Officers Call – Page 163 – Public Intelligence Blog

This would be a great tool to determine the analytical capabilities of the IC….bet they would miss it….

The importance of “selection bias” in statistics

During WWII, statistician Abraham Wald was asked to help the British decide where to add armor to their bombers. After analyzing the records, he recommended adding more armor to the places where there was no damage!

This seems backward at first, but Wald realized his data came from bombers that survived. That is, the British were only able to analyze the bombers that returned to England; those that were shot down over enemy territory were not part of their sample. These bombers’ wounds showed where they could afford to be hit.

Said another way, the undamaged areas on the survivors showed where the lost planes must have been hit because the planes hit in those areas did not return from their missions.

selection bias — Click on Image to Enlarge

Phi Beta Iota: The US secret intelligence community is largely worthless, providing “at best” 4% of what the President or a major commander needs, and virtually nothing for everyone else. They keep doing the wrong thing righter, instead of the right thing. To do the right thing requires integrity. Go figure.

2010: Human Intelligence (HUMINT) Trilogy Updated

2011/09/222011/09/22

WInslow Wheeler: USAF Cost Over-Runs–DoD Micro-Look

03 Economy, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 07 Other Atrocities, 10 Security, 11 Society, Budgets & Funding, Corruption, DoD, Government, IO Deeds of War, Military, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence

WinslowWheeler Cropped — Winslow Wheeler

When a system is so slosh with money that it does not know what its costs are, it is time to take serious action. But what do you do when no one cares?

The US Air Force misreports, even to itself (and to Congress and OSD), the cost to operate and support its own aircraft. That is the bottom line of my recent attempt to uncover operating and support (O&S) costs for aircraft like the F-22 and the B-2.

It also gets more interesting: the official USAF data that are available show that, despite promises to the contrary, “stealth” aircraft are far, far more expensive to operate than the aging (and expensive to maintain) relics they are to replace. Moreover, the data that are available are very likely an understatement. Also, there are some other cost Queens in the USAF inventory; still others are hidden in the missing data.

The amounts of money involved are huge. Generally, O&S costs for aircraft are twice (very probably more) the cost to acquire them. For example, OSD predicts the $379 billion F-35 program will cost an additional $916 billion to operate and support. (However, the O&S number is a low-ball prediction.)

What is happening about this? Nothing.

These are some of the points in a 3,000 word study piece I recently completed. The piece, with a one page summary, follows below. It is also at the CDI website at , and you can also see journalists Colin Clark's take.

The text of the short study and its summary follows:

Continue reading “WInslow Wheeler: USAF Cost Over-Runs–DoD Micro-Look”

2011/09/21

Marcus Aurelius: US Intelligence Still Ignorant in Languages

04 Education, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Director of National Intelligence et al (IC), DoD, Government, IO Impotency, Methods & Process, Officers Call

Marcus-Aurelius-150x150 — Marcus Aurelius

Nothing changes….

US spy agencies ‘struggle with post-9/11 languages'

Despite intense focus on Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Middle East in the last decade, U.S. spy agencies are still lacking in language skills needed to talk to locals, translate intercepted intelligence and analyse data, according to top intelligence officials.

Telegraph, 20 September 2011

The Sept. 11, 2001, attacks prompted a major push for foreign language skills to track militants and trends in parts of the world that were not a Cold War priority.

But intelligence agencies have had to face the reality that the languages they need cannot be taught quickly, the street slang U.S. operatives and analysts require is not easy, and security concerns make the clearance process lengthy.

As recently as 2008 and 2009, intelligence officials were still issuing new directives and programs in the hopes of ramping up language capability.

“Language will continue to be a challenge for us,” Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said at a congressional hearing last week.

“It's something we're working at, and will continue to do so, but we're probably not where we want to be,” he said.

Phi Beta Iota: Languages are not hard–what is hard is the “leadership” culture incapable of leading. US citizens by birth are never going to learn foreign languages as needed. There are just TWO solutions, both executable today, all it takes is integrity at the top, long missing:

1. Exempt case officers and others “on the street” from the idiotic security clearance requirements. Hire to qualifications and manage to risk. This includes restoration of the “principle agent” category as well as the third-country subject-matter expert category. They never see secrets, they just do what they do, very well.

2. Adopt the Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) model of regional field stations in which multinational cadres of case officers and analysts are supported by US money and US technology. Again, they never see secrets and are firewalled during active ops.

See Also:

Graphic: Language Basics

Graphic: OSINT Multinational Outreach Network

Graphic: OSINT, We Went Wrong, Leaping Forward

Journal: Secret World Still Short on All Languages

Journal: Military says linguists can’t keep up in Afghanistan

2011/09/172011/10/22

Robert Steele: US Day of Rage = Electoral Reform & Integrity Plus General RECAP on Purple Public & Third Party Rising

03 Economy, 09 Justice, 11 Society, Civil Society, Collective Intelligence, Commerce, Corporations, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, IO Deeds of War, Law Enforcement, Misinformation & Propaganda, Money, Banks & Concentrated Wealth, Officers Call, Power Behind-the-Scenes/Special Interests, Threats

steele smiling final — Robert David STEELE Vivas

I've been driving the 1964 MGB (my last remaining possession, it needs $5,000 of underbody work to survive the winter) around New England and am in New York now. I've been following the US Day of Rage plans (they were also announced here) but have been surprised to find a number of normally intelligent middle-class men I have met along the way to be timid about the US Day of Rage movement. They cannot get past the name and of course never get to the part about non-violent demands for electoral reform and integrity.

So here is my short brief on US Day of Rage, perhaps it can help get past these perceptual barriers. I do recommend that US Day of Rage create an alternative web site, American for Electoral Integrity–kind of like the Silicon Valley Hackers Conference also calls itself the THINK Conference for the green eyeshade types without a clue. I'll be attending this year, 4-6 November in San Francisco area.

MEMORANDUM

Subject: US Day of Rage for the USA—Who, Why, What, When, Where, How

Date: 17 September 2011

IMPORTANCE: Understanding the US Day of Rage is vital to understanding the deeper mood of the public.

1. Who. US Day of Rage is an informal, social network based movement that started as a protest against Wall Street with a planned occupation today, and rapidly morphed into a cross-country network of mini-demonstrations. The “US Day of Rage” is being supported by internet groups who oppose corruption in the government such as Adbusters, Culture Jammers, and Anonymous. The original call to occupy Wall Street was put out by Adbusters, and the US Day of Rage and NYC General Assembly have since joined.

2. Why. Their capital demand is fair and free elections to overcome the special interest takeover of Congress and the Executive. Please note that there is real convergence and resonance between the Day of Rage network and the Tea Party/Sarah Palin remonstrations against “crony capitalism.”

Continue reading “Robert Steele: US Day of Rage = Electoral Reform & Integrity Plus General RECAP on Purple Public & Third Party Rising”

2011/09/17

Winslow Wheeler: Super Committee Crashing & Burning

03 Economy, 07 Other Atrocities, 09 Justice, 10 Security, 11 Society, Commerce, Corporations, Corruption, DoD, Government, IO Deeds of War, Military, Misinformation & Propaganda, Money, Banks & Concentrated Wealth, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence, Power Behind-the-Scenes/Special Interests

Not only is the Super Committee headed straight for failure, the “automatic” cuts that would happen in the Pentagon budget are not going to occur. To “save” the Pentagon budget from further cuts, it's doomsday for budget restraint in the short term. The only thing to be elevated for the longer term and foreseeable future is our political and governmental dysfunction.

Why Pentagon bloat will kill real deficit cutting

Congress has taken a hostage that no one wants to shoot

EXTRACT:

It is not going to happen that way.

First, the supercommittee is bound to fail; it will reach no meaningful budget agreement.

Second, when the committee fails, the defense cuts envisioned by the supposedly automatic trigger mechanism will not occur. That will be for the simple reason that almost no one wants that to happen. While they are quite mistaken about the consequences, almost everyone on Capitol Hill (and in the Pentagon) thinks that those defense reductions will be “devastating,” “disastrous,” “doomsday” and any other apocalyptic term you can think of.

In short, the debt deal took a hostage that no one wants to shoot.

. . . . .

That “frozen” 2011 level will be more than twice the combined defense budgets of China, Russia, Iran, Syria, Cuba and Somalia. It will be more than $80 billion more than we spent, on average, during the Cold War when we faced a threatening and heavily armed Soviet Union and a hostile, dogmatically communist China. In the absence of these two huge threats, we are now being told we need to spend more.

Read full article.

2011/09/17

DefDog: Defense Contractors Start the Big Lie Again–Jobs PLUS Winslow Wheeler Defense Budget Facts RECAP

03 Economy, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 07 Other Atrocities, 09 Justice, 10 Security, 10 Transnational Crime, 11 Society, Corporations, Corruption, DoD, Military, Money, Banks & Concentrated Wealth, Officers Call, Politics of Science & Science of Politics, Power Behind-the-Scenes/Special Interests

More lies…big ones.

Defense contractors launch campaign to end military spending cuts

Los Angeles Times, September 14, 2011

Seeking to whip up public support for what’s expected to be a hard-fought budget battle in Congress, a group of defense contractors launched a lobbying campaign urging an end to cuts in military spending.

The campaign, named Second to None, was introduced by the Aerospace Industries Assn. trade group Wednesday at the National Press Club in Washington. The group, which represents manufacturers and suppliers of aircraft, space systems and engines, warned of potential job losses and national security risks.

“While we do have a fancy logo, this campaign will not be your typical, glitzy, short term inside the Beltway blitz of advertising followed by deafening silence after one piece of legislation or another is finalized,” said Marion Blakey, chief executive of the association. “This will be a sustained effort, in states, cities and towns, as well as in Washington, to caution the American people and our leaders of risks associated with cutting defense further.”

According to the association, aerospace and defense supports 1 million direct jobs in the U.S. and affects another 2.9 million indirect jobs.

Read full article.

Phi Beta Iota: The defense contractors are not being honest. As Winslow Wheeler and others have documented, most of the defense dollars go into overhead and out-sourcing. Just as it is costing us $50 million per Taliban in a body bag, here these maliciously deception people are suggesting that the $1 trillion a year for defense and homeland “security” will protect one million jobs. Do the math–at a time when 22% of workers are unemployed, with more on the way once the federal government starts taking cuts, this is not just idiocy, it is treason. We NEED to cut defense, homeland “security,” and secret intelligence SHARPLY–while providing all those cut with a year's termination pay–to achieve the savings necessary to “reset” the economy including full salary training for every unemployed person in America.

2011/09/172011/09/17

David Isenberg: The Cost-Savings Fantasy (Corruption) of Using Private Military Contractors

03 Economy, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 09 Justice, 10 Security, 10 Transnational Crime, 11 Society, Commerce, Corruption, Government, Military, Officers Call

The Cost-Savings Fantasy

David Isenberg

Huffington Post, 9/15/2011

Sometimes it is difficult to decide what to write about in the world of private military and security contracting issues, as there are usually a few different stories in the news on any given day that are relevant.

Today, however, I don't have that problem as there is clearly only one story worth discussing. That is the report issued yesterday by the Project on Government Oversight (POGO) comparing federal and private sector employee compensation.

Full disclosure alert: back in the eighties I worked a year at POGO's predecessor organization, the Project on Military Procurement, and earlier this year POGO published a report I co-wrote

To appreciate the importance of this report keep in mind that one of the biggest talking points of PMSC advocates is that the virtue of using them is that they are cheaper than using full time government employees and that private sector rates are cheaper than government salaries. That is because they can be hired just for the task/mission, don't have to be paid pensions and other benefits, et cetera. As talking points go it's a good one and seemingly difficult to dispute; although when it comes to using private military and security contractors in the field there has not yet been much in the way of methodologically sound, peer reviewed evidence to support it.

So POGO decided to fill the data gap, or lacuna, as an academic would say. It compared total annual compensation for federal and private sector employees with federal contractor billing rates in order to determine whether the current costs of federal service contracting serves the public interest.

What its report, Bad Business: Billions of Taxpayer Dollars Wasted on Hiring Contractors, found was:

Continue reading “David Isenberg: The Cost-Savings Fantasy (Corruption) of Using Private Military Contractors”

Category: Officers Call

DefDog: The Importance of Selection Bias in Statistics