Who’s Who in Public Intelligence: Carol Dumaine

Alpha A-D, Global Futures Partnership, Policy, Public Intelligence, Reform
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Ms. Carol Dumaine is one of a very small number of individuals who have sought to pursue what Gifford Pinchot calls “intrapreneurship,” but on a global scale.

She first came to international attention when she pioneered Global Futures Partnership, an analytic endeavor seeking to enhance outreach and cross-fertilization across varied communities of practice.

She received the following recognition from the emergent M4IS2 community in 2002:

Global Futures Partnership, Central Intelligence Agency
OSS ’02: 21st Century Emerging Leadership Award. Global Futures Partnership, Central Intelligence Agency. Under the leadership of Carol Dumaine with her extraordinary vision, the Global Futures Partnership has created strategic learning forums bringing the rich perspectives of the outside world into the classified environment in a manner never before attempted. This official but revolutionary endeavor nurtures an outside-in channel for integrating a diversity of perspectives. It is a vanguard toward a future in which the lines between national and global intelligence, and between governmental and nongovernmental intelligence, are blurred into extinction.

She is interested in the areas of “knowledge ecosystems,” “ecologies of innovation,” and “collective intelligence” for applicable models, practices and theories which may be useful to prototyping a new capacity for “strategic intelligence” in energy and environmental security.

Carol Dumaine is a graduate of Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service and has a Master’s degree from Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies.

On the left is her May 2009 presentation to the International Security Forum in Geneva, and on the right, a March 2009 presentation at the Institute for Environmental Security of the Brookings Institute.

Carol Dumaine Geneva May 2009
Carol Dumaine Geneva May 2009
Carol Dumaine, March 2009, Brookings
Carol Dumaine, March 2009, Brookings

 

See Also at Phi Beta Iota:

Reference: 2010 Global Foresight Commons

Search: “global futures partnership” 2010

2009 Dumain Geneva Common Security Uncommon Challenges

2009 Carol Dumaine: New Security Challenges

2006 HBK Carole Dumaine Global Futures Partnership “Are You Ready”

2004 New Frontiers in Intelligence Analysis (Global Futures Partnership and Gino Germani Center)

2002 Global Futures Partnership–Vision of Lasting Value

Reference: Global Futures Partnership “Are You Ready”

External Links of Note

Carol Dumaine – Energy and Environment in a 21st Century Security Framework

Gov 2.0 Summit 09: Carol Dumaine, “Rapid Fire: Setting the Stage” repaired 24Sep 2012

Plan To Aid National Security (2008)

Top Hits

See Also:

Congressman James Moran Honors Carol Dumaine

Journal: LEXIS-NEXIS OSINT Kiss to CIA/OSC

Monograph: The U.S. Intelligence Community and Foreign Policy Getting Analysis Right

Reference: Italian Ministry of Defense Briefings

Reference: UnityNet — an M4IS2 Option

Search: The Future of OSINT [is M4IS2-Multinational]

Virtual President Announces Coalition Cabinet

Search: “global futures partnership” 2010

Collaboration Zones, Communities of Practice

Thank you for this search.  We select and respond to searches for two reasons:

1.  80% of the knowledge is not published, the searches allow us to provide some form of response.

2.  We discover other cool stuff while checking the larger web, and that helps us learn.

Global Futures Partnership (GFP) is now and will forever be centered on Carol Dumaine, one of two CIA employees still standing that we think the world of–the other is Andy Shepard.  There are no doubt a handful of others that merit special regard, but they have been locked in the closet with socks in their mouths so they are unknown to us.

Continue reading “Search: “global futures partnership” 2010″

Journal: LEXIS-NEXIS OSINT Kiss to CIA/OSC

Commerce, Corruption, Government, IO Impotency

 

Full Story Online

More Than Espionage: Open-source intelligence should be part of solution

 

Washington Times   January 27, 2010    Pg. B3

By Andrew M. Borene

Here’s some food for thought: White House policymakers and Congress can help develop an increasingly robust national intelligence capacity by investing new money in the pursuit of a centralized open-source intelligence (OSINT) infrastructure.

Phi Beta Iota: In 1992 it was the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and The MITRE Corporation that destroyed the emergent Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) movement.  CIA refused to deal with OSINT unless everyone associated with it was a U.S. citizen with a SECRET clearance (we do not make this stuff up), and MITRE misled the US Government in such a way as to promote their Open Source Information System (OSIS) that ended up providing analysts mediocre high-side access to six open sources (LEXIS-NEXIS, Oxford Analytics, Jane’s Information Group, Predicast and two other non-memorable sources).  The US Marine Corps, which was the proponent for OSINT based on the lessons learned in creating the Marine Corps Intelligence Center (MCIC), argued for an outside the wire center of excellence that would have access to all sources in all languages (in part because the “experts” flogged by contracting firms may have been expert once, but are not “the” expert on any given topic for any given day–for that we prize European and Chinese and Latin American graduate students about to receive their PhD).

During his tenure as Director of the Community Open Source Program Office (COSPO), Dr. Joe Markowitz, the only person ever to actually understand OSINT within CIA, closely followed by Carol Dumaine, founder of the Global Futures Partership, tried four years in a row, with the support of Charlie Allen, then Deputy Director for Collection (DDCI/C), to get an OSINT program line established.  Four years in a row, Joan Dempsey, then Deputy Director for Community Management (DDCI/CM) refused.  The secret IC is incapable of creating an Open Source Agency (OSA) as called for by the 9-11 Commission, and any money it puts in that direction will be wasted unless the Simmons-Steele-Markowitz recommendations briefed to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) are respected.

Dr. Markowitz is also the author of the OSINT portions of vital Defense Science Board reports such as Transitions to and from Hostilities, and is unique within the CIA alumni for understanding both the needs of defense and the possibilities of OSINT.  COSPO was an honest effort–CIA/OSC is not.

CIA and LEXIS-NEXIS still do not get it–they both want a monopoly on a discicpline they do not understand and cannot monopolize.  The US Government is a BENEFICIARY of OSINT, not its patron, and any endeavor that is not outside the wire, transparent, and under diplomatic and civil affairs auspices, is destined to fail, just as CIA/OSC has failed all these years, just as LEXIS-NEXIS, Oxford Analytica, and Jane’s Information Group have failed on substance all these years.    They profit from government ignorance, they do not profit from actually connecting the government to sources that are largely free, not online, and not in English.

Continue reading “Journal: LEXIS-NEXIS OSINT Kiss to CIA/OSC”

Search: The Future of OSINT [is M4IS2-Multinational]

Analysis, Budgets & Funding, Collaboration Zones, Communities of Practice, Ethics, InfoOps (IO), Key Players, Methods & Process, Mobile, Policies, Policy, Real Time, Reform, Searches, Strategy, Technologies, Threats, Tools
COIN20 Trip Report
Paradise Found

The future of OSINT is M4IS2.

The future of Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) is Multinational, Multifunctional, Multidisciplinary, Multidomain Information-Sharing & Sense-Making (M4IS2).

The following, subject to the approval of Executive and Congressional leadership, are suggested hueristics (rules of thumb):

Rule 1: All Open Source Information (OSIF) goes directly to the high side (multinational top secret) the instant it is received at any level by any civilian or military element responsive to global OSINT grid.  This includes all of the contextual agency and mission specific information from the civilian elements previously stove-piped or disgarded, not only within the US, but ultimately within all 90+ participating nations.

Rule 2: In return for Rule 1, the US IC agrees that the Department of State (and within DoD, Civil Affairs) is the proponent outside the wire, and the sharing of all OSIF originating outside the US IC is at the discretion of State/Civil Affairs without secret world caveat or constraint.  OSIF collected by US IC elements is NOT included in this warrant.

Continue reading “Search: The Future of OSINT [is M4IS2-Multinational]”

Monograph: The U.S. Intelligence Community and Foreign Policy Getting Analysis Right

Analysis, Monographs
Free Online
Free Online

This monograph by Dr. Kenneth Lieberthal, a PDF of 81 pages, is just out (September 2009) from the China Center of the Brookings Institute.  In its area of specific focus, getting analysis right, it is a solid B+, short of an A because it continues the unilateralist mind-set that eschews both full engagement with the other seven tribes of intelligence, and with multinational governments, corporations, and non-profit organizations that do not wish to share secrets but are willing to share substantive knowledge.

Continue reading “Monograph: The U.S. Intelligence Community and Foreign Policy Getting Analysis Right”

Review: Assessing the Tradecraft of Intelligence Analysis

3 Star, Intelligence (Government/Secret), Intelligence (Public)

TradecraftDisappointing, Some Value, October 22, 2008

Gregory F. Treverton

There are six (6) pages in this work that held my attention: pages 11-12 (Table 2.2 Analytic Concerns, by Frequency of Mention); page 14 (Figure 3.1, A Pyramid of Analytic Tasks); page 20 (Table 3.1, Wide Range of Analytical Tools and Skills Required); page 34 (Figure 5.1, Intelligence Analysis and Information Types), and page 35 (Table 5.1, Changing Tradecraft Characteristics). Print them off from the free PDF copy online (search for title).

My first review allotted two stars, on the second complete reading I decided that was a tad harsh because I *did* go through it twice, so I now raise it to three stars largely because pages 11-12 were interesting enough to warrant an hour of my time (see below). This work reinvents the wheel from 1986, 1988, 1992, etcetera, but the primary author is clearly ignorant of all that has happened before, and the senior author did not bother to bring him up to speed (I know Greg Treverton knows this stuff).

Among many other flaws, this light once over failed to do even the most cursory of either literature or unclassified agency publication (not even the party line rag, Studies in Intelligence). Any book on this topic that is clueless about Jack Davis and his collected memoranda on analytic tradecraft, or Diane Webb and her utterly brilliant definition of Computer Aided Tools for the Analysis of Science and Technology (CATALYST), is not worthy of being read by an all-source professional. I would also have expected Ruth Davis and Carol Dumaine to be mentioned here, but the lack of attribution is clearly a lack of awareness that I find very disturbing.

I looked over the bibliography carefully, and it confirmed my evaluation. This is another indication that RAND (a “think tank”) is getting very lazy and losing its analytic edge. In this day and age of online bibliography citation, the paucity of serious references in this work is troubling (I wax diplomatic).

Here are ten books–only one of mine (and all seven of mine are free online as well as at Amazon):

Informing Statecraft
Bombs, Bugs, Drugs, and Thugs: Intelligence and America’s Quest for Security
Best Truth: Intelligence in the Information Age
Early Warning: Using Competitive Intelligence to Anticipate Market Shifts, Control Risk, and Create Powerful Strategies
The Art and Science of Business Intelligence Analysis (Advances in Applied Business Strategy,)
Analysis Without Paralysis: 10 Tools to Make Better Strategic Decisions
Strategic and Competitive Analysis: Methods and Techniques for Analyzing Business Competition
Lost Promise
Still Broken: A Recruit’s Inside Account of Intelligence Failures, from Baghdad to the Pentagon
The New Craft of Intelligence: Personal, Public, & Political–Citizen’s Action Handbook for Fighting Terrorism, Genocide, Disease, Toxic Bombs, & Corruption.

On the latter, look for “New Rules for the New Craft of Intelligence” that is free online as a separate document. Both Davis and Webb can be found online because I put them there in PDF form.

The one thing in this book that was useful, but badly presented, was the table of analyst concerns across nine issues that did not include tangible resources, multinational sense-making, or access to NSA OSINT.

Below is my “remix” of the table to put it into more useful form:

54% Quality of Intelligence
54% Tools of intelligence/analysis
43% Staffing
43% Intra-Community collaboration and data sharing
41% Collection Issues
38% Evaluation
32% Targeting Analysis
30% Value

Above are the categories with totals (first initial below connects to above). The top four validate the DNI’s priorities and clearly need work.

32% T Targeting Analysis is important
30% V Redefine intelligence
30% Q Analysis too captive to current
30% To Directed R&D for analytic technology needed
27% T Targeting needs prioritization
27% S Analyst training important and insufficient
22% V Uniqueness
22% E PDB problematic as metric
22% To “Tools” of intelligence analysis are poor
22% To “Tools” limit analysis and limited by culture

The line items above are for me very significant. We still do priority based collection rather than gap-driven collection, something I raised on the FIRCAP and with Rick Shackleford in 1992. Our analysts (most of them less than 5 years in service) are clearly concerned about both a misdirection of collection and of analysis, and a lack of tools–this 22 years after Diane Webb identified the 18 needed functionalities and the Advanced Information Processing and Analysis Steering Group (AIPASG) found over 20 different *compartmented* projects, all with their own sweetheart vendor, trying to create “the” all-source fusion workstation.

19% C S&T underused, needs understanding
16% E Critical and needs improvement
14% E Assess performance qualitatively
14% Q Quality of analysis is a concern
14% Q Intelligence focus too narrow
14% S Language, culture, regional are big weaknesses
11% A Leadership
11% L Must be improved
11% Q Problem centric vice regional
11% Q Global coverage is important
11% C Open source critical, need new sources
11% I Lack of leadership and critical mass impair IC-wide
11% I IC information technology infrastructure needed
11% I Non-traditional source agencies need more input
8% V Unclear goals prevail
8% T Targetting analysis needs attn+
8% C Collection strategies/methods outdated
8% S Concern over lack of staff or surge capability
8% S Intelligence Community-wide curriculum desireable
8% I Should NOT pursue virtual wired network
8% I Security is a concern for virtual and sharing
5% E Evaluation not critical
5% Q Depth versus breadth an issue
5% Q Greater client context needed
5% C Law enforcement has high potential
5% S Analytic corps is highly trained better than ever
5% S Career track needs building
5% I Stovepiping is a problem, need more X-community
5% I Should pursue virtual organization and wired network
3% V Newsworthy not intelligence
3% L Radical transformation needed
3% E Metrics are not needed
3% E Evaluation is negative
3% E Audits are difficult
3% Q Long term shortfalls overstated
3% Q Global coverage too difficult
3% T Targeting can be left to collectors
3% C All source materially lacking
3% C Need to guard against evidence addiction
3% C Need to take into account “feedback”
3% S Should train stovepipe analysts not IC analysts
3% S Language and cultural a strength

For the rest, not now, but three at the bottom trouble me: the analysts do not have the appreciation for feedback; they do not understand how lacking they are in sources; and they don’t know enough to realize that radical transformation is needed.

On balance, I found this book annoying, but two pages ultimately provocative.

Congressman James Moran Honors Carol Dumaine

Knowledge
Carol Dumaine
[Congressional Record Volume 153, Number 98 (Monday, June 18, 2007)]
[Extensions of Remarks]  

[Pages E1326-E1327]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Printing Office [www.gpo.gov]

 

RECOGNIZING THE ACCOMPLISHMENT OF CAROL DUMAINE

______

HON. JAMES P. MORAN

of Virginia in the House of Representatives

Monday, June 18, 2007

Mr. MORAN of Virginia. Madam Speaker, I rise today to honor the accomplishment of Ms. Carol Dumaine, of Reston, Virginia, and a proud member of our civil service. Ms. Dumaine, an employee of the Central Intelligence Agency, has contributed to our Nation’s future security through the establishment of the Global Futures Forum (GFF), a highly innovative think tank which coordinates international expertise to enhance intelligence analysis.

As the 9/11 Commission confirmed, intelligence and law enforcement officials had uncovered a number of warning signs that a terrorist attack on U.S. soil was imminent, but the failure to recognize the links between the intelligence precluded authorities from stopping the attacks. Ms. Dumaine has created a forum which allows for more thorough intelligence analysis from a cadre of outside experts. Global Futures Forum (GFF) unites intelligence experts from different nations with professionals from diverse fields so that emerging issues can be recognized quickly and collectively addressed. The GFF reviews intelligence in the public domain and promotes open, interactive linkages to knowledge and insight that exists outside of traditional security organizations.

GFF delegates represent the wide spectrum of intelligence and security organizations, multilateral institutions, academia and non-
government personnel from more than 30 nations. A series of forums in 2005 and 2006 brought these experts together to work face-to-face, providing them with an opportunity to strengthen international partnerships and to share knowledge about global security challenges. To ensure that partners would have opportunities to collaborate outside of the conferences, Ms. Dumaine created the GFF website to provide a constant means of collaboration, allowing GFF partners to share their latest thoughts, research and analysis through their own interactive blogs or chats with other participants. Her work ensures that the dialogue fostered by the GFF never really ends.

Ms. Dumaine created a global community that increases exposure to diverse perspectives and catalyzes discussion on adapting intelligence organizations to address nontraditional challenges. These partnerships created through Ms. Dumaine’s effort will help ensure that potential security threats will be handled properly, allowing for the best response possible. For her great contribution to the intelligence community, she has been selected as a finalist for the Partnership for Public Service’s “National Security Medal”.

Madam Speaker, I commend Ms. Dumaine for her leadership, and I am proud to have her live in Virginia’s 8th Congressional District as she contributes to the greatest civil service in the world. I wish her all the best in her future endeavors.

____________________

See Also:

Who’s Who in Public Intelligence: Carol Dumaine

2004 New Frontiers in Intelligence Analysis (Global Futures Partnership and Gino Germani Center)

Global Futures Partnership

For the convenience of the authors and readers, the entire book is provided here, and the individual chapters are also provided for ease of isolation, exploitation, and sharing, with the kind permission of co-sponsor and co-editor Carol Dumaine, one of the visionary leaders in the U.S. Intelligence Community.

New Frontiers
New Frontiers

Reference: Italian Ministry of Defense Briefings

Analysis, Budgets & Funding, Collaboration Zones, Communities of Practice, DoD, Ethics, Key Players, Methods & Process, Policy, Reform, Strategy, Threats, Tools

These briefings were commissioned by the Ministry of Defense in Italy and delivered over two days with independent official briefings from Carol Dumaine, then the active leader of the Global Futures Partnership Initiative (GFP).

2002 FAILURE of 20th Century Intelligence

2004 The Failure of 20th Century Intelligence (Updated 2006)

2004 COLLECTION: Know Who Knows

2004 PROCESSING: Make the Most of What You Know

2004 ANALYSIS: All-Source Analysis, Making Magic

2004 NEW RULES for the New Craft of Intelligence

2002 Global Futures Partnership–Vision of Lasting Value

Analysis, Communities of Practice, Cultural Intelligence, Global Futures Partnership, Historic Contributions, Methods & Process, Peace Intelligence

The Global Futures Partnership (GFP) is a strategic “think and do tank” that undertakes unclassified global outreach for CIA and other Intelligence Community elements on the most important issues facing the intelligence community today and in coming years. It conceptualizes and implements interdisciplinary and multi-organizational projects on key intelligence issues with leading thinkers from academia, business, strategy, and intelligence consultants.

Below is the citation for the award given to the visionary, founder, and core catalyst within the GFP, followed by two CIA seals: the one on the left leads to the pro forma page on GFP, sadly not offering access to its unclassified and often brilliant productions over the past several years, and the one on the left offers a link to a presentation on “Meeting 21st Century Transnational Challenges: Building a Global Intelligence Paradigm” by Roger George, possibly the most tangible evidence of GFP’s influence on CIA’s leadership.

OSS ’02: 21st Century Emerging Leadership Award. Global Futures Partnership, Central Intelligence Agency. Under the leadership of Carol Dumaine with her extraordinary vision, the Global Futures Partnership has created strategic learning forums bringing the rich perspectives of the outside world into the classified environment in a manner never before attempted. This official but revolutionary endeavor nurtures an outside-in channel for integrating a diversity of perspectives. It is a vanguard toward a future in which the lines between national and global intelligence, and between governmental and nongovernmental intelligence, are blurred into extinction.

Global Futures Partnership
Global Futures Partnership
Meeting 21st Century Transnational Challenges: Building a Global Intelligence Paradigm
Meeting 21st Century Transnational Challenges: Building a Global Intelligence Paradigm

The GFP is not to be confused with the Open Source Center (OSC).  The first is a visionary outreach elements that seeks to share information and achieve multi-national sense-making, in one instance working with up to 35 countries.  The OSC is a bureaucratic unit that classifies everything it creates and refuses to engage with any countries other than the standard English-speaking allies and a couple of others totalling eleven including the USA, Canada, the UK, Australia, you get the idea….

The CIA leadership never properly supported the GFP.  Its vision

2001 Dumaine (US) Global Futures Partnership “Are You Ready”

Collaboration Zones, Communities of Practice, Ethics, Global Futures Partnership, Historic Contributions, Key Players, Policies, Threats, Threats/Topical, Topics (All Other), UN/NGO
Full Source Online
Full Source Online

Carol Dumaine was for a few years allowed to manage an internal revoslution in intelligence affairs that ultimately failed, but left its mark.  She is still standing, and we expect to see her at the finish line when we finally do achieve a revolution in intelligence affairs and create both a Smart Nation and a World Brain.

Above, with a full title of Are You Ready?: Implications of a Changing Global Information Environment for Open Source Intelligence, was published in June 2001.  It remains a precious point of reference.

The internal revolution failed, Global Futures Partnership was transferred to the Department of State where it has been stuffed in a closet, and Carol Dumain marches on professionally.