03 Economy – Page 179 – Public Intelligence Blog

Sleepwalking through America’s Unemployment Crisis

Mohamed A. El-Erian

Mohamed A. El-Erian is CEO and co-CIO of PIMCO, and author of When Markets Collide.

NEWPORT BEACH – It was relegated to the Q&A session, rather than featured prominently in the opening statement, at last week’s first-ever press conference of US Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke. It is an issue that too many in Washington, DC are willing to dismiss as “transitory,” despite visible evidence to the contrary. It is extremely vulnerable to high oil and food prices. And it undermines the operational assumptions that underpin the long-standing characterization of the US economy as vibrant and responsive.

The issue is the scope and composition of unemployment in America – a problem that is yet to be sufficiently recognized for its increasingly detrimental impact on the country’s social fabric, its economic potential, and its already-fragile fiscal position and debt dynamics.

Let us start with the facts:

· At 8.8% almost three years after the onset of the global financial crisis, America’s unemployment rate remains stubbornly (and unusually) high;

· Rather than reflecting job creation, much of the improvement in recent months (from 9.8% in November last year) is due to workers exiting the labor force, thus driving workforce participation to a multi-year low of 64.2%;

· If part-time workers eager to work full time are included, almost one in six workers in America are either under- or unemployed;

· More than six million workers have been unemployed for more than six months, and four million for over a year;

· Unemployment among 16-19 year olds is at a staggering 24%;

Read rest of article….

2011/05/012011/05/14

Bin Laden Show 67: Paradigm Shift — Bin Laden and the Spring of Arab Revolutions

03 Economy, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Justice, 10 Security, 11 Society, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, IO Impotency, IO Sense-Making

Towards a New Paradigm Shift: Bin Laden and the Spring of Arab Revolutions

By ESAM AL-AMIN

13-15 May 2011

EXTRACT:

Despite the dozens of meetings in the review process, it’s remarkable that the whole premise of the U.S. escalation in Afghanistan and Pakistan was not challenged or probed. The U.S. has committed tens of thousands of soldiers, hundreds of billions of dollars, and uncalculated risks of alienating peoples, countries, and regions based on a faulty premise.

Since the early days regional experts warned against the broad brush approach of the Bush administration which led to the catastrophic Iraq war, the loss of civil rights of many in the country, the deterioration of the economy, and the high tension that exists between the West and the Muslim world.

Georgetown University Professor John Esposito and Gallup conducted numerous polls across the Muslim World, which revealed that Muslims across the globe unequivocally reject Al-Qaeda’s ideology and means, though they sympathize with the legitimate struggles of many Muslims battling injustice and dictators.

Perhaps a major part of the problem was the inability or unwillingness of the U.S. government to distinguish between Al-Qaeda networks and others who have legitimate grievances but do not employ its indiscriminate killings, illegal means, or twisted rhetoric. But the recent death of Osama Bin Laden might present a real opportunity for a paradigm shift and course change.

Read full analysis and forecast….

Phi Beta Iota: The US Government is making decisions on the basis of ideology, corruption, and less than 2% of the relevant real-world multi-cultural “true cost” information that integrity would make possible.

2011/05/012011/05/12

Bin Laden Show Part 04: President of Pakistan and China Against the Pakistani Military & Tribes

02 China, 02 Diplomacy, 03 Economy, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Iran, 06 Russia, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, Cultural Intelligence, Government, IO Impotency, Military

Pakistan did its part

By Asif Ali Zardari, Monday, May 2

Although the events of Sunday were not a joint operation, a decade of cooperation and partnership between the United States and Pakistan led up to the elimination of Osama bin Laden as a continuing threat to the civilized world. And we in Pakistan take some satisfaction that our early assistance in identifying an al-Qaeda courier ultimately led to this day.

China carries Benazir Bhutto’s dream – by Antoaneta Becker

Zardari and Chinese leaders reportedly discussed investment opportunities in numerous sectors, including port development, hydropower, roads, railways, mining and others.

Among the projects discussed between Beijing and Islamabad is a proposed railway to link Kashgar to the southern Pakistan port of Gwadar. If realized, it would give China direct access to the Arabian Sea and provide an alternative route should a naval blockade cut oil supplies from the Middle East.

“All Chinese plans for gaining access to resource-rich Central Asia and building energy pipelines pass through Gilgit-Baltistan,” said Syed. “Gilgit, the northern areas capital, has acquired the status of gateway to Central Asia after Pakistan-China barter trade agreement and accords with Central Asian States.”

say no to pak — Click on Image to Enlarge

Pakistan: Bhutto's shadow lingers as Zardari takes reins of power

Benazir's husband is voted in amid muted rejoicing, but army hostility and militant violence could threaten hopes for stability, reports Jason Burke

Phi Beta Iota: The Op Ed is “party line” stuff. Not in the Op-Ed is the fact that China is the President's primary ally, and the military and the tribes do not like him. Not in the Op Ed is China's enormous success across multiple fronts in Pakistan, including its ownership of the port of Gwadar, previously addressed here at Phi Beta Iota. While the USA has been waging war, badly, without a strategy and without a return on investment in mind, China has been waging peace. We are reminded of how Iran lured the US neoconservatives into Iraq. In the absence of intelligence and integrity at the highest levels of the US Government, China wins, Russia ties, and US loses, across Central Asia, over the next decade. Ultimately this region is about water and rare metals. The region is not conquerable. Brzezinski and his disciple Obama don't get that yet. President Zardari is not the man his wife was (see our review of her book below).

2011/04/302011/04/30

Understanding Rising Food Prices

01 Agriculture, 01 Poverty, 03 Economy, 03 Environmental Degradation, 04 Education, 05 Energy, 06 Family, 07 Other Atrocities, 11 Society, 12 Water, Commerce, Commercial Intelligence, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Earth Intelligence, Government

cheery waves — Cheery Waves Recommends....

Bottom line: ignorant government policies, and particularly the mandating of corn's use to make ethanol, have driven the price of corn up for real people who want to each corn and products containing corn (which turns out to be just about everything).

It's Getting Harder to Bring Home the Bacon

By MARY KISSEL, April 30, 2011

Wall Street Journal

C. Larry Pope, CEO of the world's largest pork producer, explains why food prices are rising and why they are likely to stay high for a long time.

It's also a business under enormous strain. Some “60 to 70% of the cost of raising a hog is tied up in the grains,” Mr. Pope explains. “The major ingredient is corn, and the secondary ingredient is soybean meal.” Over the last several years, “the cost of corn has gone from a base of $2.40 a bushel to today at $7.40 a bushel, nearly triple what it was just a few years ago.” Which means every product that uses corn has risen, too—including everything from “cereal to soft drinks” and more.

What triggered the upswing? In part: ethanol. President George W. Bush “came forward with—what do you call?—the edict that we were going to mandate 36 billion gallons of alternative fuels” by 2022, of which corn-based ethanol is “a substantial part.” Companies that blend ethanol into fuel get a $5 billion annual tax credit, and there's a tariff to keep foreign producers out of the U.S. market. Now 40% of the corn crop is “directed to ethanol, which equals the amount that's going into livestock food,” Mr. Pope calculates.

Continue reading “Understanding Rising Food Prices”

2011/04/292011/04/29

Cyber-Security Politics, Business, Ethics…

02 China, 03 Economy, 07 Other Atrocities, 10 Security, Advanced Cyber/IO, Commerce, Commercial Intelligence, Computer/online security, Corruption, Cyberscams, malware, spam, Government, InfoOps (IO), Mobile, Politics of Science & Science of Politics, Technologies

Is it just me, or does it appear that we're okay with selling our cyber-soul to China (and Russia), as long as we can also blow tens of billions on US firms pretending to do cyber-security?

Report: Despite status as U.S. security threat, China's Huawei partnering with Symantec

East-Asia-Intel.com, April 27, 2011

The Chinese telecom giant Huawei Technologies, which has been linked to the Chinese military, is working with the U.S. software security giant Symantec, which is engaged in securing hundreds of thousands of U.S. computer systems against outside intrusions, according to a report last week in the Diplomat newsletter.

The report said “China and Russia are leveraging U.S. multinational corporations' economic requirements to accomplish strategic goals that could quite plausibly include covert technology transfer of intellectual property, access to source code for use in malware creation and backdoor access to critical infrastructure.”

Huawei was blocked from buying the U.S. telecom 3Leaf last year by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) and also was blocked in 2008 from buying 3Com over security concerns. The U.S. National Security Agency also stepped in to dissuade AT&T from buying Huawei telephone equipment.

Despite those actions, Huawei formed a joint venture with Symantec in 2007 called Huawei Symantec Technologies Co. Ltd. (HS), the report said. Huawei is the majority partner with 51 percent ownership, with the entity being headquartered in Chengdu, China.

The report said a 2008 report identified HS as developing “China's first laboratory of attack and defense for networks and applications.”

The result is that Symantec is assisting China's cyber development of computer warfare capability.

The report was produced by cyber security expert Jeffrey Carr, author of Inside Cyber Warfare: Mapping the Cyber Underworld (O'Reilly, 2009).

Phi Beta Iota: The US Government compounds its lack of a strategic analytic model and the requisite integrity to actually pay attention to whatever findings might emerge, with an abysmal inattention to the most basic aspects of counter-intelligence, not just within government, but across the private sector, which does not actually take counter-intelligence seriously either. Creating a Smart and Safe Nation is not difficult–it requires only a uniform commitment to intelligence and integrity across all boundaries.

2011/04/28

Secrecy News: The Costs of War & More (CRS)

03 Economy, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, Budgets & Funding, Corruption, Military, Peace Intelligence

THE COSTS OF WAR, AND MORE FROM CRS

As of March 2011, Congress had approved a total of more than $1.2 trillion dollars for costs associated with the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and other post-9/11 “war on terror” operations, the Congressional Research Service said in its most recent update on the subject. See “The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11,” March 29, 2011.

Other new or newly updated CRS reports include the following (all pdf).

“Afghanistan Casualties: Military Forces and Civilians,” April 6, 2011.
“The Federal Bureau of Investigation and Terrorism Investigations,” April 27, 2011.
“U.S. Special Operations Forces (SOF): Background and Issues for Congress,” March 28, 2011.
“Sensitive Covert Action Notifications: Oversight Options for Congress,” April 6, 2011.
“Covert Action: Legislative Background and Possible Policy Questions,” April 6, 2011

Journal: Over $1 trillion Wasted on Wars, Veterans and Families of Veterans Vocal Against Both Elective Wars

Secrecy News: Costs of Major US Wars, Contractors in Iraq & AF, Drones & Homeland Sec

2011/04/28

Overcoming the political divide, but not through facts!

03 Economy, 04 Education, 06 Family, 11 Society, Advanced Cyber/IO, Articles & Chapters, Civil Society, Cultural Intelligence, InfoOps (IO), Methods & Process, Misinformation & Propaganda

This is a great analysis of how the liberal/conservative political divide persists, and a suggested path to solving it. By Ethan Zuckerman at the Berkman Center.

Great quote up front:

“You don’t lead with the facts in order to convince. You lead with the values — so as to give the facts a fighting chance.”

04/25/2011 (11:41 am)

Overcoming political polarization… but not through facts

A recent New York Times poll suggests that Americans are in a dark mood. 70% of people think the country is moving in the wrong direction, a number not seen since the peak of the Great Recession two years ago. Their frustration may stem from higher gas prices or continued unemployment, but at least some commentators believe that a key factor is popular frustration with a dysfunctional government that doesn’t seem able to address the issues the US is facing.

Read entire piece with many links….

Phi Beta Iota: This has been upgraded to a reference. Brother Steiner has brought forward one of the most elegant reviews of the conflicts between beliefs, values, facts, and needs that we have seen. This is a deep and broad article whose substance–and the links therein–merit appreciation by all who wish to advance the public's common interest.