Category: Analysis

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References on Intelligence Analysis

Analysis, Monographs
Berto Jongman Recommends...

Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations
National Research Council, 2011

Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences
National Research Council, 2011

Phi Beta Iota: There is nothing in either of these that Jack Davis, Stephen Andriole, Andy Shepard, and a whole lot of others do not already know.  Going through this stuff, one can only observe that it took them three years to get to the obvious, and that neither book addresses the fact that the US Intelligence Community remains focused on collection inputs, lacks integrity across the board, has no strategic analytic model or modern collection management plan that respects open sources in 183 languages, and relies for analytics on young people without substantive knowledge, US citizens with secret clearances two steps removed from reality, and a total ban on actually engaging with the 90-country minimum it takes to achieve M4IS2.

NRO-NGA-NSA, DIA (the dog), CIA, DNI (on top)

Source

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Continue reading “References on Intelligence Analysis”

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Live Crisis Mapping: Routing Around Old Mindsets

03 Environmental Degradation, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, Analysis, Augmented Reality, Civil Society, Collective Intelligence, CrisisWatch reports, Ethics, InfoOps (IO), IO Mapping, IO Multinational, IO Sense-Making, Maps, Mobile, Real Time, Tools
Click for Live Map with Substance Links

OCHA, UNOSAT and NetHope have been collaborating with the Volunteer Technical Community (VTC) specifically CrisisMappers, Crisis Commons, Open Street Map, and the Google Crisis Response Team over the past week.

The CrisisMappers Standby Task Force has been undertaking a mapping of social media, news reports and official situation reports from within Libya and along the borders at the request of OCHA. The Task Force is also aiding in the collection and mapping of 3W information for the response. UNOSAT is kindly hosting the Common Operational Datasets to be used during the emergency. Interaction with these groups is being coordinated by OCHA’s Information Services Section.

The public version of this map does not include personal identifiers and does not include descriptions for the reports mapped. This restriction is for security reasons. All information included on this map is derived from information that is already publicly available online (see Sources tab).

Click for Live Map with Substance Links

In the midst of this transition in Libya, one of the most devastating earthquakes in centuries hit northern Japan, causing one of the most destructive tsunamis in recent memory. Just hours after the earthquake, a member of Japan's OpenStreetMap community launched a dedicated Crisis Map for the mega-disaster. A few hours later, Japanese students at The Fletcher School (which is where the Ushahidi-Haiti Crisis Map was launched) got in touch with the Tokyo-based OpenStreetMap team to provide round-the-clock crisis mapping support.

Over 4,000 reports have been mapped in just 6 days. That's an astounding figure. Put differently, that's over 600 reports per day, or one report almost every two minutes for 24 hours straight over 6 days. What's important about the Japan Crisis Map is that the core operations are being run directly from Tokyo and the team there is continuing to scale it's operations. It's very telling that the Tokyo team did not require any support from the Standby Volunteer Task Force. They're doing an excellent job in the midst of the biggest disaster they've ever faced. I'm just amazed.

Tip of the Hat to Patrick Meier and Team at iRevolution.

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Crowd-Sourcing Comes of Age on Libya

Advanced Cyber/IO, Analysis, Civil Society, Collective Intelligence, Corruption, Counter-Oppression/Counter-Dictatorship Practices, Ethics, Government, info-graphics/data-visualization, InfoOps (IO), Intelligence (government), IO Sense-Making, Methods & Process, Mobile, Real Time
May the Crowd be with you, always.

Volunteers Behind Libya Crisis Map: A True Story

Patrick Meier, iRevolutiion, 8 March 2011

My colleague Clay Shirky called it “Cognitive Surplus” in his recent book. Don Tapscott and Anthony Williams refer to it as “MacroWikinomics” in theirs.

What is cognitive surplus? The trillion hours of free time enjoyed by the world's educated population every year. Don and Tony describe MacroWikinomics as mass distributed collaboration on scales we've never seen before thanks to technology.

We're familiar with deficits and shortages, writes, Clay, but when it comes to surplus social capital, things quickly become unpredictable—especially when this capital scales thanks to the use of social networking platforms and Web 2.0 technologies. But then again, says Clay, “Many of the unexpected uses of communication tools are surprising because our old beliefs about human nature were so lousy.”

Rest of story, maps, photos….

Phi Beta Iota: Over bagels and lox yesterday, Doug Rushkoff summarized his intention for ContactCon: “to take us back to 1992, but this time with 2012 technology and human understanding.”  Here is what the US Government was told in 1992 about crowd-sourcing.  20 years and 1 trillion dollars later (20 years, average of 50 billion a year), we still have the world's most expensive ineffective wasteland pretending to “do” intelligence.  The lunacy continues.

1992 AIJ OSS Steele’s Original Vision

1992 AIJ Fall ‘New Paradigm” and Avoiding Future Failures

Reference: 1992 USMC C4I Campaign Plan

1992 E3i: Ethics, Ecology, Evolution, & intelligence (An Alternative Paradigm)

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Reference: The Global Democratic Revolution Anew

07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Justice, 11 Society, Analysis, Articles & Chapters, Civil Society, Collective Intelligence, Counter-Oppression/Counter-Dictatorship Practices, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Military, Peace Intelligence, Reform

The great events in tthe Arab world are part of a wider hidtorical process of worldwide democrativ advance.But the distrous events of the post-9/11 decade have made it far slower and more conflictual than needed, says Martin Shaw*

EXTRACT:  “…everywhere, the unifying thread is opposition to authoritarianism and aspiration to democratic rule; and the sense of a psychological break with the dictatorial past is unmistakable.”

* Martin Shaw is professorial fellow in international relations and human rights at Roehampton University, London, and an honorary research professor of international relations at the University of Sussex. His books include War and Genocide: Organised Killing in Modern Society (Polity, 2003); The New Western Way of War: Risk-Transfer War and its Crisis in Iraq (Polity, 2005); and What is Genocide? (Polity, 2007).

Read complete analytic offering….

Phi Beta Iota: One of the most concise, thoughtful, and inspiring summaries of both the present prospects and the recent failed past, all in the context of the past half century.

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HISTORICAL: Jack Davis, The Bogotazo

05 Civil War, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, Analysis, Cultural Intelligence, Government
Jack Davis

The declassified version of my 1968 Studies in Intelligence article can be found in a couple of different formats under “Jack Davis, Bogotazo.”  Please post it. I think this is my first published work.

Take a look at the conclusions of an article I wrote 43 years ago, and substitute “North Africa” for “Latin America” and “al Qa’ida” for “Communists.”

Jack

APPROVED FOR RELEASE 1994 CIA HISTORICAL REVIEW PROGRAM 2 JULY 96

SECRET

Distant events shape the craft of intelligence.

THE BOGOTAZO

Jack Davis

On the afternoon of 9 April 1948, angry mobs suddenly and swiftly reduced the main streets of Bogotá to a smoking ruin. Radio broadcasts, at times with unmistakable Communist content, called for the overthrow of the Colombian government and of “Yankee Imperialism.” Many rioters wore red arm bands; some waved banners emblazoned with the hammer-and-sickle. A mob gutted the main floor of the Capitola Nacional, disrupting the deliberations of the Ninth International Conference of American States and forcing Secretary of State Marshall and the other delegates to take cover. The army regained control of the city over the next day or two. But not before several thousand Colombians had been killed. It was the bogotazo.

Read entire analytic piece now declassified.

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Reference: Crisis Mapping

Advanced Cyber/IO, Analysis, Augmented Reality, Autonomous Internet, Budgets & Funding, Collaboration Zones, Collective Intelligence, Communities of Practice, Counter-Oppression/Counter-Dictatorship Practices, Ethics, info-graphics/data-visualization, InfoOps (IO), International Aid, Journalism/Free-Press/Censorship, Key Players, Maps, Methods & Process, microfinancing, Mobile, Open Government, Policies, Real Time, Reform, Threats, Tools
Michel Bauwens

Recommended:

see http://p2pfoundation.net/Crisis_Mapping,

part of http://p2pfoundation.net/Category:Geography

and updated via http://delicious.com/mbauwens/P2P-Mapping

See Also:

Autonomous [Free, Distributed] Internet

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Foreign Policy Slanders Sy Hersh–Loses Its Integrity

07 Other Atrocities, 09 Justice, Analysis, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, IO Sense-Making, Journalism/Free-Press/Censorship, Media, Misinformation & Propaganda
(from left to right) Tom Ricks of Foreign Policy magazine and The Washington Post, along with fellow FP editors Joshua Keating and Blake Hounshell all rushed to discredit Hersh and the contents of his January 17th, 2011 speech.

Pulitzer Prize Winner Seymour Hersh And The Men Who Want Him Committed

By Matthew Phelan on February 23, 2011

WhoWhatWhy: Forensic Journalism

It seems unusual for a staid, respected publication (one that has received three National Magazine Awards in just this past decade) to start treating a celebrated journalist (who himself has won two National Magazine Awards in just this past decade) as if he were nothing more than a paranoid crank.

It seems unusual, but it’s exactly what the staff of Foreign Policy has done to Seymour Hersh, following a lecture the venerated reporter gave at Georgetown University’s campus in Doha, Qatar. You may know Hersh as the dogged investigator who exposed the My Lai Massacre during Vietnam. You may know him as the staff writer for The New Yorker who published some of the earliest pieces on Abu Ghraib in May 2004. You might even know him as the man derided and then vindicated for claiming that Dick Cheney was running a secret assassination squad right out of the Vice President’s office. (In truth, the squad was and is a bipartisan affair, initiated under Clinton and still operative under Obama.)  Read more….

Phi Beta Iota: Sy Hersh is as honest as it gets.  Foreign Policy used to be a reputable, imaginative endeavor.  This is now the second time it has been disreputable and ignorant.  Inquiry has established that Moises Naim, the extraordinary editor who took Foreign Policy from nothing to being twice as good as Foreign Affairs, has moved to other duties within the Carnegie Endowment, and it is clear to us that with his departure, Foreign Policy has lost its integrity as well as its intelligence.