References – Page 51 – Public Intelligence Blog

Today (March 9, 2012) the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that 227,000 new nonfarm payroll jobs were created by the economy during February. Is the government’s claim true?

No. Statistician John Williams (shadowstats.com) reports that 44,000 of these jobs or 19% consist of an add-on factor derived from the BLS’s estimate that 44,000 more unreported jobs from new business start-ups were created than were lost by unreported business failures. The BLS’s estimate comes from the bureau’s “birth-death model,” which works better during normal times, but delivers erroneous results during troubled times such as the economy has been experiencing during the past four years.

Taking out the 44,000 added-on jobs reduces the February jobs number to 183,000, but does not provide a full correction. In an economy as troubled as the US economy is, most likely the deaths exceeded the births, but we don’t know what the number is. Was it 20,000? 50,000? What number do we deduct from the 183,000? We simply do not know.

Williams reports that seasonal adjustment factors do not work properly during troubled economic times and add their own overstatement to the jobs figure. If anyone could estimate the overestimate of new jobs that results from malfunctioning seasonal adjustments, it is John Williams, but he doesn’t provide an estimate.

Most likely, the new jobs did not exceed 150,000, a figure that would merely keep even with population growth and thus not reduce the rate of unemployment, which, consistent with this deduction, remained constant.

Let’s look now at the kind of jobs that were created. Of the new jobs reported by BLS,
92% are in services. Of this 92%, only 7% could possibly relate to exportable services–architectural, engineering, and computer systems services.

Continue reading “Paul Craig Roberts: No Jobs for Citizens – Death Spiral”

2012/03/102012/03/10

John Robb: USG – Corporate Cyber Scam II

10 Security, 11 Society, Academia, Blog Wisdom, Commerce, Corruption, Government, IO Impotency, Misinformation & Propaganda, Money, Banks & Concentrated Wealth, Power Behind-the-Scenes/Special Interests, Secrecy & Politics of Secrecy

You Don't Need a Cyber Attack to Take Down The North American Power Grid

The Obama administration simulated a cyber attack on New York City's power supply in a Senate demonstration aimed at winning support for legislation to boost the nation's computer defenses. Senators from both parties gathered behind closed doors in the Capitol Wednesday for the classified briefing attended by Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, FBI Director Robert Mueller and other administration officials. The mock attack on the city during a summer heat wave was “very compelling,” said Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, who is co-sponsoring a cybersecurity bill supported by President Barack Obama. “It illustrated the problem and why legislation is desperately needed,” she said as she left the briefing. Bloomberg.

The US defense industry is in a full court press to get tens of billions in funding for cyberwarfare.

To get that funding, they need to dramatize the potential threat of cyberwarfare. Here's how. The central method of attack in cyberwarfare is systems disruption. Systems disruption is a way to break networks to achieve extremely high levels of damage (or, in financial terms, high ROIs). One of the best ways to demonstrate that type of attack is through a disruption of the power supply (usually with NYC as a target).

Two John Robb posts, comment, and see also — university grants at risk.

Continue reading “John Robb: USG – Corporate Cyber Scam II”

2012/03/082012/03/08

Yoda: Child-Driven Education, Convergence of Knowledge

04 Education, 11 Society, Advanced Cyber/IO, Blog Wisdom, Collaboration Zones, Communities of Practice, Ethics, Hacking, Methods & Process, Serious Games, Standards, Technologies, Threats, Tools

yoda with light saber — Got Crowd? BE the Force!

How Children’s Toys Reflect What’s Next in Technology & Education, March 5, 2012, PRAGMATIC VISIONS | by Jim Brazell

[Editor’s note: This is the first in a new column series from the pragmatic visionaries at the Thornburg Center for Professional Development for edtech digest]

“The availability of technologies to youth is its own instructor.” –Nobelist Herbert A. Simon (June 15, 1916 – February 9, 2001), Author of Science of the Artificial and a Father of Artificial Intelligence

EXTRACT: TOYS MIRROR WHAT’S NEXT IN TECHNOLOGY

In the same way that Erector Sets were patterned after the technologies of the third phase of the industrial revolution, the LEGO MindStorms kits reflect the structure of emerging technology and careers in the 21st Century. In 2006, Nano Quest from FIRST Robotics enabled students to program LEGO robots to mimic biological, chemical, and physical systems across micro-, meso-, and nano-scales.

Continue reading “Yoda: Child-Driven Education, Convergence of Knowledge”

2012/03/08

David Swanson: 10 Reasons to Stay in Afghanistan

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, Blog Wisdom, DoD, IO Impotency, Misinformation & Propaganda, Power Behind-the-Scenes/Special Interests

Top 10 Genius Reasons to Keep Troops in Afghanistan

David Swanson

WarIsACrime.org, 8 March 2012

1. When you're setting a record for the longest modern war, cutting it short just increases the chances of somebody breaking your record some day.

2. When Newt Gingrich, Cal Thomas, and Lindsey Graham turn against a war, keeping it going will really confuse Republicans.

3. If we pull U.S. troops out after they have shot children from helicopters, kicked in doors at night, waved Nazi flags, urinated on corpses, and burned Korans it will look like we're sorry they did those things.

4. U.S. tax dollars have been funding our troops, and through payments for safe passage on roads have also been the top source of income for the Taliban. Unilaterally withdrawing that funding from both sides of a war at the same time would be unprecedented and could devastate the booming Afghan economy.

5. The government we've installed in Afghanistan is making progress on its torture program and drug running and now supports wife beating. But it has not yet mandated invasive ultrasounds. We cannot leave with a job half-finished, not on International Women's Day.

6. We have an enormous prison full of prisoners in Afghanistan, and closing it down would distract us from our essential concentration on pretending to close Guantanamo.

7. Unless we keep “winning” in Afghanistan it will be very hard to generate enthusiasm for our wars in Syria and Iran. And with suicide the top killer of our troops, we cannot allow our men and women to be killing themselves in vain.

8. If we ended the war that created the 2001 authorization to use military force, how would we justify our special forces operations in over 100 other countries, the elimination of habeas corpus, or the legalization of murdering U.S. citizens? Besides, if we stay a few more years we might find an al Qaeda member.

9. A few hundred billion dollars a year is a small price to pay for weapons bases, a gas pipeline, huge profits for generous campaign funders, and a perfect testing ground for weapons that will be absolutely essential in our next pointless war.

10. Terror hasn't conceded defeat yet.

2012/03/082012/03/08

Betty Boop: Stratfor as a Neo-Con / Mossad Scam

07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, Analysis, Blog Wisdom, Commerce, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Director of National Intelligence et al (IC), Government, Intelligence (government), IO Impotency, Methods & Process, Officers Call

Responding to Richard Wright: USMC “Learns” From StratFor – Integrity? – We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Integrity

Back in 2002 while I was at a major Command, Friedman made a pitch to provide “ground truth” intelligence on contract. While some folks went gaga over his presentation, there were many small indicators that all was not well. Apparently Friedman was asked to leave LSU for reasons undetermined. Offically, according to STRATFOR ” In 1997, a small company that would eventually grow into Stratfor—called Strategic Intelligence LLC—left Baton Rouge and LSU, where its founder George Friedman had been a professor. A 1999 profile in Texas Monthly said the company “couldn't thrive” in Baton Rouge, and that's why Friedman took it to Austin, where it blossomed into a global powerhouse.”

Reasoning heard on the street by colleagues active in San Antonio, he was bankrolled by Mossad and they wanted him in an area of hightech.

I have read his comments about OSS and you specifically; his arrogance is unbelievable. His “analysts” are currently UT-Austin students with a couple of “seasoned veterans”, none of whom have an intelligence
background.

He has been described as a neocon and I think that fits. From where I sit, I think STRATFOR is finished, they are trying very hard to regain their client base….with little success…

Continue reading “Betty Boop: Stratfor as a Neo-Con / Mossad Scam”

2012/03/082012/03/08

NIGHTWATCH: Syria Ground Truth Tars West

08 Wild Cards, Blog Wisdom, Civil Society, Government, IO Impotency, Media, Peace Intelligence

Syria- Arab Red Crescent: Over the past few days, the Syrian Arab Red Crescent has distributed aid provided by the ICRC to the Bab Amr district of Homs, to Hama, Idlib, Deraa, rural Damascus and the eastern city of Raqqa, a spokesman said. “The situation as we see it today is that unrest is still taking place mainly in Hama, Deraa, Rural Damascus, Homs and Idlib,” Hassan said.

Opposition spokespeople said fighting was continuing in Homs, but a Red Crescent spokesman said that it was not. The Red Crescent teams found that the population had evacuated the Baba Amr district of Homs and the rest of the city was quiet.

Comment: The arrival of Red Crescent teams has provided some much needed ground truth reporting. The fighting in Homs has been concentrated in the Baba Amr district, which the government seized, but the residents apparently had already left along with the fighters. It remains difficult to develop a relatively unbiased view of the struggle. The Red Crescent statements suggest actual confrontations are occuring in neighborhoods of five towns and cities. That is far more limited than international media suggest.

Syria-UK: British Prime Minister David Cameron told a hearing at the House of Commons Liaison Committee on 6 March that his government provided cash and equipment to foreign-backed rebels in Syria under such names as “aid agencies” operating on the ground to help deliver food and emergency medical supplies, Press TV reported.

Comment: Cameron's admission in conjunction with the capture of the 13 French officers tends to confirm the Syrian government's consistent contention that the opposition is made up of outside troublemakers. The Syrian situation in no way resembles Libya and accurate information is just not available, except one fact. There are no significant and sustained operations in Damascus. Until they occur, the regime will survive.

NIGHTWATCH KGS Home

See Also:

NIGHTWATCH on Syria at Phi Beta Iota

Search: map of sunni and shiite muslim groups

2012/03/062012/03/07

DefDog: Jim Clapper On Way Out? + RECAP

Corruption, Director of National Intelligence et al (IC), Government, IO Impotency, Officers Call, Policies

Surprise, surprise…..such a disaster it could be a blessing in disguise…his replacement? General Flynn, the individual who said intel
in Afghanistan was a failure…..and it is.

DNI Jim Clapper Out in Fall? Rumor Mill Says Maybe

Colin Clark

WASHINGTON: Jim Clapper, the first Director of National Intelligence to order budget cuts across the intelligence community, may be leaving his post this fall.

Or, then again, he may not. At this stage, all is rumor. So far, we've got three people with good intelligence connections saying Clapper is likely on the way out. We've got one former senior intelligence saying it is not likely.

But as so often with the intelligence community, rumors possess value because they indicate perception as much as fact. There may be senior Obama administration officials who would like to see Clapper gone. He is a career military man heading a “civilian” intelligence community and there's another such fish over at CIA named Petraeus. And we all know how they treated retired Adm. Dennis Blair.

Also, two of the sources for the rumor may have a strong institutional interest in Clapper's departure. But we can't say more for fear of blowing their cover.

A source with excellent intelligence community access had a specific piece of information. “Clapper was told he is no longer valued….back in October. General Cartwright was offered the job but declined,” this source said in an email.

A former senior Pentagon intelligence official told us that Clapper has said “how much he values working for this President and this administration” and tells him that the administration has demonstrated “their respect for and understanding of the business of intelligence. I¹d be quite surprised to see Jim step down if either a re-elected Obama or newly elected successor asked him to stay on.”

This source also made a key point. The DNI job carries so few benefits and so many responsibilities and is so disliked or distrusted by so many in the intelligence community that, “few qualified people” would “even remotely yearn for the DNI position.” Given all that, this source said, “I think we should all hope that Jim hangs in there.”

Will he? Let us know what you're hearing. — // —

Robert Steele Comments and Links Below the Line.

Continue reading “DefDog: Jim Clapper On Way Out? + RECAP”