Regime Alternation: US Response to Arab Revolt + RECAP

04 Inter-State Conflict, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, Corruption, Counter-Oppression/Counter-Dictatorship Practices, Government, IO Sense-Making, Military
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Chuck Spinney Sounds Off....

The Obama administration could end up in a very dicey situation if/when the Arab Revolt spreads to Saudi Arabia.  The House of Saud is likely to crack down on demonstrators with a very heavy hand. Oil prices could explode, and Israel would go bonkers.  The Wall Street Journal just issued a detailed report describing how the Obama Administration is wavering in its support for democracy demonstrators, urging patience, and hoping the protesters work will with existing monarchies (Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Jordan, Morocco, etc.) as well as Yemen for gradual reforms (Libya excepted, of course) … the curious euphemism for the emerging desperation to stiffen the three pillars* of our crumbling Middle East policy is “regime alteration.”

The attached essay by veteran middle east correspondent Robert Fisk puts the theory of regime alteration into a moral and economic perspective.

Chuck Spinney<
The Blaster

————

* The three pillars of our ME foreign policy are –

  1. Uncritical support for and protection of Israel.
  2. Protection of Saudi Arabia (and the Persian Gulf Arab states) in return for Saudi assurance of stable oil flows.
  3. Recycling of petrodollars via weapons sales (to countries at peace with Israel, like Egypt, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, UAE, etc.) and banking/investment houses.

(Note: Over these years, these pillars have been supported also by efforts to limit Soviet and Iranian influence in the Middle East and N. Africa.)

Saudis mobilise thousands of troops to quell growing revolt

By Robert Fisk, Middle East Correspondent
Independent, Saturday, 5 March 2011

Saudi Arabia was yesterday drafting up to 10,000 security personnel into its north-eastern Shia Muslim provinces, clogging the highways into Dammam and other cities with busloads of troops in fear of next week's “day of rage” by what is now called the “Hunayn Revolution”.

Saudi Arabia's worst nightmare – the arrival of the new Arab awakening of rebellion and insurrection in the kingdom – is now casting its long shadow over the House of Saud. Provoked by the Shia majority uprising in the neighbouring Sunni-dominated island of Bahrain, where protesters are calling for the overthrow of the ruling al-Khalifa family, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia is widely reported to have told the Bahraini authorities that if they do not crush their Shia revolt, his own forces will.  Read more….

Phi Beta Iota: The Obama Administration means well, but it operates in a moral & intellectual vacuum.  In combination, its bailing out of Wall Street and destitution of the middle class (while poverty doubled), its loss of integrity in not ending the occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan, its continued tolerance of out-of-control security and intelligence bureaucracies, and now its clear intent to join the UK in putting still more forces in the middle of what is rightfully a legitimate revolt of, by, and for the Arab people, represent the last death rattle of Empire.

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How Many [Taliban Wistful] Ahmeds in Afghanistan?

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, Corruption, Government, Military, Peace Intelligence
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Chuck Spinney Recommends....

Background: According to an Afghan friend, the author of this piece was sacked from her job at IWPR, by the British, because she insisted on publishing an unpleasant truth in an article. Now she works free-lance and she’s free to publish exactly what she sees and hears. CS

Those Good Old Taliban Days

A desperate longing for order in the midst of today’s chaos is making many Afghan nostalgic for a simpler time.

Jean MacKenzie, GlobalPost, 5 March 2011

“I hate this country,” said my taxi driver. “Any other country is better. I like Pakistan, I would move to Iran. Afghanistan is just not a good place.”

This categorical announcement in the midst of a bright, sunny Saturday morning was prompted by a rather nasty traffic jam. Cars were lined up to get into the swanky new Gulbahar shopping center, blocking two lanes of a busy road. It did not help that the entrance to the parking garage – the first one I have seen in Afghanistan – had room for only one car at a time. There was a brawny 4X4 trying to get out, a scrappy Toyota trying to get in; neither was willing to give way, so roughly a dozen drivers were blowing their horns and ruining my otherwise benign mood.

I made some noncommittal comment about poor Afghanistan being the war playground for the region, but my driver, let’s call him Ahmed, was having none of it.

“It’s not the English, or the Soviets, or the Americans,” he insisted. “It’s the people. They love to fight. They are dishonest. Everyone, from Karzai right on down to the smallest child.”

Continue reading “How Many [Taliban Wistful] Ahmeds in Afghanistan?”

NIGHTWATCH Revolution 2.0 Round-Up

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Phi Beta Iota: Two outcomes have emerged from Tunisia-Egypt: the first human, the second technical. Humans world-wide are emergent against the 44 dictators as well as false democracies such as the USA's GRIFTOPIA–the Power of the Powerless that emerged against the Soviet Union is now global; a strong aspect of this is that the human revolt is non-sectarian–secular corruption exploits sectarian divides, but when all are focused on ending corruption, there is no sectarian divide to exploit.  The second is human-technical: crowdsourcing of money combined with a rapidly emerging strategy for creating the Autonomous Internet. 2012 is a year of Awakening & Emergence.  What the Pope does in Assisi right now is slated to fail or be relevant, but if the Church wakes up and sees the possibilities, with religions adopting OpenBTS and Autonomous Internet as a means of empowering the faithful to be free with dignity, potent in creating a prosperous world at peace, Assisi is a game changer.

Bahrain, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Egypt, Libya, Libya-UK, Tunesia

Continue reading “NIGHTWATCH Revolution 2.0 Round-Up”

Review: The Clash of Ideas in World Politics–Transnational Networks, States, and Regime Change, 1510-2010

4 Star, Culture, Research, History, Politics, Power (Pathologies & Utilization), Religion & Politics of Religion, Security (Including Immigration), War & Face of Battle
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John M. Owen

4.0 out of 5 stars Academic, Historical Focus on States

March 4, 2011

In comparison to Grand Strategies: Literature, Statecraft, and World Order, which is receiving a 6+ from my (my top 10%), this is at best a 4 for the general public of which I am a part. It has its academic testimonials, in that world it seems to be a solid 5.

The author focuses on the period from 1510-2010 and on forcible regime change among polarized elites. While the author clearly states his intent to confront realism theory and to provide an alternative history over five centuries, the book leaves me bored and cold.

Ideas matter, the author tells us. He documents (most ably) three waves, three ideological struggles.

First wave 1520-1650, Catholic Church versus monarchs

Second wave 1770-1850, Monarchs versus republicans/constitutionalists

Third wave 1919 to date, Export of fascism, communism, and liberal democracy

Continue reading “Review: The Clash of Ideas in World Politics–Transnational Networks, States, and Regime Change, 1510-2010”

US-Korea Trade “Deal” is Dumb & Dirty

02 China, 03 Economy, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 11 Society, Commerce, Commercial Intelligence, Corporations, Corruption, Government, Misinformation & Propaganda, Money, Banks & Concentrated Wealth, Power Behind-the-Scenes/Special Interests, Waste (materials, food, etc)
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Michael Ostrolenk Recommends...

“What will N. Korea do with the money it gets from the U.S.- Korean Trade Deal?” Watch the video | Stop U.S.-Korea NAFTA

Conservative Congressman Walter Jones (R-NC) explains why Korean trade agreement threatens national security | Stop U.S.-Korea NAFTA

Conservative Pundit and Constitutional Scholar Bruce Fein on the Loss of U.S. Sovereignty under KORUS | Stop U.S.-Korea NAFTA

The North Korean Kaesong Sweatshop Zone

5 Key Issues Impacting the Future of Facebook

Advanced Cyber/IO, Autonomous Internet, Collaboration Zones, Communities of Practice
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Venessa Miemis

As part of the Future of Facebook Project and Open Foresight process, we’re asking the crowd for their opinions and forecasts on the same 15 questions we’ve asked our interviewees. Questions are posted on Quora, but can also be answered here on the blog or on our Facebook Page.

Here are some interesting and thought-provoking answers we’ve seen so far. We’ll be integrating our favorites into the final video series, so add your thoughts and join us as producers of the future!

1. Social Graph & Sentiment Data Usage  ..  2. Partnerships with Brands  ..  3. Higher Education  ..  4. Signal to Noise Ratio  ..   5. How We See Ourselves and the World

Add your views to the Future of Facebook Project topic on Quora!

Check out our kickstarter video here

Thanks to Producers Sean Park, Dr. William Ward, and Debra Farber, and to all supporters of the Future of Facebook Project!

Original Post

See Also:

2010 Imagining the Internet

2008 Future of the Internet

2008 Future of the Internet Economy

Seth Godin: worst moments are your best opportunity

Cultural Intelligence
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Seth Godin Home

The worst moments are your best opportunity

That's how we judge you and how we remember you.

You are presumed to be showing us your real self when you are on deadline, have a headache, are facing a customer service meltdown, haven't had a good night's sleep, are facing an ethical dilemma, are momentarily in power, are caught doing something when you thought no one else was looking, are irritable, have the opportunity to extract revenge, are losing a competition or are truly overwhelmed.

What a great opportunity to tell the story you'd like us to hear about you.