Journal: Get America Working–A Conversation

Analysis, Budgets & Funding, Collaboration Zones, Collective Intelligence, Communities of Practice, Corporations, Ethics, InfoOps (IO), Intelligence (government), International Aid, IO Sense-Making, Key Players, Methods & Process, Money, Banks & Concentrated Wealth, Officers Call, Open Government, Policies, Policy, Power Behind-the-Scenes/Special Interests, Real Time, Strategy, Threats
Open Everything

PART I: The Only Way to Fix the Deficit–Multiply Jobs (William Drayton)

PART II: Nice Ideas But So Is Icing Cover Feces (Robert Steele)

PART III:  Create Jobs?  As an End In Themselves?  To Do What?  Why? (Alexander Carpenter)

PART IV:  Related Recommended Reading (Robert Steele)

The core take-away (from PART III)

Beyond its inherent merit and explicit substance, William Drayton: The Only Way to Fix the Deficit: Multiply Jobs is a great example of unconscious status-seeking righteousness – well-meaning ineptitude and irrelevance, trapped in the old paradigm of debt-money, growth, and social conditioning. This kind of thinking is exemplary of people who are focused on the superficial “economic crisis,” not going deeper to see that we have a political (and even a social) crisis with, of course, an economic manifestation. This represents the success of the pseudo-science of “economics,” originally created with the intention to get most people to believe that objective “natural” forces are running their lives, not other people, classes, and institutions (Thurmond Arnold, 1937). Good problem-solvers always begin with as much accurate information about the overall problem as possible. It's incompetent – or unconscious self-deception – to assume human nature isn't the core and essence of the problem, and Bill Drayton isn't necessarily incompetent…

Perspective (from PART III Reference):

“By providing the funding and the policy framework to many concerned and dedicated people working within the non-profit sector, the ruling class is able to co-opt leadership from grassroots communities, … and is able to make the funding, accounting, and evaluation components of the work so time consuming and onerous that social justice work is virtually impossible under these conditions” (Paul Kivel, You Call this Democracy, Who Benefits, Who Pays and Who Really Decides, 2004, p. 122 )

Phi Beta Iota: In Advanced Information Operations (IO) terms, we cannot fix the military until we fix government, we cannot fix government until we fix Wall Street and Main Street,  we cannot fix the economy until we fix the society, and all of that requires a firm focus on human nature and the relations among humans.  We live is a “whole system” and are mis-managing it by being ignorant and delusional about root causes and actual relationships.  Until we get the truth on the table, we cannot deal with it.  Good news:  all it takes is ONE node able to blend intelligence & integrity, that “spike” will proliferate.  The bottom line is that DEMAND creates jobs, and EDUCATION creates the demand for the RIGHT jobs.  Taking one example, the US Army, it could apply Advanced Information Operations to create a 180 degree maturation of the mind-set of its personnel, and use that to “eat the old” and create the new.  The US Army is going to suffer a nose dive in financial resources (as will the other services); the US Army is the ONLY service that must might be capable of “beating the dive” by re-inventing itself from inside out–starting with Advanced IO being about minds, not technology.  Similarly, a single multinational could “get a grip” and re-invent itself overnight–the example will proliferate.

Continue reading “Journal: Get America Working–A Conversation”

Journal: Future Hotspots?

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 06 Russia, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, Military
DefDog Recommends...

Forecast 2011: Conflict Hotspots

23 December 2010

Protestor with face mask walks past street fire and crowds of other protestors, courtesy of Faramarz Hashemi/flickrPolitical hotzones 2011?

Where in the world will conflict flare in the new year? This special, expanded edition of ISN Insights examines three hotzones beyond the headlines: Pakistan, Tajikistan and the Northern Caucasus.


This special ISN Insights package contains the following content, easily navigated along the tab structure above – or via the hyperlinks below:

A 2011 Pakistani political forecast by Gregory Copley, President of the International Strategic Studies Association, who predicts a watershed year ahead for the Islamic Republic.

A look forward to the potential for further proliferation of terrorist activity in the North Caucasus – and how Russia should address it by Simon Saradzhyan, research fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center.

A close examination of Tajikistan's make-or-break year ahead by John CK Daly, non-resident fellow at the Johns Hopkins Central Asia-Caucasus Institute.

See Also:

Review: Zones of Conflict–An Atlas of Future Wars

Review: The Water Atlas–A Unique Visual Analysis of the World’s Most Critical Resource

Journal: Covert War in Pakistan–Lessons Not Learned

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, Cultural Intelligence, Government, IO Multinational, IO Sense-Making, Military
Thomas Leo Briggs

Something caught my eye while reading a Slate item written by Tom Scocca and posted on December 20, 2010, “Two Ways of Looking at Our Covert War in Pakistan.”

Mr. Scocca wrote:

“There are diplomatic tensions because we are fighting a full-on undeclared war on the territory of a country with which we are an ally, using covert agents as the commanding officers”.

So what’s new?  Didn’t we fight a full-on undeclared war on the territory of Laos from about 1961 to 1973?  Wasn’t Laos an ally while trying to maintain the fig-leaf of neutrality?  Wasn’t the United States government using ‘covert agents as commanding officers’?

Moreover the New York Times published an article by Mark Mazzetti and Dexter Filkins the same day titled “U.S. Military Seeks to Expand Raids in Pakistan”.

In particular I noticed the following that Mazzetti and Filkins attributed to senior military commanders in Afghanistan.

Continue reading “Journal: Covert War in Pakistan–Lessons Not Learned”

Journal: Wind Power Boondoggle–and the Information Operations (IO) Challenge of Energy and Time in Relation to Policy, Acquisition, and Operations

Advanced Cyber/IO, Analysis, Budgets & Funding, Collective Intelligence, Communities of Practice, Counter-Oppression/Counter-Dictatorship Practices, Earth Intelligence, Ethics, History, InfoOps (IO), Intelligence (government), IO Multinational, IO Sense-Making, Key Players, Methods & Process, Officers Call, Open Government, Peace Intelligence, Policies, Strategy, Threats
Chuck Spinney Recommends...

My good friend Robert Bryce, author of the must-read Power Hungry: The Myths of ‘Green' Energy and the Real Fuels of the Future just launched this little torpedo.

A Wind Power Boonedoggle

T. Boone Pickens badly misjudged the supply and price of natural gas.

By ROBERT BRYCE, Wall Street Journal, 22 December 2010

After 30 months, countless TV appearances, and $80 million spent on an extravagant PR campaign, T.

Boone Pickens has finally admitted the obvious: The wind energy business isn't a very good one.

Read full article….

Click to Enlarge

Phi Beta Iota: Buckminster Fuller and Russell Ackoff nailed it–everything has to be evaluated in relation to energy source and cost and time cost, and you have to focus on doing the right things, not doing the wrong things righter.  Where Mr. Pickens went wrong was in sticking with the centralized ownership concept.  Wind power and solar power are best for localized applications.  The central grid–the Industrial Era top down control grid, is DEAD.  Similarly, water and sewage should not be centralized grids demanding massive investments in collection and processing.  The graphic to the right shows corruption in the center–when analytics and decision-making lose their holistic integrity, they inevitably fail to achieve the desired outcome while creating cascading costs everywhere else.  Military spending in the USA is at the beginning of a nose dive–our military leaders would be wise to get a grip sooner than later, and “beat the dive” by making evidence-based decisions (Advanced IO) sooner than later.  Now a really advanced thought: 21st Century national security is about eradicating corruption at home and abroad–this makes possible the creation of a prosperous world at peace.  The breadth of that challenge is in the graphic below.  That is an IO challenge, not a kinetic challenge.  IO must be co-equal to kinetics beginning immediately.  In our humble opinion.

Click to Enlarge

See Also:

Journal: ‘Systemic Corruption’–Daunting Challenge in Globalized Era

Reference: Frog 6 Guidance 2010-2020

Reference: Transparency Killer App Plus “Open Everything” RECAP (Back to 01/2007)

Reference: Cultures of Resistance–A Look at Global Militarization

Journal: Israel Persists on Polard–an Information Operations (IO) Case Study

07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Justice, 10 Security, 11 Society, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, IO Sense-Making, Military, Officers Call
Marcus Aurelius Recommends

In Wash Post article on CIA's Wikileaks TF, passed u/s/c, the following quote closes the piece, “the former high-ranking CIA officer said. “Nobody could carry out enough paper to do what WikiLeaks has done.””  Not sure that's true.  Open source reporting not long after his trial indicated that Pollard hand carried tremendous volumes of paper documents out of his office to the Israelis; if memory serves, it amounted to hundreds of cubic feet.  Volume was so great that the Israelis set up a safesite equipped with a copying machine of significant capability so that they could quickly copy Pollard's offerings and let him carry them back to the office.

New York Times December 22, 2010 Pg. 6

Israel Plans Public Appeal To Ask U.S. To Free A Spy

By Isabel Kershner

JERUSALEM — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel will officially and publicly appeal to President Obama in the coming days for the release of Jonathan Jay Pollard, the American serving a life term in a North Carolina prison for spying for Israel, Mr. Netanyahu’s office announced Tuesday.

Read rest of article that makes clear Israel believes it can win on this perfidious demand.

Phi Beta Iota: The facts are clear.  Pollard approached other governments before he approached Israel.  His elevation into a national hero to be brought home to accolades is perfectly consistent with what every Jewish male cutting a swath through Christian girls accepts as his mantra: “Chiksas don't count.”  Evidently the crew and families of the USS Liberty don't count either.  We strongly support the US Intelligence Community's view that Pollard is a traitor and should die in prison.  We also strongly support the need to for a comprehensive review of how every US taxpayer dollar is spent in the Middle East, with the objective of ending military support to dictators and financial support to Israel.  Creating a regional water and educational trust makes more sense to us.  At the same time, the fact is that at least three quarters of what we have classified should not be classified, and we are out of touch with unclassified reality across all ten high-level threats.  We need to heal ourselves before we attempt to heal others, Pollard is an excellent case study of how out of touch both Israel and the White House are with reality.

NIGHTWATCH Extracts: Koreas, Iran, Sudan

05 Iran, 08 Wild Cards, IO Sense-Making, Peace Intelligence

South Korea: For the first time in seven years, South Korea has lit a 100-foot tower in the shape of a Christmas triee with 100,000 Christmas lights and topped it with a cross, along the Demilitarized Zone. A choir sang Christmas carols. The tower and carols could be seen and heard in North Korea.

. . . . . . .

Afghanistan-Iran: Iran is blocking almost 2,000 fuel tankers from crossing the border into Afghanistan, saying the trucks would supply U.S.-led coalition troops, according to Afghan officials. The unannounced blockade is in its third week, and Afghan officials do not know when fuel imports will resume, Afghan Deputy Minister of Commerce Sharif Shairifi said.

. . . . . . .

Sudan: Update. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi and Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Abdelaziz held talks with Sudanese President Omar al Bashir and Southern Sudanese leader Salva Kiir in Khartoum on 21 December in anticipation of the coming referendum on Southern Sudanese independence.

NIGHTWATCH KGS Home

Phi Beta Iota: All three pieces with the commentary are worth reading.  Even when wrong, the intellectual process and insights of the NIGHTWATCH leader are authentic, deep, and a real pleasure to consider.

1.  Wrong.  South Korea should not be provoking the North, and the US is long overdue from pulling out of South Korea.  This is a regional matter and like Germany, reunification is inevitable.  Meanwhile, the US military and the US taxpayer should not be burdened.

2.  Right.  Iran is Persia, and complicated.  The US supply lines to Afghanistan, and US cultural and doctrinal inadequacies in Afghanistan, combined with the FACT that it is costing the US taxpayer $50 million per Taliban body, the US is PAYING for the Taliban drug crop, and the US is blindly accepting of Karzai's deep deep corruption, all argue for a redirection of attention away from Afghanistan and toward respectful engagement with the Iran-Turkey axis of sensibility.

3.  Wrong.  Sudan is a bomb waiting to explode.  They may go through the motion of a vote, but the raw fact that the south has the wealth and the north has nothing means that strategic instability is inevitable.  Absent a regional plan to achieve tolerable prosperity for all, this is theater.  The US and the Arabs are settling for theater over thinking.

2011 Top 10 Cyber Predictions (and Then Some)

Collaboration Zones, Communities of Practice, Computer/online security, Cyberscams, malware, spam, InfoOps (IO), IO Multinational, IO Sense-Making, IO Technologies, Key Players, Methods & Process, Mobile, Officers Call, Policies, Real Time, Secrecy & Politics of Secrecy, Standards, Strategy, Technologies, Threats

2011 Top 10 Cyber Predictions

Posted by Anup Ghosh on December 16, 2010

Everybody is putting out their Top 10 lists of predictions for 2011. Not to be left out of the party, below is a list of what we expect to see in 2011 in Cyber Security.

1.  Malware.

2.  Blame the User.

3.  Reactive approaches to security will continue to fail.

4.  Major Breaches in Sectors with Intellectual Property.

5.  Hacktivists will bask in their new-found glory.

6.  Critical Infrastructure Attacks.

7.  Hello Android.

8.  Windows Kernel Exploits.

9.  Organized Crime rises.

10.  Congress will rear its head.

Read full paragraph that goes with each of the above….

Phi Beta Iota: Nothing wrong with any of the above, except that they are out of context.  As the still-valid cyber-threat slide created by Mitch Kabay in the 1990's shows, 70% of our losses have nothing to do with disgruntled or dishonest insiders, or external attacks including viruses.  Cyber has not been defined, in part because the Human Intelligence crowd does not compute circuits, and the circuit crowd do not computer human intelligence.  We are at the very beginning of a startling renaissance in cyber/Information Operations (IO) in which–we predict–existing and near-term hardware and software vulnerabilities will be less than 30% of the problem.  Getting analog Cold War leaders into new mind-sets, and educating all hands toward sharing rather than hoarding, toward multinational rather than unilateral, will be key aspects of our progress.  Cyber is life, life is cyber–it's all connected.  Stove-piped “solutions” make it worse.

See Also:

Graphic: OODA Loop (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act)

Journal: 1 in 4 Fail US Army Extrance Exam

Journal: Development at Gunpoint? Wasteful & Wrong

Undersea Cables: The Achilles Heel of our Economies

Journal: NSA Assumes It Has Been Compromised…Correct!

Reference: Frog 6 Guidance 2010-2020