Category: IO Sense-Making

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Complex Societies Collapse When Commodity Prices Go UP and Financial Speculation Returns Go DOWN

Analysis, Communities of Practice, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, InfoOps (IO), Intelligence (government), IO Sense-Making, Key Players, Policies, Power Behind-the-Scenes/Special Interests, Threats
John Robb

JOURNAL: Oil >$100 Crunch time ahead (again)?

The last time the price of oil topped $100 a barrel for an extended period, we ended up in a global financial meltdown.  Is this time any different?

Not much.

All of the excessively financial leverage and fraudelent derivative wealth we had during the last melt down is still in place.  Total debt to GDP levels in the US are about the same (370% of GDP or so).  No reforms were made on Wall Street.  Nobody at fault for the fraud that led to the last melt down went to jail, so behaviors haven't changed.

We're worse off than before.  Read rest of article…

This is classic Tainter (the excellent anthropoligist/historian).  He posited that complex societies only collapse when the costs of basic inputs increase at the same time the returns on investments in complex institutions/etc. turn negative. So, with oil going up again, we are seeing basic input costs rise.   It's also clear that our twin overheads Government and Global Finance are well past the point they delivered positive returns for additional complexity.  Worse, they are colluding, via cronyism, to prevent any meaningful changes.

See Also:

Review: The Collapse of Complex Societies

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Arabian Revolt & Inequality in the USA

01 Poverty, 03 Economy, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Justice, 11 Society, Analysis, Communities of Practice, Corporations, Corruption, Counter-Oppression/Counter-Dictatorship Practices, Cultural Intelligence, InfoOps (IO), IO Sense-Making, Methods & Process, Money, Banks & Concentrated Wealth, Officers Call, Policy, Power Behind-the-Scenes/Special Interests, Reform, Secrecy & Politics of Secrecy, Waste (materials, food, etc)
Chuck Spinney Recommends...

Below are two opinion pieces.

The first is “A revolution against neoliberalism” by Abu Atris, it appeared in Al Jazeera on 24 Feb. The second is “Of the 1%, by the 1%, and for the 1%” by Joseph Stiglitz.  One is about the Arab Revolt in Egypt and the other is about income inequality in the United States … they raise stunningly similar — and very disturbing — themes when compared to each other.  I urge readers to read each carefully and think about the likenesses and differences between them.

EXHIBIT A

A revolution against neoliberalism?

If rebellion results in a retrenchment of neoliberalism, millions will feel cheated.

‘Abu Atris,’ Aljazeera, 24 February 2011

EXHIBIT B

Of the 1%, by the 1%, for the 1%

Americans have been watching protests against oppressive regimes that concentrate massive wealth in the hands of an elite few. Yet in our own democracy, 1 percent of the people take nearly a quarter of the nation’s income—an inequality even the wealthy will come to regret.

By Joseph E. Stiglitz, Vanity Fair, May 2011


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Historical Backgrounder on Libya

05 Energy, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Civil Society, Cultural Intelligence, Government, IO Sense-Making, Military, Peace Intelligence
Chuck Spinney Recommends...

The author of this long but very useful historical analysis on the history of Libya is also the author of Violent Politics: A History of Insurgency, Terrorism, and Guerrilla War, from the American Revolution to Iraq, one of the very best books I have ever read on the subject of guerrilla warfare.

Whence Libya?  Why Libya?  Whither Libya?

William R. Polk, March 31, 2011

Since the Libyan regime was established by a coup d’état in 1969,  Americans and Europeans — with a three-year intermission from 1986 to 1988 — found it acceptable enough to recognize it, sell it arms and buy its petroleum.  In that one interval, on April 15, 1986, the American government under President Ronald Reagan attempted to kill Colonel Muammar Qaddafi by bombing his residence and did wound his wife and kill about 75 Libyans including his adopted daughter.  Two years later, Qaddafi retaliated by bombing an American airliner.  That attack killed 270 people including 190 Americans among whom were at least four intelligence officers.  These were just the major events; there were many others.  Of course, Americans and Libyans took very different views of them.  But both sides eventually smoothed over their angers, and relations again became profitable and “correct” on both sides, as they remained until early this year.

So, what is the basis of those attitudes and the causes of those actions?  Who are the Libyans anyway?  And what is the position of Qaddafi among them?  What motivates the Libyans?  What governs their action?  And what is likely to be the outcome of the revolt, the regime’s resistance to it and the Western intervention?

With the prejudice of a historian, I find that seeking answers to these questions requires at least a glance at the past.  That is the aim of this essay.

Read the essay….

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Letter to a Young Man: Join the Secret World

04 Education, 10 Security, 11 Society, Cultural Intelligence, Ethics, Government, InfoOps (IO), Intelligence (government), IO Sense-Making, Military

Phi Beta Iota: A young man sought advice on whether to join the US secret intelligence world despite its many ethical issues and poor leadership.  Below is the answer as provided to us by Robert Steele, to whom the email was addressed.  The inquiring email is below the line.

To Anonymous:

This is simple.  Continue with your plans to apply for a position with the US Government in secret intelligence.  The easiest is via the military as an officer, and frankly, I recommend that because it gives you a unique grounding as a young leader, an understanding of the military mind-set, world travel, etcetera.  Joining CIA directly if they take you (they are moderately desperate) has its prospects, but on balance, I would recommend that you invest four years as an officer on active duty, followed by four to eight years at CIA.  Treat it as FUN, and a reality learning experience.

As simply as possible, as bad as they are, there is no substitute for the real experience and it is a privilege to work in secret intelligence, completely irrespective of how unethical and reality stupid its leaders might be.

I do NOT recommend the FBI, nor do I recommend the private sector.  Think in terms of a 30-40 year career.  Getting the clearances is much easier if you go in to government first, and they are worth $20K a year above and beyond normal salaries, should you choose to stay in the secret world.

Two key points:

1)  One day we will create a Smart Nation, and those who fully understand both the benefits and the pathologies of secret intelligence will have an important role to play.

2)  If you keep your own integrity, and treat this as a learning and observation experience, the loss of integrity by the US intelligence community leaders should not dissuade you from undertaking what is sure to be one of the most satisfying experiences of your life.  Illusions and pathologies aside, secret intelligence is as cool as it gets, you will learn a great deal, and it will make you stronger for the future.

Happy to answer any additional questions.  As long as you keep it in perspective, if you can get in, you should.

Semper Fidelis,
Robert

Continue reading “Letter to a Young Man: Join the Secret World”

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George Soros Remaking the OLD Global Economy NEW: Clyde Prestowitz in Favor with Reasons

07 Other Atrocities, Commerce, Commercial Intelligence, Corporations, Corruption, IO Sense-Making, Methods & Process, Misinformation & Propaganda, Money, Banks & Concentrated Wealth, Power Behind-the-Scenes/Special Interests

George Soros

Why Are the Media Ignoring Plans By George Soros to Remake the Entire Global Economy?

By Dan Gainor 

Published March 23, 2011

FoxNews.com

Two years ago, George Soros said he wanted to reorganize the entire global economic system. In two short weeks, he is going to start – and no one seems to have noticed.

On April 8, a group he’s funded with $50 million is holding a major economic conference and Soros’s goal for such an event is to “establish new international rules” and “reform the currency system.” It’s all according to a plan laid out in a Nov. 4, 2009, Soros op-ed calling for “a grand bargain that rearranges the entire financial order.”

Read more….

NEW: Clyde Prestowitz Comments

Continue reading “George Soros Remaking the OLD Global Economy NEW: Clyde Prestowitz in Favor with Reasons”

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Worth a Look: Global Voices

Advanced Cyber/IO, Civil Society, Collective Intelligence, IO Multinational, IO Sense-Making, Worth A Look
Click to Visit

Global Voices is a community of more than 300 bloggers and translators around the world who work together to bring you reports from blogs and citizen media everywhere, with emphasis on voices that are not ordinarily heard in international mainstream media.

About (Recommended–Works in 30 Languages)

Global Voices seeks to aggregate, curate, and amplify the global conversation online – shining light on places and people other media often ignore. We work to develop tools, institutions and relationships that will help all voices, everywhere, to be heard.

Tip of the Hat to Mario Profaca at Facebook.

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Mother Jones: Who Screwed the Middle Class?

03 Economy, Commerce, Commercial Intelligence, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, IO Sense-Making

Who Screwed the Middle Class?

— By Kevin Drum

| Fri Mar. 25, 2011 3:00 AM PDT

EXTRACT:  A lot has happened over the past 30 years, but if you're looking for a single political sea change that's had the biggest impact on middle class wages—more important than union decline, more important than NAFTA, more important than the end of Glass-Steagall—it's the political consensus that underlies the Fed's reluctance to allow labor markets to stay tight enough to generate wage increases in the real economy. And it's something we're seeing all over again right now, as the DC chattering classes have almost unanimously decided that inflation is our real enemy right now, even though core inflation is running around 1% and unemployment is still near 9%.

This is a policy beloved of the business community, which prefers loose labor markets that keep wages low and executive compensation high, but it hasn't always been the Fed's policy and it's not written in stone that it has to be now. Tight labor markets and rising middle-class wages are, to a large extent, a choice we make. Politics took them away 30 years ago, and politics can return them to us if we want.

Worth a full read….

Continue reading “Mother Jones: Who Screwed the Middle Class?”