NIGHTWATCH Extract: Tunisian Political Theater

07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 11 Society, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government

NIGHTWATCH EXTRACT Tunisia: Update. The Tunisian army fired into the air to disperse protesters from the headquarters of former President Ben Ali's Constitutional Democratic Rally (CDR) in Tunis. The CDR has been disbanded but some demonstrators want the building razed. The state of emergency remains in effect.

The interim government met for the first time today. The session concluded with a number of decrees.

The government ordered a general amnesty for all political prisoners, reduction of the curfew everywhere except Tunis, and the reopening of schools and universities next Monday. It also agreed to recognize all previously banned political parties and declared three days of mourning for the 78 people killed during the recent uprising.

In his address, the interim president and former Speaker of the Parliament stressed the temporary character of this government, and determined its tasks to be:

– to make sure that all enterprises get back to normal business;

– to prepare for the forthcoming presidential elections.

NIGHTWATCH Comment: The interim president and the prime minister both resigned from the RCD, in which both had been longstanding members. They directed other hold-over cabinet members to resign in today's cabinet session.

The political activities are almost surreal. The holdover political leaders apparently think a “do-over” will be sufficient to correct the authoritarian excesses of the past 23 years. Thus far Tunisians are acquiescing in this bizarre exercise. Meanwhile, the economic grievances that gave rise to street demonstrations remain unaddressed.

NIGHTWATCH KGS Home

Phi Beta Iota: The well-mannered unethical among us will be quick to scorn the above headline, but the comment says it all.  Buckminster Fuller was among the first in modern history to point out that the White House was theater, and many others have addressed the huge gap between reality and the images that Wall Street and Washington seek to communicate.  Advanced cyber-information operations have been perfected by the financial crime network within which the two political parties are fully complicit co-conspirators.   There are 63 other parties in America that have been disenfranchised, and the electoral system is as corrupt as any abroad including that of Tunisia.  The current financial and political leadership of the USA really thinks that a “do-over” (the other term is “make-over”) will quiet things down.  This isn't just moving deck chairs on the sinking Titanic; this is re-arranging deck chairs floating in the icy waters of the North and pretending the ship of state is still there.

Reference: Intelligence for the Spirit of Assisi

Advanced Cyber/IO, Budgets & Funding, Collective Intelligence, Collective Intelligence, Commercial Intelligence, Communities of Practice, Counter-Oppression/Counter-Dictatorship Practices, Cultural Intelligence, Earth Intelligence, Ethics, Geospatial, Gift Intelligence, History, info-graphics/data-visualization, InfoOps (IO), International Aid, Journalism/Free-Press/Censorship, Key Players, Memoranda, Methods & Process, Mobile, Open Government, Peace Intelligence, Policies, Policy, Politics of Science & Science of Politics, Power Behind-the-Scenes/Special Interests, Real Time, Reform, Research resources, Secrecy & Politics of Secrecy, Standards, Strategy, Technologies, Threats, Tools, True Cost, Waste (materials, food, etc)
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Letter to His Holiness Pope Benedict XVI

Steele Book Profile

Resume Robert David STEELE Vivas M4IS2

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28 Jan Seven Answers–Robert Steele in Rome

27 Jan Assisi-Rome 2nd Meeting

27 Jan Reference: Correspondence on Assisi Intelligence

16 Jan Event: 26 Oct 2011 Assisi Italy Pope, Peace, & Prayer — 5th Inter-Faith Event Since 1986 — Terms of Reference…

Worth a Look: Book Review Lists (Positive)

Worth a Look: Book Review Lists (Negative)

INDICATIONS & WARNING: Political Violence Forecasts

Cultural Intelligence, Peace Intelligence
Berto Jongman Recommends...

Predictive Societal Indicators of Radicalism

In collaboration with our academic partners Prof. Cingranelli at the Political Science Department, SUNY Binghamton University and Profs. Sam Bell and Amanda Murdie at the Department of Political Science, Kansas State University, we developed a Domestic Political Violence Model that forecasts political violence levels five years into the future. The model enables policymakers, particularly in the COCOMs, to proactively plan for instances of increased domestic political violence, with implications for resource allocation and intelligence asset assignment. Our model uses the IDEA dataset for political event coding, plus numerous indicators from the CIRI Human Rights Dataset, Polity IV Dataset, World Bank, OECD, Correlates of War project, and Fearon and Laitin datasets.

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Here is our model’s forecast for 2010 – 2014 as a ranked list:

1. Iran  .  2. Sri Lanka  .  3. Russia  .  4. Georgia  .  5. Israel  .  6. Turkey  .  7. Burundi  .  8. Chad  .  9. Honduras  .  10. Czech Republic  .  11. China  .  12. Italy  .  13. Colombia  .  14. Ukraine  .  15.  Indonesia  .  16. Malaysia  .  17. Jordan  .  18. Mexico  .  19. Kenya  .  20.  South Africa  .  21.  Ireland  .  22. Peru  .  23. Chile  .  24. Armenia  .  25. Tunisia  .  26. Democratic Republic of the Congo  .  27. Belarus  .  28. Argentina  .  29. Albania  .  30. Ecuador  .  31. Sudan  .  32. Austria  .  33. Nigeria  .  34. Syria  .  35. Kyrgyz Republic  .  36. Egypt  .  37. Belgium

Continue reading “INDICATIONS & WARNING: Political Violence Forecasts”

NIGHTWATCH Extract: Egypt Dictator-Domino Falling?

07 Other Atrocities, 09 Justice, 10 Security, 11 Society, Advanced Cyber/IO, Civil Society, Counter-Oppression/Counter-Dictatorship Practices, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Peace Intelligence

Egypt: A spokesman for Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood announced that the group is making five urgent demands which the Egyptian government should comply with in order to avert several crises, according to a 19 January posting on the Muslim Brotherhood website.

Muhammad Mursi said the group wants Cairo to revoke the state of emergency, dissolve the People's Assembly and hold free and fair elections, amend the constitutional articles that led to vote rigging in Egypt's last elections, hold presidential elections according to those amendments, and fire the current government and form a national unity government responsive to the Egyptian people's demands.

Comment: The Brothers are belatedly trying to take advantage of the Tunisian uprising. Mubarak could die at any time, but as long as he possesses his faculties he will not fall for lies by his personal security chief, as did Tunisia's Ben Ali, and will not be intimidated by the Brotherhood.

NIGHTWATCH KGS Home

Phi Beta Iota: Dictators will fall before faux democracies because they are on the thinnest ice in the face of angry connected young people with legitimate grievances.  The PowerShift that Alvin and Heidi Toffler anticipated in the 19990's has begun to occur.  The other threat to civilization can be found in fundamentalists and relativists–those who treat faith as a cult or faith as a convenience.  It is a mistake to regard the Muslim Brotherhood as threatening–they are more of an indications & warning.  When  the right precipitant comes along, Egypt will fall, and the other 43 dictators will follow in relatively quick (ten years) time.  Now is when US covert action could shine, but first the White House and Congress and the military-industrial complex must be weaned of their love of dictators.  This is also a time when holistic all-source analysis could shine, helping guide a 180 degree turn away from dictators and toward democracy in time for the 2012 “Awakening.”

See Also:

Continue reading “NIGHTWATCH Extract: Egypt Dictator-Domino Falling?”

COUNTER-PROOFS: Global Warming Flood & Fraud

03 Environmental Degradation, Academia, Advanced Cyber/IO, Commerce, Corruption, Earth Intelligence, Government
Chuck Spinney Recommends....

The flooding in Australia is almost certainly related to the latest ongoing La Nina episode.

What was the role of warmists in the Queensland flood disaster?

Australia was told to prepare for droughts as a result of climate change, and let down its guard against flooding, writes Christopher Booker

Full article….

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The ‘anomalies’ of Dr Rajendra Pachauri’s charity accounts

Why did the Charities Commission let the European wing of Rajendra Pachauri's empire get away with such poor accounting, asks Christopher Booker.

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Journal: UN IPCC, Al Gore, & Big Doubts [Links]

2012: Predictions & Possibilities

Advanced Cyber/IO, Cultural Intelligence, Earth Intelligence

Phi Beta Iota: The October 2011 Peace Summit being hosted by Pope BenedictXVI is a useful touchstone for reviewing the many predictions and possibilities that have been forecast with astonishing precision and documentation down through the ages.  There are two divergent interpretations; Phi Beta Iota accepts the second.

1.  End of Humanity–apocalypse, nuclear wars, plagues, red tides killing all sea life, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.  extraterrestrials optional.

2.  Wake-Up Call for Humanity–a convergence of exposed evils and the emergence of a much greater collective compassion and collective intelligence than most have imagined–from this, a “great turning.”

Here is one web site that presents a full range of predictions & possibilities:  2012 Predictions, and below, its active index:

New AgeMayaAstronomy and spaceAstrologyEnvironmentMedia, science and technologyHealthPolitics, social and economicsReligionOther 2012 directoriesDocumentaries and filmsArticlesEvents…Precognitions and dreamsSpoofs and Satires

See Also:

Worth a Look: Book Review Lists (Positive)

Event: 26 Oct 2011 Assisi Italy Pope, Peace, & Prayer — 5th Inter-Faith Event Since 1986 — Terms of Reference…

DELIBERATION: Jim Turner Dissects Paul Krugman

07 Other Atrocities, 11 Society, Civil Society, Cultural Intelligence

Jim Turner, #2 to Ralph Nader in the day, is co-author of VOICE OF THE PEOPLE–The Transpartisan Imperative in American Life.  This is his contribution to the current dialog.

My view is that Krugman's article —

America is divided by two very different views of government
Saturday, January 15, 2011

— as usual for him, is a clear and articulate presentation of the Order Left position.  Like his counterparts on the Order Right, it is long on proscription and short on empathy—lots of shoulds, theys, and inevitables, some but few mights, wes, and possibilities.  In this particular instance Order Left Krugman attacks his equally narrow Order Right adversaries over taxes and health as examples of a general indictment of political failure and takes no notice of the free right or the free left.

I admire Krugman as an exponent of his confined view and, when I accept his premises, often agree with him.  Nonetheless, he leaves out or minimizes, in this and other columns the fact that one of the biggest divides we face as a nation is the divide between a relatively united country and a significantly unrepresentative politics.

When I originally read this Column I picked out three points I thought were key to Krugman’s inability to successfully address the situation facing all Americans which he seems to want to do.

Continue reading “DELIBERATION: Jim Turner Dissects Paul Krugman”