on water immediately and waste vaporation over time].

Regional Metamorphosis & Social Architecture

Advanced Cyber/IO, Analysis, Augmented Reality, Budgets & Funding, Civil Society, Collective Intelligence, Collective Intelligence, Commerce, Cultural Intelligence, Earth Intelligence, Ethics, info-graphics/data-visualization, InfoOps (IO), Methods & Process, Open Government, Policies, Serious Games, Standards, Strategy, Technologies, Tools

May 10th: Let the Infinite Games Begin!

svii

At our April 6 SVII gathering Bill Veltrop, co-founder of the Monterey Institute for Social Architecture (MISA), introduced Regional Metamorphosis as a pragmatic strategy for accelerating our movement into an Age of Conscious Evolution. Jesse Clark and colleagues then produced a video that does a great job of capturing the intent and spirit of that evening.

At the conclusion of the April 6 gathering Howard asserted that Silicon Valley had what it takes to be a leader in a regional metamorphosis movement. Howard invited us to explore this possibility together at a May 10th gathering at Serena Software from 4-7 PM.

Questions for you:

  1. Are you a GRIP, a game ready infinite player? Check your “symptoms” against this profile. http://www.theinfinitegames.org/e02/02.php
  1. Does the idea of playing a key role in bootstrapping a Silicon Valley regional metamorphosis initiative intrigue you? Below are some of the key roles we see needed if we are to turn this large idea into a global movement:

TEN MOST WANTED EVOLUTIONARIES

  • Angel Investors
  • Multimedia Story-tellers
  • Transformational Leaders
  • Champions of Generative Initiative
  • Leader for a Center for Regional Metamorphosis
  • Bridge-Builders from Academia
  • Online Collaboration Web Weavers
  • Developmental Mavens
  • Providers of Generative Services
  • Regional Conveners
  1. Are you willing to join with other interested GRIPs at Serena Software from 4-7 on Tuesday, May 10? At this gathering we will be —
  • Getting to know who we are — what each of us cares about, and could bring to this emerging infinite game
  • Diving more deeply into the ideas presented on April 6
  • Exploring for the best approach to getting traction in Silicon Valley — and beyond

Requests

  • If you plan to attend, please register here.
  • Register for May 10th: Let the infinite games begin! in Redwood City, CA  on Eventbrite
  • The address is:
    Serena Software Inc
    1900 Seaport Boulevard,
    Redwood City, CA
  • If you can’t attend but are definitely interested, or if you have any questions, please contact Bill@MISA.ws or call at 831-462-1992
  • If you’ve a friend/colleague GRIP who is a good fit, please invite him/her to join us.
  • If you attended our April 6th gathering, you may find it helpful to refresh your memory with this video, http://vimeo.com/22894801
  • If you were not at the April 6th event it’s important that you invest the time to watch the video. The May 10th gathering will build on our April 6 work together.

Tip of the Hat to David Alan and Mark Roest.

Changing the World, One Map at a Time

Advanced Cyber/IO, Augmented Reality, Civil Society, Collective Intelligence, Counter-Oppression/Counter-Dictatorship Practices, Cultural Intelligence, Ethics, info-graphics/data-visualization, InfoOps (IO), Journalism/Free-Press/Censorship, Movies, Non-Governmental, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence, Policies, Real Time, Reform, Threats, Videos/Movies/Documentaries

Video: Changing the World, One Map at a Time

Hosted in the beautiful city of Berlin, Re:publica 2011 is Germany's largest annual conference on blogs, new media and the digital society, drawing thousands of participants from across the world for three days of exciting conversations and presentations. The conference venue was truly a spectacular one and while conference presentations are typically limited to 10-20 minutes, the organizers gave us an hour to share our stories. So I'm posting the video of my presentation below for anyone interested in learning more about new media, crowdsourcing, crisis mapping, live maps, crisis response, civil resistance, digital activism and check-in's. I draw on my experience with Ushahidi and the Standby Volunteer Task Force (SBTF) and share examples from Kenya, Haiti, Libya, Japan, the US and Egypt to illustrate how live maps can change the world.

Click to Visit Original Post and then View Video (53:41, Color, Major Stage Presentation)

Theme: combined clouds and crowds to achieve  social progress with maps as a foundation.

Sense of Justice Built Into the Brain, Study Shows

04 Education, 09 Justice, Collective Intelligence, Cultural Intelligence, Ethics, IO Sense-Making
Click on Image to Enlarge

ScienceDaily (May 3, 2011) — A new study from the Karolinska Institute and Stockholm School of Economics shows that the brain has built-in mechanisms that trigger an automatic reaction to someone who refuses to share.

. . . . . . .

“This is an incredibly interesting result that shows that it isn't just processes in the prefrontal cortex and insula that determine this kind of decision about financial equitability, as was previously thought,” says Professor Martin Ingvar. “Our findings, however, can also have ethical implications since the use of certain drugs can clearly affect our everyday decision-making processes.”

This work was funded by the Swedish Research Council, The Barbro and Bernard Osher Foundation, The Swedish Agency for Innovation Systems.

Read full article….

Tip of the Hat to Lynn Wheeler at Facebook.

100+ Inspiring Change Agents on Twitter

11 Society, Advanced Cyber/IO, Civil Society, Cultural Intelligence, Ethics
Venessa Miemis

EBD, or ‘emergent by design,’ was the phrase I chose when naming this blog to describe what I was seeing around me in the most inspiring and passionate people and organizations making positive change in themselves and the world around them. To me, that means not being a passive bystander to life and letting it happen to you, but really grabbing life by the short and curlies and manifesting greatness in this epic adventure!

I’ve been on Twitter now for about 2 years, and love finding people doing amazing things. It gives me hope & energizes my spirit. I shared my technique for Twitter a while back – with “How to Use Twitter to Build Intelligence.” Let this be the 2011 curated update.

Here are some people I’d recommend following for their passion, creativity, wisdom, empathy, intelligence, and love. Some I’ve met in real life, many I simply admire from a far. I would be so curious to see what would happen if we got all them together in the same room. (how bout at Contact?) 😉

Who’s on your list of awesome? Let us know in the comments below. And here we are, in no particular order:

Visualizers  ..  Future of Local Economy & Resilient Communities  ..  Facilitation, Collective Intelligence, Organizational Change  ..  Thinkers, Writers, Academics, Researchers, Authors  ..  Futures Thinking  ..  Lifestyle Designers, Minimalists

See photos, links, and one-liners….