Category: IO Sense-Making

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Russia Returns Heavy-Hitter to Afghanistan

02 Diplomacy, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 06 Russia, 08 Wild Cards, Advanced Cyber/IO, Ethics, Government, InfoOps (IO), IO Multinational, IO Sense-Making, Peace Intelligence, Strategy
DefDog Recommends...

Highlights a classic failure of US intel and State…..no experts with the
depth or contacts necessary to conduct statecraft…….

Mullah Omar gets a Russian visitor

By M K Bhadrakumar

Asia Times, Mar 24, 2011

EXTRACT:  The executive order makes the customary reference to the new appointee's worthy credentials as “an experienced diplomat and Orientalist”. And then, out of the blue, it adds that Kabulov “repeatedly held talks on the release of Russian pilots with the leadership of the Taliban in Kandahar, including [Taliban leader] Mohammed Omar”. There was no real need to have said that. It almost seems jarring to single out one mission in a distinguished diplomat's checkered career. But it said all that needed to be said.

By the language of the sport of cricket, one would shout from the crease in the heat of the moment: “Howzaat!” Is there an umpire nearby who could annotate the trajectory of Russian thinking? Not much ingenuity is needed to comprehend that Moscow is opening a line to the Taliban leadership and sending into the Hindu Kush someone who can meaningfully converse with the Quetta shura (council). Pakistanis know Kabulov, Iranians know him and Mullah Omar knows him. Afghan President Hamid Karzai knows him, too.

EXTRACT: Kabulov's mind is an open book – as far as a diplomat's mind can be. While serving in Kabul, he was an easily accessible ambassador and even American military commanders used to drop by to pick his brains. Kabulov's main complaint, though, was that the Americans were good listeners, but not good learners.

He kept harping on that the United States was repeating the same mistakes that the Soviet Union made in Afghanistan during its occupation in the 1980s, and to complicate matters, American policies have been innovating on Soviet mistakes by inventing original mistakes of their own for which as he once told John Burns of the New York Times, “We [Russia] do not own the copyright.”

Read full article….

Phi Beta Iota: The article is a reference work, worth keeping, worthy of war colleges and those who aspire to be great leaders.

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NIGHTWATCH on Bin Laden Sightings–Saudi PSYOP?

07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Terrorism, Analysis, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, InfoOps (IO), Intelligence (government), IO Multinational, IO Sense-Making, Misinformation & Propaganda

Troubling End Note: Asia Times Online on 24 March published an article by Syed Saleem Shahzad, who is an insightful commentator on South Asian affairs, as well as the publication's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He has studied al Qaida a long time.  He wrote that US intelligence has actionable information that Osama bin Laden has been “criss-crossing” the Pakistan – Afghanistan border region in northwestern Pakistan during the past few weeks.

Phi Beta Iota: Bin Laden sets alarm bells ringing By Syed Saleem Shahzad

Shahzad wrote that US officials are “stunned” by bin Laden's visibility and the frequency of his movements. Bin Laden's purposes are not known. Terrorist analysts reportedly think the new level of activity means bin Laden is planning another large attack, though the 9/11 planning was actually not done by bin Laden. The South Asia analysts think he is meeting with friendly Afghan warlords to bring the Afghan War to a favorable conclusion for the Taliban.

What is disturbing is how little mainstream media attention this article has received. Readers are encouraged to read it.

NIGHTWATCH KGS Home

Continue reading “NIGHTWATCH on Bin Laden Sightings–Saudi PSYOP?”

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Japan Lost Its Integrity over Nuclear Safety

03 Economy, 05 Energy, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Proliferation, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, Commerce, Corruption, Earth Intelligence, Government, IO Sense-Making
Chuck Spinney Recommends...

The below report in the Guardian makes three general points regarding the Tokyo Electric's management operations at the Fukushima Daiichi reactor site:

1. Cost-cutting degraded safety procedures.

2. Collusion between industry and regulators.

3. Deferring decisions on how to permanently store nuclear waste.

Thank god these problems do not occur in Amerika (sic).

Chuck Spinney

Japan Nuclear Firm Admits Missing Safety Checks at Disaster-Hit Plant

Documents show operator failed to carry out mandatory checks at Fukushima Daiichi and allowed fuel rods to pile up

by Justin McCurry in Osaka, The Guardian/UK, March 22, 2011

Read full article….

Phi Beta Iota: Integrity, or the lack of integrity, is the defining factor in the rise or fall of complex civilizations.  The harm coming from the lack of integrity by the members of the UN Security Council with respect to nuclear proliferation and safeguards for nuclear waste; the arms market (they are the largest traders), and the general disregard for poverty, infectious disease, and environmental degradation, makes it clear that “governance” today is totally corrupt.  The good news is that informed hybrid networks can overcome Industrial Era irresponsibilities.  Multinational information-sharing and multinational intelligence (decision-support) offers a non-violent way forward.

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Blocking the French, Too Little Too Late No Strategy

02 Diplomacy, 05 Energy, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Government, IO Sense-Making, Military, Peace Intelligence
Who, Me?

Libya, appears to me to be a US-UK venture, having little to do with Gaddafy. Rather, in significant part it is driven by the goal of squelching potential and logical French influence in the in the Middle East and its leadership in accommodating (establishing the terms of integration) Islam in Europe and the West.

Mr Malloch-Brown is one of the few legitimate contenders to Anglo statesmanship in this era. But I find the following to be misleading in trying to make the case that this was a worthy mission, but too hard to bring off diplomatically. I believe these to be talking points.

Mark Malloch-Brown: Diplomatic ‘triumph' at the UN is unravelling already

The Council might have begun by contemplating two clear political alternatives and then developing a military strategy that flowed from that choice

Independent UK, Tuesday 22 March 2011  Read article…

Phi Beta Iota: The sweeping public movements across North Africa and the Middle East are if anything an indictment of what one author calls the “fifty-year wound” and a validation of what another author calls the “unconquerable world.”  Vastly more benevolent strategic imperatives, such as Ambassador Mark Palmer's vision for providing all 44 dictators with an exit strategy (42 of them “best pals” of the USA at this time), have been ignored. 

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Garland On Oil, Energy, & Presidential Non-Sense

05 Energy, Collective Intelligence, Commerce, Commercial Intelligence, Earth Intelligence, Government, IO Sense-Making
Garland Robinette

Garland: “Pres. Obama, I too am exhausted defending you.”

What finally knocked me out of your camp was your speech last Friday…the one about energy. Let's break it down into specifics.

Read full article….

Phi Beta Iota: Worth a full read for two reasons:

1.  Demonstrates the non-sense a President can spout when his speeches are written based on the lack of coherent (holistic) open source intelligence within the US Government; and

2.  Raises the rather fascinating idea that those regions that refuse to permit alternative energy (e.g. windmills) or refineries or other elements of a national energy infrastructure in their backyards should be limited in their access to domestic energy from others.

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Climate Change as a Culture-Information Challenge

01 Agriculture, 03 Economy, 03 Environmental Degradation, 05 Energy, 07 Health, 11 Society, 12 Water, Earth Intelligence, IO Sense-Making, Key Players

Study Says Climate Debate Is Largely Cultural

SustainableBusiness.com News, 03/17/2011

While debate on climate change often strikes a caustic tone, the real impediment to meaningful dialogue is that the two sides often talk past each other in what amounts to a “logic schism,” says a University of Michigan researcher.

Read more….

Continue reading “Climate Change as a Culture-Information Challenge”

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Live Crisis Mapping: Routing Around Old Mindsets

03 Environmental Degradation, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, Analysis, Augmented Reality, Civil Society, Collective Intelligence, CrisisWatch reports, Ethics, InfoOps (IO), IO Mapping, IO Multinational, IO Sense-Making, Maps, Mobile, Real Time, Tools
Click for Live Map with Substance Links

OCHA, UNOSAT and NetHope have been collaborating with the Volunteer Technical Community (VTC) specifically CrisisMappers, Crisis Commons, Open Street Map, and the Google Crisis Response Team over the past week.

The CrisisMappers Standby Task Force has been undertaking a mapping of social media, news reports and official situation reports from within Libya and along the borders at the request of OCHA. The Task Force is also aiding in the collection and mapping of 3W information for the response. UNOSAT is kindly hosting the Common Operational Datasets to be used during the emergency. Interaction with these groups is being coordinated by OCHA’s Information Services Section.

The public version of this map does not include personal identifiers and does not include descriptions for the reports mapped. This restriction is for security reasons. All information included on this map is derived from information that is already publicly available online (see Sources tab).

Click for Live Map with Substance Links

In the midst of this transition in Libya, one of the most devastating earthquakes in centuries hit northern Japan, causing one of the most destructive tsunamis in recent memory. Just hours after the earthquake, a member of Japan's OpenStreetMap community launched a dedicated Crisis Map for the mega-disaster. A few hours later, Japanese students at The Fletcher School (which is where the Ushahidi-Haiti Crisis Map was launched) got in touch with the Tokyo-based OpenStreetMap team to provide round-the-clock crisis mapping support.

Over 4,000 reports have been mapped in just 6 days. That's an astounding figure. Put differently, that's over 600 reports per day, or one report almost every two minutes for 24 hours straight over 6 days. What's important about the Japan Crisis Map is that the core operations are being run directly from Tokyo and the team there is continuing to scale it's operations. It's very telling that the Tokyo team did not require any support from the Standby Volunteer Task Force. They're doing an excellent job in the midst of the biggest disaster they've ever faced. I'm just amazed.

Tip of the Hat to Patrick Meier and Team at iRevolution.