NIGHTWATCH Extract: Egypt Dictator-Domino Falling?

07 Other Atrocities, 09 Justice, 10 Security, 11 Society, Advanced Cyber/IO, Civil Society, Counter-Oppression/Counter-Dictatorship Practices, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Peace Intelligence

Egypt: A spokesman for Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood announced that the group is making five urgent demands which the Egyptian government should comply with in order to avert several crises, according to a 19 January posting on the Muslim Brotherhood website.

Muhammad Mursi said the group wants Cairo to revoke the state of emergency, dissolve the People’s Assembly and hold free and fair elections, amend the constitutional articles that led to vote rigging in Egypt’s last elections, hold presidential elections according to those amendments, and fire the current government and form a national unity government responsive to the Egyptian people’s demands.

Comment: The Brothers are belatedly trying to take advantage of the Tunisian uprising. Mubarak could die at any time, but as long as he possesses his faculties he will not fall for lies by his personal security chief, as did Tunisia’s Ben Ali, and will not be intimidated by the Brotherhood.

NIGHTWATCH KGS Home

Phi Beta Iota: Dictators will fall before faux democracies because they are on the thinnest ice in the face of angry connected young people with legitimate grievances.  The PowerShift that Alvin and Heidi Toffler anticipated in the 19990’s has begun to occur.  The other threat to civilization can be found in fundamentalists and relativists–those who treat faith as a cult or faith as a convenience.  It is a mistake to regard the Muslim Brotherhood as threatening–they are more of an indications & warning.  When  the right precipitant comes along, Egypt will fall, and the other 43 dictators will follow in relatively quick (ten years) time.  Now is when US covert action could shine, but first the White House and Congress and the military-industrial complex must be weaned of their love of dictators.  This is also a time when holistic all-source analysis could shine, helping guide a 180 degree turn away from dictators and toward democracy in time for the 2012 “Awakening.”

See Also:

Continue reading “NIGHTWATCH Extract: Egypt Dictator-Domino Falling?”

NIGHTWATCH Extract: Dictators vs Iran in Middle East

02 Diplomacy, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 05 Iran, 08 Wild Cards, 11 Society, 12 Water, History

Syria-Saudi Arabia-Lebanon: Syria and Saudi Arabia pledged to support efforts to stabilize Lebanon and preserve its security and unity, Reuters reported 29 July. A joint statement from Saudi King Abdullah and Syrian President Bashar al Asad also called for better inter-Arab relations, praised Turkey’s support for the Palestinians and called for the formation of a government in Iraq to preserve the nation’s Arab identity and security.

NIGHTWATCH Comment: The King has undertaken another strenuous trip through Arab lands to build an Arab front that blocks Iranian influence in Syria and inroads in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. The Syrian Alawites, the Sunni Palestinians of Hamas and the Shiite Arabs of Lebanese Hezbollah have afforded the Persians unprecedented access to Arab lands and business.

The Saudi King continues to try to limit or reverse the damage to what passes for Arab unity from Iranian subversion. Thus far his energies have been misspent. His initiatives have not weakened Iranian influence in any of the three target entities.

NIGHTWATCH KGS Home

Phi Beta Iota: Ambassador Mark Palmer has it right–the US should not be supporting dictators (nor, we would add, a genocidal Zionist movement that joins the Arabs against the Palistinians).  See Review: Breaking the Real Axis of Evil–How to Oust the World’s Last Dictators by 2025.  Will and Ariel Durant also have it right: morality is a strategic asset of incalculable value.  See Review: The Lessons of History.

See Also:

Review: Palestine–Peace Not Apartheid

Review: Unspeakable Truths–Facing the Challenges of Truth Commissions (Paperback)

Review: The Health of Nations–Society and Law beyond the State

Review: The leadership of civilization building–Administrative and civilization theory, symbolic dialogue, and citizen skills for the 21st century

and all  the book lists.

Journal: Missile Defense as a Metaphor

Collaboration Zones, Communities of Practice, Ethics, Key Players, Policies, Threats
Strategic Analytic Matrix
Strategic Analytic Matrix

The Obama Administration means well, no question about it.  They simply do not know what they do not know, and no one within the US Intelligence Community appears capable of speaking truth to power.

The truth that needs to be spoken is that Washington lacks both integrity and intelligence (as in thoughtful holistic decision-making).  Washington lacks a strategic analytic model, it lacks a commitment to eradicating the ten high-level threats to humanity (terrorism is ninth, a traffic accident, nothing more), and it lacks a process for harmonizing budgets and behavior across twelve core policy domains as illustrated below.

Continue reading “Journal: Missile Defense as a Metaphor”

Review: Getting to Zero Waste

5 Star, Environment (Solutions)
Amazon Page

First to Market, More to Come

September 3, 2008

Paul Palmer

The concept discussed by this book has been recently featured The Necessary Revolution: How Individuals And Organizations Are Working Together to Create a Sustainable World, and I therefore anticipate a flood of books on this topic, but hopefully helping each specific industry get to its own understanding.

Other books I recommend include:
Pandora’s Poison: Chlorine, Health, and a New Environmental Strategy
High Tech Trash: Digital Devices, Hidden Toxics, and Human Health
The Blue Death: Disease, Disaster, and the Water We Drink
Cradle to Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make Things
Green to Gold: How Smart Companies Use Environmental Strategy to Innovate, Create Value, and Build Competitive Advantage
Green Chemistry and the Ten Commandments of Sustainability, 2nd ed
Natural Capitalism: Creating the Next Industrial Revolution
High Noon 20 Global Problems, 20 Years to Solve Them
The Future of Life

Vote and/or Comment on Review

Threat Archives on Public Intelligence (1992-2006)

Threats

2004

NO

ThreatBjorgoRoot Causes of Terrorism

2004

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ThreatKaplanThe Saudi Connection to Terrorism

2004

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ThreatKnappAl Qaeda and the Mass Media (PSYOP Briefing)

2004

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ThreatKnappAl Qaeda and the Mass Media (Reference)

2004

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ThreatKnappDistortion in Islam and Jihad

2004

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ThreatKnappDiversity in Islam

2006

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ThreatDalyAl Qaeda Against Saudi Oil

2006

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ThreatJohnsonBattle of Algiers and Its Lessons

2006

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ThreatSeagravesGold Warriors: New Epilogue, Further of US Theft of WWII Gold Loot

2006

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ThreatSeagravesGold Warriors New Chapter Seventeen

2006

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ThreatSteeleWho Is to Blamce?  The Vice President and Us

2006

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ThreatSternAl Qaeda Approach to US Muslims

2006

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ThreatStoryCrunch Time for CIA, Banks, and Related Thieves of $742 Trillion

2005

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ThreatEllisScenarios for Next Generation Crises in Latin America

2005

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ThreatGAOGAO Report: US Not Addressing Islamic Fundamentalism

2005

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ThreatOSSSomalia Piracy Quick Report

2005

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ThreatOSSReport on Remote Detonation of Improvised Explosive Devices

2005

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ThreatOSSPRC Trade in Latin America

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ThreatRay & GrossThe Perfect Storm

2005

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ThreatSteeleWorksheet for Book Review on Crossing the Rubicon

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ThreatSteeleMother Nature as Terrorist

2005

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ThreatSteele9-11: Who’s To Blame?  One Man’s Opinion

2005

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ThreatThompsonIs the Terrorism Threat Over-Rated?

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ThreatDalyGlobalization & National Defense (Ecological Economics)

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ThreatLouisianaPre-Hurricane Katrina Study and Conclusions

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ThreatPalmerThe Real Axis of Evil: 44 Dictators

2004

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ThreatPetersEarly Warning of Disease From Pattern Analysis

2004

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ThreatSeagraveTranscript of Video on Stolen Gold Held by US Treasury & Citi-Bank

2004

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ThreatVlahosAttachment to the Muslim Renovatio Memorandum

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ThreatVlahosThe Muslim Renovatio and U.S. Strategy

2004

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ThreatVlahosThe Muslims Are Coming

2004

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ThreatVlahosInsurgency Within Islam

2003

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ThreatDanzipCountering Traumatic Attacks

2003

PRC

ThreatOSSPRC Treaty & Trade Penetration of Latin America

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ThreatEmerson & SteeleAmerican Jihad Map

2002

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ThreatSteeleACFR, 19 Cities: 9-11, U.S. Intelligence, & the Real World

2000

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ThreatSteeleGeorgetown/AWC: Non-Traditional Threats

1998

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ThreatSteeleTAKEDOWN: Targets, Tools, & Technocracy

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ThreatSteele6th National Threat Symposium: New Directions in Information Sharing

2005

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ThreatNGOChanging Face of Global Violence

2005

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ThreatNGOHuman Security Audit

2004

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ThreatPeltonRobert Young Pelton on Dangerous World

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ThreatSteeleThree Book Review Relevant to Global War on Terror (GWOT)

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ThreatCopelandAnalysis of the New Paradigm for Terrorism

2003

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ThreatManwaringStreet Gangs: New Urban Insurgency

2003

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ThreatManwaringWar & Conflict: Six Generations

2003

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ThreatPeltonSummary of Presentation on World’s Most Dangerous Places

2002

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ThreatBettsThe Next Intelligence Failure: The Limits of Prevention

2002

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ThreatJongmanWorld Conflict and Human Rights Map 2001-2002

2002

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ThreatWheatonTransitions from Authoritarian Rule: A Model

2002

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ThreatWheatonVirtual Afghanistan: Modeling a Transition from Authoritarian Rule

2001

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ThreatGodsonGovernments and Gangs

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ThreatHeidenrichEarly Warning & Complex Monitoring of Ethnic Genocide (Slides)

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ThreatHeidenrichEarly Warning & Complex Monitoring of Ethnic Genocide (Text)

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ThreatTransnational Enemies: Threats Without Names

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ThreatGlaebusMetaphors & Modern Threats: Biological, Computer, Cognitive Viruses

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ThreatFialkaWar by Other Means: Economic Espionage In (Against) America

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ThreatSchwartauInformation Warfare: The Weapons of the Information Age

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ThreatTenneyCyber-Law and Cyber-Crime: Spamming Methods and Costs

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ThreatKeuhlSchool of Information Warfare Threat and Strategy: Shifting Paradigms

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ThreatO’MalleyCountering the Business Intelligence Threat

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ThreatStrassmannU.S. Knowledge Assets: The Choice Target for Information Crime

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ThreatWinklerElectronic Industrial Espionage: Defining Ground Zero

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ThreatWhitney-SmithRefugees: Weapon of the Post Cold War World–Counter Offensive: IW

2004 Palmer (US) Achieving Universal Democracy by Eliminating All Dictators within the Decade

02 Diplomacy, 10 Security, 11 Society, Government, Historic Contributions, Peace Intelligence, Policy, Threats
Mark Palmer
Mark Palmer

Ambassador Mark Palmer is one of the most thoughtful, focused, practical, and hence impressive professional diplomats we have ever encountered.  His book, Defeating the Real Axis of Evil, made a profound impression on all of us thinking about how to create a prosperous world at peace, and was the final nail in the coffin of U.S. foreign policy–no foreign policy that relies on supporting 42 of 44 dictators can possibly have morality, legitimacy, reciprocity, or transparency, all vital attributes if we are to nuture humanity toward clarity, diversity, integrity, and sustainability.  Our review of the below book is entitled: Single Most Important Work of the Century for American Moral Diplomacy, and was posted November 30, 2003.  We still believe that.

Mark Palmer
Mark Palmer

Below is his presentation to OSS ’04.

Mark Palmer
Mark Palmer