Nine key factors are examined by BGen McMaster in his talk to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI). Answers question on why we were so unprepared. Final paragraph of trip report:
Can’t get much from a database and IT networks, but contractors keep pushing and we keep buying. But what really need is experts from anywhere, context, and also need to ask the soldiers! Make Phebe Marr a general! Also pay attention to: Charles Tripp, R. Kadeiri, Sarah Chayes, Barnett R. Rubin and Ahmed Rashid, Michael Howard, Frontline piece on Children of the Taliban, Fariad Ali Han on borders. Educate analysts (and self-educate) on the place, don’t waste time training them on the process.
The decision downgrades China from “Priority 1” status, alongside Iran and North Korea, to “Priority 2,” which covers specific events such as the humanitarian crisis after the Haitian earthquake or tensions between India and Pakistan.
One new area that has been given a higher intelligence priority under the Obama administration is intelligence collection on climate change, a nontraditional mission marginally linked to national security. The CIA recently announced that it had set up a center to study the impact of climate change.
Phi Beta Iota: The priorities are primarily influential on collection by the National Security Agency (NSA), determining whether the “system” stays on Beijing or goes to Central Asia instead, and this is probably the heart of the matter. HOWEVER, in combination with the DoD concerns that CIA is totally ineffective with respect to China, Afghanistan, or anything else of immediate concern (e.g. Somalia, Sudan, Yemen), and the idiocy of creating a Climate Change Center rather than restructuring to attack all ten high-level threats to humanity, this latest “theater” must be labeled for what it is–naked Emperors parading their very expensive rags. CIA is an utter travesty in all respects. The DNI is treading water for lack of vision, understanding, authority, and the will to confront “the system.” DoD is not much better–paper-pushing stuffed shirts and politically-correct uniforms disconnected from ground truth and the real needs of policy directors, acquisition managers, and operational commanders down to the company level. Not pretty at all.
Turkey-Israel: Turkey and Israel no longer have the same strategic closeness as in the past, although some common strategic issues continue, Israeli military intelligence chief Amos Yadlin said today and Ynet reported. Speaking to members of the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Yadlin said Turkey no longer needs strategic closeness with Israel. Turkey is moving from a secular approach to what he called a “radical direction,” an apparent reference to Turkey’s outreach to Islamic states, including Iran, Lebanon and Syria.
Sudan: President Omar al Bashir said today that his government would accept secession by the southern Sudanese, provided the southerners voted for independence in a referendum next year.
Speaking at a ceremony marking five years since the end of the north-south war, he said his Northern Congress Party did not want the south to secede, but said the party would be the first to welcome such a decision. This is an unusually conciliatory tone considering that much of Sudan’s oil wealth is in southern Sudan.
In response the president of Southern Sudan, Salva Kirri, said “The north and south will continue to be economically and politically connected whatever the choice of the people of Southern Sudan.,”
Comment: it is difficult to accept Bashir’s promises at face value and the date for a referendum has not yet been announced.
My friends who served in the military speak of the pride with they performed what they viewed as their duty. This duty included the obligation to act with honor, including, above all, following the Geneva Conventions when handling detainees and prisoners of war. My friends tell sadly of the despair they felt in seeing this obligation shredded during the Bush administration as word came down that they should do “whatever it takes.” Some of them resigned in disgust. Others resisted what they viewed as moral decay from within.
A new story by attorney Scott Horton at Harpers reveals yet another very disturbing episode of dishonor. Horton reveals strong credible evidence that three alleged “suicides” at Guantanamo in June 2006 were really homicides. The official story is that during the night of June 9, 2006, three prisoners were found hanging in their cells in Alpha Block of Guantanamo's Camp 1.
1) US Intelligence Community does not actually “know” where Iran is on nuclear, where Yemen is on Al Qaeda, where the Taliban is on Afghanistan….the list is long.
2) CIA and DoJ ares out of control on assessments and investigations–or they are consistently politicized. One or the other, which is it?
3) Terrorism is still the crutch for those unable or unwilling to comprehend Grand Strategy and a more mature appreciation for all of the threats, all of the policies, all of the information, all of the time. The USA remains government by uninformed sound-bite.
4) India matters, so we are told, as a recipient of expensive U.S. war-fighting technology and as a partner against terrorism. Never mind the deeply shared problem of poverty in America and India, a problem quickly addressable by the redirection of a fraction of the Pentagon budget toward “peaceful preventive measures.”
Herewith, then, is an all-inclusive guide to the scandal of the New Black Panther Party voter-intimidation case, based largely on documents unearthed by The Washington Times, along with other original reporting – and why it is important:
The FBI illegally collected more than 2,000 U.S. telephone call records between 2002 and 2006 by invoking terrorism emergencies that did not exist or simply persuading phone companies to provide records, according to internal bureau memos and interviews. FBI officials issued approvals after the fact to justify their actions.
The Christmas Day episode highlights three critical points. First is how much progress U.S. intelligence has made. . . . Second, the Christmas Day plot demonstrates that much of what passes for security is a waste of time and money. . . . Third, the public furor over the foiled plot shows that more perspective on terrorism is essential.
Rep. Peter Hoekstra, Michigan Republican and ranking member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, said in an interview that “they wrote a political document in 2007 to embarrass President Bush which everyone uniformly agrees was a piece of trash.”
That said, there are still more opportunities for closer cooperation that will allow us to share technology and increase the flow of information and expertise. . . . Perhaps the greatest common challenge India and the United States face is terrorism.
NIGHTWATCH Afghanistan: Multiple news services reported today’s bold Afghan Taliban attacks in Kabul. The coordinated multiple attacks killed at least 15 and injured 62, as reported in this Watch
Four militants also were killed, including two suicide bombers who detonated their explosives, and Afghan forces were searching several other areas in the city for more attackers, a government spokesman said.
It was the biggest attack in the capital since 28 October when gunmen with automatic weapons and suicide vests stormed a guest house used by U.N. staff, killing at least 11 people including three U.N. staff.
The attack coincided with the investiture of those Cabinet members in the Karzai government who had been confirmed by the Parliament. A majority of his choices have been rejected twice.
Blackwater/XE behind terrorist bombings in Asia and Africa?
ByWayne Madsen Online Journal Contributing Writer
Jan 18, 2010, 00:25
WMR’s intelligence sources in Asia and Europe are reporting that the CIA contractor firm XE Services, formerly Blackwater, has been carrying out “false flag” terrorist attacks in Afghanistan, Somalia, the Sinkiang region of China, Pakistan, Iran, and Iraq, in some cases with the assistance of Israeli Mossad and Indian Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) personnel.
Fingers are being pointed at Blackwater/XE and Mossad operatives for the motorbike bomb in Tehran that killed Tehran University nuclear physicist Dr. Moussad Ali-Mohammadi.
Gen Richards' views come ahead of a defence review and potential cuts
A “radical” shift in defence spending is needed, the head of the British army has said.
General Sir David Richards said priority should be given to troops working on the ground on winning over hearts and minds.
He told the International Institute for Strategic Studies there was too much emphasis on cutting-edge technology and not enough on cheaper troops and staff.
The UK was behind its enemies in being prepared for modern warfare, he added.
‘Minds of millions'
Gen Richards said current and future conflicts would focus on using communication to drum up support and would need more British troops to work among populations such as that in Afghanistan.
In his speech in London, he said: “If one equips more for this type of conflict while significantly reducing investment in higher-end war-fighting capability, suddenly one can buy an impressive amount of ‘kit'.
The United States attorney in Manhattan is merging the two units in his office that prosecute terrorism and international narcotics cases, saying that he wants to focus more on extremist Islamic groups whose members he believes are increasingly turning to the drug trade to finance their activities.
