Ralph Peters: Testimony to Congress on Pakistan As a Failing Empire, Focus on Baluchistan

Analysis, Budgets & Funding, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Hill Letters & Testimony, History, InfoOps (IO), Intelligence (government), IO Impotency, Key Players, Methods & Process, Military, Officers Call, Policies, Strategy, Threats, True Cost
Ralph Peters

Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations
House Committee on Foreign Affairs
Baluchistan Hearing, February 8, 2012
Testimony of Ralph Peters, military analyst and author

“PAKISTAN AS A FAILING EMPIRE”

2012-02-09 Ralph Peters House Testimony, Baluchistan and Pakistan (8 pages, doc)

Introductory remarks: This testimony arises from three premises.

First, we cannot analyze global events through reassuring ideological lenses, be they left or right, or we will continue to be mistaken, surprised and bewildered by foreign developments. The rest of the world will neither conform to our prejudices nor behave for our convenience.

Second, focusing obsessively on short-term problems blinds us to the root causes and frequent intractability of today’s conflicts.  Because we do not know history, we wave history away.  Yet, the only way to understand the new world disorder is to place current developments in the context of generations and even centuries.  Otherwise, we will continue to blunder through situations in which we deploy to Afghanistan to end Taliban rule, only to find ourselves, a decade later, impatient to negotiate the Taliban’s return to power.

Third, we must not be afraid to “color outside of the lines.”  When it comes to foreign affairs, Washington’s political spectrum is monochromatic: timid, conformist and wrong with breathtaking consistency.  We have a Department of State that refuses to think beyond borders codified at Versailles nine decades ago; a Department of Defense that, faced with messianic and ethnic insurgencies, concocted its doctrine from irrelevant case studies of yesteryear’s Marxist guerrillas; and a think-tank community almost Stalinist in its rigid allegiance to twentieth-century models of how the world should work.

If we do not think innovatively, we will continue to fail ignobly.

Continue reading “Ralph Peters: Testimony to Congress on Pakistan As a Failing Empire, Focus on Baluchistan”

Robert Steele: The Craft of Intelligence – OLD vs. NEW

Advanced Cyber/IO, Communities of Practice, Cultural Intelligence, Director of National Intelligence et al (IC), Earth Intelligence, Ethics, InfoOps (IO), Intelligence (government), Key Players, Methods & Process, Officers Call, Policies, Reform, Serious Games, Threats
General James Clapper

UPDATED 18 January 2014

Intelligence Chief Describes Complex Challenges. America and the world are facing the most complex set of challenges in at least 50 years, the director of national intelligence told the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence here today.

James R. Clapper Jr. said capabilities, technologies, know-how, communications and environmental forces “aren't confined by borders and can trigger transnational disruptions with astonishing speed.”

“Never before has the intelligence community been called upon to master such complexity on so many issues in such a resource- constrained environment,” he added.

CIA Director David H. Petraeus, FBI Director Robert S. Mueller III, Defense Intelligence Agency Director Army Lt. Gen. Ronald L. Burgess Jr. and others accompanied Clapper during his testimony on Capitol Hill. Clapper spoke for all agencies in his opening statement.

Click on Image to Enlarge

All U.S. agencies are combating the complex environment and making sense of the threats by continuing to integrate the community and “by taking advantage of new technologies, implementing new efficiencies and, as always, simply working hard,” Clapper said.

Still, he said, all agencies are confronting the difficult fiscal environment.

“Maintaining the world's premier intelligence enterprise in the face of shrinking budgets will be difficult,” the director said. “We'll be accepting and managing risk more so than we've had to do in the last decade.”

Terrorism and proliferation remain the first threats the intelligence agencies must face, he said, and the next three years will be crucial. [Read more: Garamone/AFPS/31January2012]

Tip of the Hat to AFCEA.

Below the Line:  Craft of Intelligence for the 21st Century

Continue reading “Robert Steele: The Craft of Intelligence – OLD vs. NEW”

David Isenberg: Open Access to Scientific Information

Advanced Cyber/IO, Communities of Practice, Cultural Intelligence, Earth Intelligence, Ethics, InfoOps (IO), Methods & Process, Open Government, Policies, Politics of Science & Science of Politics, Reform
David Isenberg

Open Access to Scientific Information

By Adrian Janes

Source: House of Commons Library (UK)

Overview:

Open Access (OA) to scientific publications could provide more effective dissemination of research and thus increase its impact.

The costs and benefits of different models of providing OA to publications need to be considered if a comprehensive shift to OA is to be financially sustainable.

OA to research data could enable others to validate findings and re-use data to advance knowledge and promote innovation.

Sharing data openly requires effective data management and archiving. It also presents challenges relating to protecting intellectual property and privacy.

Expanding access to scientific information requires researchers, librarians, higher education institutions, funding agencies and publishers, to continue to work together.

+ Direct link to document from this page (PDF; 351 KB)

See Also:

1992 E3i: Ethics, Ecology, Evolution, & intelligence (An Alternative Paradigm)

1992 AIJ Fall ‘New Paradigm” and Avoiding Future Failures

1992 Steele (US) From School House to White House

Chris Pallaris: 12 Aspects of Creative Thinking Not Taught in Schools

Blog Wisdom, Cultural Intelligence, InfoOps (IO), Methods & Process
Chris Pallaris

Creative Thinkering

Resurrecting your natural creativity through inspiring techniques and practical examples

Michael Michalko

Twelve Things You Were Not Taught in School About Creative Thinking

Aspects of creative thinking that are not usually taught.

LIST ONLY – read full article for expansions.

1.  You are creative.
2.  Creative thinking is work.
3.  You must go through the motions of being creative.
4.  Your brain is not a computer.
5.  There is no one right answer.
6.  Never stop with your first good idea.
7.  Expect the experts to be negative.
8.  Trust your instincts.
9.  There is no such thing as failure.
10.  You do not see things as they are; you see them as you are.
11.  Always approach a problem on its own terms.
12.  Learn to think unconventionally.

Read full article.

Phi Beta Iota:  They left out the following:

1.  Everything is connected.
2.  Understanding true costs as a concept is fundamental.
3.  Cultural lenses matter.
4.  Understanding history is a strong foundation for shaping the future.
5.  The best thinkers are not necessarily the best teachers or doers.
6.  Trust is the fuel for all of the above – transparency & truth build trust.

Mini-Me: Occupy 9/11 Emergent – War by Deception 2011 – The shadow government and shadow economy

03 Economy, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 06 Genocide, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, Corruption, Government, InfoOps (IO), IO Deeds of War, Military, Movies, Officers Call, Power Behind-the-Scenes/Special Interests, Videos/Movies/Documentaries
Who? Mini-Me?

Occupy 9/11 is emergent. This film, loaded on 1 February 2011, is now going viral. At 2:28:42, this is one of the best documentaries on the topic, and it is free online.

YouTube War by Deception 2011

Phi Beta Iota:  This is an extraordinary contribution.  It is highly recommended for students as well as adult learning clubs; it provides the best “overview” in one place.

See Also:

9-11 Truth Books & DVDs (33)

DefDog: Extensive Intelligence Failure Over Korea

Budgets & Funding, Director of National Intelligence et al (IC), InfoOps (IO), Intelligence (government), IO Impotency, Methods & Process
DefDog

Deja vu — over and over again.

In Kim’s Death, an Extensive Intelligence Failure

By and

New York Times, December 19, 2011

EXTRACT:

For South Korean, Chinese and American intelligence services to have failed to pick up any clues to this momentous development — panicked phone calls between government officials, say, or soldiers massing around Mr. Kim’s train — attests to the secretive nature of North Korea, a country not only at odds with most of the world but also sealed off from it in a way that defies spies or satellites.

Read full story.

Phi Beta Iota:  There is a huge disconnect between how the US secret intelligence community spends money, and what it produces.  4% “at best” of what a major commander needs to know, and nothing for everyone else.  Until the secret world has leadership focused on requirements definition, collection management, holistic analytics, multinational information-sharing and sense-making, and direct constant support to decision-makers at all levels across all issue areas, it will continue to administer (not mange, not lead) the world's most expensive Potemkin Village.

See Also:

Graphic: Tony Zinni on 4% “At Best”

Graphic: Intelligence Maturity Scale

Journal: Reflections on Integrity UPDATED + Integrity RECAP

2010: Human Intelligence (HUMINT) Trilogy Updated

2008 COLLECTIVE INTELLIGENCE: Creating a Prosperous World at Peace

2006 INFORMATION OPERATIONS: All Information, All Languages, All the Time

2002 THE NEW CRAFT OF INTELLIGENCE: Personal, Public, & Political

2000 ON INTELLIGENCE: Spies and Secrecy in an Open World

Yoda: Connecting Dots, Patterns in Large Data Sets

Analysis, info-graphics/data-visualization, InfoOps (IO), Methods & Process
Got Crowd? BE the Force!

Connecting the Dots: Finding Patterns in Large Piles of Numbers

Atlantic, 16 December 2011

A new program can find and compare relationships in complicated data without having to be asked specific queries

Are there subtle patterns lurking in data that can foretell of a coming financial-system crash? What can explain the variations in sports-star salaries? How about the complex relationship between genes and certain diseases? Scientists in various fields have been searching for better ways to analyze large piles of data for such patterns, but the difficulty has always been that they need to know what they're looking for in order to find. A new software program, described in the latest issue of Science, is designed to find the patterns in data that scientists don't know to look for.

David Reshef, one of the scientists behind MINE, as the program is called, explains, “Standard methods will see one pattern as signal and others as noise. There can potentially be a variety of different types of relationships in a given data set. What's exciting about our method is that it looks for any type of clear structure within the data, attempting to find all of them. … This ability to search for patterns in an equitable way offers tremendous exploratory potential in terms of searching for patterns without having to know ahead of time what to search for.” MINE compares different possible relationships (including linear, exponential, and periodic)  and returns those that are strongest.

On MINE's website, the program is available for download.