NIGHTWATCH Extract: China Wages Peace with Railroads Across Pakistan and Into Afghanistan

02 China, 03 India, 08 Wild Cards, Commercial Intelligence, Peace Intelligence

India: Minister of State for Defense M. M. Pallam Raju on 7 July said India is concerned about China's plans to build a rail link with Pakistan through the Karakoram mountain range, The Times of India reported. He said India is planning to take countermeasures against the proposed link.

Comment: This is one of four strategically significant rail projects in Asia. All are important in the UN master plan for Asian railroads, but several stand out.

The first is the Chinese project to build a railroad line in Afghanistan that runs southward from the Oxus River to China's Aynak Copper Mine in Logar Province. This is one of the largest, if not the largest, copper deposit in the world. Eventually it could become the leading edge of mineral extraction projects that could transform Afghanistan a generation from now, if security conditions permit.

The second project is the Iranian railroad to Herat, in western Afghanistan. This is moving ahead slowly, but follows a hard road already built by the Iranians. It will tie relatively quiet Herat and western Afghanistan to the economic market area of Mashhad, Iran's second largest city, when completed.

The third rail project with strategic significance is in North Korea, which has two sub-projects that can complete the link of Europe by rail to Japan. Completion of these long delayed spurs depend on whether whoever runs anything in North Korea ever gets a sound grip on their own economic best interests and permit upgrades to the Chinese and to the Russian spurs that run across the Demilitarized Zone and link to the South Korean rail systems that terminate at Pusan. A ferry ride across the Tsushima Strait links to Japan railroads and Tokyo. London to Tokyo by rail is in sight, if the North Koreans would only decide to become prosperous.

The latest project is that announced for Pakistan. In the 1971 general war with India, only Chinese truck convoys through the Karakoram Mountains via the Khunjerab Pass kept Pakistan in the war for the two weeks it actually fought before suing for peace and losing East Pakistan.

The Khunjerab Pass is the highest elevation paved international border at 15,400 ft above sea level. The railroad would presumably follow the Karakoram Highway, which is the highest paved road in the world.

A rail link through those mountains and that pass would link Xinjiang, China, to Karachi and Gwadar – the Chinese built port in southwestern Pakistan on the Indian Ocean — via the Pakistani rail system. The throughput capacity would be exponentially larger than that achievable by truck convoys.

This railroad will create a new market system. No wonder India is concerned, economically and militarily. Pakistan really would become an extension of the new Chinese economic empire. All China needs to do is to complete railroads through Burma and link the Afghanistan line to Iran and it will have an Asian rail empire, within a generation, all the way to the English Channel without using the Trans-Siberian.

NIGHTWATCH HOME

Phi Beta Iota: This is the kind of strategic analysis rooted in solid intellect that should characterize the entire US Intelligence Community, not one lone individual.  Three big things appear to be looming on the horizon:  free cellular around the planet, monetizing the transactions instead of the connections; low-cost rail (and eventually the Buckminster Fuller electrical grid) girding the globe; and finally, the up-ending of capitalism to focus on the needs–and wealth-creating capabilities–of the five billion poor.  No one in Washington, London, Paris, Bonn, or Toyko–or even New Delhi and Jakarta where they have the most to gain–is thinking about this.  That is a crime against humanity, a moral and intellectual atrocity so horrendous as to call into question the legitimacy of every government.

Event Report: 30 Jun-1 July, NYC – ICSR Peace and Security Summit

01 Poverty, 03 India, 04 Indonesia, 05 Civil War, 05 Iran, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Terrorism, 10 Security, 10 Transnational Crime, 12 Water, Academia, Civil Society, Collective Intelligence, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, History, Law Enforcement, Methods & Process, Military, Non-Governmental, Peace Intelligence, Policy, Strategy, Technologies
Event link

Peace and Security Summit Event Report/Notes

+ Host: London-based International Centre for the Study of Radicalization and Political Violence

+ Partners, Affiliates, Financial Support: National Defense Univ, Rena & Sami David, The Rockefeller Foundation, Public Safety Canada, Center on Global Counterterrorism Cooperation, Centre for Policy Research, New Dehli, Dept of War Studies , King's College London, Inst for Strategic Threat Analysis & Response, Univ of Penn, International Inst for Counter-Terrorism, Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya, Pakistan Inst for Peace Studies, Regional Centre on Conflict Prevention, Jordan Inst of Diplomacy

> Overall, disappointing but reviewing these notes shows there are some good nuggets to take + connect.

BIGGEST SURPRISE = NOT ONE MENTION ABOUT FINANCING OF TERRORISM

Continue reading “Event Report: 30 Jun-1 July, NYC – ICSR Peace and Security Summit”

Where We Are Winning – Where We Are Losing: Futurologists Publish Annual Report on Major World Problems and Opportunities

01 Poverty, 03 Economy, 03 Environmental Degradation, 04 Education, 05 Energy, 06 Family, 11 Society, 12 Water, Academia, Civil Society, Collective Intelligence, Commerce, Corruption, Government, Key Players, Non-Governmental, Peace Intelligence

Millennium Project / State of the Future web portal

Where We Are Winning – Where We Are Losing:

Futurologists Publish Annual Report on Major World Problems and Opportunities

Berlin 7th July 2010 – Can civilization implement solutions fast enough to keep ahead of the looming challenges? The Millennium Project, a global independent think tank of futurologists, and thought leaders, today published its 14th report on global perspectives in Germany and around the world. Until two years ago the report showed a positive trend in the so-called “State of the Future Index” (SOFI). Triggered by the financial and economic crises and the failure of the climate conference in Copenhagen, the current SOFI shows that the prospects of success in solving some major global challenges have become somewhat clouded.

What the authors see as lacking the most, according to Jerome Glenn,
Director of the Millennium Project, are a serried of serious global
strategies to be implemented by governments, companies, NGOs, UN
institutions and other international bodies.” The world is in a race between
implementing ever-increasing ways to improve the human condition and the
seemingly ever-increasing complexity and scale of global problems. After 14
years of research into the future within the framework of the Millennium
Project it is increasingly clear that the world has the necessary capacity
to cope with its problems. However, it remains unclear whether humankind
will make the right decisions on the scale necessary to meet the global
challenges appropriately”, said Glenn.

Among the regular sections in the ninety page ‘State of the Future' report
are the annually updated analyses of the fifteen key global challenges, as
well as the publication of the State of the Future Index (SOFI). The index
identifies areas in which there has been either an improvement or
deterioration during the past 20 years and creates projections for these
scenarios over the coming decade. All relevant and recognised studies by the
UN or World Bank are distilled as part of these projections.

On individual results of the State of the Future Index:

Where We Are Winning
Continue reading “Where We Are Winning – Where We Are Losing: Futurologists Publish Annual Report on Major World Problems and Opportunities”

Journal: Multi-Polarity Here to Stay….

08 Wild Cards
Chuck Spinney Recommends

Very good summary of Turkey's emerging regional influence. CS

Turkey, America, and Empire’s Twilight

by Conn Hallinan, Antiwar.com,  July 06, 2010

When U.S. forces found themselves beset by a growing insurgency in Iraq following their lightning overthrow of Saddam Hussein, the most obvious parallel that came to mind was Vietnam: an occupying army, far from home, besieged by a shadowy foe. But Patrick Cockburn, the Independent‘s ace Middle East reporter, suggested that the escalating chaos was more like the Boer War than the conflict in Southeast Asia.

It was a parallel that was lost on most Americans, very few of whom know anything about the short, savage, turn-of-the-century war between Dutch settlers and the British Empire in South Africa.

But the analogy explains a great deal about the growing influence of a country like Turkey, and why Washington, despite its military power and economic clout, can no longer dominate regional and global politics.

FULL STORY ONLINE

Journal: Regurgitated Pablum from David Ignatius

06 Russia, 07 Other Atrocities, 10 Security, Commercial Intelligence, Computer/online security, Government, IO Secrets, Law Enforcement, Mobile

Marcus Aurelius Recommends

Washington Post  July 4, 2010 Pg. 19

Keystroke Spies

By David Ignatius

The alleged Russian spy ring is a pleasant summer distraction (Anna Chapman — call your agent!) and a wonderful opportunity to use the phrase femme fatale. But if you want to ponder a 21st-century intelligence puzzle this July 4 weekend, turn your attention to cyber-espionage — where our adversaries can steal in a few seconds what it took an old-fashioned spy network years to collect.

First, though, let's think about what the Russian “illegals” were up to in their suburban spy nests. U.S. intelligence officials think it's partly that the Russians just love running illegal networks. This has been part of their tradecraft since the 1920s, and it enabled many of their most brilliant operations, from Rudolf Abel to Julius and Ethel Rosenberg. The FBI finds it hard to break its cultural habits, and so does Russia's intelligence service, the SVR.

FULL STORY ONLINE

See Also: Neil Stephenson in SNOWCRASH (first edition late 1980's),

Winn Schwartau in Terminal Compromise: Computer Terrorism is a Networked Society and then in INFORMATION WARFARE: Chaos on the Electronic Superhighway (early 1990's), and

top observers in 1994 in a Memorandum to the National Information Infrastructure (NII) “czar.”

Journal: Continuity of Gerbil Operations

08 Wild Cards, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Law Enforcement, Military, Peace Intelligence
Marcus Aurelius Recommends

COMMENTS:

1.  The “fact of” PDB distribution is well known; Administrations influence who is on the distro list.

2.  Of the principals showcased here, some are (at least sort of) competent patriotic and some…well…

3.  This article is, perhaps unknowingly, deceptive in that it creates an impression that USG is postured to continue mission 24/7 from wherever necessary.  Not necessarily so.  There is a long established and openly acknowledged “Continuity of Operations” (COOP) program and a related personnel program, “telework,” that are essentially broken — misunderstood and pitifully under-resourced.  At least within DoD, the COOP programs are inextricably trapped in Cold War mentalities where the principal threat was nuclear strikes on key command and control nodes.  The concept was that a very small and elite segment of the workforce evacuated to predesignated facilities to sustain a very small set of “mission essential functions” for a relatively short period (say less than 30 days) after which the survivors emerge from their smoking holes and restart the world.  That mindset endures.  COOP and the people running it have not been able to transition to the idea that contingencies now exist that require USG to sustain a much greater fraction (say; 90%) of normal day to day functions for much longer periods (say 270 cumulative days over an 18-24 month period) and do it from distributed locations in order to intentionally avoid concentrating the workforce.  Inflexible security policies retard achievement of that standard as does misconstruction of “telework,” which is cast as a personnel benefit program, intended as a reward for a picked set of supposed high performing employees, and hampered by traditional information security strictures, computer security strictures, and pervasive management concerns about how to intensively manage and supervise teleworkers in order to ensure that they do not defraud the government.  Some of the policy documents governing telework are mind-boggling garbage.  Further, the overriding intent is that the teleworking employee financially support telework, particularly internet access back to the employing agency and in many cases basic hardware and software.)

President Obama's nighthawks: Top officials charged with guarding the nation's safety

By Laura Blumenfeld Washington Post Staff Writer

Sunday, July 4, 2010; A01

Headlights approach on an empty road. A government agent steps out of an armored SUV, carrying a locked, black satchel.

“Here's the bag,” the agent says, to the intelligence official. “Here's the key.”

The key turns, and out slides a brown leather binder, gold-stamped TOP SECRET. The President's Daily Brief, perhaps the most secret book on Earth.

The PDB handoff happens in the dead of every night. The book distills the nation's greatest threats, intelligence trends and concerns, and is written by a team at CIA headquarters.

FULL STORY ONLINE

Phi  Beta Iota: The President's Daily Brief (PDB) costs $75 billion a year to produce, and provides the President and senior commanders with “at best” 4% of what he  needs to know.  The US Intelligence Community lacks a strategic analytic model and does nothing of consequence for Cabinet Secretaries, regional and functional Assistant Secretaries, or individual action officers (e.g. the one deep Energy officer responsible for proliferation).  Madeline Albright it right when she described herself and others as “gerbils on a wheel.”

See also:

Continue reading “Journal: Continuity of Gerbil Operations”

Journal: Versailles on the Potamac in Flames….

08 Wild Cards

Chuck Spinney Recommends

This is an excellent analysis of why our leadership's hair is on fire and will remain on fire in Versailles and Bagram.  CS

When Rolling Stone Calls the Shots, It’s Time to Negotiate

By Fred Branfman, Truthdig, 30 Jun 2010

It is amazing how little commentary there has been on the key issue raised by the McChrystal Affair: Should U.S. war policy be made by Rolling Stone? The very fact that it took a magazine article for President Barack Obama to remove Gen. Stanley McChrystal provides the strongest possible reason for allowing Afghan President Hamid Karzai and Pakistan to negotiate a settlement with the Taliban.

One point must be understood above all: McChrystal was not fired because he disrespected civilian authority, despised his administration colleagues and was running a dysfunctional operation. He was ousted because he allowed the public to find out—the one unforgivable sin for a U.S. executive branch long accustomed to operating its wars with little public or congressional knowledge or accountability, behind a PR curtain maintaining the myth that U.S. foreign and military policy is conducted democratically.

If the Rolling Stone piece had not appeared, McChrystal would still be running the war in Afghanistan, still ignoring e-mail messages from Richard “Wounded Beast” Holbrooke, still feeling betrayed by Karl “Traitor” Eikenberry, still blowing off Joe “Bite Me” Biden and James “Clown” Jones, and still disparaging Barack “Disengaged” Obama.

FULL STORY ONLINE

Phi  Beta Iota: Since 1988 the official US Government position on “the truth” and those that speak “the truth” has been to label both the truth and those that speak the truth “lunatic.”  It is high time the public took its Republic back, to include a demand for Electoral Reform in time for 2010 and 2010; the wholesale firing of BOTH Democratic AND Republican Members of the Senate and of Congress, and the creation of a Sunshine Cabinet led by Ron Paul, Ralph Nader, Cynthia McKinney, and Jackie Salit, with strategy support and intelligence support from across America, harnessing the distributed minds of our great Republic in being (simply being held prisoner in Washington, D.C. and New York City).

See also:

Search: smart nation intelligence reform electoral reform national security reform